Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[SEALBound]

Did you think Hagens improved as the season progressed? I hear mixed opinions on him being stagnant through the year while other opinions are he showed significant off puck improvement and more effort to get to high danger scoring areas.
Leonard for all the hype about being NHL ready was very underwhelming for Washington. Makes me skeptical on how NHL ready some NCAA prospects really are, not that I expect or even want Hagens in the NHL soon.

I think he's in a rough spot right now because he's being talked about in a top 5 pick conversation so immediately it turns attention to recent NCAA guys as the expectation. I think if you're expecting Celebrini, Fantilli, or even Cooley, you might be disappointed. But that doesn't mean Hagens is a bad player, it's just that the expectations may be a bit off based on it being a weak draft. I think Leonard would be a decent expectation equivalent.

I think with the correct development and push, he could become a top 6 center in the NHL. At 19-20, no. This isn't a "step into the NHL" player. I think this draft only has two of those. And even then, it's depth/support roles for them until they mature.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

what is funny is Hagens is way better than Cooley was at the NTDP and thus the draft

Next 12 months and on could show he should’ve gone 1OA or is an example of peaking slightly too early

 

[Jared Grayden]

I think he's in a rough spot right now because he's being talked about in a top 5 pick conversation so immediately it turns attention to recent NCAA guys as the expectation. I think if you're expecting Celebrini, Fantilli, or even Cooley, you might be disappointed. But that doesn't mean Hagens is a bad player, it's just that the expectations may be a bit off based on it being a weak draft. I think Leonard would be a decent expectation equivalent.

I think with the correct development and push, he could become a top 6 center in the NHL. At 19-20, no. This isn't a "step into the NHL" player. I think this draft only has two of those. And even then, it's depth/support roles for them until they mature.

The production compares to Beniers though they are quite different players. Beniers hasn't been poor, but hasn't distinguished himself as a #2 pick himself either. I don't watch almost any NCAA so I'm more familiar with CHL players. My opinion on Hagens from the U-20s was that he is impressively productive for a player that is not high visibility for long stretches of play. Quite different from how I viewed Eklund in that tournament as he was very visible even when not producing. Hagens seems skilled enough to take advantage of his opportunities even if he doesn't control play all that well. I know some question if he'll be a winger or center. If he's perceived as a winger he'll drop. I don't believe almost any prospect should be in the NHL on their draft year with all the options available to them at this time.

 

[Gurglesons]

James Hagens is going to be the best forward to come out of the top 5 in the draft and the only reason he's not getting picked 1/2 is because he didn't mesh with his college linemates and he's 5'10-11.

 

[Gurglesons]

I am 100% here for the Islanders taking him first overall. Not saying it'll happen, I just want it to for a pure entertainment perspective. I feel like it'd set us on a true chaos path for the draft. Plus, dude is literally running his own PR campaign for it in his pre-draft media interviews. He's like begging the Islanders unabashedly.

I would take him if I'm the Islanders.

You're probably giving up the better player in Schaefer, but I don't think any forward is comparable to Hagens in terms of upside and with the Isles connection, I could see Hagens stepping in within a year and helping revitalize that market with Barzal and Horvat around him.

 

[Ugene Magic]

what is funny is Hagens is way better than Cooley was at the NTDP and thus the draft

Next 12 months and on could show he should’ve gone 1OA or is an example of peaking slightly too early

This could be said about the entire top 5.

The consensus has been known to be all wrong before.

Regardless, these lower top 10 changing deck chairs has no recourse on pick #11. That's more to do with later picks in the 6 to 10 range reaching more than the top 5.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

This could be said about the entire top 5.

The consensus has been known to be all wrong before.

Regardless, these lower top 10 changing deck chairs has no recourse on pick #11. That's more to do with later picks in the 6 to 10 range reaching more than the top 5.

Oh our bad for discussing draft prospect James Hagens in the draft thread. We’ll be better going forward.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Oh our bad for discussing draft prospect James Hagens in the draft thread. We’ll be better going forward.

It has nothing to do with that aspect, just that I don't think Hagens dropping has an effect at #11.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's also silly to say that changes in picks higher won't have an impact on pick #11. Teams do not all share the same exact draft list, it's entirely possible that someone like O'Brien would be Boston's pick at #7 without Hagens being available at #7 but would slide to #11 if Hagens was available at #7. What Utah does at #4 could have a significant impact on how the draft goes, whether they take Martone or a center there could have cascading effects on what Nashville and Boston may want to do with their picks.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

It has nothing to do with that aspect, just that I don't think Hagens dropping has an effect at #11.

Shortsighted. It’s a chain reaction.

Say the Flyers plan to have O’Brien at the top of their board, but suddenly Hagens falls to them. But then none of Boston, Seattle, Buffalo, or Anaheim have JOB at the top of their board. Suddenly he’s there at 11 when he was about to get taken at 6th.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Like last year.. many think Buium was the pick if Sennecke was off the board for the Ducks.

So in all likelihood he was the 2nd name at 3rd overall. Ends up going 12th.

 

[Ugene Magic]

It's also silly to say that changes in picks higher won't have an impact on pick #11. Teams do not all share the same exact draft list, it's entirely possible that someone like O'Brien would be Boston's pick at #7 without Hagens being available at #7 but would slide to #11 if Hagens was available at #7. What Utah does at #4 could have a significant impact on how the draft goes, whether they take Martone or a center there could have cascading effects on what Nashville and Boston may want to do with their picks.

Jesus, people have a hardon for a consensus going completely off the rails because, that's what you are implying.

Pick #7 isn't a top 5 pick.... but that's where (In the upper 6 to 10 reaching) gets you a consensus top 10 pick at #11.

Top 5 isn't changing the deck enough. There needs to be more reaching.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

 

[Ugene Magic]

View attachment 1042671

Or I was right in the first place and people are arguing to just argue.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Or I was right in the first place and people are arguing to just argue.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Every team has their own draft board based on who they're biased for and who they have scouted. There is no such thing as a "consensus draft ranking", it's just McKenzie interviewing like 10 scouts to get their insights for their rankings. Teams aren't looking at Bobby Mac's draft rankings to make their picks, they're going with their own scouts who have been scouting the prospects they like.

We see it in the draft every single year when guys like Senecke go at #3 despite not being a top-10 pick in McKenzie's mock draft. Because of who Anaheim scouted and what they were looking for, Senecke was the #1 guy on their board available at #3. You don't even need to suggest something as unlikely as that to show how someone like Hagens sliding could have an impact on pick #11.

Let's just use a simple example, let's say that Boston is picking at #7 while Seattle has Martin as the #1 guy and Eklund as the #2 guy at #8. If Boston picks Martin at #7, that means Seattle picks Eklund at #8. If Boston takes McQueen at #7, Seattle takes Martin at #8 and Eklund slides. If Buffalo and Anaheim don't have Eklund high in their draft rankings, look he's sliding to #11 at the Penguins pick.

Let's do an example with how Hagens sliding could impact the draft. Let's say that Nashville has Hagens at #1 and O'Brien at #2, Boston has Martin at #1 and O'Brien at #2 and the other teams don't have O'Brien at #1. If Hagens goes to Utah at #4, that means Nashville would take O'Brien at #5 as the BPA. If Hagens gets by Utah and goes to #5, Nashville would take Hagens instead and O'Brien would slide. At #6, if Philly takes Martin then O'Brien would go to Boston at #7. But if Philly instead takes Desnoyers at #6, Boston would go with the #1 guy on their board in Martin and take Martin at #7. This has O'Brien sliding to #8.

I don't even know how you'd begin to argue that someone like Hagens sliding wouldn't have an impact on the draft. No one actually knows these teams draft rankings and a ton of guys in the 3-10 range are incredibly close to each other, so it's entirely possible something like that happens with the draft.

 

[Ugene Magic]

View attachment 1042672

 

[lokomotiv15]

James Hagens is going to be the best forward to come out of the top 5 in the draft and the only reason he's not getting picked 1/2 is because he didn't mesh with his college linemates and he's 5'10-11.

I know it seems like decades ago now, but Hagens was an absolute stud playing at the WJC. To the point where I was shocked that he wasn't being talked about more as an impact forward and pushing for that #1 draft spot with his performance there as a draft eligible. I know different usage and different coaching, but against similar competition he looked a head above most of the draft eligibles this year and looked just as good or better than a Fantilli or a Shane Wright in his d+1 year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I don't get why it is so forgotten that Hagens put up 9 points in 7 games at the U-20 WJC in his draft year. Misa didn't even make Canada's U-20 WJC team while Hagens dominated for USA as USA won.

I think both Eklund and Hagens fall in the category of sliding due to their size and being way better players than where their draft picks will end up. I don't know why some people make a big deal out of Martin having a great U-18 WJCs in April/May but ignore that Hagens and Eklund were great at the U-20 WJCs in December/January against better competition.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Like last year.. many think Buium was the pick if Sennecke was off the board for the Ducks.

So in all likelihood he was the 2nd name at 3rd overall. Ends up going 12th.

There are going to be some surprising picks, reaches and falls. Happens every year. You just hope one of your guys at 11 is the one that falls and not the other way around - All the players you thought were plus value at 11 the teams above felt the same. Just have to wait and see.

 

[The Old Master]

Every team has their own draft board based on who they're biased for and who they have scouted. There is no such thing as a "consensus draft ranking", it's just McKenzie interviewing like 10 scouts to get their insights for their rankings. Teams aren't looking at Bobby Mac's draft rankings to make their picks, they're going with their own scouts who have been scouting the prospects they like.

We see it in the draft every single year when guys like Senecke go at #3 despite not being a top-10 pick in McKenzie's mock draft. Because of who Anaheim scouted and what they were looking for, Senecke was the #1 guy on their board available at #3. You don't even need to suggest something as unlikely as that to show how someone like Hagens sliding could have an impact on pick #11.

Let's just use a simple example, let's say that Boston is picking at #7 while Seattle has Martin as the #1 guy and Eklund as the #2 guy at #8. If Boston picks Martin at #7, that means Seattle picks Eklund at #8. If Boston takes McQueen at #7, Seattle takes Martin at #8 and Eklund slides. If Buffalo and Anaheim don't have Eklund high in their draft rankings, look he's sliding to #11 at the Penguins pick.

Let's do an example with how Hagens sliding could impact the draft. Let's say that Nashville has Hagens at #1 and O'Brien at #2, Boston has Martin at #1 and O'Brien at #2 and the other teams don't have O'Brien at #1. If Hagens goes to Utah at #4, that means Nashville would take O'Brien at #5 as the BPA. If Hagens gets by Utah and goes to #5, Nashville would take Hagens instead and O'Brien would slide. At #6, if Philly takes Martin then O'Brien would go to Boston at #7. But if Philly instead takes Desnoyers at #6, Boston would go with the #1 guy on their board in Martin and take Martin at #7. This has O'Brien sliding to #8.

I don't even know how you'd begin to argue that someone like Hagens sliding wouldn't have an impact on the draft. No one actually knows these teams draft rankings and a ton of guys in the 3-10 range are incredibly close to each other, so it's entirely possible something like that happens with the draft.

well put. my fingers are gassed just looking at it. instead of making all my short posts look bad can you give us the clif notes?

 

[Jesse]

Did you think Hagens improved as the season progressed? I hear mixed opinions on him being stagnant through the year while other opinions are he showed significant off puck improvement and more effort to get to high danger scoring areas.
Leonard for all the hype about being NHL ready was very underwhelming for Washington. Makes me skeptical on how NHL ready some NCAA prospects really are, not that I expect or even want Hagens in the NHL soon.

This is an extremely difficult question. And it makes it harder that I watched his season in reverse, with the most recent games first. I do think he navigated open water a little better as the year went on. Seemed to find a level of comfort with working through traffic without the puck and making himself available (For instance, working against the grain to remove himself from chaotic situations and then sneak back in backdoor or outside of the D's view, definitely improved here down the stretch and into the playoff). He's got a good shot. I think through the later portion of the year he was getting more looks with in a variety of positions. That being said, I don't think he made huge gains with regards to zone entries or creativity within possession. I think he was the best skating forward in this class front to back when the year started and while that's still the case for me I would loved to see more dynamic skill tied to that skating. Using the legs to create time and space with the puck on his stick. Chaining together skating and hands to showcase a more complete set of escapability with the puck.

 

[chethejet]

One thing is the top 10 will be center driven and that is why winning a bunch of meaningless games was just not the best thing. Now lottery did give them a little punch gut but still 7 or 8 is a far better position than 11 in this draft.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Every team has their own draft board based on who they're biased for and who they have scouted. There is no such thing as a "consensus draft ranking", it's just McKenzie interviewing like 10 scouts to get their insights for their rankings. Teams aren't looking at Bobby Mac's draft rankings to make their picks, they're going with their own scouts who have been scouting the prospects they like.

We see it in the draft every single year when guys like Senecke go at #3 despite not being a top-10 pick in McKenzie's mock draft. Because of who Anaheim scouted and what they were looking for, Senecke was the #1 guy on their board available at #3. You don't even need to suggest something as unlikely as that to show how someone like Hagens sliding could have an impact on pick #11.

Let's just use a simple example, let's say that Boston is picking at #7 while Seattle has Martin as the #1 guy and Eklund as the #2 guy at #8. If Boston picks Martin at #7, that means Seattle picks Eklund at #8. If Boston takes McQueen at #7, Seattle takes Martin at #8 and Eklund slides. If Buffalo and Anaheim don't have Eklund high in their draft rankings, look he's sliding to #11 at the Penguins pick.

The top 5 stayed intact other than that one move. I'm sure them taking Sennecke had the rest of the field wanting Buium - D-man, but it wasn't the case. It took more reaches and moves outside the top 5 that had no correlations to the Sennecke and Buium change. It's as if nobody had Buium in their top 10, and more D-men went in the later top 10. Yakemchuk also had a huge rise from #15 to #7, another D-man.

McKensies ranking:

1. Celebrini taken #1
2. Dimedov taken #5
3. Buium taken #12
4. Levshunov taken #2
5. Lidstrom taken #4
6. Parekh taken #9
7. Catton taken #8
8. Dickinson taken #11
9. Iginla taken #6
10. Silayev taken #10
11. Helenius taken #14
12. Iserman taken #20
13. Sennecke taken #3
14. Nygard taken #15
15. Yakemchuk taken #7


To unconfuse people.. The actual draft order.

1. Celebrini - C
2. Levshunov - D
3. Sennecke - RW From #13
4. Lidstrom - C
5. Demidov - RW
6. Iginla - C
7. Yakemchuk - D From #15
8. Catton - C
9. Parekh - D
10. Silayev - D
11. Dickinson - D From #8
12. Buium - D
13. Luchanko - C From #21
14. Helenius - C
15 Brandsegg-Nygard - RW

A draft dominated by centers and D-men. Centers - 6/D-men - 6/ RW's - 3

The Pens pick was #14 had they kept it.

At #14 you'd have Hage/Helenius/ Eiserman all ranked out of the top 10.

Who do you take?

Each draft is different.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

The top 5 stayed intact other than that one move. I'm sure them taking Sennecke had the rest of the field wanting Buium - D-man, but it wasn't the case. It took more reaches and moves outside the top 5 that had no correlations to the Sennecke and Buium change. It's as if nobody had Buium in their top 10, and more D-men went in the later top 10. Yakemchuk also had a huge rise from #15 to #7, another D-man.

McKensies ranking:

1. Celebrini taken #1
2. Dimedov taken #5
3. Buium taken #12
4. Levshunov taken #2
5. Lidstrom taken #4
6. Parekh taken #9
7. Catton taken #8
8. Dickinson taken #11
9. Iginla taken #6
10. Silayev taken #10
11. Helenius taken #14
12. Iserman taken #20
13. Sennecke taken #3
14. Nygard taken #15
15. Yakemchuk taken #7


To unconfuse people.. The actual draft order.

1. Celebrini - C
2. Levshunov - D
3. Sennecke - RW From #13
4. Lidstrom - C
5. Demidov - RW
6. Iginla - C
7. Yakemchuk - D From #15
8. Catton - C
9. Parekh - D
10. Silayev - D
11. Dickinson - D From #8
12. Buium - D
13. Luchanko - C From #21
14. Helenius - C
15 Brandsegg-Nygard - RW

A draft dominated by centers and D-men. Centers - 6/D-men - 6/ RW's - 3

The Pens pick was #14 had they kept it.

At #14 you'd have Hage/Helenius/ Eiserman all ranked out of the top 10.

Who do you take?

Each draft is different.

Bob McKenzie's Final NHL Draft Ranking: Many attractive and diverse options after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

This year’s final ranking, from No. 2 on, is much more challenging to assemble because of two factors - many more divergent opinions and variance on even the top 10 picks and two Russians forcing their way into the conversation in the upper echelon.

www.tsn.ca

Idk what ranking u are using but it is not accurate to McKenzie’s final poll.

Silayev polled at 4th, was drafted 10th.

Dickinson 6th, drafted 11th

Buium 7th, drafted 12th

Helenius polled top 10 (9th) on the final list.