Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[CheckingLineCenter]

What does everyone think of Cullen Potter?

He’s high floor high reward imo. Right now I see him more as a Grabner-esque player where he can score 20-30 goals and can absolutely fly but is “one and done” off the rush and doesn’t play well with teammates so you bury him on the 3rd line. and just kinda let him play hero ball off the rush.

But I think he’s got some boom potential too. Dude is seriously talented. He could be kinda like a lefty Brayden Point imo. Small but competitive goal scoring C.

Hard for me to see a guy with that skating outright busting but I guess it could happen.

I think if you like him the question is just about his brain and if things slow down for him. I’d take him very high because even if he’s not a top line player I think he’s going to be a high energy utility forward that can chip in offense. I think there’s a chance he falls to the 30-35 range though.

 

[chethejet]

If Dubas knew Sullivan was toast, wonder if he could have told the Rangers, I keep him unless we make a deal for that pick and draft certainty. Still think Dubas will be active here and move up for his guy.

 

[The Old Master]

it seems like there will be a rather large group of players where we are picking that could turn out to be very good players, but all of them have warts and could easily end up as nothing. and if history means anything it's not going to end well for us.
edit; jaded! you did this to me.

 

[Jesse]

I think there’s no way O’Brien gets to 11

@Jesse care to opine why you made that tweet? You think he’s getting past the top 10?

On the ever-growing list of late-risers, his name is absent. He doesn't seem to have the same buzz around his name as a few guys. I think there's a chance he gets bumped out.

 

[eXile3]

it seems like there will be a rather large group of players where we are picking that could turn out to be very good players, but all of them have warts and could easily end up as nothing. and if history means anything it's not going to end well for us.
edit; jaded! you did this to me.

It’s playing out like 2012. Some wins but not a lot of elite talent.

 

[The Old Master]

It’s playing out like 2012. Some wins but not a lot of elite talent.

normally I'm a pick as high as you can guy. but if the guy we want isn't there then moving back a few spots for another high pick is the way to go. imo

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

On the ever-growing list of late-risers, his name is absent. He doesn't seem to have the same buzz around his name as a few guys. I think there's a chance he gets bumped out.

? He jumped from 9th to 7th on Bob’s May poll at the lottery.

 

[Jesse]

He’s high floor high reward imo. Right now I see him more as a Grabner-esque player where he can score 20-30 goals and can absolutely fly but is “one and done” off the rush and doesn’t play well with teammates so you bury him on the 3rd line. and just kinda let him play hero ball off the rush.

But I think he’s got some boom potential too. Dude is seriously talented. He could be kinda like a lefty Brayden Point imo. Small but competitive goal scoring C.

Hard for me to see a guy with that skating outright busting but I guess it could happen.

I think if you like him the question is just about his brain and if things slow down for him. I’d take him very high because even if he’s not a top line player I think he’s going to be a high energy utility forward that can chip in offense. I think there’s a chance he falls to the 30-35 range though.

I don't see the high floor part, personally. I would agree that he's high reward on his ceiling, but he's not dynamic enough for me. His speed is the only tool he reliably uses to gain separation against defenders. I don't see the creativity on entries outside of skating and I don't think he's big enough or talented enough to live off of that at future levels. I feel like he goes through long stretches of not impacting games at all.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I don't see the high floor part, personally. I would agree that he's high reward on his ceiling, but he's not dynamic enough for me. His speed is the only tool he reliably uses to gain separation against defenders. I don't see the creativity on entries outside of skating and I don't think he's big enough or talented enough to live off of that at future levels. I feel like he goes through long stretches of not impacting games at all.

Yeah I think the skating makes his downside case like a 300 game roster guy. Hence high floor.

 

[Jesse]

? He jumped from 9th to 7th on Bob’s May poll at the lottery.

And he's 11th on Button's.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

And he's 11th on Button's.

I am not a poster who hates on Button’s lists…. but since when have his lists ever been a decent predictor of the draft order or even what the pro scouts are thinking?

I would also say O’Brien is one of the 2nd half’s biggest risers. He’s gone from 14th preseason to 7th currently. CS put him above Martone.

 

[Jesse]

I am not a poster who hates on Button’s lists…. but since when have his lists ever been a decent predictor of the draft order or even what the pro scouts are thinking?

I would also say O’Brien is one of the 2nd half’s biggest risers. He’s gone from 14th preseason to 7th currently. CS put him above Martone.

Eh, maybe I'm wrong. I just don't hear his name in the same buzz-related discussions as I hear re: Martin, Reschny, or even Bear in light of the new information regarding his injury status. I don't disagree that O'Brien was a riser from mid-season to end of season. I think his rise has been bumped by a few other guys who dominated the U18's. Someone has to slide out with some of these other names popping in. I'm feeling like he's the one with the most potential to slip a spot or two to 11.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I think there is definitely a scenario where O'Brien slides to #11, but I think there's also a scenario that Nashville takes him at #5. It's definitely not impossible but I wouldn't be betting on it. I think an estimate of something like #7 to Boston is a good median for all of his draft outcomes.

A big wildcard in how the top-10 goes is with who Utah takes at #4 IMO. I think the draft can go a lot of different directions depending on whether they take Desnoyers, Hagens or Martone at #4. If McQueen is healthy and Utah takes him at #4, that makes things even more complicated.

Eh, maybe I'm wrong. I just don't hear his name in the same buzz-related discussions as I hear re: Martin, Reschny, or even Bear in light of the new information regarding his injury status. I don't disagree that O'Brien was a riser from mid-season to end of season. I think his rise has been bumped by a few other guys who dominated the U18's. Someone has to slide out with some of these other names popping in. I'm feeling like he's the one with the most potential to slip a spot or two to 11.

Tbh I'm still feeling like Hagens is the biggest potential slider in this draft, which is ludicrous because he shouldn't be sliding.

 

[Jesse]

Tbh I'm still feeling like Hagens is the biggest potential slider in this draft, which is ludicrous because he shouldn't be sliding.

I am 100% here for the Islanders taking him first overall. Not saying it'll happen, I just want it to for a pure entertainment perspective. I feel like it'd set us on a true chaos path for the draft. Plus, dude is literally running his own PR campaign for it in his pre-draft media interviews. He's like begging the Islanders unabashedly.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Eh, maybe I'm wrong. I just don't hear his name in the same buzz-related discussions as I hear re: Martin, Reschny, or even Bear in light of the new information regarding his injury status. I don't disagree that O'Brien was a riser from mid-season to end of season. I think his rise has been bumped by a few other guys who dominated the U18's. Someone has to slide out with some of these other names popping in. I'm feeling like he's the one with the most potential to slip a spot or two to 11.

I think he just hasn’t played

I’m guessing Hagens and Smith are the big sliders currently in McKenzie’s t10. Eklund may fall a tad and I’ll keep an eye on Martone.

Just think there’s zero chance a 6’2 responsible RHC from the OHL gets to 11th.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

it seems like there will be a rather large group of players where we are picking that could turn out to be very good players, but all of them have warts and could easily end up as nothing. and if history means anything it's not going to end well for us.
edit; jaded! you did this to me.

I feel like this is an accurate description of the range from like 5-20 lmao

 

[The Old Master]

I feel like this is an accurate description of the range from like 5-20 lmao

all the more reason to hope your scouting department needs to be on top of their game.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

all the more reason to hope your scouting department needs to be on top of their game.

100% creates opportunities to get more value out of a later 1st

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Another month, man. Jeez.

 

[The Old Master]

100% creates opportunities to get more value out of a later 1st

or why you need to trade up and get your guy, instead of waiting to see who falls to you.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Speaking of Hagens:

Why James Hagens dropped down NHL draft boards, and the Islanders’ unique predicament at No. 1

Despite a good draft season, Hagens isn't in the conversation for the best player in the 2025 class anymore.

www.nytimes.com

Some interesting quotes:

There are a few variables. While he played very well this season, evaluators have minor questions about how Hagens’ game would translate to the NHL. At BC, he had stretches this season where he was hard to notice at even strength and had too many games where he was invisible. He struggled to consistently get to the inside against bigger college defenders. He also struggled to score goals this season.

At barely 5-foot-11 and without a physical edge, his profile becomes harder to project as a top-line NHL center who you can win with. His compete level is decent and looked good at the World Juniors, but I wouldn’t call it a standout trait.

If Hagens turns into the most offensively productive player from this class, I wouldn’t be shocked, and frankly, I would call him the most purely talented offensive player in the class. But winning in the NHL is about more than scoring. Several players — such as Misa and potentially Anton Frondell, Desnoyers or Martone — may go ahead of Hagens simply because the profile they project as (bigger, two-way players, most as centers) is more valuable to NHL teams than a dynamic, scoring small player who may or may not be an NHL center.

Right now, there’s one player most teams believe is fitting of the No. 1 pick: Matthew Schaefer. A minority leans toward Misa, but that is the extent of it. Frankly, from the scouts I’ve talked to, there are as many who feel Hagens isn’t a top-five player in the draft than who feel there’s a meaningful challenger to Schaefer at No. 1.

I still feel like Hagens to Nashville at #5 is the best bet for him, which would probably be good for the Penguins if you're hoping O'Brien slides to #11. I think you probably need the top-10 to be something like this for that to happen:

1. Schaefer
2. Misa
3. Frondell
4. Martone
5. Hagens
6. Desnoyers
7. Martin
8. Eklund
9. Mrtka
10. McQueen

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think Celebrini and Fantilli having historically incredible seasons back to back broke peoples brains on expectations for Hagens

Was he slightly disappointing this year? Yes. Does he still have top line upside? Yes.

 

[Jesse]

I think Celebrini and Fantilli having historically incredible seasons back to back broke peoples brains on expectations for Hagens

Was he slightly disappointing this year? Yes. Does he still have top line upside? Yes.

Excellent point. And It sounds ridiculous to say that someones D+1 year is important (because which D+1 year isn't important?) but environmentally speaking, next year is huge for Hagens. I feel like it really hurt him this year playing alongside two other forwards that are extremely strong in possession. It made him deferential, for lack of a better term? I think the tape I'm dropping this week shows some of that. He'd cut through the NZ so well, use that beautiful skating to create space, and then immediately defer at the blueline. I just feel like his work in the OZ was sort of incomplete. Leonard is a dominant figure for that team in possession. So much of what happens at 5v5 happens vis a vis him. It put Hagens in this weird scenario where he sort of became a sidecar to his linemates. Was he very good at that? Absolutely. 100%. And you can fundamentally see the elements in there that give him that top line upside. But at the same time I kinda feel like that environment robbed him of a few of his own manifest destiny.

 

[SEALBound]

It would be interesting to speak to a scout/GM and ask them how much movement there is in their lists this time of year. Obviously playoffs and international tournaments can alter things but I have to imagine at this point the scouts pretty well have things figured out in terms of collecting data. We obviously hear a lot of buzz about Martin but does that buzz mean he's moving up on everyone's lists? And if so, how much?

I think to get JOB at 11, we have to see several guys "we" have in that 10-20 range go "surprisingly" early. Like McQueen, Reschny, Smith, Aitcheson, Bear, etc. I imagine there will be a Sennecke in this group. As I've said, i think after 4, you have 7-8 guys that could all go 5-11. At a point, it's "pick your poison". I think we end up see a lot of drafting based on needs.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Excellent point. And It sounds ridiculous to say that someones D+1 year is important (because which D+1 year isn't important?) but environmentally speaking, next year is huge for Hagens. I feel like it really hurt him this year playing alongside two other forwards that are extremely strong in possession. It made him deferential, for lack of a better term? I think the tape I'm dropping this week shows some of that. He'd cut through the NZ so well, use that beautiful skating to create space, and then immediately defer at the blueline. I just feel like his work in the OZ was sort of incomplete. Leonard is a dominant figure for that team in possession. So much of what happens at 5v5 happens vis a vis him. It put Hagens in this weird scenario where he sort of became a sidecar to his linemates. Was he very good at that? Absolutely. 100%. And you can fundamentally see the elements in there that give him that top line upside. But at the same time I kinda feel like that environment robbed him of a few of his own manifest destiny.

Did you think Hagens improved as the season progressed? I hear mixed opinions on him being stagnant through the year while other opinions are he showed significant off puck improvement and more effort to get to high danger scoring areas.
Leonard for all the hype about being NHL ready was very underwhelming for Washington. Makes me skeptical on how NHL ready some NCAA prospects really are, not that I expect or even want Hagens in the NHL soon.