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Prospect Info: 2025 Draft discussion

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Freeptop said:
I was poking around on here: 2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon
And those percentages show that there is actually a greater chance of the Pens ending up with a worse pick after the lottery than a better one.

Which made me wonder - let's say the Pens ended up finishing with the 6th worst record, then both lottery draws end up pushing the Pens down two picks, resulting in the Pens getting the 8th overall pick.

Hypothetically speaking, if, say, the Canadiens offered the 12th overall and their other first (wherever it ends up being - the conditions are apparently rather complicated) for the Pens' 8th overall, do you take it?
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Would you rather trade down or up?

Buffalo wins because of course they do.
 
SEALBound said:
Yeah each of them have their own strengths. I mean, if you had to choose between the following NHL players to start your team, who would you pick:

Adam Fox
Jack Hughes
Mitch Marner
Matthew Tkachuk
Alexander Barkov

That's roughly what the 5 teams are looking at using "ultra potential reached" equivalents. That's why I've said I think it might come down to the actual team and what they feel their roster needs are.
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Is it wrong to prefer a Barkov?
 
Dipsy Doodle said:
I have no doubt Schaefer looked incredible in the OHL this year. I only question for how long he's done it, and whether basing such a significant ranking change on so few games is wise. Bunting looked like a stellar fit on Malkin's line last year based on 21 games.
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There’s a difference between a guy like Bunting looking like a good fit in 20 games vs someone being the best player on the ice in every game for 20 games. Esp when they’re 17 and a elite skater.

Sample is big enough for me.
 
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CheckingLineCenter said:
There’s a difference between a guy like Bunting looking like a good fit in 20 games vs someone being the best player on the ice in every game for 20 games. Esp when they’re 17 and a elite skater.

Sample is big enough for me.
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There's a difference in talent, but not in the theory behind it - a small sample size is still a small sample size. I used the Necas example earlier, and he was performing at an all-world level.

I'm not even saying Schaefer shouldn't be the #1 pick, I'm just saying an argument could easily be made that the relatively tiny number of games of him performing at that level leaves room for doubt. Sustained performance does still matter.
 
I don't think I'd trade up tbh. I know people say Schaefer's the clear cut #1 but I don't think the difference is big enough from a Schaefer to a Misa/Martone/Hagens at #3 to miss out on the extra lotto ticket that is whoever is sitting at #15 or so, like Bear or something.
 
Dipsy Doodle said:
There's a difference in talent, but not in the theory behind it - a small sample size is still a small sample size. I used the Necas example earlier, and he was performing at an all-world level.

I'm not even saying Schaefer shouldn't be the #1 pick, I'm just saying an argument could easily be made that the relatively tiny number of games of him performing at that level leaves room for doubt. Sustained performance does still matter.
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I don’t think the NHL comp makes a ton of sense because the only way to prove you’re all world in the league is with sustained dominance. With 17-18 year old kids vs other kids who have varying degrees of future in hockey you are looking at potential. Schaefer has both a) elite tools and b) ~30 performances where he is head and shoulders above his peers.

I guess my point is I don’t see how another 30-40 games changes anything. I agree with you if this is McQueen who needs to put it together… but Schaefer was dominant for longer than you think. Gave us elite, 1OA play at the u18, Hlinka, OHL, and 2 WJC games now and has a NHL frame and skating. That is basically a college season of games with 4 different lineups and opponents and he was amazing through it all.
Lastly scouts only see ~15 games of guys anyway. Impossible to watch every player play every game.

So I agree there is room for doubt. But don’t agree it’s because he didn’t play another 30 games.

I think the Q with Schaefer is more about his offensive upside. Are you getting a d-man who picks up points drafting off his teammates or are you getting a guy who can run a PP and drive offense from the backend? Another 40 games skating circles around future USports players doesn’t solve that question. You just gotta compare his risks to Misa/Hagens/Martone’s risks and decide who is best to take the plunge on.

So long winded way to say— agree to disagree then.
 
CheckingLineCenter said:
I don’t think the NHL comp makes a ton of sense because the only way to prove you’re all world in the league is with sustained dominance. With 17-18 year old kids vs other kids who have varying degrees of future in hockey you are looking at potential. Schaefer has both a) elite tools and b) ~30 performances where he is head and shoulders above his peers.

I guess my point is I don’t see how another 30-40 games changes anything. I agree with you if this is McQueen who needs to put it together… but Schaefer was dominant for longer than you think. Gave us elite, 1OA play at the u18, Hlinka, OHL, and 2 WJC games now and has a NHL frame and skating. That is basically a college season of games with 4 different lineups and opponents and he was amazing through it all.
Lastly scouts only see ~15 games of guys anyway. Impossible to watch every player play every game.

So I agree there is room for doubt. But don’t agree it’s because he didn’t play another 30 games.

I think the Q with Schaefer is more about his offensive upside. Are you getting a d-man who picks up points drafting off his teammates or are you getting a guy who can run a PP and drive offense from the backend? Another 40 games skating circles around future USports players doesn’t solve that question. You just gotta compare his risks to Misa/Hagens/Martone’s risks and decide who is best to take the plunge on.

So long winded way to say— agree to disagree then.
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That's fair. Schaefer certainly looked great at the WJCs and a couple dozen games like that at the OHL level would be #1 calibre.

Pronman's latest ranking has Hagens at 4 and Martone at 5. 🫨
 
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McGroarty2 said:
Is it wrong to prefer a Barkov?
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No but in world does a GM take Frondell over any of the top 4. Frondell is firmly #5.
Andy99 said:
This would not be a good outcome imo…we shouldn’t be picking our future 3C at 6 or 7OA…

www.dailyfaceoff.com

2025 NHL Mock Draft: Top 32 post-NHL Trade Deadline edition

The NHL Draft is still over three months away – but it’s never too early for a mock draft.
www.dailyfaceoff.com www.dailyfaceoff.com
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I think that's a very realistic draft order.

At the end of the day, I think it's a toss up on McQueen or Desnoyers. Those two and Eklund are all about equal and have similar upsides IMO. If we draft them and they become our 3C, it is what it is. It's not like we can come back and bitch that we didn't take Misa. We are the mercy of the quality of the players in the draft class.

Also, I would 1000% take Malcolm Spence over Blake Fiddler. Carter Bear would be even better.
 
I think there is borderline no chance that Desnoyers is going over Hagens or Martone. Just no chance a team would be dumb enough to do that.

On Desnoyers, I'm not sold that his upside is particularly lower than someone like Eklund, but there's a clear top-5 in the draft and there's a notable drop after them IMO. I'm happy with anyone in the top-5, the Penguins just need to make sure they can get one of them by finishing with a top-5 pick.
 
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