2025 DRAFT Discussion

[theVladiator]

Can I ask why you have Mrtka 2 tiers above Smith and why you don’t think Smith is exciting?

The difference between tier 1 and 2 is the likelihood of availability. I'd break down this group of 10 differently if it were straight up ranking.

As for difference between Mrtka and Smith, the profiles perhaps are similar, but I just see Mrtka's tools as a bit better. Enough to see a meaningful top-pairing chance, whereas I think it would be too much to expect from Smith. That kills the excitement . That's all I got, arbitrary and highly subjective differentiation. But like I said would still be a solid solid pick IMO, a front-runner from that "realistically available" group for me.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

We were doing so good with agreeing on this draft class…

But yeah, I strongly disagree with this.

I think Hagens has significantly more upside and would have him in a tier above Desnoyers.

I partially agree.

They’re different players. Hagens is more “skilled” as in, flashier. Will he be as effective? I don’t know. I think with his frame there’s a lower likelihood of him reaching that perceived superstar ceiling. I’m also very cautious of draft fallers. I think it would be an interesting project to look back at drafts as far as 2010 to track players ranked high at the beginning of the year but fell at the draft. (Zadina, Raty, potentially Hagens, etc.)

Desnoyers isn’t a sexy pick. He might be a Barret Hayton or at best a PLD. But I also think he’s got low chance of busting, even if he’s at best a high end 3rd liner. He’s still going to be a valuable player whether he’s a 40 point guy or a 60-70 point guy.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The difference between tier 1 and 2 is the likelihood of availability. I'd break down this group of 10 differently if it were straight up ranking.

As for difference between Mrtka and Smith, the profiles perhaps are similar, but I just see Mrtka's tools as a bit better. Enough to see a meaningful top-pairing chance, whereas I think it would be too much to expect from Smith. That kills the excitement . That's all I got, arbitrary and highly subjective differentiation. But like I said would still be a solid solid pick IMO, a front-runner from that "realistically available" group for me.

Mrtka’s brains seem mushy to me.

 

[theVladiator]

Mrtka’s brains seem mushy to me.

That very well may be, but I do not think the chances of Mrtka making it to 12 are high enough to make it an interesting topic.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That very well may be, but I do not think the chances of Mrtka making it to 12 are high enough to make it an interesting topic.

I’m counting on someone gambling on Mrtka so a better forward falls to Detroit. He’s a shield for us to get Eklund or O’Brien.

 

[theVladiator]

I’m counting on someone gambling on Mrtka so a better forward falls to Detroit. He’s a shield for us to get Eklund or O’Brien.

I suppose we have common ground in the sense we both would pick O'Brien before Mrtka. Nonetheless, it's a moot point for me. I just do not see either being available at 12. Eklund on the other hand, I think there is a small chance of him being there.

 

[Frk It]

The difference between tier 1 and 2 is the likelihood of availability. I'd break down this group of 10 differently if it were straight up ranking.

As for difference between Mrtka and Smith, the profiles perhaps are similar, but I just see Mrtka's tools as a bit better. Enough to see a meaningful top-pairing chance, whereas I think it would be too much to expect from Smith. That kills the excitement . That's all I got, arbitrary and highly subjective differentiation. But like I said would still be a solid solid pick IMO, a front-runner from that "realistically available" group for me.

I haven't watched a ton of these guys, so take this for what it's worth.

But I see Mrtka as more of a defenseive defenseman at the next level, despite the production he was able to put up this year. I think he is kind of in the same vein as a guy like Brandon Carlo. Although if everything hits right, I could see him being like Travis Sanheim. But he plays a pretty straightforward game. I don't really see the puck skills or big shot you normally see for a guy projected to go top 15. But he will probably be a guy that can eat a lot of minutes for you.

With Smith, I see an offensive defenseman who has very evident puck skills and good skating paired with a bigger frame. But he does not have the best IQ, and might not be a guy you can play in all situations. So he has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than Mrtka for me. I would draft him ahead of Mrtka, but I 100% understand why some wouldn't. He kind of reminds me of Jake Bean from the 2016 draft. Or if everything goes right for him he could maybe be like Morgan Rielly.

 

[Fyodorov]

I partially agree.

They’re different players. Hagens is more “skilled” as in, flashier. Will he be as effective? I don’t know. I think with his frame there’s a lower likelihood of him reaching that perceived superstar ceiling. I’m also very cautious of draft fallers. I think it would be an interesting project to look back at drafts as far as 2010 to track players ranked high at the beginning of the year but fell at the draft. (Zadina, Raty, potentially Hagens, etc.)

Desnoyers isn’t a sexy pick. He might be a Barret Hayton or at best a PLD. But I also think he’s got low chance of busting, even if he’s at best a high end 3rd liner. He’s still going to be a valuable player whether he’s a 40 point guy or a 60-70 point guy.

I would say this is a stretch. We are talking like a "fall" to 3 or 5 instead of 1st, not like Raty.

 

[Frk It]

I partially agree.

They’re different players. Hagens is more “skilled” as in, flashier. Will he be as effective? I don’t know. I think with his frame there’s a lower likelihood of him reaching that perceived superstar ceiling. I’m also very cautious of draft fallers. I think it would be an interesting project to look back at drafts as far as 2010 to track players ranked high at the beginning of the year but fell at the draft. (Zadina, Raty, potentially Hagens, etc.)

Desnoyers isn’t a sexy pick. He might be a Barret Hayton or at best a PLD. But I also think he’s got low chance of busting, even if he’s at best a high end 3rd liner. He’s still going to be a valuable player whether he’s a 40 point guy or a 60-70 point guy.

I mean if Hagens falls from 1 to 4, that is not that big of a tumble. It is not even in the same stratosphere as what happened with Raty. But yeah, I get your overall point here. Desnoyers might have a higher floor than Hagens. But if I am drafting top 5 I want upside, and Hagens has way more of that IMO. Playing in the NCAA is tough in your draft year. I remember everyone being super critical of Brady Tkachuk, and look how that turned out.

I think Desnoyers will go closer to 10 than 1. I could see him being a good pro. I am just not sure how many points he will put up, I think he will be held back a bit by his shot.

 

[wingsfannnn9191]

I’m counting on someone gambling on Mrtka so a better forward falls to Detroit. He’s a shield for us to get Eklund or O’Brien.

At 12? Better chance of us winning the cup next year than those 2 being there even with mrtka picked

 

[theVladiator]

I haven't watched a ton of these guys, so take this for what it's worth.

But I see Mrtka as more of a defenseive defenseman at the next level, despite the production he was able to put up this year. I think he is kind of in the same vein as a guy like Brandon Carlo. Although if everything hits right, I could see him being like Travis Sanheim. But he plays a pretty straightforward game. I don't really see the puck skills or big shot you normally see for a guy projected to go top 15. But he will probably be a guy that can eat a lot of minutes for you.

With Smith, I see an offensive defenseman who has very evident puck skills and good skating paired with a bigger frame. But he does not have the best IQ, and might not be a guy you can play in all situations. So he has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than Mrtka for me. I would draft him ahead of Mrtka, but I 100% understand why some wouldn't. He kind of reminds me of Jake Bean from the 2016 draft. Or if everything goes right for him he could maybe be like Morgan Rielly.

Thank you for the thorough explanation. You make a good argument, and came really close to changing my mind and flipping the two. They really aren't that far apart as my tier grouping would suggest (for example, I'd pick Eklund/Lakovic before Mrtka, but I think Mrtka will be gone before they are picked).

I suppose I do not see either Mrtka or Smith as the goto puck carrier realistically at the next level. So Smith's advantage in skating will not be as beneficial as it is in the offensive role. And I think you agree that Mrtka's defensive game is more projectable.

 

[newfy]

Pronman did a mock and had Detroit taking Nesbitt. Ive said I think hes gonna rise on lists after the playoffs but I'm not sold on that completely. He also said to look out for a dman since theyve taken a lot of centers lately

 

[Henkka]

At some early lists I had Sascha Boumedienne pretty high, at out pick range ~15th overall.

Guy did just put 1+5=6 points at one game at U18 WJC tournament opener for Sweden.

Big 6'2 left-handed defenceman.

Sascha Boumedienne - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Sascha Boumedienne, 2007-01-17 Oulu, FIN Sweden. Most recently in the NCAA with Boston Univ.. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Sascha is pretty North American, because his father Josef Boumedienne did work for Columbus Blue Jackets as European Scouting Director (family lived at Ohio at least for last 4 years), and currently is Team Sweden GM for 4 Nations, World Championships and Olympics. Sascha was born in Finland, because his dad played in here that time, but is representing Sweden at National level.

His father also played for Tappara at 90's and he was my ultimate favourite as very physical defenceman like Konstantinov (at Liiga level).

Hope this kid has something like that in him, but he seems to be very skilled defenceman. Think it would make our D-corps deadly good, if drafting him.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Pronman did a mock and had Detroit taking Nesbitt. Ive said I think hes gonna rise on lists after the playoffs but I'm not sold on that completely. He also said to look out for a dman since theyve taken a lot of centers lately

At 12 or trading back? I hope a trade back..

 

[schuelma24]

At 12 or trading back? I hope a trade back..

at 12 with us passing on Jackson Smith, which I don't see happening (him being available at 12 and us passing on him if he somehow is).

 

[wingsfannnn9191]

At 12 or trading back? I hope a trade back..

We tried to trade back apparently when we took Seider but edm were interested. So long as we don’t draft someone ranked 32 at 12 and don’t trade back I don’t care if we select some guy ranked 18. No point risking losing the guy we like

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Pronman did a mock and had Detroit taking Nesbitt. Ive said I think hes gonna rise on lists after the playoffs but I'm not sold on that completely. He also said to look out for a dman since theyve taken a lot of centers lately

I think he rises too. This simply isn't a good class. The players you would be passing on to take Nesbitt at 12 just aren't that impactful and none project as centers. I can see the case for just taking him at 12 and being done with it.

 

[schuelma24]

I think he rises too. This simply isn't a good class. The players you would be passing on to take Nesbitt at 12 just aren't that impactful and none project as centers. I can see the case for just taking him at 12 and being done with it.

He has Eklund going at #9 right now but I can see him falling to the Wings given teams prioritizing C's and D's.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

He has Eklund going at #9 right now but I can see him falling to the Wings given teams prioritizing C's and D's.

There’s a good chance Eklund falls like Benson. Smith, Mrtka and Schaeffer are D I expect to be in the top 10 so that would help push a good winger to us. Hell, maybe even Aitcheson goes top 10.

Misa
Schaeffer
Frondell
Desnoyer
Hagens
Mrtka
O’Brien
Martone
Smith
Aitcheson

That’s kind of how I expect the top 10 to fall.

If Eklund goes at 11 then maybe we trade 12 for 16 and 17?

And who knows? Maybe Buffalo is dumb enough to take 16 and 17 in return for one of their young wingers and Byram or Power?

 

[schuelma24]

There’s a good chance Eklund falls like Benson. Smith, Mrtka and Schaeffer are D I expect to be in the top 10 so that would help push a good winger to us. Hell, maybe even Aitcheson goes top 10.

Misa
Schaeffer
Frondell
Desnoyer
Hagens
Mrtka
O’Brien
Martone
Smith
Aitcheson

That’s kind of how I expect the top 10 to fall.

If Eklund goes at 11 then maybe we trade 12 for 16 and 17?

And who knows? Maybe Buffalo is dumb enough to take 16 and 17 in return for one of their young wingers and Byram or Power?

Yeah that's basically what I have as well - McQueen is the wildcard IMO. I feel like some team before Detroit is going to want to take a swing (Islanders?). In which case Eklund falls to 12. Heck I could see a team reaching for another C over Eklund - Martin or Nesbitt.

And I'd love to try and fleece Buffalo. Lots of intriguing young pieces that clearly aren't working together. Heck I'd take a swing at Quinn as a reclamation project if the price wasn't steep.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

He has Eklund going at #9 right now but I can see him falling to the Wings given teams prioritizing C's and D's.

That wouldn't shock me, but I am also not planning on it if that makes any sense. If it does, I think it means that four defensemen have gone in the top 10 and/or Martin or Bear have gone in the top 10.

I would probably have a hard time passing on Eklund at 12 if push came to shove.

 

[schuelma24]

That wouldn't shock me, but I am also not planning on it if that makes any sense. If it does, I think it means that four defensemen have gone in the top 10 and/or Martin or Bear have gone in the top 10.

I would probably have a hard time passing on Eklund at 12 if push came to shove.

If I'm looking at things correctly, you'd need all 3 D's to go, and McQueen to go before 12. I would agree it's not likely, but I think it's certainly very possible.

 

[Frk It]

Pronman did a mock and had Detroit taking Nesbitt. Ive said I think hes gonna rise on lists after the playoffs but I'm not sold on that completely. He also said to look out for a dman since theyve taken a lot of centers lately

I would be pretty surprised if they took Nesbitt over Martin. I think they are going to be pretty high on Martin.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I would be pretty surprised if they took Nesbitt over Martin. I think they are going to be pretty high on Martin.

I agree. I think hockey folk value Martin more than fans do. I am not sure he is a center long-term though.

 

[wingsfannnn9191]

There’s a good chance Eklund falls like Benson. Smith, Mrtka and Schaeffer are D I expect to be in the top 10 so that would help push a good winger to us. Hell, maybe even Aitcheson goes top 10.

Misa
Schaeffer
Frondell
Desnoyer
Hagens
Mrtka
O’Brien
Martone
Smith
Aitcheson

That’s kind of how I expect the top 10 to fall.

If Eklund goes at 11 then maybe we trade 12 for 16 and 17?

And who knows? Maybe Buffalo is dumb enough to take 16 and 17 in return for one of their young wingers and Byram or Power?

Eklund wont be there at 12 no matter how much you want it to happen