Prospect Info: 2025 DRAFT Discussion

[Jesse]

The more I hear about McQueen, the more the Kevin Vellieux comparison I made in jest seems valid.

I said Keven Veilleux last night in a group chat to a bunch of people. Unreal we both went there. It's plain as day when you really think about it.

 

[Jesse]

I'm starting to get into some defensemen now. Spent a lot of time on Jackson Smith last night. Totally forgot Stu Barnes was the head coach in Tri-City. Nice little trek down memory lane of being a kid and yelling "Stuuuuuuu" in Mellon Arena.

I think Aitcheson is the clear-cut second best D in this draft for me. And from what I've seen so far, the only player as untouchable as McQueen for me is Logan Hensler. Someone put Logan Hensler in their top 20 early in the season and he's just floated there in everyone's rankings despite doing practically nothing this season. I am not even gonna bother trying to make some kind of mixtape out of this. I just think there are like two dozen better players to focus on before him.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I'm starting to get into some defensemen now. Spent a lot of time on Jackson Smith last night. Totally forgot Stu Barnes was the head coach in Tri-City. Nice little trek down memory lane of being a kid and yelling "Stuuuuuuu" in Mellon Arena.

I think Aitcheson is the clear-cut second best D in this draft for me. And from what I've seen so far, the only player as untouchable as McQueen for me is Logan Hensler. Someone put Logan Hensler in their top 20 early in the season and he's just floated there in everyone's rankings despite doing practically nothing this season. I am not even gonna bother trying to make some kind of mixtape out of this. I just think there are like two dozen better players to focus on before him.

Im not quite there with you on Aitcheson. He’s aggressive when there’s a body check to make but really passive in terms of giving up time and space. I see him more late teens/20s.

 

[Jacob]

I think Dubas genuinely has some belief that they can turn this around quickly and try to get Sid and maybe Geno another Cup in the next couple years. So that's why it wasn't a full-on sell-off with Rakell and Rust as well.

I don't think that's realistic but I think they're trying to keep that as an option.

I'm starting to get into some defensemen now. Spent a lot of time on Jackson Smith last night. Totally forgot Stu Barnes was the head coach in Tri-City. Nice little trek down memory lane of being a kid and yelling "Stuuuuuuu" in Mellon Arena.

I think Aitcheson is the clear-cut second best D in this draft for me. And from what I've seen so far, the only player as untouchable as McQueen for me is Logan Hensler. Someone put Logan Hensler in their top 20 early in the season and he's just floated there in everyone's rankings despite doing practically nothing this season. I am not even gonna bother trying to make some kind of mixtape out of this. I just think there are like two dozen better players to focus on before him.

People say this about a lot of players but Aitcheson is truly a throw-back player. And I'm not sure if those even work in today's NHL but to me it's worth it because he's just so exciting, he really seems like a guy that can change a game's momentum with either a goal, a big hit or a fight and it's hard to put any numerical value on that. He genuinely loves to clock guys with big hits and *looks* for a fight after he's landed the hit, and loves to take big swings.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

No he’s right. We probably lose about 2-3 more games without Rakell.

Maybe, but the biggest thing sabotaging draft position is getting goaltending. They haven't really looked that much better as a team than they did a month ago. No one is even talking about Raks relative to W/L if Jarry were still laying eggs left and right.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

People say this about a lot of players but Aitcheson is truly a throw-back player. And I'm not sure if those even work in today's NHL but to me it's worth it because he's just so exciting, he really seems like a guy that can change a game's momentum with either a goal, a big hit or a fight and it's hard to put any numerical value on that. He genuinely loves to clock guys with big hits and *looks* for a fight after he's landed the hit, and loves to take big swings.

Yeah I love those things and I posted yesterday we need more of it. I just worry about taking a guy so early based on those things. They so easily go away as you go up levels

A) he is not an elite skater. Really hard to be an elite hitter at NHL level now without being a really good skater or having elite size. Best guys have both (Wilson, Zadorov, Anderson, etc). He just has decent size. Maybe he can be the exception though

B) what does he fall back on if the extracurricular/emotional stuff becomes muted? The only tool i see that will be a plus tool in the NHL is the shot and idk if that’s a big deal for a D

C) 3rd year in the WHL. Physically advanced. Which is fine but I just don’t see a ton of development runway left for him in terms of upside. And I’m already worried about upside with him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Maybe, but the biggest thing sabotaging draft position is getting goaltending. They haven't really looked that much better as a team than they did a month ago. No one is even talking about Raks relative to W/L if Jarry were still laying eggs left and right.

In Jarry's 9 games since getting called up, he has basically stolen 3 games against Minnesota (3-1 win, 1 goal on 30 shots), Vegas (3-2 OT win, 2 goals on 35 shots) and Ottawa (1-0 OT win, 0 goals against on 31 shots). Since the trade deadline, the Penguins have scored 3 or fewer goals in 8 of 11 games. The reason they're 6-4-1 in those 11 games is more about Jarry having a .944 save% in his 5 wins since getting called up.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Maybe, but the biggest thing sabotaging draft position is getting goaltending. They haven't really looked that much better as a team than they did a month ago. No one is even talking about Raks relative to W/L if Jarry were still laying eggs left and right.

Yeah exactly.

flawed stat but like only McDavid/Makar level skaters give you a WAR of 3 in 11 games haha

 

[eXile3]

Maybe, but the biggest thing sabotaging draft position is getting goaltending. They haven't really looked that much better as a team than they did a month ago. No one is even talking about Raks relative to W/L if Jarry were still laying eggs left and right.

I mean, we didn’t score a single goal last game without Rakell and Sid on the ice. Blaming Jarry seems like a way to deflect it from Dubas.

I don’t know what offers he got on Rakell so I can’t say if it was right vs wrong. I can definitely say that we are worse team without Rakell.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, we didn’t score a single goal last game without Rakell and Sid on the ice. Blaming Jarry seems like a way to deflect it from Dubas.

I don’t know what offers he got on Rakell so I can’t say if it was right vs wrong. I can definitely say that we are worse team without Rakell.

Jarry literally got a shutout last game. Him giving up 1 goal in regulation means that's a loss.

How is that "deflecting it from Dubas"?

 

[Ugene Magic]

I do see a real estate license in his future, yes.

He's a hockey coach at Shady Side Acadamy's boys' hockey team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Back to the draft talk, what do scouts think of Aitcheson's offensive upside? He does have 26 goals and 59 points this year, so combining that sort of offense with a rough/physical style that he offers is pretty interesting. That said, is that more about him just physically being able to dominate juniors that he wouldn't be able to do in the NHL? None of the scouting reports I'm reading are mentioning much about his offense at all, it's all about how physical, competitive and heavy he is.

His pro comparable is Trouba and I was thinking of Phaneuf when reading his profile. Trouba and Phaneuf were both decent to good offensive contributors early in their career, although both fell off pretty aggressively once they turned about 30.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Dubas really hurt the future by being stubborn at the deadline. My guess is we probably lose 2-3 more games if 67 and 24 are traded and are currently sitting solidly with a top 4 pick in addition to getting another first and top prospect for Rakell.

Yeah, I mean, people can mental gymnastics it all they want, but not trading Rakell at the TDL was a mistake for many reasons. Gives this team another 1st this draft to use in a trade or to take a player with at the draft. Likely an additional pick or prospect. You remove a guy who has been a PPG player (11pts in 11GP) since the March 7th TDL, likely resulting in a couple more crucial losses as the season winds down.

Dubas f***ed up. It's probably not a huge f*** up, but every little bit helps when a team's in the position the Pens are in and will be moving forward. Oh well.

No he’s right. We probably lose about 2-3 more games without Rakell.

The only reason to do that is if you feel you can catch and pass the top two spots' holders. They have close to the same hitting on a top tier 2 prospect at #6/#7/#8 spots depending on how the top 5 picks go. Just 1 has to reach for a guy.

This draft is deeper than they have said, and I suspect next years is overstated it is deeper considering it doesn't have 4 players who are considered a top #1 worthy prospects. It's McKenna and the rest. The tier 2 is not as deep, or so it doesn't look so as of now that could change with another year.

They don't consider tanking, but conveniently this season played into tanking on its own merit. Giving up 4/5 goals a game, poor defense and goaltending. It's like they sacrificed all the defense to score goals.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Back to the draft talk, what do scouts think of Aitcheson's offensive upside? He does have 26 goals and 59 points this year, so combining that sort of offense with a rough/physical style that he offers is pretty interesting. That said, is that more about him just physically being able to dominate juniors that he wouldn't be able to do in the NHL? None of the scouting reports I'm reading are mentioning much about his offense at all, it's all about how physical, competitive and heavy he is.

His pro comparable is Trouba and I was thinking of Phaneuf when reading his profile. Trouba and Phaneuf were both decent to good offensive contributors early in their career, although both fell off pretty aggressively once they turned about 30.

From what I've seen, he plays like a 4th forward out there. But I can see him being a Trouba with questionable hits and he backs them up with the fights at least.

Hopefully he has better brains than Trouba. He certainly is a cocky dude which has a Ryan Reaves feel to it.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I said Keven Veilleux last night in a group chat to a bunch of people. Unreal we both went there. It's plain as day when you really think about it.

It really really is and it’s wild to me that more people don’t see it. Glad I’m not the only one.

 

[HandshakeLine]

He's a hockey coach at Shady Side Acadamy's boys' hockey team.

Also a licensed realtor!

 

[Jesse]

Yeah I love those things and I posted yesterday we need more of it. I just worry about taking a guy so early based on those things. They so easily go away as you go up levels

A) he is not an elite skater. Really hard to be an elite hitter at NHL level now without being a really good skater or having elite size. Best guys have both (Wilson, Zadorov, Anderson, etc). He just has decent size. Maybe he can be the exception though

B) what does he fall back on if the extracurricular/emotional stuff becomes muted? The only tool i see that will be a plus tool in the NHL is the shot and idk if that’s a big deal for a D

C) 3rd year in the WHL. Physically advanced. Which is fine but I just don’t see a ton of development runway left for him in terms of upside. And I’m already worried about upside with him.

I agree he isn't an elite skater for sure. But he's somewhere in upper third as far as that talent goes. Like I think you can categorize his skating as "good" but without a lot of superlatives.

His microstat percentages tell me he's good enough with the puck on his stick that he can be a solid contributor to zone exits at future levels. This data isn't just OHL specific, it's across the entire CHL, stepping outside of just Barrie for a minute. I think you combine his entry denial work with his puck skill and you end up with a solid 2nd pairing guy at the ceiling.

Being in the 89th percentile for xG buildup as a defenseman (this isn't position-specific data) is pretty wild to me.

 

[Fogel]

While Rakell might have cause the Pens to win some more games than if he was dealt, Jarry rediscovering a starter's form definitely has caused them to win more than expected. Too bad he can't have this form when they actually needed it.

 

[Jesse]

From what I've seen, he plays like a 4th forward out there. But I can see him being a Trouba with questionable hits and he backs them up with the fights at least.

Hopefully he has better brains than Trouba. He certainly is a cocky dude which has a Ryan Reaves feel to it.

My biggest (and really only) gripe with him is he chases that big hit sometimes. That's not an uncommon trait for guys who can lay the boom like that. A couple of his bigger hits on tape, you see a 3-on-2 developing behind him immediately. I think his overall hockey sense is there, he just needs to pick some of his spots a little better when it comes to stepping up on someone. Especially in transition.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I agree he isn't an elite skater for sure. But he's somewhere in upper third as far as that talent goes. Like I think you can categorize his skating as "good" but without a lot of superlatives.

His microstat percentages tell me he's good enough with the puck on his stick that he can be a solid contributor to zone exits at future levels. This data isn't just OHL specific, it's across the entire CHL, stepping outside of just Barrie for a minute. I think you combine his entry denial work with his puck skill and you end up with a solid 2nd pairing guy at the ceiling.

Being in the 89th percentile for xG buildup as a defenseman (this isn't position-specific data) is pretty wild to me.

Yeah I’d call his skating good now, and that it projects to be average at NHL level. (Avg at NHL level in 2025 ha - so solid)

bigger than those 3 bulllets tho… I really don’t love how much time and room he gives up- am I just on too small of a sample size or is that a legit concern

 

[HandshakeLine]

My biggest (and really only) gripe with him is he chases that big hit sometimes. That's not an uncommon trait for guys who can lay the boom like that. A couple of his bigger hits on tape, you see a 3-on-2 developing behind him immediately. I think his overall hockey sense is there, he just needs to pick some of his spots a little better when it comes to stepping up on someone. Especially in transition.

I would love to have that skill set in the system but man, I cannot think of a defender Sullivan would hate more.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah these discussion points about Aitcheson really make the Trouba comparison seem appropriate. He'd definitely be a different kind of defenseman than what they have in the rest of their system, but I'm iffy on using the Rangers 1st on a guy that seems like a 2nd pair Trouba type of defenseman as his upside. That's similar to the discussion about Desnoyers in the context of the Penguins 1st, wouldn't you you want to be aiming for a higher upside with those picks?

A lot can change with where the Rangers pick falls, though. If it's like 16th overall, I think Aitcheson is a legitimate name to consider. But at like #10 or #11, I'm not sure he'd be the guy I'd be hoping for.

 

[tnnr]

Rossi could maybe be that player, Guerin seems really keen to get rid of him. Id be trying to see if they'd take Rakell for him first though

I think they try to recoup a 1st for for Rossi over an older player like Rakell, no?

Would you guys do NYR 1st for Rossi ?

 

[Jared Grayden]

The only reason to do that is if you feel you can catch and pass the top two spots' holders. They have close to the same hitting on a top tier 2 prospect at #6/#7/#8 spots depending on how the top 5 picks go. Just 1 has to reach for a guy.

This draft is deeper than they have said, and I suspect next years is overstated it is deeper considering it doesn't have 4 players who are considered a top #1 worthy prospects. It's McKenna and the rest. The tier 2 is not as deep, or so it doesn't look so as of now that could change with another year.

Tiers don't exist in the sense that players can be safely categorized. That's just something publication scouts do to simplify their lists for readers. Team lists will be radically different so BPA to our perception is likely very different to each individual team. Moreover, their probability of winning a top two pick for Schaefer/Misa decreases the more they win. For sure there is some premature overreacting from Rossi and the like, but overall winning is likely not in the org's best interest.

 

[SEALBound]

The more I hear about McQueen, the more the Kevin Vellieux comparison I made in jest seems valid.

He might have been fine if he kept the racial slurs on ice to minimum. We had a few odd dandies in that timeframe. Casey Pierro-Zabotel was another that couldn't keep his mouth shut (nor could his girl). There was another in that 04-08-ish draft timeframe that really turned a lot of people off with his talk and attitude but I can't remember.

I'm starting to get into some defensemen now. Spent a lot of time on Jackson Smith last night. Totally forgot Stu Barnes was the head coach in Tri-City. Nice little trek down memory lane of being a kid and yelling "Stuuuuuuu" in Mellon Arena.

I think Aitcheson is the clear-cut second best D in this draft for me. And from what I've seen so far, the only player as untouchable as McQueen for me is Logan Hensler. Someone put Logan Hensler in their top 20 early in the season and he's just floated there in everyone's rankings despite doing practically nothing this season. I am not even gonna bother trying to make some kind of mixtape out of this. I just think there are like two dozen better players to focus on before him.

On dmen, I had Aitcheson at 4. Schaeffer (obviously), then Smith and Mrtka at 2a/b (depending on what you want in a dman), then Aitcheson. Smith is ranked right at the 9/10 slot and Mrtka and Aitcheson in that 14/15/16 slot. Cameron Reid is another that is right in there but his ranking and scouting reports are all over and sounds more like a bottom pairing PMD.

Not arguing or saying you're wrong but what are you seeing in Aitcheson that makes you think he's better than Mrtka or especially Smith? I just haven't seen any scouting reports or lists that have him that high.

I figured Schaeffer and Smith would be in the top 10. Mrtka may drop but I figured Aitcheson would be a quality target if we get the Rags pick (based on who else is available). Like if we are picking 7/8, I have plenty of guys ahead of him but if we are that 18/19, it would be a good target unless we want to risk Bear or take a guy like Malcolm Spence.