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Prospect Info: 2025 DRAFT Discussion

If the Penguins go 2-4-1 in their last 7, they'll finish with 76 points. For that to end up worse than #8 overall, the teams behind them in the standings would have to go:

-Anaheim: 0-7-1 in their last 8 games
-NYI: 0-7-1 in their last 8 games
-Detroit: 0-8 in their last 8 games

All 3 of those teams have the tiebreaker on the Penguins in terms of RWs, so they'd win the tiebreaker at 76 points with the Penguins. So they literally have to lose out if the Penguins go 2-4-1 in their last 7 to finish above the Penguins in the draft.

I don't know why I'm trying to use math and reason in response to this, but the only chance that the Penguins pick later than #8 overall is if a team behind them wins the draft lottery and pushes them to 9th (if one team wins the lottery) or 10th (if two teams win the lottery). Or if they go on some insane end of season run, which seems about as likely as the #9 or later team winning the draft lottery.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
If the Penguins go 2-4-1 in their last 7, they'll finish with 76 points. For that to end up worse than #8 overall, the teams behind them in the standings would have to go:

-Anaheim: 0-7-1 in their last 8 games
-New Jersey: 0-7-1 in their last 8 games
-Detroit: 0-8 in their last 8 games

All 3 of those teams have the tiebreaker on the Penguins in terms of RWs, so they'd win the tiebreaker at 76 points with the Penguins. So they literally have to lose out if the Penguins go 2-4-1 in their last 7 to finish above the Penguins in the draft.

I don't know why I'm trying to use math and reason in response to this, but the only chance that the Penguins pick later than #8 overall is if a team behind them wins the draft lottery and pushes them to 9th (if one team wins the lottery) or 10th (if two teams win the lottery). Or if they go on some insane end of season run, which seems about as likely as the #9 or later team winning the draft lottery.
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New Jersey?
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Meant the NYI.
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But I don't expect PIT to go 2-4-1. 4-3 could happen with our schedule. I look at 2-4-1 as a safe route to remain eighth or have an outside shot at 7th. The Isles have lost six in a row. They are probably favored in ONE of their remaining games. The Ducks won't be favored in any of their remaining games and nearly blew a two goal lead to the sharks last night (sharks tied it but lost in SO). Wings are under dogs in every game. We're gonna be favored in at least three games. We can easily overtake one of these teams. Not all but one? Very strong possibility.
 
Ryder71 said:
But I don't expect PIT to go 2-4-1. 4-3 could happen with our schedule. I look at 2-4-1 that as a safe route to remain eighth. The Isles have lost six in a row. They are probably favored in ONE of their remaining games. The Ducks won't be favored in any of their remaining games and nearly blew a two goal lead to the sharks last night (sharks tied it but lost in SO). Wings are under dogs in every game. We're gonna be favored in at least three games. We can easily overtake one of these teams. Not all but one? Very strong possibility.
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If the Penguins go 4-3 in their remaining schedule, that has them finishing with 79 points. The math doesn't change much:

-Ducks: must go 2-6 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Islanders: must go 2-6 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Wings: must go 1-6-1 or worse in the remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft

In terms of teams below them:

-Philly: must go 4-2 with fewer RWs or worse in remaining 6 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Buffalo: must go 4-4 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft

Considering Buffalo is 7-3 in their last 10 and Philly has won 3 games in a row since Tortorella got fired, the Penguins are more in play to pick #6 than #9 if they go 4-3 in their last 7 games. If they go 4-3, I'd bet they're neck and neck with Buffalo for the #7 pick and Philly has the #6 pick.

Like I said, the only reasonable way the Penguins pick worse than #8 overall is if they go on an insane hot run at the end of the year (meaning like 6-1 or 5-1-1) or if a team behind them in the standings wins the draft lottery. That's about it.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
If the Penguins go 4-3 in their remaining schedule, that has them finishing with 79 points. The math doesn't change much:

-Ducks: must go 2-6 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Islanders: must go 2-6 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Wings: must go 1-6-1 or worse in the remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft

In terms of teams below them:

-Philly: must go 4-2 with fewer RWs or worse in remaining 6 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Buffalo: must go 4-4 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft

Considering Buffalo is 7-3 in their last 10 and Philly has won 3 games in a row since Tortorella got fired, the Penguins are more in play to pick #6 than #9 if they go 4-3 in their last 7 games.
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The Ducks could easily go 2-6 with their schedule, ISLES as well. The Wings? Wouldn't surprise me if they went in the crapper as they normally do. Look at their schedules.

BUF could overtake us, let's hope so. But I disagree that we're closer to 6th than 9th. Absolutely not!
 
McQueen is looking more and more like another fizzling power forward. Someone has to eventually figure out how to keep these guys developing their skills when they’re so far ahead of their peers physically.
 
cygnus47 said:
McQueen is looking more and more like another fizzling power forward. Someone has to eventually figure out how to keep these guys developing their skills when they’re so far ahead of their peers physically.
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He's too much of a question mark to take that high in the draft. IMO anyhow. I'd much prefer Desnoyers (who'll likely be gone) then Eklund (who may or may not be gone) or O'Brien. We need one of those three at a minimum.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
If the Penguins go 4-3 in their remaining schedule, that has them finishing with 79 points. The math doesn't change much:

-Ducks: must go 2-6 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Islanders: must go 2-6 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Wings: must go 1-6-1 or worse in the remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft

In terms of teams below them:

-Philly: must go 4-2 with fewer RWs or worse in remaining 6 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft
-Buffalo: must go 4-4 or worse in remaining 8 games to finish ahead of the Penguins in the draft

Considering Buffalo is 7-3 in their last 10 and Philly has won 3 games in a row since Tortorella got fired, the Penguins are more in play to pick #6 than #9 if they go 4-3 in their last 7 games. If they go 4-3, I'd bet they're neck and neck with Buffalo for the #7 pick and Philly has the #6 pick.

Like I said, the only reasonable way the Penguins pick worse than #8 overall is if they go on an insane hot run at the end of the year (meaning like 6-1 or 5-1-1) or if a team behind them in the standings wins the draft lottery. That's about it.
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Way too much analysis here for me

IMG_6354.gif
 
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SEALBound said:
Us Winning = Bad
Us Losing = Good
Them Winning = Good
Them Losing = Bad
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I sincerely don't think enough people are looking at where we pick as crucial, it is! One or two points can be the difference between us getting a core piece for the future, as opposed to just getting a complimentary player. It really does matter, and regardless of what we do via trades or anything else it'll pale in comparison UNLESS a guy like Marner comes here which seems unlikely. We need to lose in the worst way!
 
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McQueen is out tonight due to stiffness/soreness. Second game he’s missed since he came back for that reason. On the one hand it’s kind of expected due to the injury and the time he missed, and also good they’re being cautious, but at the same time concerning. He’s not a DND for me but he’s a DND with our pick.
 
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Jacob said:
McQueen is out tonight due to stiffness/soreness. Second game he’s missed since he came back for that reason. On the one hand it’s kind of expected due to the injury and the time he missed, and also good they’re being cautious, but at the same time concerning. He’s not a DND for me but he’s a DND with our pick.
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We should have nothing to do with him as I've been saying for months! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
 
Jacob said:
McQueen is out tonight due to stiffness/soreness. Second game he’s missed since he came back for that reason. On the one hand it’s kind of expected due to the injury and the time he missed, and also good they’re being cautious, but at the same time concerning. He’s not a DND for me but he’s a DND with our pick.
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Agreed. Penguins can’t screw the pooch on this.
 
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Yeah, I mean, people can mental gymnastics it all they want, but not trading Rakell at the TDL was a mistake for many reasons. Gives this team another 1st this draft to use in a trade or to take a player with at the draft. Likely an additional pick or prospect. You remove a guy who has been a PPG player (11pts in 11GP) since the March 7th TDL, likely resulting in a couple more crucial losses as the season winds down.

Dubas f***ed up. It's probably not a huge f*** up, but every little bit helps when a team's in the position the Pens are in and will be moving forward. Oh well.
 
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Guins71 said:
Dubas really hurt the future by being stubborn at the deadline. My guess is we probably lose 2-3 more games if 67 and 24 are traded and are currently sitting solidly with a top 4 pick in addition to getting another first and top prospect for Rakell.
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This is an insane take. Seriously. Drink your morning coffee and dial back the overreaction.
 
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