Prospect Info: 2025 DRAFT Thread

[koteka]

Such a setup wouldn't accurately reflect the actual draw odds.

EDIT: In a Perfect World, one could hypothetically accomplish this by divvying up 200 balls among the various teams - 37 to SJS, 27 to CHI, we'd get 4, et cetera et cetera. The problem there, though, is that it makes verifying that the lottery balls are untampered and fair and equal that much more difficult, because of both 1) the sheer number of balls to inspect and 2) the fact that you're having team representatives handle their own lottery balls, which creates a conflict of interest. There's reasons it's designed this way.

Now this is an interesting HF CBJ discussion. Kudos to you.

You can design around tampering. The league provides a bucket of balls to each team rep 10 seconds before they drop them in the bucket. Or the league has 16 buckets with logos each handled by an independent accountant with no relationship with the city so you don’t need team reps. I just think it would be cool if we send up David Savard or some Jacket fan favorite each year (Besides players we have Dancing Kevin, Leo, Jeff Rimer, etc.) and he dump some balls. (It would be even cooler if we didn’t need to participate at all and we could watch Sidney Crosby come out every year and dump some Pittsburgh balls.) But I would defer to someone like @Indy18 on how this should work.

And I want like a thousand balls or more. It is about showmanship. Plus it would make tampering for any individual ball harder. Part of the judging the different entries would be how hard it is to rig the outcome. Plus the fact balls are auctioned off then it means there is a massive disincentive for tampering.

BTW, I believe the Patrick Ewing cold envelope story. So making it open and harder to rig is part of the fun of the whole system. Maybe the process becomes a reality show with several episodes focused on the design round and competition, an episode or two where they bring in people like Mark Rober or Jamie Hyneman to talk about ways you could rig the outcome, then modifications to the design based on any weaknesses, and then the draw, and then the charity auction at the end.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

what number is our other pick (Minnesota) ?

20

 

[Indy18]

Now this is an interesting HF CBJ discussion. Kudos to you.

You can design around tampering. The league provides a bucket of balls to each team rep 10 seconds before they drop them in the bucket. Or the league has 16 buckets with logos each handled by an independent accountant with no relationship with the city so you don’t need team reps. I just think it would be cool if we send up David Savard or some Jacket fan favorite each year (Besides players we have Dancing Kevin, Leo, Jeff Rimer, etc.) and he dump some balls. (It would be even cooler if we didn’t need to participate at all and we could watch Sidney Crosby come out every year and dump some Pittsburgh balls.) But I would defer to someone like @Indy18 on how this should work.

And I want like a thousand balls or more. It is about showmanship. Plus it would make tampering for any individual ball harder. Part of the judging the different entries would be how hard it is to rig the outcome. Plus the fact balls are auctioned off then it means there is a massive disincentive for tampering.

BTW, I believe the Patrick Ewing cold envelope story. So making it open and harder to rig is part of the fun of the whole system. Maybe the process becomes a reality show with several episodes focused on the design round and competition, an episode or two where they bring in people like Mark Rober or Jamie Hyneman to talk about ways you could rig the outcome, then modifications to the design based on any weaknesses, and then the draw, and then the charity auction at the end.

I know you want the showmanship so I don’t blame you on that but this is why I said I had no issue with the process. Also dumping each ball in is time consuming and what we didn’t realize is the potential of constant 2nd pick draws because the long shots won. Personally even if it was in a sealed container I personally wouldn’t sign an audit log if someone else physically had control of the balls.

Personally I been really amused by the comments of how the draft was conducted. some people don’t like to see how the sausage is made which is why they done the flip cards in the past. It’s a boring, tedious process which is why it’s been media only as witnesses until now. I give the production team credit with the current odds overlay after each ball is drawn and personally I would had drawn it out outside the mandatory 30 second sweat for the last ball. If you want showmanship there it is. Have cameras at like whatever their PINS watchparty is and watch the fans sweat. Considering next years draft prize that’s my suggestion for how to make it reality tv

Still I rather leave the pageantry for the first round of the draft. Last year was perfect and I think the GMs realized how important it was to have in person drafts and hopefully they course correct for the future. I have no issue if it’s in Vegas every year for the foreseeable future

 

[cbjthrowaway]

until some Canadian celebrity like Tate McRae comes out

the blue jackets have inconceivably bad historical luck with the lotto and you want to introduce even more bad juju to the process by bringing in the starlet who wrote her big revenge album after (allegedly) being cheated on by a blue jackets player???

 

[punk_o_holic]

Brady Martin/Carter Bear and Logan Hensler/Blake Fiddler please

The Score mock draft had Columbus picking Hensler at 14. But Joshua Ravensbergen at 20.

They has Martin at 6. Fiddler at 17 and Bear at 18

 

[CannonFire1]

The Score mock draft had Columbus picking Hensler at 14. But Joshua Ravensbergen at 20.

They has Martin at 6. Fiddler at 17 and Bear at 18

If we take Hensler over Martin or Bear I will be very disappointed. He seems like a third pairing guy (at best) who is not overly impactful at either end of the ice. Someone who has seen him play could change my mind, but I would hope for more upside picking in the top half of round one.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

My dog's name is Bear so there's that. I have nothing else to offer on this topic (yet).

 

[majormajor]

Brady Martin/Carter Bear and Logan Hensler/Blake Fiddler please

If we take Hensler over Martin or Bear I will be very disappointed. He seems like a third pairing guy (at best) who is not overly impactful at either end of the ice. Someone who has seen him play could change my mind, but I would hope for more upside picking in the top half of round one.

It sounds like Mikey had Hensler at 20 and Bear as an option at 14.

I actually think Logan Hensler would be the better pick at 14. He is an elite skater and might be able to play a top 4 shutdown role. I think he has a little bit of McDonagh in him. There's very little offensive upside but given our strengths on the backend I'm okay with that as long as he takes care of pucks, and makes a good pass, which he does.

Carter Bear's injury is career threatening. The achilles shortening is going to give him an even shorter stride and potentially ruin his skating. I don't know if we'll see him skate before the draft. I would definitely go for Bear pre-injury, it just sucks that he had to get hurt like this. It seems like he might be there at 20.

 

[koteka]

My dog's name is Bear so there's that. I have nothing else to offer on this topic (yet).

How is his skating?

 

[punk_o_holic]

If we take Hensler over Martin or Bear I will be very disappointed. He seems like a third pairing guy (at best) who is not overly impactful at either end of the ice. Someone who has seen him play could change my mind, but I would hope for more upside picking in the top half of round one.

This was the write up on Hensler....

Hensler lacks a standout skill, but has a well-rounded toolkit that makes him a worthwhile pick in the middle of the first round. He's a 6-foot-2, right-handed defenseman who skates well and can chip in offensively. Hensler entered the draft year as a top-10 projected pick, but a lackluster year at Wisconsin dropped his stock.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

How is his skating?

Is draft eligibility in human years or dog years?

Our backyard "rink" needs zambonied but here you go.

 

[CannonFire1]

It sounds like Mikey had Hensler at 20 and Bear as an option at 14.

I actually think Logan Hensler would be the better pick at 14. He is an elite skater and might be able to play a top 4 shutdown role. I think he has a little bit of McDonagh in him. There's very little offensive upside but given our strengths on the backend I'm okay with that as long as he takes care of pucks, and makes a good pass, which he does.

Carter Bear's injury is career threatening. The achilles shortening is going to give him an even shorter stride and potentially ruin his skating. I don't know if we'll see him skate before the draft. I would definitely go for Bear pre-injury, it just sucks that he had to get hurt like this. It seems like he might be there at 20.

Thanks for the update on Bear. I haven't followed the updates regarding his injury and recovery.

My first choice would be to trade one or both picks for a defensive upgrade. Then if we make a pick I hope it is best player regardless of position. Many evaluators have said this is a weak class for defensemen. We also drafted several a year ago, so I would hope we don't reach based on position. If we pick a Dman I hope it is someone other than Hensler.

 

[CannonFire1]

This was the write up on Hensler....

Hensler lacks a standout skill, but has a well-rounded toolkit that makes him a worthwhile pick in the middle of the first round. He's a 6-foot-2, right-handed defenseman who skates well and can chip in offensively. Hensler entered the draft year as a top-10 projected pick, but a lackluster year at Wisconsin dropped his stock.

This description makes me think "less dynamic version of Corson Ceulemans."

 

[cbjthrowaway]

wheeler's new big board has reschny at 15. says he'll likely go much lower than that. compares him to seth jarvis.

seeing as waddell was the canes GM when they picked jarvis in the first, i wouldn't be surprised if they end up have a really high grade on one of the small guys in this class. if they like more than one, they could probably move 14 for a roster piece and still get a highly-graded player at 20.

 

[tunnelvision]

This description makes me think "less dynamic version of Corson Ceulemans."

Well I wouldn't say Hensler is a mastermind processor or super dynamic skill-wise but based on what I've seen his defensive reads are more mature, and he's shown he's capable of supporting offense with great skating and decent handling, and making smart and patient decisions in retrievals, although it's probably fair to say he hasn't been very consistent in that regard. Better processing and well-rounded toolset gives him a high floor in relation to Ceulemans.

 

[majormajor]

This was the write up on Hensler....

Hensler lacks a standout skill, but has a well-rounded toolkit that makes him a worthwhile pick in the middle of the first round. He's a 6-foot-2, right-handed defenseman who skates well and can chip in offensively. Hensler entered the draft year as a top-10 projected pick, but a lackluster year at Wisconsin dropped his stock.

Who's write up?

His skating and particularly his defensive skating is a standout. He's very quick laterally and skating backwards, very hard to get around.

Thanks for the update on Bear. I haven't followed the updates regarding his injury and recovery.

My first choice would be to trade one or both picks for a defensive upgrade. Then if we make a pick I hope it is best player regardless of position. Many evaluators have said this is a weak class for defensemen. We also drafted several a year ago, so I would hope we don't reach based on position. If we pick a Dman I hope it is someone other than Hensler.

I did a mock last night where the more preferred forwards were all gone by our pick. O'Brien, Laukovic, Martin, etc... We were left with Carbonneau and a bunch of guys that I haven't seen but have unexciting resumes. So Carbonneau vs a D pick (Hensler or Boumedienne really). I like Hensler there.

Carbonneau looks like a good goal scorer, and very intense and physical at times, but with wacky hockey sense. I could imagine him as a middle six goal scorer without trouble, but Hensler looks just as likely to be a middle pair RD and that is more valuable (not as a team need, more valuable in general).

This description makes me think "less dynamic version of Corson Ceulemans."

That would be very much the opposite. Ceulemans was a river boat gambler at that point, the opposite player type. I think there is a gap there in hockey sense. Hensler plays the game with much more polish.

I'm less sure on this point because they have the same measurements but Hensler looks stronger and more stable out there.

I'd love to be able to watch some McDonagh and Slavin games from when they were draft eligible because that is what you hope for from Hensler.

 

[majormajor]

wheeler's new big board has reschny at 15. says he'll likely go much lower than that. compares him to seth jarvis.

seeing as waddell was the canes GM when they picked jarvis in the first, i wouldn't be surprised if they end up have a really high grade on one of the small guys in this class. if they like more than one, they could probably move 14 for a roster piece and still get a highly-graded player at 20.

I watched this game of Reschny's from the playoffs vs Charlie Elick and Jackson Smith.



- Charlie Elick not impressive in the handful of shifts we see here. Bad decision making, like on the penalty kill here where he wanders out of position. Did he get worse across the board from last year, not just offensively? I didn't see his play from last year.

- Jackson Smith is a mess. But that skating is just too good to pass up. I think after his unimpressive U18s there is a chance he'll be available at #14, and then I'd definitely be picking him. Take a swing and hope to get a Thomas Harley type.

- Reschny might be an okay pick around #20. The Jarvis comparisons irk me a bit, Wheeler is too loose with that. Jarvis had some special qualities that separated him from your typical small junior star. He could go through a crowd of big guys and they couldn't touch him, he would hit them if he felt like it. Reschny is more normal. Really smart, good skater, but normal strength for a 5'10 kid and likely limited at the NHL level.