2025 26 Roster…too Soon

[kmwtrucks]

Sure they can. They can afford to be patient. They're not close to contending. Why would you sign Marner to a ridiculous contract that he won't be worth the minute he's signed it, when he's going to be on the wrong side of 30 when the Hawks are good again and that you'll have to pay to get rid in 4-5 years? Just so Bedard has someone to play with next year?

I'd much rather CHI use some draft assests/prospects to acquire a good young player from another team than invest 14/15/16M per year in a 28-year-old Marner (or Rantanen before he signed). Those moves just don't make sense relative to where the Hawks are. I get there's this perception that CHI really needs to get this rebuild accelerated but do things that make sense long-term.

the issue is what teams are doing what the hawks did 3 years ago and trade away hagel, Cat and dach? right now are there teams in full tear it down mode this off season.

 

[TheFridge]

the issue is what teams are doing what the hawks did 3 years ago and trade away hagel, Cat and dach? right now are there teams in full tear it down mode this off season.

You don't need teams to be going through a full-tear down. There are going to be teams that want to shake things up in the off-season. Sometimes you just get an offer on a player that will be hard to refuse.

 

[kmwtrucks]

You don't need teams to be going through a full-tear down. There are going to be teams that want to shake things up in the off-season. Sometimes you just get an offer on a player that will be hard to refuse.

then who do we trade. teams that are shacking things up do not want futures. the only asset we have that is not futuredraft picks is young LD Allen kaiser del mastro KK. we could move one of those but have any of them done enough to return real solid value?

 

[x Tame Impala]

Yes, proving my point hes underrated. I know all the talking points.

Why should we be talking about him in the same breath? Those guys have 6 cups between them. You think hes as talented as Kucherov and Kane? If so then we should for sure try to sign him.

Hes 17th overall in PPG in the playoffs and its only a 57 game sample size. One good playoff run woud put him right there with Kane Point Malkin Guentzel Pasta.

As of now hes got the same PPG as Ovi Marchand an Tkachuk. Leafs microscope.

The Leafs are build for offense, his playoff numbers should be much better and they’re not. This isn’t just stat watching either, I’ve seen quite a few Leaf playoff games and Marner doesn’t rise to the occasion based on what I’ve seen.

Granted he may thrive in a different neighborhood but that’s a big risk for his likely huge contract.

 

[TheFridge]

then who do we trade. teams that are shacking things up do not want futures. the only asset we have that is not futuredraft picks is young LD Allen kaiser del mastro KK. we could move one of those but have any of them done enough to return real solid value?

Do I look like a GM for an NHL team? I don't know who's going to be available or what they'll cost. My point is that it would make more sense to target younger players via trade than it would to throw 15M at near 30-year-old UFA,

 

[BHawk21]

Do I look like a GM for an NHL team? I don't know who's going to be available or what they'll cost. My point is that it would make more sense to target younger players via trade than it would to throw 15M at near 30-year-old UFA,

adding elite talent is a good thing. you saw that Davidson was willing shoot for Guentzel last year. Hes going for Marner this year because he needs elite top 6 talent to help his young players reach their potential. Marner has the chance to produce offensively and defensively for the next 7 years. Go get him if you can.

 

[Muffinalt]

Im fine with Marner's risk to be honest, because we wouldn't want him to be the top guy, but rather one of the core, next to hopefully 2-3 equally good players.

But what he gives next to his skill is very good and what this team needs - more speed and most importantly defense. He's a top line player that plays defense, and is a set up guy and space opener for Bedard. He's also the soul of the Leafs team and would be a welcome addition in the locker.

I also don't think it's likey he comes, but if it could happen go for it for sure.

It's the Ehlers and the Boesers that scare me. Those guys have big question marks (defense and speed respectively) that could make them really flawed over the course of a playoffs and commiting big bucks to players we wish could be something else is a bad bad strategy. So I hope we don't sign them if we miss out or Marner.

I'd rather just go stopgaps if no Marner. Or maybe find the defensively capable players, who are hopefully speedy too.

 

[TheFridge]

adding elite talent is a good thing. you saw that Davidson was willing shoot for Guentzel last year. Hes going for Marner this year because he needs elite top 6 talent to help his young players reach their potential. Marner has the chance to produce offensively and defensively for the next 7 years. Go get him if you can.

We don't know anything about their offer for Guentzel. We don't know the term, the AAV, nothing. We know they made an offer to him. Great.

 

[BHawk21]

We don't know anything about their offer for Guentzel. We don't know the term, the AAV, nothing. We know they made an offer to him. Great.

lol ok

 

[TheFridge]

lol ok

What was their offer BHawk?

 

[BHawk21]

What was their offer BHawk?

I dont know but I am gunna go out on a limb and say Davidson with the second worst record in the league wasnt trying to lowball an offer to Guentzel.

 

[TheFridge]

I dont know but I am gunna go out on a limb and say Davidson with the second worst record in the league wasnt trying to lowball an offer to Guentzel.

Oh, you don't know.

So what was funny about my post?

Who said anything about lowballing anyone?

 

[BHawk21]

Oh, you don't know.

So what was funny about my post?

Who said anything about lowballing anyone?

I never said I knew...

The funny thing about your post is you trying to insinuate that because the offer details weren't public changes the fact that Davidson was going after a 30 year old top UFA winger just last year.

 

[u2wojo]

If Marner wants to come to Chicago on a contract that pays him =<9% of the cap, I'd sign him no problem. That's what Hossa did. That means Marner would sign here, next year, on a cap of 92.4M for 8.58M per year. Do we think that's going to happen?

Part of why Hossa worked in CHI so well, was that the AAV was so low relative to his performance that it didn't matter that he wasn't a prolific scorer in the playoffs. He played great two-way hockey and chipped in. He wasn't the guy and he wasn't paid to be the guy relative to the cap. His contract enabled the Hawks to keep guys like Sharp and Hammer and fill out their depth. If Hossa had signed for 14-16% of the cap, like it would take to sign Marner, the Hawks wouldn't have been able to keep Sharp and then they most certainly don't win 3 Cups.

As soon as the league starts allowing cap circumventing front loaded contracts neither the team nor player intend on seeing the player reach the end of actually playing again, the Hawks can sign a Hossa contract again. Problem is, you can't do massively frontloaded 12 year contracts that run through age 42 that everyone knows the last few years will be spent on LTIR/retired. Hossa's cap hit may have been 5.275 but he was actually payed an average of 7 million per for the 7 years he was a Hawk (or actually 11.4% of the cap).

Right or wrong, guys like Hossa don't get paid what guys who put up more points like Marner get paid.

 

[BHawk21]

As soon as the league starts allowing cap circumventing front loaded contracts neither the team nor player intend on seeing the player reach the end of actually playing again, the Hawks can sign a Hossa contract again. Problem is, you can't do massively frontloaded 12 year contracts that run through age 42 that everyone knows the last few years will be spent on LTIR/retired. Hossa's cap hit may have been 5.275 but he was actually payed an average of 7 million per for the 7 years he was a Hawk (or actually 11.4% of the cap).

Right or wrong, guys like Hossa don't get paid what guys who put up more points like Marner get paid.

11.4% of the cap in (113.5) 2028 looks like its about 13 million. The hawks wouldn't have to worry about overpaying until about then anyway.

 

[kmwtrucks]

marner at 7 X $14 would be great for the hawks. He turns 28 on my bday (cinco de mayo) so he would be playing 28,29,30,31,32,33,34, in his full 7 seasons. if we did make a deep playoff run he would turn 35 in that playoffs. in his last 6 seasons 22-27 he has scored 600 pts in 490 games 1.23 per game. and we are going to have alot of guys what will be on ELC and RFA in those times so we can always bridge if it makes sense if we are up against the cap.

 

[TheFridge]

I never said I knew...

The funny thing about your post is you trying to insinuate that because the offer details weren't public changes the fact that Davidson was going after a 30 year old top UFA winger just last year.

My post didn't try to insinuate anything. But your don't really seem like a details guy, so you can be forgiven for assuming something and then running with it.

Did Davidson offer Guentzel 7 years or did he offer him 4? Do you think things like that matter? Do you think KD and the FO are thinking about those things, trying to be creative or do you think they just blanket offered 30-year-old Jake Guentzel 7 years at whatever AAV because he eventually signed a 7 year deal?

Because, I'd have been down to sign Guentzel for 4 years at 12.5M AAV. I would have been completely against giving Guentzel 7 years. Signing 30-year-olds to 7 year contracts when your best players (or future best players) are all 23 or younger and you haven't even approached your contention window, let alone opened it, is stupid as shit.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

If Marner wants to come to Chicago on a contract that pays him =<9% of the cap, I'd sign him no problem. That's what Hossa did. That means Marner would sign here, next year, on a cap of 92.4M for 8.58M per year. Do we think that's going to happen?

Part of why Hossa worked in CHI so well, was that the AAV was so low relative to his performance that it didn't matter that he wasn't a prolific scorer in the playoffs. He played great two-way hockey and chipped in. He wasn't the guy and he wasn't paid to be the guy relative to the cap. His contract enabled the Hawks to keep guys like Sharp and Hammer and fill out their depth. If Hossa had signed for 14-16% of the cap, like it would take to sign Marner, the Hawks wouldn't have been able to keep Sharp and then they most certainly don't win 3 Cups.

Hossa contract isn't legal under the current CBA. If anyone expects to get a significant UFA to sign for 9% of the cap don't expect external help.

 

[TheFridge]

As soon as the league starts allowing cap circumventing front loaded contracts neither the team nor player intend on seeing the player reach the end of actually playing again, the Hawks can sign a Hossa contract again. Problem is, you can't do massively frontloaded 12 year contracts that run through age 42 that everyone knows the last few years will be spent on LTIR/retired. Hossa's cap hit may have been 5.275 but he was actually payed an average of 7 million per for the 7 years he was a Hawk (or actually 11.4% of the cap).

Right or wrong, guys like Hossa don't get paid what guys who put up more points like Marner get paid.

Yeah man, that's the crux of my point. Guys like Marner, guys like Hossa, that would necessitate in today's world a large piece of your cap space pie, wouldn't be worth it. Hossa wouldn't have been worth it in 2009-10 if it meant he'd be making 13-15% of the cap (which is what some fans here want to offer Marner), resulting in your inability to keep other key pieces/fill out your depth. The Hossa signing worked so well for CHI because they were able to keep his AAV low.

So again, if Marner wants to come here for 9M per, lets get him signed. If he wants to get paid all-world money, he needs to be all-world and he's not. Not when it matters.

 

[BHawk21]

My post didn't try to insinuate anything. But your don't really seem like a details guy, so you can be forgiven for assuming something and then running with it.

Did Davidson offer Guentzel 7 years or did he offer him 4? Do you think things like that matter? Do you think KD and the FO are thinking about those things, trying to be creative or do you think they just blanket offered 30-year-old Jake Guentzel 7 years at whatever AAV because he eventually signed a 7 year deal?

Because, I'd have been down to sign Guentzel for 4 years at 12.5M AAV. I would have been completely against giving Guentzel 7 years. Signing 30-year-olds to 7 year contracts when your best players (or future best players) are all 23 or younger and you haven't even approached your contention window, let alone opened it, is stupid as shit.

Yes, this is a good imaginary scenario. Im just gunna use common sense on this one.

I do think Davidson would try to see it from Guentzels side. Ok your trying to cash in. Would you take the 7 years or 8 years from all these teams better then us or would you take less total money and less years from the worst team in the league.

 

[u2wojo]

Yeah man, that's the crux of my point. Guys like Marner, guys like Hossa, that would necessitate in today's world a large piece of your cap space pie, wouldn't be worth it. Hossa wouldn't have been worth it in 2009-10 if it meant he'd be making 13-15% of the cap (which is what some fans here want to offer Marner), resulting in your inability to keep other key pieces/fill out your depth. The Hossa signing worked so well for CHI because they were able to keep his AAV low.

So again, if Marner wants to come here for 9M per, lets get him signed. If he wants to get paid all-world money, he needs to be all-world and he's not. Not when it matters.

What else are we spending that money on over the next say 5 years? Last Summer we dumped 18 million per year into a UFA class of 2 mediocre middle 6 wingers, a washed Dman, and a goalie that may never play a game in the Indianhead at this point. Marner at 13 or even 14 does realistically absolutely nothing for the Hawks ability to retain their own prospects coming off their ELC (even with the most optomistic outloook on what our prospects could become....and they never all do). I would MUCH rather have 1 IMPACT UFA like Marner at 14 then the pile we spent 18 on last Summer with the hope that we can fill middle 6 winger spots, terrible bottom pairing D, and never healthy G internally with prospects/guys on their 2nd contract.

 

[TheFridge]

Yes, this is a good imaginary scenario. Im just gunna use common sense on this one.

I do think Davidson would try to see it from Guentzels side. Ok your trying to cash in. Would you take the 7 years or 8 years from all these teams better then us or would you take less money and less years from the worst team in the league.

Well he went to market, so he could only get 7 years. Not 7 or 8. Again, not a details guy so you're forgiven.

4 years at 12.5M per certainly would have been less term and it would have been less guaranteed money over the next 7 years but it would have been significantly more money over the next 4 years than he's going to earn over the first 4 years of his deal with TB (50M vs 39M) and would have left the door open for him to sign another big contract at 34 to finish his career, instead of signing a 7 year deal that effectively takes him to retirement.

 

[BHawk21]

Well he went to market, so he could only get 7 years. Not 7 or 8. Again, not a details guy so you're forgiven.

4 years at 12.5M per certainly would have been less term and it would have been less guaranteed money over the next 7 years but it would have been significantly more money over the next 4 years than he's going to earn over the first 4 years of his deal with TB (50M vs 39M) and would have left the door open for him to sign another big contract at 34 to finish his career, instead of signing a 7 year deal that effectively takes him to retirement.

Well he didnt make it to market....He signed in Tampa before July 1st. Details. He was able to sign in Carolina for 8 years at that time which was a possibility right until the end. Thats okay your bogged down on thinking somehow Davidson didnt give Guentzel a full term offer.

Everything they have shown and where they are in the rebuild show they are going to go after Marner. I think its a great idea you dont. Thats okay we disagree.

 

[TheFridge]

What else are we spending that money on over the next say 5 years? Last Summer we dumped 18 million per year into a UFA class of 2 mediocre middle 6 wingers, a washed Dman, and a goalie that may never play a game in the Indianhead at this point. Marner at 13 or even 14 does realistically absolutely nothing for the Hawks ability to retain their own prospects coming off their ELC (even with the most optomistic outloook on what our prospects could become....and they never all do). I would MUCH rather have 1 IMPACT UFA like Marner at 14 then the pile we spent 18 on last Summer with the hope that we can fill middle 6 winger spots, terrible bottom pairing D, and never healthy G internally with prospects/guys on their 2nd contract.

Bertuzzi and Teravainen aren't going to be here when the window opens. They're stop-gaps. Better stop-gaps than we had the year prior, but stop-gaps nonetheless and their contracts at the time of signing represented <6.25% of the cap.

It's not the 13 or 14M next year that matters. It's not the 13 or 14M that matters in the next 3 years. It's going to be years 5-7 of that contract that have a high likelihood of tanking the Hawks cap.

Bedard's getting big money some time over the length of that contract. Levshunov, if he hits, will be getting big money. Rinzel if he hits. Whoever you draft this year. Whoever you draft next year. Some of the kids they've drafted are going to pop and will need new big contracts.

Every team is destined to make tough roster choices at some point in any competitive window. I don't see the point in compounding that by signing a guy who has never been worth the contract he's signed to currently, to a deal in which his impact will be greatest in years that will matter the least to the Hawks competitive window.

 

[TheFridge]

Well he didnt make it to market....He signed in Tampa before July 1st. Details. He was able to sign in Carolina for 8 years at that time which was a possibility right until the end. Thats okay your bogged down on thinking somehow Davidson didnt give Guentzel a full term offer.

Everything they have shown and where they are in the rebuild show they are going to go after Marner. I think its a great idea you dont. Thats okay we disagree.

He signed his contract on July 1st, after the Lightning traded for his rights on June 30th. He went to market for all intents and purposes, the team that eventually signed him just got his rights a day early.

If you were the GM, we'd have Necas for whatever stupid package you wanted to offer at the time and we'd have Guentzel on a 7-year-deal for more AAV than he signed for him TB. We'd be well on our way to reaching and stagnating in the murky NHL middle. We definitely disagree on that being where we want to end up.