Bradford Doolittle of ESPN gave both Boston and Chicago B+ grades for the Crochet deal.
from espn.com:
Boston gets:
LHP Garrett Crochet
Chicago gets:
C Kyle Teel
OF Braden Montgomery
INF Chase Meidroth
RHP Wikelman Gonzalez
Red Sox grade: B+
Let's spin this trade in the best possible light: The Red Sox just obtained a potential 2025 and/or 2026 Cy Young winner without giving up any of their core big league contributors or one of their top three prospects. If Crochet becomes the full version of what he flashed in 2024, no one is going to question this trade.
Yet, the possible range of outcomes for this move is wide because, for one thing, we've only seen Crochet sparkle as a starter for one season and, even then, it was for only 146 innings. And Crochet has an ugly history of injury, one that left him with just 73 big league innings entering last season. Despite that low innings count, Crochet has accrued more than four years of big league service time, meaning he hits free agency after 2026, barring an extension before then. A lot of risk and a lot of prospect value for two controllable seasons.
I still think it was worth it.
As for those 146 frames in 2024, curious about that figure in tandem with Crochet's total of 32 starts, I hit the Stathead tools at Baseball Reference and came up with this: In the history of major league baseball, including all leagues dating back to 1871, there have been 4,325 instances in which a pitcher has started at least 32 games in a season. Garrett Crochet's 146 innings pitched in 2024 was the fewest of any of them. You can look at that in two ways.
The "it's a bug" perspective says that Boston just unloaded four talented minor leaguers for an ace who has never functioned as a true ace in the majors. That's if you define "true ace" as someone who combines elite run prevention with stamina at the game level and durability at the season level.
The "it's a feature" perspective sees Crochet's per-inning dominance in 2024 (35.1% strikeout rate and 2.69 FIP while pitching for the most futile baseball club in the modern history of the sport) as the key here. Because the innings part of it was very much contrived. The White Sox started yanking Crochet after two times through the order or before, beginning in early July. Otherwise, he was on track for an ace-like level of workload.
From the start of the season through the end of June, Crochet averaged 22.1 batters faced over 18 starts. After that, he averaged 14 batters faced over his last 14 outings. He didn't wear down; the White Sox slapped a governor on him. Crochet has built himself up since the time he reached the majors and has the look of someone with seasons of 180-200 innings in his future.
Yes, the injuries are a concern, but show me a pitcher where that's not the case. With his free agency on the horizon, Crochet has a lot to prove in the meantime. The history of White Sox lefties flourishing in Boston is a rich one (yeah, we're talking Chris Sale here), and if Crochet stays healthy, Boston has the rotation ace it badly needed.
The grade above reflects my belief that although the risks in the deal are considerable, the upside is easily worth it. This is a deal any of Boston's competitors would have loved to swing.
White Sox grade: B+
Crochet, as dazzling as he was when he was actually allowed to take the mound in 2024, did not align with Chicago's long-term trajectory. With him an obvious health risk, those mere two controllable seasons meant he'd be hitting free agency (barring a risky extension) at a time when the White Sox might be only just beginning to crawl out of the 121-loss hole they tumbled into last season. The time was right to capitalize on his 2024 breakout.
Thus, the decision to move Crochet was pretty clear and has been for months. The question then comes down to the return, both in terms of the players Chris Getz landed and the players he might have gotten for one of the most valuable players who will move this winter.
Taking the latter first: We don't know! Maybe this was the best package the White Sox could piece together. However, just in terms of the Boston prospect list, if it backed off of Teel, could Marcel Mayer have been in play? Let's assume Roman Anthony was off the table, could Kristian Campbell have been the centerpiece of the deal? The Red Sox are surely thrilled that none of that happened.
As it is, Chicago's return on this is solid from a value-for-value standpoint. Baseball Trade Values
has the trade rated as about even, and that sounds about right. But with an impact talent like Crochet, you have a chance to create surplus value, and it's unclear whether Chicago has done so with this deal. Of course, a lot of that perspective is based on prospect analysis, an uncertain science at best, and this will be a key test of the evaluative prowess of Getz's young regime.
Teel immediately becomes the White Sox's catcher of the future, bumping Edgar Quero from that perch -- but not emphatically. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel describes Teel as "an above-average defender with 20-homer upside and a solid approach" and as "more a good regular at a premium position than a star." A lefty swinger, Teel is a good fit long term in tandem with Quero, whose grades are better with the bat than on defense. Quero is a switch-hitter whose percentages the past two years in the minors have been much better against southpaws. This young duo should complement each other well, perhaps as soon as this coming season.
If Teel isn't the kind of star-in-progress you'd want for a player like Crochet, then perhaps Montgomery is. A broken ankle kept Montgomery from making his pro debut after being taken 12th overall last June out of Texas A&M and might have cost him a few slots in the draft. Toolsy as they come, Montgomery has an 80-grade arm, per McDaniel, that will play well in right field. He has a chance for a plus power-patience combo, but his ability to get the bat on the ball better than he has shown so far will determine his destiny.
Meidroth is a potential glue player with positional versatility and features excellent bat-on-ball skills and approach at the plate. His raw tools are mediocre, per McDaniel, and his upside is limited by a lack of power. Gonzalez has attributes as a starter -- stuff and stamina -- but his control and command very much remain works in progress even though he's now a 40-man roster player. Chances are he'll start off in the majors as a reliever with some leverage upside and, if he can smooth out the rough edges, perhaps can be a rotation candidate down the line.
It's a solid haul. It is a good enough haul? That entirely depends on whether one or two of these four prospects ascend to All-Star status ... and whether we find out if one of Boston's young stars-in-waiting was there to be had.
-- Doolittle
Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread - 2024
