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Prospect Info: 2025 Draft discussion

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It might not end up that way in 10 years but yeah Schaefer is a very firm #1

McKenzie poll:
No play; no problem.

Even though Matthew Schaefer broke his collarbone while playing for Canada at the World Junior Championship - undergoing surgery to repair it on Dec. 30 - and won’t play another game until April, if at all this season, he cruised to the No. 1 spot in TSN’s Mid-Season 2025 NHL Draft Rankings.

It wasn’t particularly close either.

The Erie Otter defenceman was a unanimous No. 1 selection in TSN’s survey of 10 NHL club team scouts. The survey was conducted between Jan. 7-14 - after the WJC but just prior to the Ontario Hockey League Top Prospects and USA Hockey Top Prospects Games on Jan. 15 and 16, respectively.

“As far as I’m concerned,” one NHL head scout said, “[Schaefer] is No. 1 and he’s staying there - even if he never plays another game this season.”

It was a common refrain.

Not only did Schaefer garner all 10 first-place votes, seven of the 10 scouts declared there is a “substantial” gap between the Stoney Creek, Ont., native and the rest of the 2025 draft class. Two others described the gap as “moderate,” but one said it was only “minuscule.”
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HP.com: “Matthew Schaefer of the Erie Otters is still our top-ranked prospect for the 2025 NHL Draft, and barring something unforeseen, we expect him to remain our top prospect on our final ranking in June.”

Brock Otten (who loves Misa): “For me, Schaefer should be the first overall pick this year.”

If you get the 1OA and do not go Schaefer you are a wild man and better get it right.
 
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I'm not saying this to dismiss Misa, but I think the thing that should cause people to be cautious with reading too much into his production is looking at the rest of his team. Parekh is also on that team, he put up 33 goals and 96 points in 66 games in his draft year and went #9 in the draft last year. From doing a bit of reading, it seems like that was a reach too. He has 32 goals and 101 points in 58 games this year, but he didn't even make Canada's WJC team.

I don't mean that as in "Misa has help", but it's pretty obvious that Saginaw's play style is completely focused on putting up massive numbers. Saginaw is 1st in goals for and 5th in goals against in the OHL, which is why they're a significant step down from the legit contenders in the OHL. If they ended up drafting Misa, I'd be fully supportive of getting him off of Saginaw and onto a legit NCAA team that would probably develop his all-around game better.
 
Yeah, if you win the lottery at get #1, you take Schaefer. If you get #2, that's where the discussion starts. I firmly take Misa.

I will say that I do think who goes #1 (and the top 5 draft order in general) will depend on the draft team order. I can see Chicago taking Hagens, Martone, or Misa over Schaefer. I can see SJS taking Martone. I can see Nashville taking Hagens or Misa.

Someone said something interesting about Martone that has been rolling around in my head. They said something to the effect of "Martone is the kind of guy you love and want on your team but teams don't draft them." Not a knock on them but we can looking the Tkachuk brothers and see that, Matthew more so than Brady.
 
lokomotiv15 said:
I feel like I might be a bit out to lunch on Martone as not challenging for a top 2 spot. I stand on my opinions, but a bunch of people I've spoken to seem higher on him as a play driver than me and A LOT higher on his physicality.

Im going to try to catch him live a few more times, hopefully in some playoff games, before the end of the season.
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Brampton 6-foot-2 3/4, 208-pound winger Martone remains in the No. 4 slot, where he was in September. He didn’t play particularly well for Canada at the WJC — he was not alone on that front — but draft-eligible players are rarely penalized for failing to make an impact at the WJC.
His blend of size and belligerence, to go along with his shooting ability and nose for the net, is highly coveted. Two scouts ranked him second overall behind only Schaefer; three others had him at No. 3 and the rest at No. 4.
www.tsn.ca

Matthew Schaefer a unanimous No. 1 in Bob McKenzie's Mid-season NHL Draft Ranking | TSN

"As far as I’m concerned,” one NHL head scout said, “[Matthew Schaefer] is No. 1 and he’s staying there - even if he never plays another game this season."
www.tsn.ca www.tsn.ca
Seems you ask 10 different scouts, you get at least 5 different opinions on players ha. Even the paid ones.
 
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lokomotiv15 said:
I feel like I might be a bit out to lunch on Martone as not challenging for a top 2 spot. I stand on my opinions, but a bunch of people I've spoken to seem higher on him as a play driver than me and A LOT higher on his physicality.

Im going to try to catch him live a few more times, hopefully in some playoff games, before the end of the season.
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I was reading a bit of that Misa thread and I noticed quite a few people were saying that Martone looked substantially better than Misa when the two were playing together.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I was reading a bit of that Misa thread and I noticed quite a few people were saying that Martone looked substantially better than Misa when the two were playing together.
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Hmm interesting. Were they talking in a head-to-head capacity or for the U17 National team/ U18 Hlinka teams? Misa has out-produced Martone on a pure numbers basis every time they've played together, but I can see this being a discussion where "intagibles" are a real thing to seperate the two, based on the package Martone brings.
 
lokomotiv15 said:
Hmm interesting. Were they talking in a head-to-head capacity or for the U17 National team/ U18 Hlinka teams? Misa has out-produced Martone on a pure numbers basis every time they've played together, but I can see this being a discussion where "intagibles" are a real thing to seperate the two, based on the package Martone brings.
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Think it was when they were playing together, specifically when those two and Desnoyers were playing together. The comments were that Martone looked much more like the play driver there.
 
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Ulf5 said:
Brampton 6-foot-2 3/4, 208-pound winger Martone remains in the No. 4 slot, where he was in September. He didn’t play particularly well for Canada at the WJC — he was not alone on that front — but draft-eligible players are rarely penalized for failing to make an impact at the WJC.
His blend of size and belligerence, to go along with his shooting ability and nose for the net, is highly coveted. Two scouts ranked him second overall behind only Schaefer; three others had him at No. 3 and the rest at No. 4.
www.tsn.ca

Matthew Schaefer a unanimous No. 1 in Bob McKenzie's Mid-season NHL Draft Ranking | TSN

"As far as I’m concerned,” one NHL head scout said, “[Matthew Schaefer] is No. 1 and he’s staying there - even if he never plays another game this season."
www.tsn.ca www.tsn.ca
Seems you ask 10 different scouts, you get at least 5 different opinions on players ha. Even the paid ones.
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Yeah each of them have their own strengths. I mean, if you had to choose between the following NHL players to start your team, who would you pick:

Adam Fox
Jack Hughes
Mitch Marner
Matthew Tkachuk
Alexander Barkov

That's roughly what the 5 teams are looking at using "ultra potential reached" equivalents. That's why I've said I think it might come down to the actual team and what they feel their roster needs are.
 
Gurglesons said:
If we have 1st overall, I agree.

Just saying I think Misa / Hagens puts us in the best position moving forward.
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Don’t think that’s unreasonable

But not sure I agree. I’d say Pickering and Brunicke look like 4/5D types today.

I would say we have no prospects that project as a 1C, 2C (or 3C really). But I’d also say we have no prospects that project as a 1-3D.

So I’d just take the best player. And I think that’s Schaefer this year.
 
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CheckingLineCenter said:
Don’t think that’s unreasonable

But not sure I agree. I’d say Pickering and Brunicke look like 4/5D types today.

I would say we have no prospects that project as a 1C, 2C (or 3C really). But I’d also say we have no prospects that project as a 1-3D.

So I’d just take the best player. And I think that’s Schaefer this year.
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I think Broz projects as a 3C…
 
We also have Novak who is only 27. I would say he is about our best 3C at the moment and could easily be there for the next 6-7 years if all goes well. After that, Broz and Pono, if they reach their potential could easily be 3Cs.

That's why I suggested targeting Cole McKinney. He's trending well to be a great 2-way 3C.
 
CheckingLineCenter said:
Don’t think that’s unreasonable

But not sure I agree. I’d say Pickering and Brunicke look like 4/5D types today.

I would say we have no prospects that project as a 1C, 2C (or 3C really). But I’d also say we have no prospects that project as a 1-3D.

So I’d just take the best player. And I think that’s Schaefer this year.
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Not sure I fully agree with you regarding Brunicke. I think he could have #2/3D upside. Pickering I agree with you though, he firmly looks like a #4 DFD partner for a good OFD.
 
CheckingLineCenter said:
Don’t think that’s unreasonable

But not sure I agree. I’d say Pickering and Brunicke look like 4/5D types today.

I would say we have no prospects that project as a 1C, 2C (or 3C really). But I’d also say we have no prospects that project as a 1-3D.

So I’d just take the best player. And I think that’s Schaefer this year.
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The thing is this team isn’t finishing last so that means you are burning a lottery move.

Hypothetically I’d rather get a C prospect at 4 like Hagens or Frondell and then potentially move up in a few years.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
No you really can't. It's universally accepted by scouts that Schaefer is the clear #1 pick in this draft.
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I know. I'm just saying the sample size is miniscule.

Outside of 17 OHL games and 2 WJC games this year, what is the unanimous #1 status based on? Because he was not #1 going into this year, let alone unanimous.
 
SEALBound said:
Yeah each of them have their own strengths. I mean, if you had to choose between the following NHL players to start your team, who would you pick:

Adam Fox
Jack Hughes
Mitch Marner
Matthew Tkachuk
Alexander Barkov

That's roughly what the 5 teams are looking at using "ultra potential reached" equivalents. That's why I've said I think it might come down to the actual team and what they feel their roster needs are.
Click to expand...
I'm talking different rankings and thoughts on 1 player. Like in the Bobfather's article, 2 scouts think Martone is the 2nd best, others think he's lower down. Same goes for differences of opinions on various players' individual strengths and weaknesses.
 
Dipsy Doodle said:
Outside of 17 OHL games and 2 WJC games this year, what is the unanimous #1 status based on? Because he was not #1 going into this year, let alone unanimous.
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Nothing. It’s based on those 19 games. which is honestly a sample size im comfortable with. A bit of the u18 last year too where he was crazy young but still awesome and the Hlinka.

He was just absolutely ridiculous in those 19 games. He’ll be back this week (?) I believe too.

Only thing the lack of games makes me want is for him to go back to the OHL or go to college.
 
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