Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[CheckingLineCenter]

I always forget the draft is a Friday night during summer. I’m gonna put all this thought into it only to be blitzed during the real thing

 

[SEALBound]

Still blown away by how much Martin's stock is rising. I'm having a hard even equating it to another jump. Cole Eiserman stood out to me but I can't remember where he was ranked inititally before he shot up.

He was consistently in that 10-15 range but then "fell" to 20. You may be thinking of Berkley Catton? He was in that 10-15 range for most of the year, had a strong finish, then went #8.

I know most us have Schaeffer at #1, then the 9 best centers, then Mrkta somewhere, and then us getting Eklund but the 2024 draft shows that actual draft selections may be a little more wild. Like I remember Helenius being ranked #5 for quite a bit, went 14th. Sennecke was in the 15-20 range on most, then went 3rd. Same with Yakemchuk who went 7th. Silayev was a consistent top 5 ranking guy and went 10th.

In a weaker draft, I have to wonder if we expect more of that or less of that? To get a good center, we only need 2-3 guys to go higher than us that we don't expect. Maybe teams aren't as high on Martin, Desnoyers, or JOB as us? Maybe they are high on Mrtka or Aitchenson?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Sennecke was such a rockstar jump up

I love shit like that

 

[SEALBound]

As were:
Daniil But
Dmitri Simashev
David Reinbacher (D)

Now, But and Simashev were both Arizona so who knows but all three were reaches relative to where ranked. We just need someone to overvalue Bear, Smith, Aitcheson, and Mrtka. Then we can snag both Jack O'Brien and Brady Martin. Easy.

 

[The Old Master]

I always forget the draft is a Friday night during summer. I’m gonna put all this thought into it only to be blitzed during the real thing

that could be a very smart move.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Sennecke was such a rockstar jump up

I love shit like that

 

[The Old Master]

Still blown away by how much Martin's stock is rising. I'm having a hard even equating it to another jump. Cole Eiserman stood out to me but I can't remember where he was ranked inititally before he shot up.

just another reason to move as high up as possible.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Simashev was a surprise but not mind blowing. I remember a few days before the draft Pronman didn’t necessarily call the pick (or maybe he did?) but he said there was smoke on Bill Armstrong and Simashev and But.

Besides Sennecke, Seider is biggest shocker jump on draft day in recent years I feel like. Hayton was pretty surprising too.

Kotkaniemi was biggest rise in rankings I feel like though. 10th at lottery poll , 5th on final poll (McKenzie). I’m not sure he even played a game between that.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

just another reason to move as high up as possible.

No. Just no.

No one has moved up in the Top 10 since 2008. There is no value in doing so, especially in a weaker draft.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I don't see any reason to come off of much of anything to move up.

In the past it's been a pretty steep price for little reward. And this draft looks especially shit.

 

[Turin]

Sennecke was such a rockstar jump up

I love shit like that

I remember being stunned that Winnipeg picked Scheifele over Couturier

 

[Jesse]

I don't see any reason to come off of much of anything to move up.

In the past it's been a pretty steep price for little reward. And this draft looks especially shit.

Erica DaCosta (Sp? Ravens GM) did a recent podcast hit that I thought was super good where he talked about this moving up in the draft thing in general. His basic point, and I'm seriously paraphrasing here, is that there usually isn't a massive jump in the talent pool by moving up 5-10 spots. In fact, when you spend capital to do that, you're doing it under the assumption (whether you realize it or not) that the player you're moving up to get is significantly more talented than his peers, and that's usually just an evaluation error on your part. Additionally, if you have any sense of a competent player development process, you'd trust your ability to curate any player you take that falls to you given how even the pool is.

“The fact that no one really knows who’s going to be better than anyone else, the only rational approach is to get more at bats, and to pick more.”

 

[The Old Master]

No. Just no.

No one has moved up in the Top 10 since 2008. There is no value in doing so, especially in a weaker draft.

that may be true for most years with most teams, but not this one. with guys rated all over one could easily fall to us but why even take that chance? we have lots of lower picks and a few players to trade and with the spot we are in, you do it. we need to swing for the fence, not play safe. moving up and getting the guy you want is the best way to go. we can always fill in around them later. this is not the time for this team to be getting 3rd line players.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think the only situation where it makes sense to try and move up is if a Martone or Hagens is sitting there a couple picks ahead. If one of those guys who has been talked about as a guaranteed top-4 talent drops, and the team is optimistic enough about them, I'd be fine jumping up a few spots to ensure they get their guy. Nobody really knows how things will shake out years down the road, but I think the only thing worse than landing a bust is knowing you could've moved up and snagged a gem in hindsight. If the price to move up is like a 2nd rounder or something, whatever. I'm a big proponent of more picks the merrier, as it equates to more opportunities to land a hit, but again, if Martone's sitting there for some reason, I'm all for it.

 

[The Old Master]

I think the only situation where it makes sense to try and move up is if a Martone or Hagens is sitting there a couple picks ahead. If one of those guys who has been talked about as a guaranteed top-4 talent drops, and the team is optimistic enough about them, I'd be fine jumping up a few spots to ensure they get their guy. Nobody really knows how things will shake out years down the road, but I think the only thing worse than landing a bust is knowing you could've moved up and snagged a gem in hindsight. If the price to move up is like a 2nd rounder or something, whatever. I'm a big proponent of more picks the merrier, as it equates to more opportunities to land a hit, but again, if Martone's sitting there for some reason, I'm all for it.

we are drafting for what a guy will be in 3 years not what he is now so even after the big 4 there are guys that could be just as good. the trick is to pick him as you have said the more tickets you have the better the chance at the lotto. but i hope that's not your retirement plan. i would rather make the informed discission and pick the guy that i think has the best chance to do that.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

that may be true for most years with most teams, but not this one. with guys rated all over one could easily fall to us but why even take that chance? we have lots of lower picks and a few players to trade and with the spot we are in, you do it. we need to swing for the fence, not play safe. moving up and getting the guy you want is the best way to go. we can always fill in around them later. this is not the time for this team to be getting 3rd line players.

There is not a player in this draft that requires a swing for the fence.

To move up from 11 to 5, for example, will likely cost multiple second round picks or potentially another first round pick. No player in this draft is worth that.

I'd much rather use the extra picks to acquire players who are closer to playing in the NHL than use them to move up in this draft.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Last year, San Jose moved up from #14 to #11 in a trade with Buffalo. It required the Sharks to also give up a second round pick.

Minnesota went from #13 to #12 in a swap with the Flyers. It also required them to give up a third round pick.

Moving up in the Top 10 will be even pricier than the San Jose trade. Not worth it.

 

[The Old Master]

There is not a player in this draft that requires a swing for the fence.

To move up from 11 to 5, for example, will likely cost multiple second round picks or potentially another first round pick. No player in this draft is worth that.

I'd much rather use the extra picks to acquire players who are closer to playing in the NHL than use them to move up in this draft.

you'll never know until you try. and you may not need to move up that high. you're also assuming that the pens board will be the same as most mocks.

 

[Empoleon8771]

They should 100% trade down before trading up. It's not even a question in my eyes.

They're far better off with Reschny/Bear at #16 and gaining an extra 2nd to trade down than Martin/O'Brien at #8 but losing a 2nd to trade up.

 

[The Old Master]

They should 100% trade down before trading up. It's not even a question in my eyes.

They're far better off with Reschny/Bear at #16 and gaining an extra 2nd to trade down than Martin/O'Brien at #8 but losing a 2nd to trade up.

anything that would get us obrien or martin would be worth it. imo

 

[SEALBound]

They should 100% trade down before trading up. It's not even a question in my eyes.

They're far better off with Reschny/Bear at #16 and gaining an extra 2nd to trade down than Martin/O'Brien at #8 but losing a 2nd to trade up.

Would you do that with the 11ov pick or are you talking about the NYR pick?

I'm less willing to do it with the 11ov but if we do get the 12ov and everyone I like is off the board, I would consider (or even advocate) the swap with MTL I've suggested in the past but that's largely because there's 2-3 guys the should go late in the 1st / early in the 2nd that I would like to have and I don't think the difference between 12 and 16 is all that much.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Would you do that with the 11ov pick or are you talking about the NYR pick?

I'm less willing to do it with the 11ov but if we do get the 12ov and everyone I like is off the board, I would consider (or even advocate) the swap with MTL I've suggested in the past but that's largely because there's 2-3 guys the should go late in the 1st / early in the 2nd that I would like to have and I don't think the difference between 12 and 16 is all that much.

The same applies to #11 as #12. Any of these prospects are a crapshoot either way and you're better off with more chances than fewer chances. I would be sad if they passed on Eklund to trade down, but they are very likely better off with trading down. Especially if you trust Dubas and his scouts to make good picks.

 

[SEALBound]

The same applies to #11 as #12. Any of these prospects are a crapshoot either way and you're better off with more chances than fewer chances. I would be sad if they passed on Eklund to trade down, but they are very likely better off with trading down. Especially if you trust Dubas and his scouts to make good picks.

Fair. I'd have to see who is on the board. If by some miracle a guy like Desnoyers, JOB, or Martin fall - I would be upset if they traded down with our only 1st only to end up with Reschny and an early 2nd.

 

[Rakell67]

Simashev was a surprise but not mind blowing. I remember a few days before the draft Pronman didn’t necessarily call the pick (or maybe he did?) but he said there was smoke on Bill Armstrong and Simashev and But.

Besides Sennecke, Seider is biggest shocker jump on draft day in recent years I feel like. Hayton was pretty surprising too.

Kotkaniemi was biggest rise in rankings I feel like though. 10th at lottery poll , 5th on final poll (McKenzie). I’m not sure he even played a game between that.

I read a comparison of Mrtka to Seider. How accurate is this?

 

[Ugene Magic]

They should 100% trade down before trading up. It's not even a question in my eyes.

They're far better off with Reschny/Bear at #16 and gaining an extra 2nd to trade down than Martin/O'Brien at #8 but losing a 2nd to trade up.

I think moving up 6 spots is worth more than a 2nd.

16
15
14
13
12
11

#16 and I'd want our 2nd and their 2nd.

Trading up 4 spots into the top 10 will also cost more than a 2nd. One of the top 5 fall to #8 you can bet it will be a pair of 2nds or more. Probably more.