Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[Empoleon8771]

It would seem that as of now, for teams picking 11 and up that it's a foregone conclusion that Martin and O'Brien are both gone by 10, even with OBs so-so playoffs and high % of powerplay points. Offensive numbers still compare well vs contemporaries and think he actually might have been a by-product of too many cooks in the kitchen a few times when it came to farming 5v5 points. A lot of AM scouts are in love with Martin's game, to the point of saying he's a good top 10 pick in any draft.

Eklund is the more realistic option, but would love either of those 2 to still be there. Mrtka a solid option, but also has more teams high on him than people would think and wouldn't be surprised to see him gone by 10.

Not my opinions, but maybe I should be checking out Mrtka a bit more.

I don't doubt that both O'Brien and Martin are very likely top-10 picks that will be gone by #11, but I also think it's worth asking if all of these "forgone conclusion top-10 picks" are actually going to be top-10 picks. The reason I mention that is that it's pretty rare that the top-10 players in mock drafts end up the top-10 players picked in the draft, even McKenzie tends to only go 6/10 or 7/10.

Even with the hype around Martin right now, it has really only showed up in Button's mock draft that has him at #6. McKenzie's list from like 2 weeks ago had Martin at #12, Central Scouting had him as the #11 ranked NA skater a month ago and Elite Prospects had him at #18 about a month ago as well. The "vibes" top-10 I have right now is:

1. NYI: Schaefer
2. San Jose: Misa
3. Chicago: Frondell
4. Utah: Martone
5. Nashville: Hagens
6. Philly: Desnoyers
7. Boston: O'Brien
8. Seattle: Martin
9. Buffalo: Mrtka
10. Anaheim: McQueen

But of this list, you're going to have probably 2 or 3 of these guys not going in the top-10 and others (Eklund and Lakovic stick out as potential risers) replacing them. Mrtka is an obvious guy to fall out, but beyond him, my next best guess is probably Martin. Now if McQueen's physicals come back completely f***ed, he's falling way outside of the top-10, but he's 100% going top-10 if his physicals are fine.

I can see Hagens sliding as well, where it would be something like:

-Nashville takes O'Brien
-Boston takes McQueen since they want a center and O'Brien is gone
-Anaheim takes Lakovic over Hagens since they want to add size
-Other picks don't change and Hagens falls out of the top-10

But I can't realistically see Boston passing on a Boston College center if he makes it to #7.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I was very unimpressed with Pickering's mobility in the NHL. Thought he struggled to defend in space. His NHL edge data sample is not encouraging either. Mrtka mobility looked very impressive in the U-18s. Can't say the same I'm about the rest of his game.

He’s way more agile than Mrtka and a pretty good skater overall. He just stops his feet too much.

If you watch Pickering at the U18 or rush the puck at the same level, imo he’s the better skater at the draft.

 

[Jared Grayden]

He’s way more agile than Mrtka and a pretty good skater overall. He just stops his feet too much.

If you watch Pickering at the U18 or rush the puck at the same level, imo he’s the better skater at the draft.

Pickering might have been at 18. He was lacking for the NHL level this year. I don't think any attribute is more subjective than skating so I almost exclusively trust the data on it. Though admittedly moving laterally is not really quantifiable.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Another thing to consider with the draft is what impact the Rangers pick could have on the Penguins draft plans. It's all speculation right now, but Yohe posted that his guess right now is the Rangers give up the #12 pick this year and he wondered about the Penguins possibly trying to trade up using that pick. If you go based purely on the value of draft picks here, #5 and #26 (658.2) for #11 and #12 (663.4) with Nashville is essentially dead even in value, with the value only being slanted towards the Predators by a late 4th. If you use PuckPedia's Perri Pick value chart, it's only slanted towards the Penguins by a mid 3rd or swapping picks #26 for #30.

I think it's a really interesting argument for whether either side should do that, just because of the strength of the draft class.

 

[chethejet]

Depends who is there at say 5. But actually I think either Martin or another center will be there and Dubas will be active as well. My wants is O'Brien but who knows. Pens take Martin and then it depends on what Dubas does at the draft table.

 

[Jacob]

Yohe’s a dumbass if he thinks they give us the 12th pick.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Whats the rationale for the Rangers keeping their 2026 1st? With the Sullivan signing, the message is clearly that they want to compete. I would assume the 12th overall would also be more valuable than the unprotected 1st to upgrade the team.

I guess there could be some team that values a 2026 unprotected 1st. To me the Sullivan + mean reversion + upgrade with 12th overall factors make it seem pretty likely the Rags are a playoff team next year

 

[Jacob]

Whats the rationale for the Rangers keeping their 2026 1st? With the Sullivan signing, the message is clearly that they want to compete. I would assume the 12th overall would also be more valuable than the unprotected 1st to upgrade the team.

They plan on being better so they believe next year’s pick will be much lower than this one’s.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yohe’s a dumbass if he thinks they give us the 12th pick.

There is no reason to claim confidently either way because no one has any idea what the Rangers are going to decide.

Whats the rationale for the Rangers keeping their 2026 1st? With the Sullivan signing, the message is clearly that they want to compete. I would assume the 12th overall would also be more valuable than the unprotected 1st to upgrade the team.

Because if they struggle again next year and end up handing the Penguins McKenna, they will look like absolute morons to keep a #12 pick in a shitty draft.

I don't know which way it goes, but I think people are being far too dismissive of the risks of giving up the unprotected 2026 1st and are incorrect for acting like the Rangers won't consider that risk.

 

[Jacob]

Even if they aren’t much better next year they aren’t going to be worse, I don’t think. Realistically speaking. The chance that pick becomes McKenna are slim. And they plan on making the playoffs, there isn’t one person in that front office that is planning for anything but that, especially considering their jobs are on the line. Especially Drury’s.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In 2017, the Senators were just coming off a deep playoff run where they were an OT goal away from making the cup finals against the Penguins. They traded for Duchene early in that year in an attempt to put them over the hump in November 2017, when they started the year with 17 points in 14 games and were sitting 2nd in the division. They proceeded to finish that year with the 2nd worst record in hockey, going 22-39-6 after the trade. The 1st they gave up to Colorado ended up being Byram.

In 2018, the Sharks were coming off a 100 point season and were trying to make a run with their core as it was getting older. They traded a 2019 or 2020 1st round pick in the Karlsson deal, which ended up converting to a 2020 1st after they re-signed Kane and sent their 2019 1st to Buffalo. The Sharks were good again in 2018-2019 with 101 points and making the conference finals, then they completely imploded in 2019-2020 and finished with the 3rd worst record in the NHL. The 1st they gave up to Ottawa ended up being Stutzle.

That's why the Rangers would give up the #12 pick this year rather than the unprotected 1st. Especially considering they already had a bad season last year and are a pretty old team overall. I don't know that this risk will outweigh their ambition for being good next year, but people acting like "why would the Rangers give up the #12 pick this year?" are ignoring how badly deferring a 1st rounder has gone for teams in recent memory.

Even if they aren’t much better next year they aren’t going to be worse, I don’t think. Realistically speaking. The chance that pick becomes McKenna are slim. And they plan on making the playoffs, there isn’t one person in that front office that is planning for anything but that, especially considering their jobs are on the line. Especially Drury’s.

San Jose went from 101 points and making a conference finals to 63 points and the 3rd worst team in hockey over 1 season.

Drury also just signed a 3 year extension this off-season.

 

[SEALBound]

Depends who is there at say 5. But actually I think either Martin or another center will be there and Dubas will be active as well. My wants is O'Brien but who knows. Pens take Martin and then it depends on what Dubas does at the draft table.

I think you try to get that done ASAP and not wait until the draft even though it's highly likely to be a draft day trade.

My problem is, if you get to #5 and the guys you really want are gone, is it still worth it for us to trade up? Like, while I believe the #5 player will be better than the #11 player, it he that much better than 11+12?

Schaeffer, Misa, Hagens, Martone. That gives you the choice of Desnoyers, O'Brien, Martin, and Eklund. Is anyone of them better than, say, Aitcheson+Lakovic or Bear+Mrtka? Goes double if a guy like Martin or Eklund fall to 11 or 12. I think I'd take Martin+Aitcheson/Lakovic/Bear over Desnoyers and whoever we take in the 2nd round.

Interesting discussion to have though...

ETA: Saw Emps post that said 5+26. Okay, at 26 you likely have Cole McKinney available. I would do Des/JOB/Martin+McKinney over those 11/12 combos.

Whats the rationale for the Rangers keeping their 2026 1st? With the Sullivan signing, the message is clearly that they want to compete. I would assume the 12th overall would also be more valuable than the unprotected 1st to upgrade the team.

I guess there could be some team that values a 2026 unprotected 1st. To me the Sullivan + mean reversion + upgrade with 12th overall factors make it seem pretty likely the Rags are a playoff team next year

I think they believe they will be better than 12th OV. And that the quality of the draft means they will likely get a 12ov quality player later in the 2026 draft.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Maybe the Rags front office doesnt care but to me the optics of giving up the 12th overall seem really weird. You just gave out the biggest coach contract ever, have a bunch of good players that under performed and are suddenly scared of giving up next years pick? To even have a chance at Mckenna, theyd have to finish bottom-10 anyways.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Yohe’s a dumbass

That's all you needed.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Maybe the Rags front office doesnt care but to me the optics of giving up the 12th overall seem really weird. You just gave out the biggest coach contract ever, have a bunch of good players that under performed and are suddenly scared of giving up next years pick? To even have a chance at Mckenna, theyd have to finish bottom-10 anyways.

You're looking at this far too black and white IMO. There's a level of nuance here where the Rangers can fully think they'll be better next year, but understand they could possible struggle again next year and decide that keeping the #12 pick in a weak draft is not worth the risk of giving up a better pick in a better draft next year.

They can rationalize giving up the #12 pick easily by saying "we think the 2026 draft will be significantly better than the 2025 draft", which is what most scouts are saying anyway.

This isn't saying that they won't do what you're saying, the Penguins did the same exact thing in 2020 with their 1st. Their 1st became lottery eligible due to the COVID playoffs, so they had a choice of giving it up or not, but kept it and sent the 2021 1st to Minnesota for Zucker. They then traded that 2020 1st to get Kapanen to improve the team now. It can totally happen with the Rangers, I just don't think we should act like it's outlandish to suggest they'd go one way or the other. It really seems like no one knows right now.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Even if the Rags plan on being better, a lower 2026 1st can easily be a more valuable trade deadline asset than whatever prospect they'd draft at 12 this year.

 

[Peat]

Whats the rationale for the Rangers keeping their 2026 1st? With the Sullivan signing, the message is clearly that they want to compete. I would assume the 12th overall would also be more valuable than the unprotected 1st to upgrade the team.

I guess there could be some team that values a 2026 unprotected 1st. To me the Sullivan + mean reversion + upgrade with 12th overall factors make it seem pretty likely the Rags are a playoff team next year

Beyond not wanting to risk an unprotected 1st, the way people are talking about this draft, 12th overall this year sounds like it's not all that much better than 20 OA next year. If the Rangers believe that, that's a big risk for not much reward.

 

[Peat]

Another thing to consider with the draft is what impact the Rangers pick could have on the Penguins draft plans. It's all speculation right now, but Yohe posted that his guess right now is the Rangers give up the #12 pick this year and he wondered about the Penguins possibly trying to trade up using that pick. If you go based purely on the value of draft picks here, #5 and #26 (658.2) for #11 and #12 (663.4) with Nashville is essentially dead even in value, with the value only being slanted towards the Predators by a late 4th. If you use PuckPedia's Perri Pick value chart, it's only slanted towards the Penguins by a mid 3rd or swapping picks #26 for #30.

I think it's a really interesting argument for whether either side should do that, just because of the strength of the draft class.

Isn't pick 5 where the blue chip prospects run out? That feels like a bad deal in any draft, but particularly this one.

 

[Gurglesons]

Nashville about to draft Hagens as the first ever 1C in franchise history and Dubas turning around and grabbing that pick for nothing would be the final act in terms of his ownage of Trotz this calendar year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Isn't pick 5 where the blue chip prospects run out? That feels like a bad deal in any draft, but particularly this one.

IMO the actual "blue chip prospects" in this draft run out at #2. #5 is looking more like Frondell, Desnoyers, Martone or Hagens. I think you can argue Hagens is a blue chip prospect with a depreciated stock, but I don't think the others are legit "blue chip prospects".

 

[The Old Master]

right now is the Rangers give up the #12 pick this year and he wondered about the Penguins possibly trying to trade up using that pick. If you go based purely on the value of draft picks here, #5 and #26 (658.2) for #11 and #12 (663.4) with Nashville is essentially dead even in value, with the value only being slanted towards the Predators by a late 4th. If you use PuckPedia's Perri Pick value chart, it's only slanted towards the Penguins by a mid 3rd or swapping picks #26 for #30.

i think we could get our guy by moving up far less than that. 3-5 spots should do fine. it won't be a top 5 pick but we could get a very good player.
edit; and we get to keep the rags first

 

[Pancakes]

I don't think the Rangers will give us their pick, but I kinda hope they do because I don't see them being worse next year without injuries.

 

[Ugene Magic]

San Jose went from 101 points and making a conference finals to 63 points and the 3rd worst team in hockey over 1 season.

Drury also just signed a 3 year extension this off-season.

They lost Joe Pavelski to UFA and had injuries to Coulture and Hertl. They've never recovered during the covid seasons, and went onto dismantling after 2022/23.

 

[Empoleon8771]

They lost Joe Pavelski to UFA and had injuries to Coulture and Hertl. They've never recovered during the covid seasons, and went onto dismantling after 2022/23.

And the Rangers losing Shesterkin to injury for half of the season has their pick in the top-5.

 

[Ugene Magic]

And the Rangers losing Shesterkin to injury for half of the season has their pick in the top-5.

But until that happens there no such thing as taking that as an actual prospect to actually making that decision now.

Maybe if they traded him this offseason you'd have your scenario.

The Sharks lost their ability to withstand their injuries to Pavelski leaving.

Basically, you are praying for a miracle.