Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[Andy99]

I find him intriguing but think there’s a lot of bust potential. Here’s what Brock Otten had to say:


11th is high but I think once you hit 15-20 range.. like what are the alternatives that are so much better.

Lowry potential is not a guy you take at #11 lol…I’m seeing a lot of players projected to be taken in round one who project to 3 rd or 4 th line players…sorry not sorry but I’d rather them swing for someone with top line or top pair potential that high in the draft order

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Lowry potential is not a guy you take at #11 lol…I’m seeing a lot of players projected to be taken in round one who project to 3 rd or 4 th line players…sorry not sorry but I’d rather them swing for someone with top line or top pair potential that high in the draft order

Andy man love ya but you gotta read

I said I’d take him later than 11.

The post said “even if he only ends up like Adam Lowry” which implies it’s not his ultimate upside

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

Uhh who?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Lowry potential is not a guy you take at #11 lol…I’m seeing a lot of players projected to be taken in round one who project to 3 rd or 4 th line players…sorry not sorry but I’d rather them swing for someone with top line or top pair potential that high in the draft order

There are effectively no top line or top pair upside guys projected to be at #11 this year.

 

[Andy99]

There are effectively no top line or top pair upside guys projected to be at #11 this year.

If not, trade down if you can…that’s a terrible draft then lol

 

[Jacob]

I recall Pouliot being a huge reach but the broadcast team had McGuire on it, who was friends with Shero, and seemed to already know they were making that pick, and he kind of shifted the narrative live on tv a bit.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I appreciate the silver lining perspective but it seemed like people tried to cope with all that by being like "well they got Maatta later that round so if you think about it it evens out!"

No. No it doesn't.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

There are effectively no top line or top pair upside guys projected to be at #11 this year.

I don’t agree necessarily. I agree it’s an unexciting class outside the top 4 (which I think is strong). Like I have Eklund 5 and while I like him think he’s a weak-ish 5. I think after he and Frondell it gets reallly hard as no one feels like a bonafide top 10 pick. However it’s not that there’s no top of the lineup talent I just think you gotta project more with all of these guys. Which makes it hard and why it’s really feeling like rankings are all over the place with this class.

Overall I am really not a fan of completely poo-pooing anyone. I think almost every prospect at the top of a draft has ways they could develop and hit to become valuable players. It’s more about how likely it is to happen and what they can still be if they don’t develop perfectly.

Like DeBrincat, Stankoven are good examples of NHL GMs being too old school. But Vlasic or Guhle (who I mistakenly poo-pooed) are good recent examples of players internet scouts discount but turns out the league was accurate in valuing them.

Long winded way to say - who knows with 17-18 year olds. You can’t always just call guys “low upside” because they don’t score.

 

[Deport Ogie]

I recall Pouliot being a huge reach but the broadcast team had McGuire on it, who was friends with Shero, and seemed to already know they were making that pick, and he kind of shifted the narrative live on tv a bit.

I've told this story before but I was in the arena for this and the way the air in the building just got more and more charged as the Canes pick approached to just blow up when Bettman came up and announced a trade. The place was NUTS and I specifically remember looking over at the Pens table and Shero was just leaning back in his chair, soaking it all in. Lots of "Forsberg?" whispers around me. Then they went up an announced Pouliot and the entire building just deflated into this dead "who the eff?" vibe. It was honestly amazing to experience.

 

[Andy99]

I don’t agree necessarily. I agree it’s an unexciting class outside the top 4 (which I think is strong). Like I have Eklund 5 and while I like him think he’s a weak-ish 5. I think after he and Frondell it gets reallly hard as no one feels like a bonafide top 10 pick. However it’s not that there’s no top of the lineup talent I just think you gotta project more with all of these guys. Which makes it hard and why it’s really feeling like rankings are all over the place with this class.

Overall I am really not a fan of completely poo-pooing anyone. I think almost every prospect at the top of a draft has ways they could develop and hit to become valuable players. It’s more about how likely it is to happen and what they can still be if they don’t develop perfectly.

Like DeBrincat, Stankoven are good examples of NHL GMs being too old school. But Vlasic or Guhle (who I mistakenly poo-pooed) are good recent examples of players internet scouts discount but turns out the league was accurate in valuing them.

Long winded way to say - who knows with 17-18 year olds. You can’t always just call guys “low upside” because they don’t score.

Yeah, you really have to do a deep dive on the player..,not just the skill but what the player does outside the rink…if they enjoy partying a lot for example, you can’t just throw that piece of info away by saying, well he’s 18 years old, who doesn’t…you have to find ways to determine who really loves hockey, will put it first in their lives and will work hard to develop their skills more than they already have…we could have avoided Pouliot and Kap that way…also prioritize skating (should at least not be a weakness) and we could have avoided Poulin…all self inflicted wounds…skating and hockey IQ should be non negotiable in a first round pick and then just pick the highest projectable guy who has both…the mistake is thinking well we can fix this when more often or not you really can’t fix it enough

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Shit, man--I'm still all for trading up a few spots if someone like Martone or Martin or Eklund drops to within a couple picks and the asking price isn't extreme--which I don't think it'll be to go from like 11th to 8th or something. Might as well make sure you get the guy you like the most imo. But that'll have to be a snap decision made on the draft floor after seeing who falls and gauging interest/asking price at the moment.

If this team's gonna stand pat, and all the guys we've been discussing (Martone, Martin, Eklund) are gone, I might take a flier on Aitcheson. Sounds like an interesting player at least; piss and vinegar compete level, always seems to be involved, great shot from the point, aggressive (maybe to a fault lol). Feels very boom or bust, but if he hits, he should be a fun player to watch and pretty effective as a middle pairing guy.

I'd rather go for an interesting guy like that than take a flier on someone dealing with injury or mechanical issues like skating, or going with a safer but boring pick. It's a relatively weak draft and this team's not sitting in a position on the draft board where they really, really have to hit on the pick yet.

I've told this story before but I was in the arena for this and the way the air in the building just got more and more charged as the Canes pick approached to just blow up when Bettman came up and announced a trade. The place was NUTS and I specifically remember looking over at the Pens table and Shero was just leaning back in his chair, soaking it all in. Lots of "Forsberg?" whispers around me. Then they went up an announced Pouliot and the entire building just deflated into this dead "who the eff?" vibe. It was honestly amazing to experience.

Pretty much the exact experience from my couch too.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Pretty much the exact experience from my couch too.

Bear in mind that plenty of Penguins fans post 2012 draft were telling people like you and Ogie to sit down and stop their bitching because the team knows what they're doing after that disaster of a pick, BTW. Even if it was obvious to anyone with a semi-functioning brain what should have been done, there.

Worth remembering the next time someone tells you that your take is stupid and reactionary.

 

[Rakell67]

I believe if the Pens do get the Rangers' pick that they will trade down with one of those picks or even trade up. I don't see them picking 11 and 12. Something like 8 and 12 or 11 and 17+2nd.

 

[Jacob]

Oddly Pouliot did develop pretty well over the next 2 years. Kinda stagnated in the pros. But it looked like they knew what they were doing for a couple years.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Bear in mind that plenty of Penguins fans post 2012 draft were telling people like you and Ogie to sit down and stop their bitching because the team knows what they're doing after that disaster of a pick, BTW. Even if it was obvious to anyone with a semi-functioning brain what should have been done, there.

Worth remembering the next time someone tells you that your take is stupid and reactionary.

Honestly at the time I expected Trouba, given this team's fascination with blueliners at all costs. Don't worry, we can just flip 'em to fill holes elsewhere. Ignore the fact that you'd need to actually develop all these blueliners and give 'em spots in the lineup to build value. What's that? Mark Eaton's available? Say no more.

But yeah, passing on Trouba, let alone the *obvious* choice in Forsberg, was insane at the time and only looks worse when you revisit it.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Oddly Pouliot did develop pretty well over the next 2 years. Kinda stagnated in the pros.

Yeah he had that big last year for the Winterhawks and even posted up some respectable numbers in the AHL following that... somewhat limited sample size, granted. He was just one of those guys that had the talent to push through the lower levels but could never put it together enough to stick in the NHL. He seemed to have constant conditioning issues and honestly I never saw any part of his skillset that stuck out enough to really build on.

Just a weird pick in the top ten of a draft.

 

[Jacob]

Honestly at the time I expected Trouba, given this team's fascination with blueliners at all costs. Don't worry, we can just flip 'em to fill holes elsewhere. Ignore the fact that you'd need to actually develop all these blueliners and give 'em spots in the lineup to build value. What's that? Mark Eaton's available? Say no more.

But yeah, passing on Trouba, let alone the *obvious* choice in Forsberg, was insane at the time and only looks worse when you revisit it.

I expected, and wanted, Trouba.

Forsberg at that time was sort of hanging everything on a really good 5 nations tournament. Everywhere else he hadn't done much of anything. In hindsight he'd be the best pick, obviously, but he fell a bit for a reason.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I've told this story before but I was in the arena for this and the way the air in the building just got more and more charged as the Canes pick approached to just blow up when Bettman came up and announced a trade. The place was NUTS and I specifically remember looking over at the Pens table and Shero was just leaning back in his chair, soaking it all in. Lots of "Forsberg?" whispers around me. Then they went up an announced Pouliot and the entire building just deflated into this dead "who the eff?" vibe. It was honestly amazing to experience.

I was there, and really, the place cheering trading out the best player in the deal was kind of stupid. The return ended up being half assed. Maatta was with our own 1st.

Shero>>>>Sutter, Dumoulin and that 8th overall. (Pouliot)

JR twice traded him >>>>Sutter turned into Bonino, Clendening, 2nd (Gustavsson)

That ended up being a shit return for Staal. Dumo wasn't anything special on his own.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I dunno I thought that was an absolutely fantastic return for Staal. Especially considering JR knew Shero had no leverage.

They just botched the pick

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I dunno I thought that was an absolutely fantastic return for Staal. Especially considering JR knew Shero had no leverage.

They just botched the pick

Objectively good value imo

 

[Deport Ogie]

I dunno I thought that was an absolutely fantastic return for Staal. Especially considering JR knew Shero had no leverage.

They just botched the pick

Yeah agreed. There's a lot of levels to it as well even outside of the player Staal was/is. Not to mention it was decently clear in hindsight that he wanted out, even it was not a hostile, combatitive approach.

Didn't he reject the exact deal from Pittsburgh that he eventually accepted in Carolina or was that a false memory?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah agreed. There's a lot of levels to it as well even outside of the player Staal was/is. Not to mention it was decently clear in hindsight that he wanted out, even it was not a hostile, combatitive approach.

Didn't he reject the exact deal from Pittsburgh that he eventually accepted in Carolina or was that a false memory?

Yes. He was offered 60 million spread over ten years by Ray Shero at which point I nearly blew that angry blood vessel out in my temple.

Luckily he didn't want to be here and rejected it. At which point he was traded and signed the exact same deal offered by JR.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I dunno I thought that was an absolutely fantastic return for Staal. Especially considering JR knew Shero had no leverage.

They just botched the pick

That wasn't a UFA Staal, he still had 1 year of term left at 4.0,

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

That wasn't a UFA Staal, he still had 1 year of term left at 4.0,

I don't think this is accurate but either way I don't see what difference it makes?

Jordan Staal didn't want to be here and Ray Shero extracted max value. Heck that's a great return for Jordan Staal under ANY circumstance.

The 8th overall PLUS a buncha stuff? Come on...

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, everybody in the world knew Staal wanted to go to Carolina and play with his brother(s). Good thing Carolina's GM at the time is a HHOF dipshit who absolutely had to have his guy at all costs.