2025 26 Roster…too Soon

[statswatcher]

if you go strictly by era adjusted points, the hossa marner comparison isn't far off. for the playoffs from 99-04, and 06-09, teams averaged 2.45 goals per game, while hossa averaged 0.61 points per game. from 17-24 teams averaged 2.86 goals per game, while marner averaged 0.88 points per game. taking the ratios of average individual points per game over average team goals per game we come out to 0.24 for hossa and 0.30 for marner. leaving aside the caveat that marner also averaged about 2 more minutes a games than hossa did, those numbers are still pretty close with a margin of error in favor of marner.

there are two catches:
a) if the idea is to pay marner 14m, that would be the 2009 cap% equivalent of 8.32m, 3m more than the contract hossa signed. such a contract would have made him the 5th highest paid player in the league at the time behind only kiprusoff, crosby, ovechkin, and heatley. i don't think anyone is realistically offering that july of 2009. the hawks would've had to forgo signing kopecky and madden that offseason and they still wouldn't be cap compliant by a few hundred thousand.
b) the 2024-25 blackhawks are not one fifth the team that the 2008-09 blackhawks were. marner by himself doesn't make this team a winner. at best he inflates a few young guys regular season totals and therefore their salary demands.

 

[Northernhawk]

You dont bring in Tyler Bertuzzi when preaching about building any culture

But here we are with Bertuzzi for 4 more years to be MIA majority of nights

With Bertuzzi and also Teravainen…my thoughts are they find a niche line, produce, then when they have one bad game the coach would change thr lines…Donato as well…Donato had 31g31a62pts but is also very streaky…
Dickinson being injured for a large part of the season gave others a chance in different situations…I really like Mikheyev, Dickinson, Bertuzzi and Teravainen…I think Donato is still 50/50 to resign…but I live Donato too…
Playoff teams that lost missed out on acquiring any of the before mentioned players…the problem is the Hawks aren’t a playoff team…

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Donato is this years Kurashev. Not a good hockey player. Do not pay him.

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

Marner timestamp

 

[ChicagoHockeyFan]

Bertuzzi will show more value if he is playing in meaningful games IMO, when he cares and is playing hard he can be really good

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Bertuzzi will show more value if he is playing in meaningful games IMO, when he cares and is playing hard he can be really good

Hell of a "Culture" setter in locker-room

Great message for kids

 

[statswatcher]

Hell of a "Culture" setter in locker-room

Great message for kids

you want someone who performs objectively even worse when things actually matter, so unless your point is to just say "bettuzzi bad" with no further elabortation, you are only attacking your own argument.

 

[statswatcher]

Donato is this years Kurashev. Not a good hockey player. Do not pay him.

see, the problem with donato last season was that frustration with a fourth liner on bedard's wing, but this season the problem is he played *too well* with bedard. guy can't win for losing.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

you want someone who performs objectively even worse when things actually matter, so unless your point is to just say "bettuzzi bad" with no further elabortation, you are only attacking your own argument.

Donato is an offense only bottom six guy. He's a 15-15 guy on a decent team.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

see, the problem with donato last season was that frustration with a fourth liner on bedard's wing, but this season the problem is he played *too well* with bedard. guy can't win for losing.

Do you think his production is something we should bet on? I said the same thing about Kurashev a year ago. Was proven right.

 

[statswatcher]

Donato is an offense only bottom six guy. He's a 15-15 guy on a decent team.

that's a good player to have on a bottom feeder team for bertuzzi or turbo money, particularly with the possibility he maintains himself as a 20 goal guy.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Hell of a "Culture" setter in locker-room

Great message for kids

You're ignoring my quotes for a reason.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

that's a good player to have on a bottom feeder team for bertuzzi or turbo money, particularly with the possibility he maintains himself as a 20 goal guy.

Bertuzzi and Turbo are better hockey players though. I'm not against Donato being back on a short term deal but I think he's going to get way too much for way too long.

 

[CanadianHawks]

Not sure why anyone is acting surprised by Marner or this is changing their minds

This is what you get with him

He’s a ghost when it matters. Always has been.

 

[statswatcher]

Do you think his production is something we should bet on? I said the same thing about Kurashev a year ago. Was proven right.

i am about 90% donato scores more than 14 points next season. do you one better and say i'm about 90% sure donato doesn't have a 74% drop off in points production next year.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

i am about 90% donato scores more than 14 points next season. do you one better and say i'm about 90% sure donato doesn't have a 74% drop off in points production next year.

15-15 is thirty points?

 

[statswatcher]

15-15 is thirty points?

yeah, which means even on your own terms the kurashev comparison is hyperbolic. kurashev went from 54 points to 14. a 74% drop. for donato to have a similar regression, he'd have to go from 62 points to 16, a total he hasn't had since his 22 game 2018-19 season.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

yeah, which means even on your own terms the kurashev comparison is hyperbolic. kurashev went from 54 points to 14. a 74% drop. for donato to have a similar regression, he'd have to go from 62 points to 16, a total he hasn't had since his 22 game 2018-19 season.

I get that statswatcher is your name but Kurashev stapled to Bedard like Donato was isn't a 14 point guy.

 

[statswatcher]

I get that statswatcher is your name but Kurashev stapled to Bedard like Donato was isn't a 14 point guy.

it's actually a pretty simple matter to check for that confounding variable by comparing kurashev's scoring rates per 60 with bedard from last year to this. it's not like kurashev didn't play with bedard at all this season. in fact, they played more than 200 5v5 minutes together, scoring 0.59 p/60. last season it was more than 750 minutes and 1.73 p/60. regressed by more than a point per 60. if kurashev had been stapled to bedard for 750 minutes again this season, assuming the same pace they would have only been good for 7 points together at 5v5. for donato to have a proportional collapse, you'd have to see his 2.42 5v5 p/60 with bedard regress by 65% to 0.84.

 

[WarriorofTime]

if you go strictly by era adjusted points, the hossa marner comparison isn't far off. for the playoffs from 99-04, and 06-09, teams averaged 2.45 goals per game, while hossa averaged 0.61 points per game. from 17-24 teams averaged 2.86 goals per game, while marner averaged 0.88 points per game. taking the ratios of average individual points per game over average team goals per game we come out to 0.24 for hossa and 0.30 for marner. leaving aside the caveat that marner also averaged about 2 more minutes a games than hossa did, those numbers are still pretty close with a margin of error in favor of marner.

there are two catches:
a) if the idea is to pay marner 14m, that would be the 2009 cap% equivalent of 8.32m, 3m more than the contract hossa signed. such a contract would have made him the 5th highest paid player in the league at the time behind only kiprusoff, crosby, ovechkin, and heatley. i don't think anyone is realistically offering that july of 2009. the hawks would've had to forgo signing kopecky and madden that offseason and they still wouldn't be cap compliant by a few hundred thousand.
b) the 2024-25 blackhawks are not one fifth the team that the 2008-09 blackhawks were. marner by himself doesn't make this team a winner. at best he inflates a few young guys regular season totals and therefore their salary demands.

Also recall you can no longer do those 12 year "cheater" contracts to drive down AAV by tacking a bunch of superfluous years at the end. Now a player can sign a max 8 year deal if re-signing and 7 year deal if changing teams. Hossa's first 7 years paid him $7.9 million and his eighth year paid him $4 million.

Once you knock out those extra years, the kind of deal Marner gets offered in UFA (by Leafs if re-signing, by anyone else if changing teams) is probably pretty similar. In Marner's favor, he's 2 years and change younger than Hossa was at the time the Hawks signed him (Hossa was January of '79 birth that was UFA in 2009 offseason, Marner is May of '97 birth that is UFA is 2025 offseason).

 

[MicronMega]

Marner hasn't done anything on a great team in the playoffs. What would make you think he would be a catalyst anytime soon on a young team? Spend the money elsewhere. $12-14M for Houdini is a bad signing

 

[kmwtrucks]

Also recall you can no longer do those 12 year "cheater" contracts to drive down AAV by tacking a bunch of superfluous years at the end. Now a player can sign a max 8 year deal if re-signing and 7 year deal if changing teams. Hossa's first 7 years paid him $7.9 million and his eighth year paid him $4 million.

Once you knock out those extra years, the kind of deal Marner gets offered in UFA (by Leafs if re-signing, by anyone else if changing teams) is probably pretty similar. In Marner's favor, he's 2 years and change younger than Hossa was at the time the Hawks signed him (Hossa was January of '79 birth that was UFA in 2009 offseason, Marner is May of '97 birth that is UFA is 2025 offseason).

the only thing you can do to drive the AAV down is defer some of the contract. Which I assume that is something Marner might be open to at 7 years and 100mil.

 

[Hawkaholic]

if you go strictly by era adjusted points, the hossa marner comparison isn't far off. for the playoffs from 99-04, and 06-09, teams averaged 2.45 goals per game, while hossa averaged 0.61 points per game. from 17-24 teams averaged 2.86 goals per game, while marner averaged 0.88 points per game. taking the ratios of average individual points per game over average team goals per game we come out to 0.24 for hossa and 0.30 for marner. leaving aside the caveat that marner also averaged about 2 more minutes a games than hossa did, those numbers are still pretty close with a margin of error in favor of marner.

Offensively, Hossa was always kind of a disappointment offensively when it came to his career with the Blackhawks in the playoffs. But, when he wasn't scoring he was an absolute beast defensively, and provided so much more than Marner could ever dream of providing. Marner doesn't have that in him, at all. If he's not scoring, he isn't shutting down the other teams top lines like Hossa did.

The only thing they compare in is their lack of scoring in the playoffs, Hossa is far superior in every other facet of the game.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

I think the playoff concerns are overblown. This team is at least 3 seasons away from the playoffs, maybe more. You're talking year 4 of a Marner deal at that point.

Or we can waste a third straight year of Bedard playing with losers like Kurashev, Donato, and washed vets like Foligno.

 

[ChicagoHockeyFan]

I think the playoff concerns are overblown. This team is at least 3 seasons away from the playoffs, maybe more. You're talking year 4 of a Marner deal at that point.

Or we can waste a third straight year of Bedard playing with losers like Kurashev, Donato, and washed vets like Foligno.

There will be other forwards available that will be better fits with bedard. Marner will be one of the most expensive players in the league to convince to come here. Agreed need to get Bedard real linemates ASAP but Marner isn’t the guy to go after