Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I frankly don't give a shit if a guy's 6'5 if he's constantly attached to serious issues with his skating and may or may not have a chronic back injury. Sorry.

If it was one or the other, maybe, but still probably not. Both should be a nonstarter, regardless of how tall the dude is. Even Bear I'm a little hesitant on because of his Achilles injury.

In any event, this team's not getting a homerun pick this draft. Even a situation where Martone or Hagens ends up in the system, they're not building block type guys imo. Clearly a cut above the rest of the supporting cast players we're talking about but not guys you alter your rebuild plan after landing.

If we're trying to find a gem with a tall, talented forward, Lakovic seems fine. He's got all of McQueen's positive attributes except the physicality, he's a much better skater and without the injury concerns. People desperately want to paint McQueen as potentially the next Tage but Tage can skate, McQueen's nowhere near that level of skating.

 

[HandshakeLine]

How many prospects actually noticeably improve their skating post-draft?

 

[Jared Grayden]

How many prospects actually noticeably improve their skating post-draft?

At least based on tracked blue line data, way less than many believe. Granted, NHL defenses are more robust at defending the neutral zone. It's also a matter that skating is relative to the competition and everybody is trying to improve it so while prospects do improve their skating as they mature, so is the competition.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'm not even a person who needs every guy on the ice to be a Hagelin-esque speedster. But when you constantly have shit like "skating needs serious work to be NHL functional" pinned to your scouting profiles, that's a big problem imo.

Maybe it was an issue related to his injury and that's a correctable thing, but I'll take any number of other guys and be on my way, thanks.

 

[HandshakeLine]

At least based on tracked blue line data, way less than many believe. Granted, NHL defenses are more robust at defending the neutral zone. It's also a matter that skating is relative to the competition and everybody is trying to improve it so while prospects do improve their skating as they mature, so is the competition.

Interesting. But it is that improvement found mostly in the average-to-above average skaters? Or is it across the board? I'm honestly asking here.

I tend to remain skeptical that you can make sub-par skaters "good" skaters, but I really haven't been paying that much attention, so it might be outdated conventional wisdom for all I know.

 

[Empoleon8771]

How many prospects actually noticeably improve their skating post-draft?

I don’t think many prospects have huge jumps in their skating ability, but in O’Brien’s case I don’t think he really needs it. He’s just needs improvements on it, but it’s nowhere close to how say Smith needs to improve his hockey IQ.

He’s also similar to McGroarty in that he’s a very high IQ player so he doesn’t need to be a blazer to move around the ice well.

 

[Andy99]

How many prospects actually noticeably improve their skating post-draft?

Exactly…we have to stay away now and in the future to prospects who have to work on their skating…the Pens need to take the best prospect remaining and that means best combination of skating, hockey IQ and skill…that’s all that matters at this stage

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Also with McQueen, you have a kid who very clearly makes up for glaring shortcomings by just overwhelming his opposition physically at the junior level. That shit ain't gonna happen in the NHL, man. Especially with poor skating and a potentially wonky back.

Even with Martone, I've been a bit worried that he's a guy who gets by a little too much on the "oh I can do this or that because who the f*** is gonna stop me at this level" stuff. McQueen is like that x100.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Interesting. But it is that improvement found mostly in the average-to-above average skaters? Or is it across the board? I'm honestly asking here.

I tend to remain skeptical that you can make sub-par skaters "good" skaters, but I really haven't been paying that much attention, so it might be outdated conventional wisdom for all I know.

I'm certain stride inefficiencies and explosiveness can be worked on, however I'll bet there is unequivocal natural athleticism associated with mobility that many want to ignore. There's a reason certain anatomical traits are common in certain sports due to yielding the best outcomes. I would assume ice skating is no different. I know with track sprinting, hip to knee ratio is critical as stride length is really the determining variable factor for output. From what I've read on some studies with speed skaters, that variable remains the relevant one. Now how much of that converts to ice hockey I couldn't tell you.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the best pro comparable for O’Brien’s upside (so best case scenario) is probably who their assistant GM is right now, Jason Spezza. Spezza was another bigger, righty center with average skating but downright elite hockey IQ and playmaking. Don’t know if O’Brien can end up that good of a player, but the archetype has definitely yielded good NHLers in the past.

That’s actually a part of the reason I’m much more into O’Brien than I am McQueen, I feel like there are more top NHLers in O’Brien’s mold than in McQueen’s mold. With O’Brien, I think you can name a lot of top-6 centers who are great playmakers with average or worse skating over the years. But with McQueen, who are the comparables there? His archetype just seems a lot riskier even without taking into account the injuries. I’d still absolutely gamble on him with their 1st, but he’s pretty firmly behind O’Brien to me.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I don’t think many prospects have huge jumps in their skating ability, but in O’Brien’s case I don’t think he really needs it. He’s just needs improvements on it, but it’s nowhere close to how say Smith needs to improve his hockey IQ.

He’s also similar to McGroarty in that he’s a very high IQ player so he doesn’t need to be a blazer to move around the ice well.

With O'Brien, his pace in everything has to be faster to succeed in the NHL. Doesn't mean he has to improve greatly with skating itself, but his decision making with the puck needs to be more immediate. He can get away with it now in juniors, but he'll be Cody Glass 2.0 in the NHL like that. Plenty of slow skaters succeed in the NHL. Zero slow thinkers do.

 

[Turin]

Skating is all relative. Being fast in a straight line is overrated. How strong are you on the puck and can you get to open ice to create separation? McQueen is a good skater for his size and age, he just needs to improve explosiveness. The only tough question is health for me because I think if he stays healthy even his floor is pretty valuable.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also the NHL combine results just got posted, or at least the top-25 performers for each test. Interesting if you want to check them out:

https://media.nhl.com/site/vasset/public/attachments/2025/06/19060/2025ScoutingCombine_FitnessTestingResults_060725_FINAL.pdf

Horcoff looks like an athletic freak here and Eklund had some really solid showings when you look at the per weight measurements.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Taylor Haase with great reporting as always. Had an exclusive with Dubas at the combine:

Exclusive: Kyle Dubas on Penguins' plans for free agents, trades

The Penguins will hold their pro scouting meetings next week, where the front office and new head coach Dan Muse will sit down over a period of three days and make decisions regarding the Penguins' direction when it comes to free agency and trades.

www.dkpittsburghsports.com

Info about the draft, free agency, trades etc. Relevant to this thread, he views the Rangers 1st as probably landing in the low 20s next year, and a low 20s pick next year is about equivalent to 12 in this draft, so it's a wash to him what the Rangers decide to do.

 

[Pancakes]

One of the nice things about picking at 11th is the teams above the Pens are going to take a lot of these options off the table.

We're probably not sitting at 11 picking between a bunch of guys we want. Like Dubas might be very interested in 5 guys and maybe 4 of them are off the board when it gets to pick 11. Seems likely to me tbh.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Penguins also apparently had dinner with Aitcheson in addition to McQueen and Mrtka and it seems like a lot of people are expecting Aitcheson to be the 2nd defenseman off the board.

Speculation, but I think the top-7 is shaping up to be something close to:

1. Schaefer
2. Misa
3. Frondell
4. Martone
5. Hagens
6. Desnoyers
7. Martin

After #7, I think it gets murky for who Seattle picks. I feel like Eklund or Mrtka would both make sense, but it’s hard to tell what Seattle is thinking.

There’s also the factor of teams potentially trading picks. The Islanders trading back to get Hagens, the Predators trading up to get Misa and the Mammoth trading #4 for a win-now player seem to be some rumors floating out there.

 

[Pancakes]

Mrtka seems like one of the safer picks the Pens could make. A giant who can make an outlet pass? Pretty unlikely that skillset totally busts.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, Mrtka seems like a sure fire bet to carve out a long NHL career. I don't know how effective or impactful he'll be but he seems like he plays a style and has the frame to at least give you a guy who is in the lineup every night.

 

[Jacob]

Sounds like they’re all in love with Martin and he’s going top 6. Sounds like McQueen isn’t hurting himself any either.

McQueen’s got back issues and the concern is warranted but he can gallop for a 6’5” player. Don’t see his skating as an issue.

 

[wej20]

Also the NHL combine results just got posted, or at least the top-25 performers for each test. Interesting if you want to check them out:

https://media.nhl.com/site/vasset/public/attachments/2025/06/19060/2025ScoutingCombine_FitnessTestingResults_060725_FINAL.pdf

Horcoff looks like an athletic freak here and Eklund had some really solid showings when you look at the per weight measurements

Horcoff seems like the type who goes very early in the 2nd round. Size, good athlete, physical, strong defensively and Dad had a long NHL career.

 

[Jacob]

Forgot about Mans Goos.

How is 6’6” Mrtka not top 25 in wingspan? Is he a T-Rex?

Boumedienne seemed to rest pretty well.

If we had a later pick I’d be all over Cootes.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's fine, Martone's gonna fall to 8th and the Pens are gonna trade a 2nd to move up and snag the guy.

I wonder what the Isles do. I can't imagine trading out of a gifted 1st overall pick tbh. Though the pressure is there for them to trade back a few spots and snag the hometown kid in Hagens.

Is Hagens++ worth giving up Schaefer or Misa? In this kinda draft, it's a lot more debatable than losing out on someone like a Bedard or Celebrini.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sounds like they’re all in love with Martin and he’s going top 6. Sounds like McQueen isn’t hurting himself any either.

McQueen’s got back issues and the concern is warranted but he can gallop for a 6’5” player. Don’t see his skating as an issue.

Yeah from everything I’ve read, I think there is no way Martin goes later than #7. You’ve seen him linked to all of the teams picking #4-#7, I think Martin had dinners with all of those teams.

I have him mocked to Boston right now, but I think Philly takes him at #6 if he lasts to that point. I’m actually a bit curious to see if Desnoyers slides a bit, he wasn’t participating in the events due to injuries but he also seemed to have no dinners with any teams.

 

[Jacob]

Mrtka seems like one of the safer picks the Pens could make. A giant who can make an outlet pass? Pretty unlikely that skillset totally busts.

Seems like there’s some upside too, being a mid-07 birthday and coming over and having to adapt on the fly to the WHL, on a bad team no less. And despite all that still looked pretty good and climbed up the rankings from about December on.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This isn’t a full list, but from the last update:

NYI: Schaefer, Misa, Hagens
SJ: Schaefer, Misa
CHI: nobody
UT: Hagens, Martin, Martone, Misa, O'Brien
NSH: Martin, Misa
PHI: O'Brien, Martone, Martin
BOS: Martin
PIT: Mrtka, McQueen

This doesn’t include Aitcheson with the Penguins at minimum, but no one seems to know if Desnoyers had any dinners with teams while Martin had a ton.