Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[wej20]

I think it's going to be huge for high end prospect development. The prospect of starting in the CHL at 15/16 and dominating until 18/19 then going to the NCAA because you've outgrown the OHL but aren't old enough for the AHL...that's gonna be big. The NCAA product is going to get significantly better too.

Whit talked about this being bad for US born players though which I can see but if the Canadian kids from the CHL go to the NCAA, it opens up slots in the CHL so maybe just shuffling around.

Yeah, it is interesting to see that Luke Misa (Michael's older brother) who was a 5th round pick of the Flames and is going to Penn State after a good 4 season OHL career. I wonder if it will squeeze out some of the older depth players from NCAA team, the guys who go to the NCAA at 20 after playing USHL or Junior A.

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah, it is interesting to see that Luke Misa (Michael's older brother) who was a 5th round pick of the Flames and is going to Penn State after a good 4 season OHL career. I wonder if it will squeeze out some of the older depth players from NCAA team, the guys who go to the NCAA at 20 after playing USHL or Junior A.

Yeah I think that's the "unintended consequence" and it's not like 22yo Senior is going to the WHL, ya know? Might improve some ECHL teams?

I do think it will lower the quality of the CHL a bit. I imagine a couple kids on the younger side would get the chance that they otherwise may not have gotten until the next year.

Honestly too, the next couple of drafts are going to be tough for scouts and they will have to do some recalibrating as well. The cream will always rise to the top but those mid to late rounds could get tougher (2nd and 3rd).

 

[wej20]

Yeah I think that's the "unintended consequence" and it's not like 22yo Senior is going to the WHL, ya know? Might improve some ECHL teams?

I do think it will lower the quality of the CHL a bit. I imagine a couple kids on the younger side would get the chance that they otherwise may not have gotten until the next year.

Honestly too, the next couple of drafts are going to be tough for scouts and they will have to do some recalibrating as well. The cream will always rise to the top but those mid to late rounds could get tougher (2nd and 3rd).

Maybe guys like Avery Hayes will jump to the NCAA for a season or two and then go pro. I assume the CHL guys have 4 years of eligbility in NCAA?

 

[SEALBound]

Maybe guys like Avery Hayes will jump to the NCAA for a season or two and then go pro. I assume the CHL guys have 4 years of eligbility in NCAA?

He didn't light up the OHL at 18-20 and then he was eligible for the AHL.

I would imagine we this will primarily be noticeable for the high-end prospects. I don't think it will be a mass exodus from the CHL, especially if you aren't getting money. These players will also have to factor in "going to college" even though some of it is a joke. But they just might not want to be in school. I imagine some Canadian kids will opt to stay at home as well.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think: do they want to go to school? Is a real Q

But know quite a few Canadians from my lacrosse days and most were dying for a US education and US employment. Not even at Harvard or Duke, but run of the mill state school. My understanding from them was earning power and spending power much better in white collar jobs here in the US.

 

[PensFutures]

A quarter of million dollars, a handshake deal they dont have to go class, and 25k girls in a 2 mile radius? I try not to be the jealous type, but I hate seeing people live the life meant for me.

 

[SomeDude]

Wild to see guys going from Major Junior to NCAA, really shakes things up.

Being drafted out of NCAA also opens that whole loophole for essentially being able to pick your team if you so desire.

It shouldn’t matter to a top guy like McKenna, though, who will be signed 5 minutes after picked. Can you imagine if he refused to sign and opened up that possibility? That would get the NHL to prioritize changing that rule pretty quick.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

guys like McKenna would basically be pushing their payday back by 2-3 years by refusing to sign and waiting to go UFA

for a guy like him that could be 20-30+ mil

 

[SEALBound]

guys like McKenna would basically be pushing their payday back by 2-3 years by refusing to sign and waiting to go UFA

for a guy like him that could be 20-30+ mil

I believe the max they could make a ELC is $4.5 a year (assuming they get everything maxed out in the contract and they hit all performance points? So $13.5mil plus what they might make that first year as a RFA.

Guys like McKenna, I can't see doing it. Those guys not getting the call for 2-3 years and they are only giving up 1-2 seasons? If they really hate the team that drafted them, not unreasonable

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I believe the max they could make a ELC is $4.5 a year (assuming they get everything maxed out in the contract and they hit all performance points? So $13.5mil plus what they might make that first year as a RFA.

Guys like McKenna, I can't see doing it. Those guys not getting the call for 2-3 years and they are only giving up 1-2 seasons? If they really hate the team that drafted them, not unreasonable

I’m saying first 2-3 years of RFA. McKenna would have to wait until August 2029. Then he would sign an ELC deal rather than starting his second contract, which presumably would pay him 10 mil + a year.

A guy that goes NCAA after his DY would have to wait 4 seasons and sign Aug 15. So even longer

Just financially it’s not smart if you’re a top 5 or maybe even top 10 pick imo. Better to pull that card if you’re more in the McG, Howard, Hayes, etc tier.

 

[wej20]

Being drafted out of NCAA also opens that whole loophole for essentially being able to pick your team if you so desire.

It shouldn’t matter to a top guy like McKenna, though, who will be signed 5 minutes after picked. Can you imagine if he refused to sign and opened up that possibility? That would get the NHL to prioritize changing that rule pretty quick.

Major junior players can become free agents if they desire, they don't usually because they finish their junior careers and then sign as they have to play somewhere. The fact that these players can now go play NCAA after CHL means we may see some guys drafted out of the explore becoming free agents. Though teams can still sign their CHL players at any time and have their contract slide which isn't an option for players playing college hockey

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Major junior players can become free agents if they desire, they don't usually because they finish their junior careers and then sign as they have to play somewhere. The fact that these players can now go play NCAA after CHL means we may see some guys drafted out of the explore becoming free agents. Though teams can still sign their CHL players at any time and have their contract slide which isn't an option for players playing college hockey

Yeah but they have to re enter the draft

 

[SEALBound]

I’m saying first 2-3 years of RFA. McKenna would have to wait until August 2029. Then he would sign an ELC deal rather than starting his second contract, which presumably would pay him 10 mil + a year.

A guy that goes NCAA after his DY would have to wait 4 seasons and sign Aug 15. So even longer

Just financially it’s not smart if you’re a top 5 or maybe even top 10 pick imo. Better to pull that card if you’re more in the McG, Howard, Hayes, etc tier.

Yup, you're right. You're foregoing 3-4years of the NHL and then having to sign the ELC. But I mean, I guess that's the balance in the rule. Want to pick your team? Fine, go that route and give up 8 figures.

 

[wej20]

Yeah but they have to re enter the draft

Yes but they can still become free agents if they wait out the 2 years of rights for the team who drafts them after re-entering the draft.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

With all these reports of Hagens talking about how huge an Isles fan he is and how badly he wants to play for the Isles and all that, it would be hilarious if they took him 1st overall or traded back to like 3rd overall to take Hagens.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I have Schaefer far and away the best prospect in this class. Don’t get why you don’t take him, even if you’re Chicago.

Think Hagens over Misa is somewhat reasonable though.

 

[PensFutures]

With all these reports of Hagens talking about how huge an Isles fan he is and how badly he wants to play for the Isles and all that, it would be hilarious if they took him 1st overall or traded back to like 3rd overall to take Hagens.

Looking at their roster/contracts, I dont think its the worst thing. Especially if they can also unload Engvall or Duclair.

NYI - 1oa+Engvall
Chicago - 3oa+Vanacker

 

[SEALBound]

I have Schaefer far and away the best prospect in this class. Don’t get why you don’t take him, even if you’re Chicago.

Think Hagens over Misa is somewhat reasonable though.

I know we butt heads on this but it's fair to say that Schaeffer is the best dman and Misa is the best center.

I think NYI need a forward more than a dman and Sharks need a dman more than a forward. Would be pretty straightforward and good for both for it to go Misa-Schaeffer.

Only wrench in there is if the Islanders want Long Island by James Hagens. I could see a scenario where Chicago trades up to 1ov to take Misa, SJS take Schaeffer, and NYI take Hagens and get a little something on the side. Chicago has Toronto's first and a couple of 2nds. Those three going to those respective teams makes the most "logical" sense IF you were hand-picking everything.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Things will also just shake out if the NYI just pick Hagens #1.

The pecking order doesn't change so why trade up if it will work out the same.

NYI - Hagens
SJS - Schaefer
CHI - Misa

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I feel like a week or so ago we were kicking around the idea of Hagens potentially falling to like 7th.

I like Hagens. I wouldn't pass on Schaefer or Misa for him though, and I think if the Isles do that, it's gonna be driven by sentiment for the hometown boy and, ultimately, be a mistake.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I believe the max they could make a ELC is $4.5 a year (assuming they get everything maxed out in the contract and they hit all performance points? So $13.5mil plus what they might make that first year as a RFA.

Guys like McKenna, I can't see doing it. Those guys not getting the call for 2-3 years and they are only giving up 1-2 seasons? If they really hate the team that drafted them, not unreasonable

The Canadian golden child will never rock the boat, imo. There is too much at stake. Eric Lindros was the only one, really. And that was mainly politically driven by his parents.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I feel like a week or so ago we were kicking around the idea of Hagens potentially falling to like 7th.

I like Hagens. I wouldn't pass on Schaefer or Misa for him though, and I think if the Isles do that, it's gonna be driven by sentiment for the hometown boy and, ultimately, be a mistake.

This is not a draft where passing on a Schaefer for a Hagens is going to destroy a franchise, IMO. The Islanders are always viewed as the Rangers' little brother. They always have an uphill battle for relevancy.

If they can trade down and still get Hagens, while adding other assets, I don't see why they would not go for that. Of course, it is up to the new management team to make that call.


On a completely different topic, I think I would be OK with drafting Roger McQueen at 11 (PROVIDED the top 6 centers are all off the board, and Eklund is off the board). If the choice is between Smith, Mrtka and McQueen, I say swing for the fences. We do need a future No. 1 center. So take as many swings as you can and maybe you hit one out of the park.

 

[Dominance]

Bear or McQueen. Swing for it!

 

[Rudy Russo]

Bear or McQueen. Swing for it!

Bear

 

[BrookswasHere44]

I don't see how Aitcheson and Miller are at all comparable outside of being black.

Miller and Smith are more comparable stylistically.

You missed both playing defense as well but yeah I think he noticed they were black and went with it