Prospect Info: 2025 draft discussion

[lilidk]

If team looking good in the next couple of games, id trade our first+ couple of plugs for someone very good, same time bring Soderblom up

 

[Frk It]

What's the deal with Jack Nesbitt? 6'4" center ranked in the teens by Central Scouting and Craig Button.

Here is a write-up from Brock Otten who covers the OHL. Seems like he is on an upward trajectory. Sounds interesting to me....

8. Jack Nesbitt - Center - Windsor Spitfires
One of the OHL's most improved players this year and it has him in the early first round conversation IMO. The big, power center has a very clear understanding of how he needs to play in order to be successful and that's refreshing. He's dominating near the crease this year; a very tough tie up for opposing defenders. His hands are terrific and he's having no trouble putting away second chance opportunities or redirecting shots. He's going to be a really good powerplay presence in this league and perhaps at the next level. What's really taken his game to another level are the improvements made to his skating and his play without the puck. He's catching defenders flat footed with quick changes of pace and he's having success driving the net with speed. The edgework/balance still needs work, but the quickness and speed have improved a lot. Coming into the year, one of the biggest criticisms of his game was his ability to use his size/reach to be an impactful player without the puck, but that has also improved considerably. So much so that he's being used in all situations and is being trusted to close out games. There's still room for him to develop physically; it would be great to see him become harder on and off pucks given his size, but Rome wasn't built in a day. There's lots to work with here.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

What's the deal with Jack Nesbitt? 6'4" center ranked in the teens by Central Scouting and Craig Button.

Here is a write-up from Brock Otten who covers the OHL. Seems like he is on an upward trajectory. Sounds interesting to me....

8. Jack Nesbitt - Center - Windsor Spitfires
One of the OHL's most improved players this year and it has him in the early first round conversation IMO. The big, power center has a very clear understanding of how he needs to play in order to be successful and that's refreshing. He's dominating near the crease this year; a very tough tie up for opposing defenders. His hands are terrific and he's having no trouble putting away second chance opportunities or redirecting shots. He's going to be a really good powerplay presence in this league and perhaps at the next level. What's really taken his game to another level are the improvements made to his skating and his play without the puck. He's catching defenders flat footed with quick changes of pace and he's having success driving the net with speed. The edgework/balance still needs work, but the quickness and speed have improved a lot. Coming into the year, one of the biggest criticisms of his game was his ability to use his size/reach to be an impactful player without the puck, but that has also improved considerably. So much so that he's being used in all situations and is being trusted to close out games. There's still room for him to develop physically; it would be great to see him become harder on and off pucks given his size, but Rome wasn't built in a day. There's lots to work with here.

I seem to remember him being really well regarded in youth hockey, but only really know him by name. If the public punters are right, he gets taken in the back half of the 1st I assume.

 

[JadedRandom]

You're not going anywhere, especially when you just started talking about Carbonneau.

If you insist.

Carbonneau is a bit of a weird one for me in this year's draft. He has been quite inconsistent in my viewings despite being generally a very good player for the Armada this year.

Let me preface this by saying that I like a vast majority of what Carbonneau does on the ice.

Carbonneau has very good skating ability, dangles his way out of trouble on a nightly basis, is a veritable puck-hound along the boards, a physical buzzsaw type of player always getting involved in scrums and stirring things up. Carbonneau also shoots the puck well, has a pretty good release, passes the puck well, protects the puck with very good technique/strength, and he's also 6'1 and 190+ pounds so that's definitely not a small player, moreso considering how strong on his skates Carbonneau is.

And I even like his defense overall, though that tends to be somewhat inconsistent on a night-to-night basis. Some nights you're getting "A+" defense while others you're getting incosistent, maybe even a bit lackadaisical efforts defensively.

So yeah, there's very plainly a lot to like about Carbonneau's game, as I've said.

But then I look a bit more closely and I see shifts (even entire nights) where Carbonneau will play absolutely disheveled, rover-like hockey for Blainville-Boisbriand, and not in a good way. In those shifts, Carbonneau goes absolutely everywhere on the ice but the puck eludes him, and so he spends boatloads of time on the ice trying and playing HARD whilst accomplishing close to nothing concretely.

And that, to me, is a definite red flag in a prospect considering that it could entail a flaw in hockey sense, the single most-important attribute there is.

It is entirely possible that Justin Carbonneau has been masking a very "middling" (or maybe even lesser) hockey sense by using/abusing his amazing combo of skating/skill/strength against CHL competition. He certainly wouldn't be the first, and the Red Wings got burned in the past in a similar way with Zadina (sorry for re-opening wounds but it needed to be said).

Thing is, I also see Carbonneau making very "heads-up" and smart plays while on the ice, he generally tracks the puck well and reacts quickly when it is around him, so those shifts/nights where Carbonneau looks "off" could also be attributed to simple inconsistency rather than an inherent, and thus much-harder to fix, flaw on the player's part.

We'll hopefully know more about that as Blainville-Boisbriand battles for a playoff berth in the East Division of the QMJHL and Carbonneau faces tougher competition and challenges that could potentially help us statuate one way or another on this issue.

But until then I personally am a bit ambivalent about Carbonneau in that I think his ceiling is tremendous, and that his floor is similarly high given how strong he is defensively, but that his rover-style and potential hockey sense issues could majorly hamstring him at the NHL level.

On Carbonneau's good nights, with how "in-your-face" he can get with his speed/strength/skill combo going full-throttle attacking defenders on the rush, challenging them every inch of the way physically, or isolating them to cause turnovers along the boards, he is plain awesome to watch play. When Carbonneau plays in that fashion I legitimately see shades of Brad Marchand in his play.

Which is why I'd still have Carbonneau in my top-15 despite all I've written about my concerns.

I seem to remember him being really well regarded in youth hockey, but only really know him by name. If the public punters are right, he gets taken in the back half of the 1st I assume.

There's a decent chance Nesbitt does get taken in the latter part of the first, but I also think he could slip into the second-round as I find Nesbitt's offensive toolkit to be good all-around but not great.

He also has slight skating issues despite improvements (acceleration is currently below-average for the NHL at best), and is not especially good defensively so a checking-line role might also not be the best fit for his playstyle in the NHL.

Personally, I'd lean towards having Nesbitt as one of the absolute top picks of the second-round. But other people will see things differently and that's fine as well. Heck, they may well be right and I completely wrong.

And that's the beauty of it all.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

If you insist.

Carbonneau is a bit of a weird one for me in this year's draft. He has been quite inconsistent in my viewings despite being generally a very good player for the Armada this year.

Let me preface this by saying that I like a vast majority of what Carbonneau does on the ice.

Carbonneau has very good skating ability, dangles his way out of trouble on a nightly basis, is a veritable puck-hound along the boards, a physical buzzsaw type of player always getting involved in scrums and stirring things up. Carbonneau also shoots the puck well, has a pretty good release, passes the puck well, protects the puck with very good technique/strength, and he's also 6'1 and 190+ pounds so that's definitely not a small player, moreso considering how strong on his skates Carbonneau is.

And I even like his defense overall, though that tends to be somewhat inconsistent on a night-to-night basis. Some nights you're getting "A+" defense while others you're getting incosistent, maybe even a bit lackadaisical efforts defensively.

So yeah, there's very plainly a lot to like about Carbonneau's game, as I've said.

But then I look a bit more closely and I see shifts (even entire nights) where Carbonneau will play absolutely disheveled, rover-like hockey for Blainville-Boisbriand, and not in a good way. In those shifts, Carbonneau goes absolutely everywhere on the ice but the puck eludes him, and so he spends boatloads of time on the ice trying and playing HARD whilst accomplishing close to nothing concretely.

And that, to me, is a definite red flag in a prospect considering that it could entail a flaw in hockey sense, the single most-important attribute there is.

It is entirely possible that Justin Carbonneau has been masking a very "middling" (or maybe even lesser) hockey sense by using/abusing his amazing combo of skating/skill/strength against CHL competition. He certainly wouldn't be the first, and the Red Wings got burned in the past in a similar way with Zadina (sorry for re-opening wounds but it needed to be said).

Thing is, I also see Carbonneau making very "heads-up" and smart plays while on the ice, he generally tracks the puck well and reacts quickly when it is around him, so those shifts/nights where Carbonneau looks "off" could also be attributed to simple inconsistency rather than an inherent, and thus much-harder to fix, flaw on the player's part.

We'll hopefully know more about that as Blainville-Boisbriand battles for a playoff berth in the East Division of the QMJHL and Carbonneau faces tougher competition and challenges that could potentially help us statuate one way or another on this issue.

But until then I personally am a bit ambivalent about Carbonneau in that I think his ceiling is tremendous, and that his floor is similarly high given how strong he is defensively, but that his rover-style and potential hockey sense issues could majorly hamstring him at the NHL level.

On Carbonneau's good nights, with how "in-your-face" he can get with his speed/strength/skill combo going full-throttle attacking defenders on the rush, challenging them every inch of the way physically, or isolating them to cause turnovers along the boards, he is plain awesome to watch play. When Carbonneau plays in that fashion I legitimately see shades of Brad Marchand in his play.

Which is why I'd still have Carbonneau in my top-15 despite all I've written about my concerns.



There's a decent chance Nesbitt does get taken in the latter part of the first, but I also think he could slip into the second-round as I find Nesbitt's offensive toolkit to be good all-around but not great.

He also has slight skating issues despite improvements (acceleration is currently below-average for the NHL at best), and is not especially good defensively so a checking-line role might also not be the best fit for his playstyle in the NHL.

Personally, I'd lean towards having Nesbitt as one of the absolute top picks of the second-round. But other people will see things differently and that's fine as well. Heck, they may well be right and I completely wrong.

And that's the beauty of it all.

I agree that Carbonneau does not play a super mature game (from my limited viewings). What I struggle with, however, is just how bad the first round options look after the top 5 or 6. I think he is a very reasonable risk to take in the 10-15 range because the other options just aren't that compelling.

 

[JadedRandom]

I agree that Carbonneau does not play a super mature game (from my limited viewings). What I struggle with, however, is just how bad the first round options look after the top 5 or 6. I think he is a very reasonable risk to take in the 10-15 range because the other options just aren't that compelling.

Jackson Smith is an amazing option at 7 this year for me. I like him more than I did Zeev Buium last year, which I had at the 5th spot at the Draft behind Celebrini, Demidov, Dickinson, and Levshunov in that order.

After the top-4, and the 5-7 spots with Desnoyers, Frondell, Smith, 8th for me is where there's a tier drop.

But Eklund is still a great prospect, Spence and Lakovic too.

After that there are still a lot of very good prospects but I would agree that 2024 looked a bit stronger overall.

But this is no slight on 2025; I just think 2024 will end up being a "slightly above-average" draft overall when all is said and done whereas I would say that 2025 will be closer to "average" as far as these things go if that makes sense.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Jackson Smith is an amazing option at 7 this year for me. I like him more than I did Zeev Buium last year, which I had at the 5th spot at the Draft behind Celebrini, Demidov, Dickinson, and Levshunov in that order.

After the top-4, and the 5-7 spots with Desnoyers, Frondell, Smith, 8th for me is where there's a tier drop.

But Eklund is still a great prospect, Spence and Lakovic too.

After that there are still a lot of very good prospects but I would agree that 2024 looked a bit stronger overall.

But this is no slight on 2025; I just think 2024 will end up being a "slightly above-average" draft overall when all is said and done whereas I would say that 2025 will be closer to "average" as far as these things go if that makes sense.

Rightly or wrongly, most Wings fans are expecting to be drafting outside of the top 10. For the record I too am a Smith supporter and expect him to be gone when we pick.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

Just starting to look at prospects that I don't know much about and watched the OHL all-star game last night. Not a lot to be learned from that kind of game but it was good to get a first look at some lesser-known guys. C Ethan Czata caught my eye and subsequent reading up about him would make him seem a good second-round target. Luca Romano also looked good, Nesbitt not so much but the all-star format may not be the best showcase for him. Same holds for Brady Martin who is starting to get some attention as a mid first-rounder.

 

[newfy]

Cater bear and Brady Martin strike me as wings style picks

 

[Realgud]

Thanks Realgud for all your work. I promise to waste hour after hour on it. One thing is I couldn’t find Arvid Drott anywhere.

My pleasure! It's a nice way for me to use my professional skills to give back to this forum/community that I've grown fond of over the years. It's a small gesture on my part and I know it makes a few people like you happy and that's enough to keep me going and bring updates to the website every year.

If you're on PC, don't forget to use CTRL+F if you can't find a specific player:

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

Cater bear and Brady Martin strike me as wings style picks

A comment about Martin during the broadcast was that he was often mentioned by other players as one of the hardest guys in the league to play against. So yeah, that would fit with what the Wings have been doing.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Just feels like inevitable destiny towards Frondell. Juuuuuust injured enough to let his stock drop into the teens, where we will grab him.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Cater bear and Brady Martin strike me as wings style picks

He plays just down the street from me. What I've seen of the kid makes me think he'll be a phenomenal 2nd line winger or a very good 1st line winger. Something like a Seth Jarvis or Brandon Hagel. If the Wings are able to make that pick I run to the podium for it. He's someone that should be talked about from 5 to 8 in my opinion.