Prospect Info: 2025 Draft discussion

[Gurglesons]

Ah I see what you mean

I mean id take a lotto win haha

I think this team getting a player that can slot into 2C or a top six winger role potentially next year and be a 40-50 pt player with Sid and Geno is much more beneficial to the long term and short term than Schaefer.

You get a piece like that in the top 5, it gives you a potential franchise piece that learns from the franchise player in Crosby.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think this team getting a player that can slot into 2C or a top six winger role potentially next year and be a 40-50 pt player with Sid and Geno is much more beneficial to the long term and short term than Schaefer.

completely disagree but whatever

All a guessing game

 

[SEALBound]

I'm talking different rankings and thoughts on 1 player. Like in the Bobfather's article, 2 scouts think Martone is the 2nd best, others think he's lower down. Same goes for differences of opinions on various players' individual strengths and weaknesses.

Yeah, that's kinda what I said.

 

[SEALBound]

The thing is this team isn’t finishing last so that means you are burning a lottery move.

Hypothetically I’d rather get a C prospect at 4 like Hagens or Frondell and then potentially move up in a few years.

This would indeed be the preferable route. I want those "lottery wins" to be available in 26 for McKenna and 27 for DuPont.

No matter what, one will be open for McKenna so, while I would want it open for DuPont, IF we won it this year and took Schaefer, it would soften the blow of the DuPont miss. UNLESS we finish last overall that year which seems unlikely.

 

[Gurglesons]

completely disagree but whatever

All a guessing game

I think getting a player in the current system that can help bridge the team will be huge.

Otherwise you end up like a Chicago or Buffalo.

 

[Jacob]

Carter Bear suffered some kind of leg or ankle laceration. He’s generally ranked in the 9-15 range or so.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think getting a player in the current system that can help bridge the team will be huge.

Otherwise you end up like a Chicago or Buffalo.

The main reason I disagree is I think getting the best player who should be all situations 1D for decade plus in draft is fantastic in both long and short term.

(Also I think it’s a stretch for anyone to come in and play 2C well at 18. I wouldn’t have anyone in NHL next year from this class)

I can’t see future though, anything is possible. If we end up drafting 4th and whoever we take becomes better than Schaefer, that’s great and it’s not that wild to say

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Carter Bear suffered some kind of leg or ankle laceration. He’s generally ranked in the 9-15 range or so.

Shit, hope it's not too serious. He's one of the guys I had on the radar for the Rangers pick if it ends up being this draft.

 

[Gurglesons]

Shit, hope it's not too serious. He's one of the guys I had on the radar for the Rangers pick if it ends up being this draft.

Might be helpful for us lol.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Nothing. It’s based on those 19 games. which is honestly a sample size im comfortable with. A bit of the u18 last year too where he was crazy young but still awesome and the Hlinka.

He was just absolutely ridiculous in those 19 games. He’ll be back this week (?) I believe too.

Only thing the lack of games makes me want is for him to go back to the OHL or go to college.

I can't remember any prospective #1 being ranked where Schaefer was prior - no #1 or #2, usually somewhere from #3 to #7 - and turning into a unanimous #1 based on less than 1/4 of a season.

Such an unprecedented situation leaves some room for doubt. Necas was NHL MVP this year based on a bigger sample size than that.

 

[Zirakzigil]

I'm just hoping the Penguins get lucky and win the draft lottery this year. I think Schaefer is probably NHL ready next year and this team's LD group is absolutely atrocious. This team still needs to be adding more, but Schaefer, Brunicke and Pickering as D prospects is a really nice start.

If they somehow managed to pull off Clarke for Rakell, I would have loved a long-term top-4 D of:

Schaefer-Brunicke
Pickering-Clarke

Schaefer would be a nice pick, but I am not sure I want the Pens burning a lottery win this season. I kind of want to see them draft 3/4 and pick up Hagens or Misa. One of those kids learning under Sid would be fantastic.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Schaefer would be a nice pick, but I am not sure I want the Pens burning a lottery win this season. I kind of want to see them draft 3/4 and pick up Hagens or Misa. One of those kids learning under Sid would be fantastic.

Not winning the lottery now doesn’t mean you’re going to win it in the future.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Not winning the lottery now doesn’t mean you’re going to win it in the future.

This is true, but we're talking in hypotheticals. If this team's dreaming of winning a draft lotto, this isn't the one to do it imo. Obviously not gonna turn my nose up at a free 1st overall, but it would be a bit of a bummer knowing the Pens couldn't move up to 1st overall in one of the McKenna or Dupont drafts.

But they *could* be bad enough to finish last in the league, and if they end up drafting first (not moving up) it doesn't count as a strike against the two in five years rule, as I understand it.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Not winning the lottery now doesn’t mean you’re going to win it in the future.

True. Draft #3 and take Misa/Hagens. Trade Rak and EK. Sign Ekblad, Marchant, Marner, Bennet. Draft McKenna with the Rangers pick next year and win the cup in 2026. Profit.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I can't remember any prospective #1 being ranked where Schaefer was prior - no #1 or #2, usually somewhere from #3 to #7 - and turning into a unanimous #1 based on less than 1/4 of a season.

Ok? It is happening. I cannot change that haha

 

[Andy99]

True. Draft #3 and take Misa/Hagens. Trade Rak and EK. Sign Ekblad, Marchant, Marner, Bennet. Draft McKenna with the Rangers pick next year and win the cup in 2026. Profit.

I can’t imagine one of these guys wanting to play here, let alone all four

 

[Zirakzigil]

I can’t imagine one of these guys wanting to play here, let alone all four

 

[Gurglesons]

Not winning the lottery now doesn’t mean you’re going to win it in the future.

Okay. But we are talking hypotheticals.

I think Hagens and Misa can have a bigger effect on *this* franchise specifically than Schaefer will.

Pittsburgh’s identity isn’t built on two way defensemen. It’s built on offensive center depth and has been since the 90s

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Ok? It is happening. I cannot change that haha

Never said consensus was going to change. Only that an argument could easily be made that its a "pick em" because of how unusual the situation is.

There are different arguments than the one to authority.

 

[Freeptop]

I was poking around on here: 2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon
And those percentages show that there is actually a greater chance of the Pens ending up with a worse pick after the lottery than a better one.

Which made me wonder - let's say the Pens ended up finishing with the 6th worst record, then both lottery draws end up pushing the Pens down two picks, resulting in the Pens getting the 8th overall pick.

Hypothetically speaking, if, say, the Canadiens offered the 12th overall and their other first (wherever it ends up being - the conditions are apparently rather complicated) for the Pens' 8th overall, do you take it?

 

[sovietsanta87]

Not winning the lottery now doesn’t mean you’re going to win it in the future.

Agreed. I think we’re a little too cavalier with the idea that this team will be bad enough to get McKenna or DuPont. Let alone both

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Never said consensus was going to change. Only that an argument could easily be made that its a "pick em" because of how unusual the situation is.

There are different arguments than the one to authority.

You can “easily” claim the field will be better than 1OA but that’s likely true every year

I’m not appealing to authority. Here’s my own analysis- Schaefer is pretty unique because he was more this mature, JayBo type last year. Elite skater who could eat minutes and be a rock defensively and in transition… but maybe a little lacking in the offense dept. Simple game. Watch the U18.

Then in games this year he’s just everywhere. All over the ice. Rushes, dangles. Go watch him. He added a completely different element to the point where he was maybe doing too much offensively at times. Scoring at a high rate.

So elite tools. Ridiculous development curve. Intangibles don’t necessarily matter for apples to apples but he’s high character (look up his story) and is barely in this draft age wise.

You haven’t once stated why Misa or Hagens is better from a play or development perspective. Present your argument for the alternative if you think it is better than Schaefer.

I worry Misa is a bit too jack of all trades and perhaps a winger although im feeling better about his skating lately and Hagens is great but a bit too quiet in my viewings this year. Worry about his ultimate upside. They or anyone else could of course end up better but I don’t see how you pass on Schaefer at the moment unless you are seeing something very unique in either’s game (which I don’t).

 

[Andy99]

I get excited thinking about our potential prospects, but then I remember that Mike Sullivan is here to ruin their development, and then I start drinking lol…

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You can “easily” claim the field will be better than 1OA but that’s likely true every year

I’m not appealing to authority. Here’s my own analysis- Schaefer is pretty unique because he was more this mature, JayBo type last year. Elite skater who could eat minutes and be a rock defensively and in transition… but maybe a little lacking in the offense dept. Simple game. Watch the U18.

Then in games this year he’s just everywhere. All over the ice. Rushes, dangles. Go watch him. He added a completely different element to the point where he was maybe doing too much offensively at times. Scoring at a high rate.

So elite tools. Ridiculous development curve. Intangibles don’t necessarily matter for apples to apples but he’s high character (look up his story) and is barely in this draft age wise.

You haven’t once stated why Misa or Hagens is better from a play or development perspective. Present your argument for the alternative if you think it is better than Schaefer.

I worry Misa is a bit too jack of all trades and perhaps a winger although im feeling better about his skating lately and Hagens is great but a bit too quiet in my viewings this year. Worry about his ultimate upside. They or anyone else could of course end up better but I don’t see how you pass on Schaefer at the moment unless you are seeing something very unique in either’s game (which I don’t).

I haven't had the chance to watch outside the WJCs. My doubt was only in terms of how sudden and drastically the rankings shifted, which really is unprecedented for how small the sample size was.

I have no doubt Schaefer looked incredible in the OHL this year. I only question for how long he's done it, and whether basing such a significant ranking change on so few games is wise. Bunting looked like a stellar fit on Malkin's line last year based on 21 games. A quarter season, however good, is still only a quarter season and may not be representative of a new normal. Meanwhile his competition's being judged on sustained performance this year.

 

[Gurglesons]

I get excited thinking about our potential prospects, but then I remember that Mike Sullivan is here to ruin their development, and then I start drinking lol…

I think Sully mismanaging a top five prospect would be a clear indictment that would lead to his separation tbh.

And who knows. If New York or Boston open this summer maybe he f***s off.