I ask Google's Gemini to use the same stats as the professional, and this is what he/she/they/them/WTF said.
As an AI, I don't "watch" hockey games or attend scouting combines like human scouts do. My "data" comes from processing and synthesizing vast amounts of publicly available information, including:
- Statistical Data: Points, goals, assists, penalty minutes, plus/minus, shots on goal, time on ice, special teams production (PPG, PPP, SHG, SHP), and advanced stats like Corsi, Fenwick, and Expected Goals (when available for junior leagues). I look at production relative to league, age, and production trends over time.
- Scouting Reports: I analyze qualitative descriptions from various reputable scouting services (Elite Prospects, NHL Central Scouting, FCHockey, The Hockey News, Dobber Prospects, McKeen's Hockey, etc.). This includes assessments of skating (speed, agility, edge work), shot (accuracy, power, release), puck skills (dangling, passing, control), hockey IQ (playmaking, defensive reads, off-puck movement), compete level, physicality, and overall athletic profile.
- Player Comparables: I note the NHL player comparisons made by scouts, as these offer insight into a player's perceived ceiling and style.
- Contextual Factors:
- League Quality: Production in a strong league (e.g., NCAA, Liiga, SHL, top CHL leagues) is weighted more heavily.
- Team Role: Was a player a top-line center or a bottom-six grinder? This impacts their opportunities for production.
- Age and Development Curve: Younger players for their draft class with high production often have higher upside.
- Injuries: Significant injuries can impact draft stock, but a player's long-term potential might remain high.
- "Russian Factor": While lessening, the uncertainty of players under contract in Russia (KHL) can sometimes lead to them sliding in the draft.
- World Junior Championship (WJC) and U18 World Championship Performance: These tournaments offer a chance to see top prospects compete against their peers on an international stage.
My Approach to Generating a Ranking:
Instead of simply copying one specific ranking, I create a "consensus" by:
- Identifying Top Tiers: There's usually a strong agreement on the top players. I'll solidify those first.
- Looking for Commonalities: I cross-reference multiple reputable sources. A player consistently appearing in the top 15 across several lists indicates a strong consensus.
- Evaluating Discrepancies: If one scout has a player significantly higher or lower than others, I'll look for the reasoning (e.g., did they see something unique, or are they emphasizing a particular attribute?).
- Prioritizing Key Attributes: For an NHL player, I generally prioritize:
- Hockey IQ: The ability to read the game, make smart decisions, and adapt. This is often seen as the most difficult trait to teach.
- Skating: Modern NHL is all about speed and mobility.
- Offensive Skill: Shooting, passing, puck handling that can generate offense at the highest level.
- Compete Level: Work ethic, battle, and desire to win.
- Size/Strength (contextual): While not paramount for all players, it's a significant advantage for centers and defensemen.
- Positional Value: Centers and defensemen are generally more valuable than wingers, particularly if they are right-shot defensemen.
My Own Top 64 Ranking for the 2024 NHL Draft (Synthesized Analysis)
Considering the current draft landscape, this ranking reflects a balance of NHL readiness, high-end potential, statistical performance, and valuable hockey attributes.
Tier 1: Elite Franchise Talent
- Macklin Celebrini (C, Boston University, NCAA): Unanimous #1. Exceptional two-way game, high-end skill, incredible compete. Ready for the NHL. His Hobey Baker as a freshman is a huge indicator of immediate impact and sustained excellence.
Tier 2: Potential Star / High-End Top Line/Pair
- Ivan Demidov (RW, SKA St. Petersburg, MHL): Pure offensive creativity and stickhandling wizardry. While the "Russian factor" exists, his offensive ceiling is among the highest.
- Artyom Levshunov (RHD, Michigan State, NCAA): Mobile, big, and effective two-way RHD. Excellent offensive instincts from the blueline. His NCAA performance demonstrates translatability.
- Zeev Buium (LHD, Denver, NCAA): Elite skater and puck-moving defenseman who quarterbacked Denver's offense. His WJC performance solidified his stock. High hockey IQ.
- Cayden Lindstrom (C, Medicine Hat, WHL): A true power forward with size, speed, and skill. His injury was a concern, but when healthy, he drives play and creates offense physically.
- Sam Dickinson (LHD, London, OHL): A complete, well-rounded defenseman. Excellent skater, strong defensively, and growing offensive game. High floor, significant upside.
- Berkly Catton (C, Spokane, WHL): Highly intelligent, shifty center with elite offensive production. Despite being slightly undersized, his brain and skills make him dangerous.
Tier 3: Impact NHL Players (Top-Six Forward / Top-Four Defenseman)
- Zayne Parekh (RHD, Saginaw, OHL): One of the most dynamic offensive defensemen in the draft. Fantastic puck skills, shot, and vision for power play. Defensive refinement is the main question mark.
- Konsta Helenius (C, Jukurit, Liiga): A Highly versatile and intelligent two-way forward who can play center or wing. Plays a mature, pro-style game.
- Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (RW, Mora IK, HockeyAllsvenskan): Strong, competitive winger with a heavy shot and a willingness to drive to the net. His performance in pro leagues is a good sign.
- Anton Silayev (LHD, Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod, KHL): Imposing size (6'7") with impressive mobility for his frame. Projects as a dominant shutdown defenseman, though his offensive upside is limited.
- Tij Iginla (C/W, Kelowna, WHL): Showing incredible offensive growth. Good shot, competitive, and plays with intensity. Projects as a middle-six forward with top-six potential.
- Liam Greentree (RW, Windsor, OHL): Big, strong winger with good puck protection and playmaking ability. Uses his size effectively.
- Cole Eiserman (LW, USNTDP, NCAA Commit): Best pure goal scorer in the draft. Elite shot and release. Needs to round out his overall game, but his scoring touch is undeniable.
- Carter Yakemchuk (RHD, Calgary, WHL): A big, offensive defenseman with a booming shot. Skating is good, but needs to improve defensive consistency. High offensive ceiling.
- Beckett Sennecke (RW, Oshawa, OHL): Late-season riser with good size and high-end puck skills. Creative and effective in the offensive zone.
Tier 4: Solid NHL Prospects (Middle-Six / Bottom-Pairing with upside)
- Jett Luchanko (C, Guelph, OHL): High-motor, intelligent two-way center with good speed and compete. Reliable and coachable.
- Michael Hage (C, Chicago Steel, USHL): Skilled center with good vision and offensive instincts. Injury impacted his season, but he showed high potential.
- Nikita Artamonov (RW, Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod, KHL): Gritty, two-way forward with good compete and offensive flashes. Plays a pro-style game.
- Trevor Connelly (LW, Tri-City, USHL): Dynamic and highly skilled winger with a lot of offensive flash. Off-ice concerns have impacted his draft stock, but the talent is undeniable.
- Stian Solberg (LHD, Vålerenga, Norway/SHL): Physical, hard-nosed shutdown defenseman who impressed at the men's World Championships. High floor as a defensive defenseman.
- Adam Jiříček (RHD, HC Plzeň, Czechia): Mobile, right-shot defenseman with good defensive reads. Injuries limited his season, but his toolkit is appealing.
- Sacha Boisvert (C, Muskegon, USHL): Big center with a good shot and a developing two-way game. Good athletic profile.
- Ryder Ritchie (RW, Prince Albert, WHL): Versatile winger with good offensive instincts and a solid all-around game.
- Emil Hemming (RW, TPS, Liiga): Power winger with a good shot and willingness to engage physically.
- Cole Beaudoin (C, Barrie, OHL): Highly competitive, intense two-way center who excels in puck battles and defense.
- Dean Letourneau (C, St. Andrew's College, PHC): Raw but highly intriguing prospect with elite size and athletic tools. Long-term project with immense upside.
- Charlie Elick (RHD, Brandon, WHL): Pure shutdown right-shot defenseman. Physical, reliable, and strong in his own end.
- EJ Emery (RHD, USNTDP): Another strong defensive RHD with great size and mobility. Limited offensive upside, but projects as a quality defender.
- Matvei Gridin (RW, Muskegon, USHL): Offensive winger with good hands and scoring ability.
- Alfons Freij (LHD, Växjö Lakers J20, Sweden): Offensive defenseman with excellent skating and puck skills, good offensive instincts.
- Ben Danford (RHD, Oshawa, OHL): Smart, reliable defensive defenseman with good reads and mobility.
Tier 5: Developmental Prospects (Potential NHLers, Higher Variance)
- Aron Kiviharju (LHD, HIFK, Liiga): Once considered a top-5 pick, injuries and a less dominant season have seen him drop. Still possesses elite offensive vision and puck skills. A high-reward swing.
- Andrew Basha (LW, Medicine Hat, WHL): Skilled playmaker with good offensive instincts and a high motor.
- Tanner Howe (LW, Regina, WHL): Productive junior scorer with good offensive instincts.
- Leo Sahlin Wallenius (LHD, Växjö Lakers J20, Sweden): Mobile, two-way defenseman with good skating and puck movement.
- Miguel Marques (RW, Lethbridge, WHL): Creative and shifty winger with good offensive tools, can drive play.
- Henry Mews (RHD, Ottawa, OHL): Offensive defenseman with good puck skills and vision, but defensive consistency is a question.
- Yegor Surin (C, Loko Yaroslavl, MHL): Gritty, two-way center with good compete and a pro-style game.
- Dominik Badinka (RHD, Malmö J20, Sweden): Mobile, two-way defenseman from Czechia, solid defensive reads.
- Sam O'Reilly (C/W, London, OHL): Versatile forward with good hockey sense and a strong work ethic, part of a strong London team.
- Terik Parascak (RW, Prince George, WHL): Highly productive winger with excellent offensive instincts and IQ, but questions about his skating.
- Luke Misa (C, Mississauga, OHL): Fast, skilled center with good offensive tools, undersized.
- Maxim Masse (RW, Chicoutimi, QMJHL): Big, skilled winger with a good shot.
- Jesse Pulkkinen (LHD, JYP, Liiga) is an overager who impressed with his size and mobility against men. He is an intriguing project.
- Will Skahan (LHD, USNTDP): Big, physical defensive defenseman with solid mobility.
- Kamil Bednarik (C, USNTDP): Two-way center with good defensive instincts and playmaking.
- Adam Jecho (C/RW, Edmonton, WHL): Big forward with skill, though consistency can be an issue.
- Veeti Väisänen (LHD, KooKoo, Liiga): Smooth-skating Finnish defenseman.
- Leon Muggli (LHD, EV Zug, NL): Mobile, smart defenseman from Switzerland.
- Ben Riche (RW, Medicine Hat, WHL): Skilled forward with good hands and offensive upside.
- Daniil Ustinkov (LHD, ZSC Lions, NL): Large, physical defenseman from Switzerland with a developing offensive game.
- Teddy Stiga (LW, USNTDP): Energetic and skilled winger, good on the forecheck.
- Jack Nesbitt (C, Windsor, OHL): Big center with good tools, needs to refine his game to harness his size.
- Lucas Van Vliet (LW, USNTDP): Power winger with a good shot, strong on the cycle.
- Julius Miettinen (C/W, Everett, WHL): Strong two-way center with good defensive awareness.
- Noel Nordh (LW, Brynäs J20, Sweden): Power winger with a good shot.
- Ryerson Leenders (G, Mississauga, OHL): Top goalie prospect, athletic and competitive. Goalie rankings are highly subjective.
- Jack McKenna (RW, USNTDP): Highly skilled forward with offensive upside.
- Melvin Fernstrom (LW, Örebro J20, Sweden): Goal-scoring winger from Sweden, needs to improve his consistency.
- David Svozil (LHD, Rimouski, QMJHL): Smaller, offensive defenseman with good skating and puck movement.
- Maxmilian Curran (C, Tri-City, WHL): Big center from the WHL, good two-way potential.
- Ilya Nabokov (G, Metallurg Magnitogorsk, KHL): Older, highly touted Russian goalie who has excelled in the KHL.
- Tomas Galvas (LHD, Bílí Tygři Liberec, Czechia): Smaller, offensive defenseman with good skating and vision.
This ranking prioritizes a blend of projectable NHL skills, statistical performance relative to competition, and overall potential. The beauty of the draft is that development curves are unique, and many players will exceed or fall short of these initial expectations.