Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[CheckingLineCenter]

I personally would rather have to have someone change their “style” of play then have to get faster, develop their hockey IQ or learn to shoot quicker/harder/more accurate…

It depends

If it’s just reigning in a wild horse I agree. Like Smith to me carries a ton of risk to be like Jack Johnson but has all the things you can’t teach and just needs to chill out and simplify his game (I’m over generalizing but you get the point).

If it’s a guy you need more aggression/engagement/urgency and overhaul of where on the ice they like to play from - I don’t agree at all.

Like I’d much rather take O’Brien and hope he gets stronger and faster than hope Lakovic completely changes his approach to the game.

 

[Andy99]

Yeah I don't think Aitcheson is at all a reach at #11, I think there's a huge group between like #8 and #18 and it wouldn't be surprising for anyone in that range to go higher or lower than their mocked position. I'm just not all that wild about his skillset, his puck skills and hockey IQ are a bit lacking and I don't know that he has the frame to effectively play his style in the NHL.

Pronman posted another article today with including quotes from a bunch of scouts and NHL executives, they had a few blurbs on Aitcheson:







It really shows how massive of a difference that even professional scouts have with these players, so I think it's silly to claim anyone is a reach because of what a few mock drafts are saying. Eklund and Lakovic were also only mentioned in the negative light in that article too:

Again though, lack of hockey IQ is not something you want to select at #11…else you get D. Pouliot lol

 

[Andy99]

It depends

If it’s just reigning in a wild horse I agree. Like Smith to me carries a ton of risk to be like Jack Johnson but has all the things you can’t teach and just needs to chill out and simplify his game (I’m over generalizing but you get the point).

If it’s a guy you need more aggression/engagement/urgency and overhaul of where on the ice they like to play from - I don’t agree at all.

Like I’d much rather take O’Brien and hope he gets stronger and faster than hope Lakovic completely changes his approach to the game.

Of course I’d prefer OBrien but if he’s not there, I’d rather pick someone who has to learn to play with more urgency to reach the NHL than someone who has to learn to skate better or think the game faster/smarter…less likely either of those are going to happen

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Lower IQ feels more manageable for F's in terms of sticking in the league in meaningful roles (hell, just look at Rodrigues).

Guys like Aitcheson and Smith, I'd have serious concerns using a pick that high on a D with questionable hockey sense.

 

[Empoleon8771]

One more note on hockey IQ, O'Brien got the most amount of votes for highest hockey senses in that article as well. He and Schaefer were the only guys to get votes, with O'Brien getting a majority of votes.

That's why I'm still adamant about them trading up a few spots to ensure they get O'Brien. The hockey smarts, playmaking and defense puts him at a pretty safe bottom-6 C floor while he has the elite traits (namely playmaking and PP ability) to pop off as a legit 1C player. There is still work that needs to be done with him, but he's the guy they should be trying as hard as they can to get. Especially since it seems like he's probably not going that much higher than their pick.

 

[Jacob]

Aitcheson led his OHL team in scoring as a d-man. He's got upside.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Again though, lack of hockey IQ is not something you want to select at #11…else you get D. Pouliot lol

The difference between Aitcheson and Pouliot is that Aitcheson's game is substantially less dependent on hockey IQ. Aitcheson can be a low IQ player but still pan out as a #4/5 physical DFD like Gudas. The things that will take him into a NHL role aren't really hockey IQ related, the lack of hockey IQ will be what limits his upside.

I'm not super wild about Aitcheson, but people keep saying that this draft is only going to give complementary players but then scoff at any player with any flaws. Like what are you expecting with that pick? If you want a guy like Aitcheson that has a good hockey IQ, he's going top-5 because every single team in hockey wants that.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

No if about it. Bounty on every Rag possible. Payback for all the Trouba and Rempe cheap shots. Put an elbow through Panarin's jaw. Turn Shesterkin's knee into a wishbone. I want to see Sullivan have an aneurysm complaining to the refs about the cheap shots.

I don't think we need to worry about Panarin. Either they trade him or the new coach's north-south style will render him the next Mikael Granlund (Pittsburgh version).

Whoops, Noel Acciari accidentally fell directly on Shesterkin's leg giving him a season ending injury. Shame.

But they will be teammates! How does that happen.

I am not even remotely considering position in my rankings or wants at all.

You really can't even project if an 18 year old C will even play center at the NHL level even if they do make it.

We may not, but scouts are paid to know this kind of stuff. If NHL amateur scouts cannot detect whether a center in junior, European junior, European senior, NCAA or other league will translate to playing center in the pros, then we have the wrong amateur scouts. Sorry.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Aitcheson led his OHL team in scoring as a d-man. He's got upside.

My concern with that scoring is that how he scored in juniors is not going to fly in the NHL. NHL teams won't let him roam around the ice playing like a rover like he does in the OHL to score points. He will offer that upside by being aggressive and joining the rush, but I think any NHL team will make him reel it way back with how much he roams in the offensive zone.

I do think he has some offensive upside in the NHL, though. His shot is legitimately good and his ability/willingness to join the rush will make him a threat on the rush. I just wouldn't expect anything crazy, maybe like 10 goals and 40 points as his best case scenario.

I think Aitcheson's best case scenario is basically just Trouba 2.0. Trouba fell off hard in recent years, but he has averaged roughly 10 goals and 35 points per 82 games up through age 27 and offers the same pros and cons (Trouba's hockey IQ has also been questioned in the past) as Aitcheson.

 

[Pancakes]

I think Aitcheson's best case scenario is basically just Trouba 2.0. Trouba fell off hard in recent years, but he has averaged roughly 10 goals and 35 points per 82 games up through age 27 and offers the same pros and cons (Trouba's hockey IQ has also been questioned in the past) as Aitcheson.

It would be hard to be too upset with getting Jacob Trouba at #11 tbh. Especially since that's the type of player this team hasn't had in a long time.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

If the Penguins trade up at all, it may be specifically for Porter Martone. Yohe had something today that Dubas has spent a lot of time watching and getting to know Martone.

Dubas likes to get to know all of the top prospects during this time of year but spent additional time with Martone in Buffalo even though he had gotten to know him in Sweden.

“Porter’s different,” Dubas said with a smile.

On the NHL Draft, the Penguins, the combine and Porter Martone: Yohe’s 10 observations

The Penguins find themselves in a very interesting situation with the NHL Draft less than three weeks away.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Empoleon8771]

I can't really see any reasonable scenario where Martone is in a position for them to get. I think they basically have to trade up with Utah for it to happen, but the Penguins don't have what Utah would want for that pick.

In the slimmest of chances that Martone slides to #8, I think Seattle would immediately take him and refuse to trade down.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I can't really see any reasonable scenario where Martone is in a position for them to get. I think they basically have to trade up with Utah for it to happen, but the Penguins don't have what Utah would want for that pick.

In the slimmest of chances that Martone slides to #8, I think Seattle would immediately take him and refuse to trade down.

I could see Martone (and Hagens if teams view him as a winger more than center due to size) sliding with Schaefer and a massive run on centers in the top 8-10. I just don't see any way Martone lasts until #11. I wouldn't be opposed to Dubas moving up for him though as I do like his upside.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I could see Martone (and Hagens if teams view him as a winger more than center due to size) sliding with Schaefer and a massive run on centers in the top 8-10. I just don't see any way Martone lasts until #11. I wouldn't be opposed to Dubas moving up for him though as I do like his upside.

I could see Martone slipping but I just can't see it being lower than #8. I think this top-7 is totally possible:

1. NYI: Schaefer
2. San Jose: Misa
3. Chicago: Frondell
4. Utah: Desnoyers
5. Nashville: Hagens
6. Philly: Martin
7. Boston: O'Brien

That looks totally reasonable to me and it would have Martone available at #8. The issue is I think you're going to have an incredibly tough time convincing Seattle to pass up on Martone there, considering who else they already have in their prospect pool. If they also really like Mrtka, maybe they'd trade down to #11 to take Mrtka instead? But the problem there is both Buffalo and Anaheim also seem like potential Mrtka suitors too, so they'd be gambling on Mrtka lasting to #11.

 

[Gurglesons]

It depends

If it’s just reigning in a wild horse I agree. Like Smith to me carries a ton of risk to be like Jack Johnson but has all the things you can’t teach and just needs to chill out and simplify his game (I’m over generalizing but you get the point).

If it’s a guy you need more aggression/engagement/urgency and overhaul of where on the ice they like to play from - I don’t agree at all.

Like I’d much rather take O’Brien and hope he gets stronger and faster than hope Lakovic completely changes his approach to the game.

I think the reality is whoever we are taking is coming with huge concerns.

I don't really care who we take unless one of the random high upside guys falls loose.

It's why I'm not really going to be too annoyed if they take McQueen over a player like Smith, Mrtka or Aitcheson if those are the options.

Now, if Eklund is available and we are taking one of those guys, I'll be annoyed.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I could see Martone slipping but I just can't see it being lower than #8. I think this top-7 is totally possible:

1. NYI: Schaefer
2. San Jose: Misa
3. Chicago: Frondell
4. Utah: Hagens
5. Nashville: Desnoyers
6. Philly: Martin
7. Boston: O'Brien

That looks totally reasonable to me and it would have Martone available at #8. The issue is I think you're going to have an incredibly tough time convincing Seattle to pass up on Martone there, considering who else they already have in their prospect pool.

I'd add McQueen, Mrtka, Martone into that combo of my expected top 10. Steven Ellis is convinced Aitcheson will be the 2nd dman taken after his convos at the combine, but I just can't see Mrtka's profile of huge mobile RHD lasting to #11. SEA, BUF, ANA all appear to need a RD in their prospect pool or on the current roster. I don't like Aitcheson's average physical tools so I'd prefer Mrtka or high risk pick in Smith over Aitcheson.

 

[Jacob]

Seems like Vancouver wants to trade #15 overall for immediate help. I can see a deal there for Rakell or Rust.

Then we can get whatever is left of those 5-15 guys, maybe a Reschny, Schmidt, Spence or whatever at worst.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Seems like Vancouver wants to trade #15 overall for immediate help. I can see a deal there for Rakell or Rust.

Then we can get whatever is left of those 5-15 guys, maybe a Reschny, Schmidt, Spence or whatever at worst.

They seem to want a 2C for that pick, I've seen Rossi's name rumored a lot there.

I don't know how interested Guerin would be in it, but Rossi to Vancouver, Rakell to Minnesota and pick #15 to Pittsburgh as a base could make a lot of sense.

 

[Pancakes]

I can't really see any reasonable scenario where Martone is in a position for them to get. I think they basically have to trade up with Utah for it to happen, but the Penguins don't have what Utah would want for that pick.

In the slimmest of chances that Martone slides to #8, I think Seattle would immediately take him and refuse to trade down.

I wonder if Chicago or Nashville would entertain trading down. Chicago seems like they have some urgency in terms of helping Bedard and getting him happier.

And Nashville is run by Barry Trotz who seems immensely impatient and seems like the type of GM who probably isn't interested in a lengthy rebuild.

Dunno that we have the assets to get it done though.

 

[SEALBound]

If Vancouver is able to trade Garland out, they could send that return back to the Penguins for Rakell.

I was listening to a couple of podcasts where guys were talking mock drafts and rankings, and one of the guys on one of them said something interesting that I'm still tossing around. This was when they were talking past the #10 spot where the group seems to be well identified. The group all agree that after that, it's a crapshoot and to pick your poison. The interesting comment was: "If you don't know who to take or which way to go, pick the guy that scores a lot in his current league." and then he took Carbanneau. Then he said, in summary, that his view was guys aren't going to be bad scorers in juniors and then suddenly start scoring in the NHL. You want a guy who knows how to put the puck in the net.

That got me thinking about guys like Kindel, Bear, Reschny, and Carbanneau. Every one of them is a point getting. Bear and Carbanneau are 40g scorers. You can even put Schmidt in that group.

"Go get the guy that knows how to score". That just stuck with me for some reason.

 

[Freeptop]

I can't really see any reasonable scenario where Martone is in a position for them to get. I think they basically have to trade up with Utah for it to happen, but the Penguins don't have what Utah would want for that pick.

In the slimmest of chances that Martone slides to #8, I think Seattle would immediately take him and refuse to trade down.

In my imagination, the Pens trade Rakell or Rust along with the #11 pick to Utah for the #4 pick.
Of course, that's solely in my imagination, since the chances of my coming up with anything realistic are basically zero.
(On the other hand, it turns out even my imagination has limits, because even there, the Mammoth hung up the phone when offered Acciari for the fourth overall pick )

 

[Jag68Sid87]

This draft is going to be wild. There will be no such thing as reaches when it comes to the first round of this draft. Guys are going to skyrocket up the board, guys are going to drop like quicksand.

I could see scenarios such as SJ drafting Victor Eklund, a goalie going top 15, somebody dropping past us who is a consensus top 10 guy, Chicago drafting Desnoyers, Utah drafting Martin etc. etc.

And it all starts with Hagens going first overall. Weaker drafts are more fun for fans than strong drafts.

 

[chethejet]

This is a draft where conventional thinking is not as accurate. I think teams have differing views on so many players in the top say 12 that teams may just like a player rated lower but fits what they value.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Then he said, in summary, that his view was guys aren't going to be bad scorers in juniors and then suddenly start scoring in the NHL. You want a guy who knows how to put the puck in the net.

That happens many times every draft. Plenty of things work outside the NHL that don't work in the NHL which is why translatable skills is what scouts try to focus on. Scoring from distance, short side goals (unless you're McDavid), slow pace probably being the three most common culprits for players that can be productive outside the NHL and can't get away with it in the NHL. Those plays simply aren't sustainable methods of production in the NHL.

 

[Peat]

Of course I’d prefer OBrien but if he’s not there, I’d rather pick someone who has to learn to play with more urgency to reach the NHL than someone who has to learn to skate better or think the game faster/smarter…less likely either of those are going to happen

The difference between the two bolded things feels minimal at best.