Prospect Info: 2025 Draft discussion

[CheckingLineCenter]

I feel like every time some scout says a player has bad skating, they always look fine when you look at an aggregate. Nothing scientific here or anything, but I don't think I've seen a prospect whose skating has legitimately kept them from the NHL in a long time-- it's usually something else + not elite skating.

I think overall - skating has gotten a lot better where there’s very few truly bad skaters having enough early success to be on draft radars in major junior or the NCAA.

But I do think the NHL is getting so good where it’s fair to pick at a guy with mid skating. It’s probably not the sole reason they could bust but the half second he loses bc he can’t escape defenders or get to loose pucks may be the difference in him playing 400 games vs 50 games in the NHL. Or maybe being a 3rd liner instead of a 1st liner. I think Poulin is a great example of a guy who could carry the puck his whole life, win battles, and kinda do what he wanted and have the puck a lot. Moment he gets to the NHL he doesn’t have the extra gear to play that way and doesn’t have another elite tool to fall back on.

That said: Fernstrom doesn’t seem uber reliant on winning with 1v1 play or having the puck on his stick from the little I’ve seen and seems to understand his limitations (good at finding space without the puck) so im not very worried about his skating.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think overall - skating has gotten a lot better where there’s very few truly bad skaters having enough early success to be on draft radars in major junior or the NCAA.

But I do think the NHL is getting so good where it’s fair to pick at a guy with mid skating. It’s probably not the sole reason they could bust but the half second he loses bc he can’t escape defenders or get to loose pucks may be the difference in him playing 400 games vs 50 games in the NHL. Or maybe being a 3rd liner instead of a 1st liner. I think Poulin is a great example of a guy who could carry the puck his whole life, win battles, and kinda do what he wanted and have the puck a lot. Moment he gets to the NHL he doesn’t have the extra gear to play that way and doesn’t have another elite tool to fall back on.

That said: Fernstrom doesn’t seem uber reliant on winning with 1v1 play or having the puck on his stick from the little I’ve seen and seems to understand his limitations (good at finding space without the puck) so im not very worried about his skating.

Yeah I think that's the real killer with Poulin. There was an article when Puljujarvi got waived about how Puljujarvi's issue is that he's not versatile and doesn't offer anything special to solidify himself a lineup spot, despite being a good 5v5 player overall. Poulin's an even more extreme example of that, he's such a "jack of all trades" player that it's not really obvious what purpose he'd be filling at the NHL level.

He could be a bottom-6 defensive center, but you probably have guys who are better defensively than him. He can be a PP net front guy, but you probably have guys who are better net front guys than him. He can be a complementary piece on a scoring line, but you probably have more talented or more physical guys than him that can fill more specific roles (like sniper, puck retriever, net front guy and whatnot).

I don't know that having that extra step would really help him much, but I think it's very evident why Poulin hasn't and likely won't work out as a NHLer.

 

[SEALBound]

Either the next Petr Sykora or the next Nathan Legare

I was just about to point out that a 3rd round pick with a quality shot with skating questions is merely Legare. Hopefully it works out better for him.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah I think that's the real killer with Poulin. There was an article when Puljujarvi got waived about how Puljujarvi's issue is that he's not versatile and doesn't offer anything special to solidify himself a lineup spot, despite being a good 5v5 player overall. Poulin's an even more extreme example of that, he's such a "jack of all trades" player that it's not really obvious what purpose he'd be filling at the NHL level.

He could be a bottom-6 defensive center, but you probably have guys who are better defensively than him. He can be a PP net front guy, but you probably have guys who are better net front guys than him. He can be a complementary piece on a scoring line, but you probably have more talented or more physical guys than him that can fill more specific roles (like sniper, puck retriever, net front guy and whatnot).

I don't know that having that extra step would really help him much, but I think it's very evident why Poulin hasn't and likely won't work out as a NHLer.

Mike Sullivan is his coach?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Mike Sullivan is his coach?

This is the prospect thread not "bitch about Mike Sullivan" thread.

 

[Gurglesons]

Quick question. Why are we talking about 2024 prospects in the 2025 draft thread?

Is it because you old Andy?

This is the prospect thread not "bitch about Mike Sullivan" thread.

This is actually the 2025 draft thread.

 

[cookthebooks]

I was just about to point out that a 3rd round pick with a quality shot with skating questions is merely Legare. Hopefully it works out better for him.

isnt the difference having two good nhl projectable traits? i think legare was a big enough guy who tried hard but didnt really have plus hockey iq or anything, it really was just the shot?

 

[HandshakeLine]

This is the prospect thread not "bitch about Mike Sullivan" thread.

I can't imagine how the two might be related.

On a similar note, did you know water and ice are the same chemical? Wonders abound.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Since speed has been a discussion -- some evidence you don't need to be a burner to be good, though you better have some skill.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Since speed has been a discussion -- some evidence you don't need to be a burner to be good, though you better have some skill.

Yeah. I know we pay lipservice to the idea that the game keeps getting faster, but like @CheckingLineCenter said, the baseline of NHL skating is so much better than it was 20 years ago that there's less and less difference between average guys or even slow guys and the top skaters. Fast guys are still fast, but speed alone isn't as much of a gamebreaker or hurdle.

Also lol that Acciari is one of the league's slowest forwards.

 

[Pancakes]

Since speed has been a discussion -- some evidence you don't need to be a burner to be good, though you better have some skill.

Stone and Tkachuck are incredibly gritty players. Even aside from their skill those guys just battle insanely hard.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Stone and Tkachuck are incredibly gritty players. Even aside from their skill those guys just battle insanely hard.

Which is why I think that focusing for so long on fast guys who do nothing was incredibly damaging to this team. We weren't a good club because Pascal Dupuis or Hagelin or whoever was on the club, we were a good club because Sid and Geno are generational centers.

Slow guys are fine as long as they play a game where the slowness isn't a hinderance-- think physical gritty guys, Hornqvist 2.0, whatever.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I saw a post from @Gurglesons in the GDT about Desnoyers, so I wanted to bring it in here to keep it thread appropriate. I've really liked what I've read about Desnoyers, but something that made me uneasy was reading McKenzie's write-up of him:

No. 6: Caleb Desnoyers. The Moncton Wildcat is viewed as perhaps the most complete two-way centre in the draft who projects in the NHL as a second-line centre or, worst case scenario, an elite third-line shutdown centre.

“Think a Phil Danault-style player,” said one scout.

Desnoyers was ranked as high as No. 5 by one scout and no lower than No. 10. He’s viewed as a safe and secure pick. If you believe his offence will pop at the pro level, he’s a top five consideration.

It's not that he's necessarily a bad pick, but he seems to have a fairly low upside for a guy you're taking in the 6-9 range in the draft. Granted Desnoyers is producing really well in the Q this year, but there seems to be a lot of skepticism about how high his offensive upside is. Whether that offense clicks seems to be the difference for whether he ends up Danault caliber or Kopitar caliber.

I'd still be happy with taking him because he does seem like a safe pick and has legit 1C upside if his offense translates, but the talk of "elite 3C" out of a top-10 pick does make me a bit hesitant. It feels similar to the Penguins drafting Staal, but the next generation isn't going to have Crosby and Malkin to carry the offense.

 

[Andy99]

I saw a post from @Gurglesons in the GDT about Desnoyers, so I wanted to bring it in here to keep it thread appropriate. I've really liked what I've read about Desnoyers, but something that made me uneasy was reading McKenzie's write-up of him:



It's not that he's necessarily a bad pick, but he seems to have a fairly low upside for a guy you're taking in the 6-9 range in the draft. Granted Desnoyers is producing really well in the Q this year, but there seems to be a lot of skepticism about how high his offensive upside is. Whether that offense clicks seems to be the difference for whether he ends up Danault caliber or Kopitar caliber.

I'd still be happy with taking him because he does seem like a safe pick and has legit 1C upside if his offense translates, but the talk of "elite 3C" out of a top-10 pick does make me a bit hesitant. It feels similar to the Penguins drafting Staal, but the next generation isn't going to have Crosby and Malkin to carry the offense.

Yeah, not interested in taking a 3C in the top 10…we need to take high offensive skill players there…we already suck balls at finishing lol

 

[The Old Master]

I'd still be happy with taking him because he does seem like a safe pick and has legit 1C upside if his offense translates, but the talk of "elite 3C" out of a top-10 pick does make me a bit hesitant. It feels similar to the Penguins drafting Staal, but the next generation isn't going to have Crosby and Malkin to carry the offense.

i don't think we are at the place to be making "safe picks". i'm all swing for the fence or nothing.  safe picks are for teams that allready have their core. imo

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, not interested in taking a 3C in the top 10…we need to take high offensive skill players there…we already suck balls at finishing lol

The issue is is there really aren't any high upside offensive players in the 6-10 range this year. That's why I've been considering trading the Rangers 1st (if it's like at #20 this year) plus the Penguins 1st to get into the top-3 and draft either Hagens or Misa.

The guys projected to go after the top-4 are:

5. Frondell
6. Desnoyers
7. McQueen
8. Eklund
9. O'Brien
10. Smith

And the scouting reports on all of those guys don't really scream "high offensive skill players". I think O'Brien is probably the closest one:

No. 9: Jake O’Brien. The Brantford Bulldogs 6-foot-2 centre has elite hockey sense, high-end playmaking ability and is a wizard on the half wall on the power play. He has moved up from No. 14 on the pre-season list. The scouts ranked him as high as sixth and as low as 17th.

But O'Brien is consistently ranked lower than this in a lot of scouting sources, so he could easily be overdrafted here if the Penguins are taking him.

If they're sitting in the 6-9 range, I think Desnoyers is the correct choice. But like I said, I have some concerns with the pick still.

 

[The Old Master]

The issue is is there really aren't any high upside offensive players in the 6-10 range this year. That's why I've been considering trading the Rangers 1st (if it's like at #20 this year) plus the Penguins 1st to get into the top-3 and draft either Hagens or Misa.

or moving the pick to next year's draft that could be a much deeper

 

[Empoleon8771]

or moving the pick to next year's draft that could be a much deeper

The only way that pick slides to 2026 is if the Rangers are picking in the top-13. If it's #20 overall, they have to take it this year.

If the pick falls this year, the ideal outcome is to either package the two picks to get Misa or Hagens or to end up drafting Desnoyers with the Penguins 1st and either O'Brien, Bear or Ryabkin with the Rangers 1st IMO.

 

[Gurglesons]

i don't think we are at the place to be making "safe picks". i'm all swing for the fence or nothing.  safe picks are for teams that allready have their core. imo

I actually disagree completely.

The Pens need to hit on this pick.

Unless we get Hagens or Schaefer we likely aren’t getting a core piece in this draft. So get the Ryan Malone or Ryan Whitney that you know will be an NHLer.

 

[PensFutures]

Pick the C with the most offensive upside, its the one thing our prospect pool is really lacking.

 

[Gurglesons]

Pick the C with the most offensive upside, its the one thing our prospect pool is really lacking.

I mean I think every position is lacking when it comes to actual top ten talent.

 

[eXile3]

Stone and Tkachuck are incredibly gritty players. Even aside from their skill those guys just battle insanely hard.

Kaprisov is also not the quickest but one of the best in the league.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Just read a scouting report about Jackson Smith and this is what one website said:

Overall, Jackson Smith is going to need a team that is patient enough to let him develop as a skater. His lack of discipline may derail that, but if everything is to go right in his development, his upside is to become a Noah Juulsen-style player.

Saying that a top-10 projected pick has the upside of Noah Juulsen is pretty crazy. After the top-4 it seems like alot of these guys are being projected as bottom-6/bottom pair guys. Really hope the Rags pick ends up being in 2026

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think this draft is a good one to prioritize offensive upside with their 1st. With the Rangers 1st, sure you can likely go with someone like O'Brien, Ryabkin or Bear based on the idea of going for all upside. But where the Penguins 1st is going to be sitting, there really isn't a "high offensive upside" player unless you want to get super risky with McQueen.

Frondell and Desnoyers both look like 2-way centers with uncertain offensive upside. Eklund is a high motor winger with skill, but doesn't project to be a "high offensive upside" type of player. Beyond the top-4 guys and those 4, anyone after is probably a reach in the top-10.

I personally like Desnoyers and Eklund, so I'd be satisfied with either, but I think both are kinda weak top-10 picks that are about on par with McGroarty as prospects.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I actually disagree completely.

The Pens need to hit on this pick.

Unless we get Hagens or Schaefer we likely aren’t getting a core piece in this draft. So get the Ryan Malone or Ryan Whitney that you know will be an NHLer.

I don’t mind getting a Whitney or Malone but the key part of those guys is getting rid of them at the right time. Whitney for Kunitz is still a banger of a trade.