2025 26 Roster…too Soon

[Hawkaholic]

I think the playoff concerns are overblown. This team is at least 3 seasons away from the playoffs, maybe more. You're talking year 4 of a Marner deal at that point.

Or we can waste a third straight year of Bedard playing with losers like Kurashev, Donato, and washed vets like Foligno.

Ahh yes, Lets get Marner @ 14mil for 7 years just so Bedard can have an easier time on the ice the next 3 years and not care about building winning team at all.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

Ahh yes, Lets get Marner @ 14mil for 7 years just so Bedard can have an easier time on the ice the next 3 years and not care about building winning team at all.

I mean if you ruin Bedard's development by him playing with no depth and with 3rd and 4th liners for 4 years to start his career then you're not going to have to worry about the playoffs regardless.

He can't create enough on his own and needs the help. Worry about the playoffs when they're actually a thing to worry about. This team is so far away that making decisions now based on the playoffs that might make in 3, 4, or 5 years down the road is just silly.

 

[Crow]

If we are still 3 more seasons away from even coming close to the playoffs, there is no reason to sign Marner this year. May as well wait another season, get another relatively higher draft slot next year, try to sign someone else. If I thought more of Marner I could be convinced otherwise.

 

[statswatcher]

I mean if you ruin Bedard's development by him playing with no depth and with 3rd and 4th liners for 4 years to start his career then you're not going to have to worry about the playoffs regardless.

He can't create enough on his own and needs the help. Worry about the playoffs when they're actually a thing to worry about. This team is so far away that making decisions now based on the playoffs that might make in 3, 4, or 5 years down the road is just silly.

if bedard needs to have a league top five salary on his line to not be permanently ruined forever, then he's not the kind of player you build a team around anyway.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

if bedard needs to have a league top five salary on his line to not be permanently ruined forever, then he's not the kind of player you build a team around anyway.

Well until Bedard shows he can create more for himself, his line mates are going to be incredibly important for his development.

What's the plan otherwise? Another year with a revolving door of linemates with TT, Bertuzzi, and 3rd liners like Mikeyhev and Donato? That's going to hold his development and playmaking abilities back.

 

[Crow]

I’m thinking you can just pair Nazar with Bedard next year along with a bigger guy with possession skills and probably have decent results for both developmentally for next year.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I mean if you ruin Bedard's development by him playing with no depth and with 3rd and 4th liners for 4 years to start his career then you're not going to have to worry about the playoffs regardless.

He can't create enough on his own and needs the help. Worry about the playoffs when they're actually a thing to worry about. This team is so far away that making decisions now based on the playoffs that might make in 3, 4, or 5 years down the road is just silly.

Right, because the team is only Bedard, one player.

If this team is so far away from the playoffs, which it is, signing a UFA to a 14mil contract should be the last thing on the list.

 

[statswatcher]

Well until Bedard shows he can create more for himself, his line mates are going to be incredibly important for his development.

What's the plan otherwise? Another year with a revolving door of linemates with TT, Bertuzzi, and 3rd liners like Mikeyhev and Donato? That's going to hold his development and playmaking abilities back.

even if i agree with you that's a problem, signing mitch marner isn't the only possible solution.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

Right, because the team is only Bedard, one player.

If this team is so far away from the playoffs, which it is, signing a UFA to a 14mil contract should be the last thing on the list.

What's your plan then? Make no moves and play him with 3rd and 4th line caliber players for a 3rd straight year to start his career? Coming off a year where his point production regressed no less.

even if i agree with you that's a problem, signing mitch marner isn't the only possible solution.

What moves are you trying to make instead then?

 

[Hawkaholic]

What's your plan then? Make no moves and play him with 3rd and 4th line caliber players for a 3rd straight year to start his career? Coming off a year where his point production regressed no less.

Keep stock piling high end talent through the draft (top 5 picks), make a savvy trade from a strength (draft picks/prospects) for some talent up front and continue to watch the kids grow. No other way to do it. Name a successful team that built the core of their team through signing free agents to massive contracts on July 1st.

 

[x Tame Impala]

if you go strictly by era adjusted points, the hossa marner comparison isn't far off. for the playoffs from 99-04, and 06-09, teams averaged 2.45 goals per game, while hossa averaged 0.61 points per game. from 17-24 teams averaged 2.86 goals per game, while marner averaged 0.88 points per game. taking the ratios of average individual points per game over average team goals per game we come out to 0.24 for hossa and 0.30 for marner. leaving aside the caveat that marner also averaged about 2 more minutes a games than hossa did, those numbers are still pretty close with a margin of error in favor of marner.

there are two catches:
a) if the idea is to pay marner 14m, that would be the 2009 cap% equivalent of 8.32m, 3m more than the contract hossa signed. such a contract would have made him the 5th highest paid player in the league at the time behind only kiprusoff, crosby, ovechkin, and heatley. i don't think anyone is realistically offering that july of 2009. the hawks would've had to forgo signing kopecky and madden that offseason and they still wouldn't be cap compliant by a few hundred thousand.
b) the 2024-25 blackhawks are not one fifth the team that the 2008-09 blackhawks were. marner by himself doesn't make this team a winner. at best he inflates a few young guys regular season totals and therefore their salary demands.

You can't extrapolate out rates like that because there's too much context missing. Which should be obvious from the beginning if you're trying to argue Marner is in the same ballpark of effectiveness as Hossa

You can look across eras and see higher/lower scoring rates or goaltending or powerplay opportunities together but IMO it's not accurate to draw conclusions based on these simple conversions.

 

[ChicagoHockeyFan]

We should not be 3 seasons away from even competing for a playoff spot, slight improvement this next year and 26-27 we have to be right there for a wild card spot. By that time if we are not Davidson will and should be unemployed

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Marner might go infect the Sharks instead. His hero, notorious playoff loser Patrick Marleau is there, and it’ll remind him of the Leafs. All offense zero defense.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

Keep stock piling high end talent through the draft (top 5 picks), make a savvy trade from a strength (draft picks/prospects) for some talent up front and continue to watch the kids grow. No other way to do it. Name a successful team that built the core of their team through signing free agents to massive contracts on July 1st.

If they had better forward prospects on the way I would be more open to this, but they simply don't. They might not have a top line forward level forward join this team until year 5 of Bedard and then as a rookie at that.

 

[statswatcher]

What moves are you trying to make instead then?

throw the kids into the water again and make them sink or swim. i don't want to see more turbo/bertuzzi style signings, i don't like marner as an option for a marquee ufa acquisition, so i say let it simmer another year.

You can't extrapolate out rates like that because there's too much context missing.

nobody extrapolated any rates whatsoever. them's just the rates. plain and simple.

Which should be obvious from the beginning if you're trying to argue Marner is in the same ballpark of effectiveness as Hossa

no one said anything about "effectiveness" either. first sentence of the post makes clear i was only looking at a comparison of their playoff point production. i believe hossa was a more "effective" player than marner (whatever that really means).

You can look across eras and see higher/lower scoring rates or goaltending or powerplay opportunities together but IMO it's not accurate to draw conclusions based on these simple conversions.

i can absolutley draw the conclusion that for every goal a team scored on average in the playoffs for that specific period of time, marian hossa scored 0.24 points. it is incontrovertible unless i or someone else made a mistake (which i frequently do, please check after me!). the same is true for mitch marner's 0.3. there are a great many factors that can account for these numbers, and so i would go as far to agree that no one conclusion can be imposed out of hand from them with no further support, but i don't see the point in denying that there might be anything to be gleaned from them at all.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

throw the kids into the water again and make them sink or swim. i don't want to see more turbo/bertuzzi style signings, i don't like marner as an option for a marquee ufa acquisition, so i say let it simmer another year.

I think this debate is all the more reason why even a slight overpay for Isaak Howard would be fine. The forward prospects just aren't there. Then throw in less than ideal situation of who is likely to be there at pick 3, just not great.

 

[ChicagoHockeyFan]

Peterka, Cullye, and Knies all better fits and less risk in my opinion than Marner. Can all play with Bedard

 

[statswatcher]

I think this debate is all the more reason why even a slight overpay for Isaak Howard would be fine. The forward prospects just aren't there. Then throw in less than ideal situation of who is likely to be there at pick 3, just not great.

i would be fine with moving a small fortune to get better younger guys in. no issue with that whatsoever.

 

[giza]

Bedard and Kurashev for Tuch, Peterka, Lafferty and the 9th overall.....so let it be written, so let it be done!

 

[Hawkaholic]

If they had better forward prospects on the way I would be more open to this, but they simply don't. They might not have a top line forward level forward join this team until year 5 of Bedard and then as a rookie at that.

You are too focused on Bedard. This is a long process, you can't speed up a rebuild with any success. You can bring in younger and cheaper forwards who have upside through free agency, or trades. You dont need to sign the biggest fish to make this team better, its simply not a good way to do a rebuild.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

i would be fine with moving a small fortune to get better younger guys in. no issue with that whatsoever.

Dreaming now but if you could somehow get Howard for the Toronto pick and them package Korchinski + the Florida 1st for a young forward... Well, that would be my dream scenario off season.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Peterka, Cullye, and Knies all better fits and less risk in my opinion than Marner. Can all play with Bedard

Toronto is going to keep Knies at all cost, if they blow it up its not him going out the door, its the core that has failed to get it done year after year

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I think this debate is all the more reason why even a slight overpay for Isaak Howard would be fine. The forward prospects just aren't there. Then throw in less than ideal situation of who is likely to be there at pick 3, just not great.

there is nothing wrong with this, its a sign to give it more time, a proper rebuild takes a long time in the NHL, the goal is to exit with a cup ceiling, not a middling good but not great ceiling, and there are a bunch of teams in that range every year who will inevitably waste years stuck in the middle

 

[Malaka]

I guess I just don’t see the benefit of Marner long term. I don’t think it’s a given he makes this team better in 4/5 years in the way that players like Hossa did, or he somehow impacts bedard’s development in ways that not having him and being a shitshow again which could result in top 3 talent in the likes of McKenna to fall in our laps and would otherwise push him as well. In fact the adding of him might inflate our points at the end of the season for a team that isn’t ready to compete just yet and was going to add those high end prospects anyways.

Historically again name 5 major UFA signings in the last 20 years that lived up to the contract. It’s a very, short list.

And also I don’t like his play, and stylistically influencing more juniors kind of hockey on our youth. Idk man.


Edit: it appears a lot of the sentiment was echoed here in better detail, glad I don’t have to serve as the voice of reason, bc if that was so we’d be f***ed

 

[ChicagoHockeyFan]

Toronto is going to keep Knies at all cost, if they blow it up its not him going out the door, its the core that has failed to get it done year after year

Agreed they’ll do everything to keep him, but if I was the hawks I would also be doing everything to get him. I know it’s not likely but he is the most perfect fit right now for what we need