This is my half-assed attempt at a list this year. I haven't put the time into watching juniors like I used to. Just a game or two for most of these guys. I'll try and put an upside projection next to their names, and come up with comps if I can.
1. Matthew Schaefer, LD, elite #1D
The skating is incredible and the processor can keep up. People are shy about the Scott Niedermayer comparisons but I won't be. He could be that good.
2. Michael Misa, C, #1C
All around high end tools. He should be a big time scorer, maybe 90 pt center if he has great players around him. Shades of Jason Spezza or Tyler Seguin. I'm less sure how he'd look without great linemates like he had in Saginaw, he's not a guy who I would expect to carry a team on his back.
3. Porter Martone, W, All Star winger
Martone is a big playmaker, too soft to call a power forward. He doesn't engage in battles enough or play with much pace. His game is about vision and deft passing, forehand and backhand. He is the type of player who knows what he is going to do before the puck comes to him, he plays more like Kucherov than a Tkachuk brother. My closest comp might be Rantanen, maybe without the elite shooting.
4. Brady Martin, F, top six power forward
Martin scored a lot in the second half and at the U18s. He's more than just a devastating hitter. His "jump", which is part of what makes him a great hitter, is going to come in handy in the NHL, and not just for hitting. He can jump into battles and protect the puck. The puck skills are average but I think his battle level will make him an ideal third man on a top line. Somewhere in the Zach Hyman and Sam Bennett overlap.
5. Radim Mrtka, RD, top pair D
A lot of projections have Mrtka as a second pair guy but I think he profiles more as a #2D type. Everything but PP. He fluidly covers so much ice, with very little weakness to exploit in his skating. Good puckmover. Really nothing missing at 5v5 and he's 6'6 220 already. I'll take that over the future 2Cs.
6. Caleb Desnoyers, C, top six center
Desnoyers showed glimpses of being a #1C but not enough of it. Most of the time I felt like I was watching more of a David Krejci type. He's smart positionally and has good all around tools, but nothing special. He's 6'2 170 lbs so maybe that will change when he gets a lot more muscle and power in his stride.
7. Jackson Smith, LD, top pair D
Smith is an incredible skater and uses it to gain the zone with ease on offense, and to choke out rushes on defense. He can tilt the ice that way. He doesn't know what to do in each zone though. At offense he squanders plays. But we've seen so many great skating D learn to refine their games in the NHL, it just takes a while. I'm thinking of the transformation of Broberg, and earlier of D Toews and Forsling.
8. Victor Eklund, W, top six forward
Eklund is one of the few players I feel comfortable comparing to Seth Jarvis. The skill isn't quite on that level but the motor and hockey sense is very high and he knows how to use his body to engage physically on his terms. Eklund is the primary driver for Frondell's line in the Allsvenskan league, and while most scouts think Eklund won't be very effective in the NHL at his size, I think he can be. He's 5'11 and figures to get stronger. Frankly he's bigger than Jarvis and Arvidsson. Those are his closest comparables in terms of playstyle.
9. Anton Frondell, F, top six forward
Frondell is like if Boone Jenner had an elite shot. He's built solid and doesn't back down. Not great vision or passing, Frondell relied more on Eklund to establish possession. Frondell could be a center with a dominant puck carrying winger, in the same way that Jenner worked with Gaudreau. But Frondell really does have a great shot. It's very heavy and very accurate. I'd be surprised if he isn't a 30+ goal guy.
10. Jake O'Brien, C, top six center
Like Desnoyers, O'Brien is 6'2 170 and you hope he can transform into more of a beast later on. Right now he is a slower pace center, and he lacks the positional polish of Desnoyers, that's why he's ranked a bit lower. He is a very good passer though, he has some of the best vision in the draft. It really depends on how much quicker he can get though. I find it easier to imagine him as a Dylan Strome type of center or maybe Ryan Johansen, guys who didn't have a lot of pace.
11. Lynden Lakovic, W, top six forward
Lakovic has top six skill all day, top line even. No one else can weave into the zone with such ease, and he does it at 6'4. Great in open ice situations. But when the puck is on the wall Lakovic does a fly by or watches his teammates do the work. Unfortunately the puck is within a few feet of the wall for, what is it, 80% of the game? Do you want to draft a guy that you have to teach grit to? Some of this might come along as Lakovic learns the pro tactics for board battles, and as he gets stronger. He's a lanky 6'4 190. I think he'll be a scorer in the NHL, but maybe a frustrating player to have.
12. Kashawn Aitcheson, LD, middle or bottom pair D
If you want someone with that dawg in them... that's Aitcheson. He's a devastating hitter and loves to chirp and battle and bomb the puck. There have been Kevin Bieksa comparisons.
13. Logan Hensler, RD, #2-#4 D.
Hensler is a very good skater in all four directions, and already built solid. Call me crazy but I think there's a bit of McDonagh in there. Hensler shows polish defensively and moves pucks well from the back end, but is a bit less useful in the offensive zone. I think his detractors underweigh the difficulty of college hockey. Hensler is unlikely to play on the PP in the NHL but he did do very well against college opponents in other aspects.
14. Sasha Boumedienne, LD, top 4 D.
I'm not sure why so many outlets have Boumedienne ranked in the 20s. He's 6'2, he skates like the wind, he showed a good defensive game playing college hockey as a 17 year old, he scored
fourteen points in 7 games at the U18s. Granted he didn't show much offense in college and he wasn't as good as his point totals indicate at the U18s, but he's combined to show you glimpses of everything you want to see. There's upside here.
15. Daniil Prokhorov, W, top nine netfront specialist.
Prokhorov is very consistently physical, at times devastating. And he very consistently drives the net, plays at the netmouth, and especially plays behind the net where he is impossible to dislodge from the puck. He's a nightmare for goalies. He's 6'6 220, very very strong already, and he knows what he is good at. That's the good, which is very good, the rest is bad. He especially needs to come a long way in passing and vision. But I think you might just take him for what he is good at.
16. Braeden Cootes, C, middle six center.
He's very fast and very driven, high battle level. Only 5'11.5 though. And he wasn't a big scorer this year. You're banking on his drive and motor making him translate to the pros better than the similar small skilled centers out there. I enjoyed watching him more than the other centers this year, Cootes is always in the action.
17. Cameron Reid, LD, top four D.
Reid is only 6'0 and everyone is wary of how many D prospects that size have turned into Boqvists. I think Reid is closer to Josh Morrissey though. The skating is that damn good, and he can battle. If your team can accommodate a smallish LD then you might have him higher than this.
18. Roger McQueen, C, top six center??
McQueen is a bit lower because of the injury risk and because his game lacks polish in all areas. He's really good at squirming through traffic at high speed, which is remarkable to see for a 6'5 forward. But he's not a good shooter and inconsistent in passing. How valuable is Tage Thompson without the shot? It's possible McQueen isn't that valuable even if healthy. Very wide range of outcomes here.
19. Carter Bear, F, top nine forward??
Bear would be an easy top ten selection if not for the Achilles injury. Bear was a great puck hound who showed a lot of skill in all areas. Great determination, a fan favorite type. I'm not assuaged by reports that he is healthy now. We don't know yet how his skating has changed.
20. Justin Carbonneau, F, top nine forward
Carbonneau is a competitive well built forward who drives hard to score. A lot of skill. Unfortunately some bad decision making and poor vision. I ultimately found him frustrating to watch, I don't know if does much to make his teammates better.
21. Ivan Ryabkin, F, top six forward??
Ryabkin has garnered attention for being out of shape and very underwhelming. But let's talk about what he can be if he shows up in shape. The kid has crazy handling and passing skill, he is very strong. Very deceptive. Very physical and nasty. A lot of attributes grade out at the top. I think on upside you have to take him in the 1st round, maybe higher than this.
22. Ryker Lee, F, top nine forward
Lee has very good puck skill. I always notice him on the PP for cleanly handling everything and improving the puck. I didn't notice him much at 5v5. He doesn't have a lot of pace. Hockeyprospect ranks him 15th, which ought to gain attention. They were the only outlet high on Knies, also out of the USHL, ranking him similarly.
23. Jack Nesbitt, C, bottom six center.
Nesbitt reminds me at times of a Bjugstad, sometimes of Anisimov. He's a very lanky center at 6'4 180. He might get significantly stronger. One thing is relatively clear though and that is that Nesbitt is smart off puck. He's nothing special with it.
24. Cole Reschny, C, middle six forward??
Reschny is a speedy puck carrier who went on a torrid scoring pace down the stretch and into the WHL playoffs. But he is a shade under 5'11 and looks small. Not that comfortable creating space physically like Cootes or Eklund. There is some bust risk at the size. HP had him ranked 14th FWIW.
25. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, bottom six forward
I also debated the blazing fast Potter or the power forward Zonnon here. I went with the giant Nestrasil, 6'6 185. He isn't much to watch now, just flashes of skill around the net, and some good skating mechanics. He'll add a lot of weight, will be fun to watch where he ends up.
I didn't rank Hagens. He's better than plenty of these guys on this list, but I had him after Aitcheson, possibly lower than that, and when you have a guy much lower than consensus, sometimes it's better to just say "let someone else pick him". I see him as most likely a Tyson Jost type of player in the NHL. Better than that but still not very valuable. I had been thinking Clayton Keller, but I kept thinking while watching Hagens that I couldn't imagine Keller making so many poor plays.
@tunnelvision I'm curious how your list ended up. I have a fraction of your viewings.
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