I have a curiosity question … how much do scouts, NHL teams, prospect ranking companies look into a player’s family lineage to try and project potential?
Do rankings even consider future potential or are they based completely upon 'current ability' going into the draft?
Would/is family lineage be used to ‘try’ to predict the future development of the players? Do teams look at genetic traits, such as physical development, genetic preference tendencies, disposition, and temperament of other males in a prospect’s lineage? Do teams go to that extent? With the Bruins picking 7th in this draft there may be two, three or four prospects that all appear somewhat equally good choice based on immediate ability and development.
I ask because, let’s say there are two draft prospects, Prospect A and Prospect B, equal skills and talents in everyway to this point in their on ice play and development. Skill wise and hockey IQ both appear to be equal. Both play the same position, same strengths and weaknesses in their games, both just turned 18, weigh in around 175 -180lbs, and both are just under 6 feet tall.
Prospect A - his current family he is the oldest with three younger sisters. His father works as an accountant stands 5’11” and weighs 195lbs. The father’s brother works as an office manager stands 5’ 10” weighs approximately 190lbs. Looking back through his family tree no male in his family was taller than 6’1’’ nor weighed more than 200lbs and they all historically gravitated towards non-physical careers.
Prospect B – his current family he is the youngest of six with three older brothers. His brothers were all roughly the same height and weight as him when they where just turning 18. Now, his older brothers are all in their 20’s, all working on the family ranch and each of them stand about 6’4” – 6’5” weighing in between 215 - 225lbs. His father stands 6’5” weights 235lbs and has always worked on the ranch just like his father and his father’s father. It’s been bred into them for generations. All males in his family tree are over 6’3” and usually weigh over 210lbs and all gravitated towards hard physical labor jobs.
Remember, both prospect’s are currently equal and equally ranked based upon current attributes and skill. But what will they be like in 5 – 10 years. If you were selecting which of these two would you select knowing their genetic lineage histories?
So, with this in mind, how would such information possible change whom the Bruins select should their choices all be somewhat equal, or does it not matter? There are no guarantees and there is always risk when drafting 18 year olds. And there are always anomalies in families, outliers.
With all that said, do teams look at family lineage when ranking players? Or is it all just based upon immediate skill?