Speculation: 2025-26 Ducks Defense (Overview)

[Arthuros]

That crop of available RHD is looking ROUGH.

I don't like any of the FAs, and I don't see any other way to get a good enough RHD other than a very expensive trade.

Also, declaring that playoffs is the goal for next season will jack prices up for sure. I do wonder if that might mean that it opens up the candidate pool, though. Not like we'd swing someone like McAvoy, but who knows.

 

[DavidBL]

Imo, we need another veteran D who is GOOD at defense. I don't think we want a offense guy as that's what the kids mostly do. Its one of the reasons we wanted to move Fowler. Honestly I'm a bit torn on LD vs RD. A LD would balance the styles a bit but would mean moving one of the kids to their offside or off the team all together. If it's only for a few years it would allow some time for Solberg to get NHL ready. Add a RD is generally an easier decision as it doesn't force you to move on from any of the promising kids but is typically more expensive and I'm not sure there are many realistic options.

 

[Hey234]

I don't think anyone could argue that a long-term solution for RHD is a real necessity. The issue is that between Luneau, Moore, Helleson, & Warren, none project to be a #2 with LaCombe. The logic behind filling that need is sound.

The problem is that it's one of the hardest positions to fill in the NHL. The likelihood of upgrading that position this summer seems highly unlikely.

Gudas is the captain and is either playing the whole season or traded at the deadline. I would be shocked if they traded their captain this summer. Verbeek has made public statements about how next season will determine if he'll re-sign Trouba. Seems unlikely he's looking to upgrade him unless something falls into their lap. Helleson could be upgraded but if both Trouba and Gudas are not on the team next season, someone cheap and effective like Helleson seems smart to retain.

To me, either drafting or trading for a young player with the potential to be a #2 with LaCombe seems like the only realistic solutions. Next season is the one where decisions and upgrades on defense seem more realistic.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Extend Lacombe now before the price explodes is my first thought seeing this(or is there some stupid rule that we cant?)

And yes an experienced RHD strong defensive guy is needed and it's probably gotta come via trade

 

[JAHV]

Extend Lacombe now before the price explodes is my first thought seeing this(or is there some stupid rule that we cant?)

And yes an experienced RHD strong defensive guy is needed and it's probably gotta come via trade

I also think they should extend LaCombe. They can do that starting on July 1st.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I don't think anyone could argue that a long-term solution for RHD is a real necessity. The issue is that between Luneau, Moore, Helleson, & Warren, none project to be a #2 with LaCombe. The logic behind filling that need is sound.

The problem is that it's one of the hardest positions to fill in the NHL. The likelihood of upgrading that position this summer seems highly unlikely.

Gudas is the captain and is either playing the whole season or traded at the deadline. I would be shocked if they traded their captain this summer. Verbeek has made public statements about how next season will determine if he'll re-sign Trouba. Seems unlikely he's looking to upgrade him unless something falls into their lap. Helleson could be upgraded but if both Trouba and Gudas are not on the team next season, someone cheap and effective like Helleson seems smart to retain.

To me, either drafting or trading for a young player with the potential to be a #2 with LaCombe seems like the only realistic solutions. Next season is the one where decisions and upgrades on defense seem more realistic.

We don't need the RD1 to be a #2 d-man type. We can get away with a 2nd pairing talent at RD1 like we did with Manson. Anaheim needs Helleson, Moore, or Warren to become that stay-at-home RD for LaCombe. Moore seems to be a dark horse as Defend the Nest site noted that Moore would be it's best defenseman on the Gulls, including beating out Luneau. Moore is the fastest RD we have in our system.

If we don't acquire a top-4 RD this summer, then I can see Moore developing in the AHL for half a season and brought up on call-ups. He would be a the best bet for being a top-4 defensive RD, but I dunno if I trust him to be a top pairing RD with LaCombe. If Moore dominates in the AHL next season, then that would be a positive sign.

As for a #2 d-man next season, that all hangs on the development steps of either Zellweger or Mintyukov. Both have two NHL seasons under their belts and at least one of them needs to take a significant step forward next season to fill that #2 role. Our weakest spots, IMO, are with Zellweger and Minty.

Although, if we are looking to draft a defensive-minded top-4 RD, then we are either hoping Mrtka falls to us or have Madden believe the Hensler can be become one in the future to select him over other forwards. A faster solution would be to trade for RD Wallinder and stick him in the AHL this season.

 

[DavidBL]

Are we so confident that last year was the real deal with Lacombe? Because the extension people are asking for could turn real bad if it wasn't.

 

[LuGBuG]

Are we so confident that last year was the real deal with Lacombe? Because the extension people are asking for could turn real bad if it wasn't.

Yes. 100% convinced.

 

[JAHV]

Are we so confident that last year was the real deal with Lacombe? Because the extension people are asking for could turn real bad if it wasn't.

Yes. It wasn't like he had a good year superficially where he put up a ton of points from secondary assists and a high shooting percentage. His shooting percentage was high, but the goals were incidental to his success.

Even if he declines to 8 goals next year, it was all the other stuff that was excellent - takeaways, zone exits and entries, leading the rush, zone denials, etc. He played like a 1D even without the goals. That feels sustainable. In a better system, the points could increase even more and we're looking at $10 million next offseason instead of $7.5 - 8.

 

[FiveTacos]

Yes. It wasn't like he had a good year superficially where he put up a ton of points from secondary assists and a high shooting percentage. His shooting percentage was high, but the goals were incidental to his success.

And the shooting % was mainly high because he's always scoring from in tight. Almost half his goals came from right around the crease.

His shot map is very unusual.

 

[Gliff]

Ya, I have no concern about LaCombe. Lock him up.

Another thing to take into account, he only has 3 more years of RFA control (2 after this contract). So any bridge would need to be 1 year, and that would take him to to his last year of RFA rights and arbitration.

Just lock him up if they can get him for 8 or less. Anything more then that and I can see the upside of at least making him earn it another year.

 

[Sendhelp2Anaheim]

We don't need the RD1 to be a #2 d-man type. We can get away with a 2nd pairing talent at RD1 like we did with Manson. Anaheim needs Helleson, Moore, or Warren to become that stay-at-home RD for LaCombe. Moore seems to be a dark horse as Defend the Nest site noted that Moore would be it's best defenseman on the Gulls, including beating out Luneau. Moore is the fastest RD we have in our system.

If we don't acquire a top-4 RD this summer, then I can see Moore developing in the AHL for half a season and brought up on call-ups. He would be a the best bet for being a top-4 defensive RD, but I dunno if I trust him to be a top pairing RD with LaCombe. If Moore dominates in the AHL next season, then that would be a positive sign.

As for a #2 d-man next season, that all hangs on the development steps of either Zellweger or Mintyukov. Both have two NHL seasons under their belts and at least one of them needs to take a significant step forward next season to fill that #2 role. Our weakest spots, IMO, are with Zellweger and Minty.

Although, if we are looking to draft a defensive-minded top-4 RD, then we are either hoping Mrtka falls to us or have Madden believe the Hensler can be become one in the future to select him over other forwards. A faster solution would be to trade for RD Wallinder and stick him in the AHL this season.

Biggest thing with zellweger/Mintyukov is patience…. It’ll be their 3rd season in nhl, but they will still be 2 years younger than someone like Lacombe when he made his debut.

Hoping the coaching change/system change will yield good results from both young guys. another full offseason for both guys will hopefully help with strength/conditioning.

luneau will be tough to leave off the roster as soon as this year…. But we don’t exactly have room for him…. Curious to see what PV does regarding the right side.

 

[Sendhelp2Anaheim]

Ya, I have no concern about LaCombe. Lock him up.

Another thing to take into account, he only has 3 more years of RFA control (2 after this contract). So any bridge would need to be 1 year, and that would take him to to his last year of RFA rights and arbitration.

Just lock him up if they can get him for 8 or less. Anything more than that and I can see the upside of at least making him earn it another year.

What type of number are you thinking?
8x8?

I feel like it would be dumb for lacombe to take anything less than 8 a year, and anything under is a sweet deal for us

 

[JAHV]

What type of number are you thinking?
8x8?

I feel like it would be dumb for lacombe to take anything less than 8 a year, and anything under is a sweet deal for us

I feel like they might be able to get him for something between $7 and $8. He's only a second year player and hasn't sustained it, so they might be able to get him to sign because it's still a crapload of guaranteed money. If I'm LaCombe and they say they'll do $7.5 for 8 years but anything more and they want to wait a year, that's a tough deal to pass up as a guy who's only made just above the minimum for a couple seasons.

 

[Gliff]

What type of number are you thinking?
8x8?

I feel like it would be dumb for lacombe to take anything less than 8 a year, and anything under is a sweet deal for us

There isn't really a perfect comp because a lot of guys on his level had more service time and/or signed their longterm deal after their ELC, which was younger because they have more service time.

Power - 7x8.35 age 21 at start of contract, signed Oct 1 year prior with 1 season of experience.
Seider - 7x8.5 age 23 at start of contract, signed right before the season with 3 full seasons experience.
Sanderson - 8x8 age 22 at start of contract, signed September the season prior with 1 season of experience.
Chabot - 8x8 age 23 at start of contract, signed September the season prior with 2 full seasons experience.
Sergachev - 8x8.5 age 25 at the start of the contract, signed July a year early with 5 seasons experience.

I think I would be shocked if he took less then 8 mil per, especially since most of those deals were buying less UFA years, and were signed before the cap uptick. If the Ducks can get 8x8 then they should jump on it.

 

[anezthes]

Even if LaCap'n regresses to a top-4 D, he'll still be worth $8M as the cap rises.

 

[Gliff]

Even if LaCap'n regresses to a top-4 D, he'll still be worth $8M as the cap rises.

Just comparing to Fowler's contracts, his 2nd contract was 6.25% of the cap in the first year.
His 3rd was 7.4% of the cap.
8 mil cap hit for Lacombe will be 7.7% of the cap in the first year.

So even if he levels out as a Fowler level #2/3 then 8 mil is still a market value deal. If he continues to get better 8 mil will be a steal.

 

[JAHV]

There isn't really a perfect comp because a lot of guys on his level had more service time and/or signed their longterm deal after their ELC, which was younger because they have more service time.

Power - 7x8.35 age 21 at start of contract, signed Oct 1 year prior with 1 season of experience.
Seider - 7x8.5 age 23 at start of contract, signed right before the season with 3 full seasons experience.
Sanderson - 8x8 age 22 at start of contract, signed September the season prior with 1 season of experience.
Chabot - 8x8 age 23 at start of contract, signed September the season prior with 2 full seasons experience.
Sergachev - 8x8.5 age 25 at the start of the contract, signed July a year early with 5 seasons experience.

I think I would be shocked if he took less then 8 mil per, especially since most of those deals were buying less UFA years, and were signed before the cap uptick. If the Ducks can get 8x8 then they should jump on it.

Those are good comps, and with the cap rising, you're probably right that $8 million is a reasonable number now. The biggest difference between those guys and LaCombe are that those guys all had first round pedigree; all were top 10 picks with Chabot as the only exception (he was 18 OA). I think teams felt comfortable going long-term and high dollar with guys who were selected with that in mind, so even if they only had one good season under their belt, it was expected they'd live up to it.

LaCombe was selected in a spot (39 OA) where you don't normally get 1st pairing d-men, so I think the Ducks would be within reason to offer something lower with only one good season under his belt. I'm not looking for them to lowball anyone, so if they can lock him up now, I say go for it as long as the price isn't much over $8 million. But I could see $7.5 still being reasonable.

 

[Gliff]

Those are good comps, and with the cap rising, you're probably right that $8 million is a reasonable number now. The biggest difference between those guys and LaCombe are that those guys all had first round pedigree; all were top 10 picks with Chabot as the only exception (he was 18 OA). I think teams felt comfortable going long-term and high dollar with guys who were selected with that in mind, so even if they only had one good season under their belt, it was expected they'd live up to it.

LaCombe was selected in a spot (39 OA) where you don't normally get 1st pairing d-men, so I think the Ducks would be within reason to offer something lower with only one good season under his belt. I'm not looking for them to lowball anyone, so if they can lock him up now, I say go for it as long as the price isn't much over $8 million. But I could see $7.5 still being reasonable.

100% agree those are factors, but I also think the rising cap more then balances it out.
Chabot - 9.1%
Seider - 9.7%
Power - 9.5%
Sanderson - 9.1%
Sergachev - 9.7%


Taking that range and extrapolating it to the 104 mil cap in 2 years, thats 9.46-10.09 mil cap hit. If they can get him at 7.5 then they should be sprinting to the table. Shit, if they can get him for 8 they should be running to the table.

 

[Rasp]

LaCombe has one more season before he is RFA. I would easily give him 8x8 if he backs it up again next season meaning he would be signed until 33.

 

[DavidBL]

Yes. It wasn't like he had a good year superficially where he put up a ton of points from secondary assists and a high shooting percentage. His shooting percentage was high, but the goals were incidental to his success.

Even if he declines to 8 goals next year, it was all the other stuff that was excellent - takeaways, zone exits and entries, leading the rush, zone denials, etc. He played like a 1D even without the goals. That feels sustainable. In a better system, the points could increase even more and we're looking at $10 million next offseason instead of $7.5 - 8.

I guess I'm more skeptical off of 1 good season given we're talking 7-8 mill. If he regresses we could be on the hook for 3-4 mill on an over pay for 8 years.

 

[Sendhelp2Anaheim]

So @branmuffin17

Where’s the goalie overview!

No respect!

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

Solberg is making the team.. Zellweger might get traded as one of Gudas or Trouba.. Im guessing Gudas might go to make room for Moore. Gudas health problems might be an issue