All players have good games/events and bad ones, but Frondell's have been more pronounced than usual.
www.nytimes.com
Corey Pronman
May 22, 2025
Evaluating Anton Frondell ahead of the 2025 NHL Draft is anything but straightforward. Depending on who you ask in the NHL, he’s either a future franchise center or a solid middle-six contributor. Scouts are split, with some seeing him worthy of a top-three selection, while others view him somewhere between six and 10
The variance in opinion stems from Frondell’s Jekyll-and-Hyde spectrum of performances over the past two years. All players have good games/events and bad ones, but Frondell’s have been more pronounced than usual.
On his best nights, Frondell looks like a player who can tilt the ice in his favor. His season in the Allsvenskan with Djurgården was a major selling point: 25 points in 29 games against men, production comparable to what William Nylander and David Pastrnak posted at similar stages and slightly behind Elias Pettersson’s Allsvenskan numbers in his draft season. That’s elite company and a big reason why some scouts are bullish on him.
As a 16-year-old, his numbers in Sweden’s top junior level were among the best in recent memory. On the international stage, he showed he could rise to the occasion, most notably at the U18 Five Nations tournament in February 2024, where he scored two clutch late goals to upset the United States on their home ice. Moments like that reinforce the belief that Frondell has the potential to be a true difference-maker.
However, inconsistencies have clouded his evaluation. Despite strong performances in some tournaments, Frondell had forgettable showings in others, even against relatively modest competition. For instance, during the U18 Five Nations tournaments in both November and February, he was a mixed bag, producing some strong games but also disappearing at times. His production against U18 players was actually worse in his draft season than in his draft-minus-one season. At the 2024 World Junior A Challenge, he was solid but unspectacular as a 17-year-old, tallying just four points in five games against a fairly average talent pool. He also didn’t even touch a point/game against in Sweden’s top junior league in 10 games played this season.
During the spring playoffs with Djurgården, fellow draft-eligible Victor Eklund earned regular minutes, but Frondell’s ice time shrank. After Djurgården secured promotion to the SHL, Frondell joined Sweden’s roster at the U18 World Championship. Expectations were high, but he registered only three points in five games and didn’t make a major impact, even though he faced strong opposition, arriving just in time for the medal round. Compared to draft-eligible peers like James Hagens and Porter Martone (who are late 2006s like Eklund while Frondell is a 2007), who dominated the previous year’s tournament, Frondell’s modest output stood out for the wrong reasons.
The Frondell debate ultimately boils down to two interpretations of his skill set:
Case for optimism: Frondell has NHL-caliber tools. He’s a strong skater, a highly skilled puck handler and a player who competes hard and doesn’t shy away from physicality. His shot is high-end, with a release and velocity that can beat NHL goalies from distance. He also has the playmaking ability to facilitate offense. Scouts who are high on Frondell view his production in the Allsvenskan as a sign that he can handle difficult competition and believe that with time, he will iron out the inconsistencies.
There’s also the matter of Frondell’s season arc. He started slowly, partly due to injury, but found his stride in the second half against men. The Frondell bulls see a player similar to Anze Kopitar or Aleksander Barkov — a big, responsible, two-way center who can anchor a top line and a guy you win with in the playoffs. They also caution about overreacting to his U18 World Championships, as players who were great against men but had a bad tournament, such as Pastrnak and Martin Necas, tend to slide in their draft years after a poor ending to their season.
Case for caution: On the flip side, skeptics point to the uneven performances, particularly internationally, and concerns about his hockey sense. In games where Frondell isn’t at his best, he can fade into the background. On his off nights, he doesn’t look like a true play driver and can be someone who leans on his linemates to get him the puck in scoring positions. This leads some to project him more as a very good second-line center who brings size, compete and scoring punch but doesn’t consistently tilt the ice like a franchise player. Names like Bo Horvat and Anton Lundell are thrown around for this side of the coin — who are still excellent players, mind you.
Colleague Max Bultman noted Frondell’s inconsistencies are similar to those of Elias Pettersson in his draft season. Pettersson ended up becoming a great player but those issues have lingered in his NHL career.
Frondell’s evaluation ultimately comes down to the interpretation of the data. You can view the exact same information as someone else, and tilt your head in a slightly different direction to look at it and come to a different conclusion.
If you believe his flashes of high-end production and mature, translatable game against men are signs of a potential hard-to-play-against No. 1 NHL center, he’s worth a top-three pick and potentially the No. 2 pick after Erie’s Matthew Schaefer.
If you’re more concerned about his streakiness and lack of dynamic, game-breaking traits, he fits more comfortably as a top-six center — valuable, but not necessarily someone to form your rebuild around.
Personally, I lean toward the latter camp. Frondell has the potential to be a very good second-line center on a contending team. He’s skilled, strong and competes hard, but over two years of viewings, the high-end offensive displays haven’t been consistent enough to put him in the same category as someone like Michael Misa, who is a better athlete and much more consistent producer. That said, Frondell is still an excellent prospect and a true premium young center talent.
Frondell embodies the complexity of projecting 17-year-olds into the NHL. There are a lot of variables that go into the mix between the physical maturity, the offensive tools, the character and the body of work can comprise over 100 games at varying levels of competition with different levels of stakes. I won’t blink if Frondell is the second player picked, and similarly I won’t if he goes seventh. His resume has the highest degree of uncertainty this year among the top prospects in the 2025 NHL Draft.
