ynotcaps
Registered User
- Aug 4, 2006
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It sounds smart on its face. But look at the state of 3rd round picks in the league. Going back 5 years to 2019: (data from Pro Football Reference)
(Not including '23 and '24 because they're all still "potentially somebody" 6 weeks into their 1st or second season.)
2019: 10 of 38 3rd rounders have been primary starters at their positions since their first or second year; 1 has been named a 1st Team AP; 3 others have made 1 PB (incl. TML)
2020: 7 of 42 3rds have been primary starters since first or second year; 1 1st Team APs; 3 Pro Bowlers (D. Duvernay has the AP and 2 PBs -- as a KR)
2021: 11 of 41 match the 1st/2nd starter criteria; 0 APs; 0 PBs
2022: 14 of 41 meet the starter criteria; 1 AP (Marcus Jones, NE CB); 0 PBs
Net-net: at best 1 in 3 third rounders will become primary starters at their position (though not necessarily for the team that drafted them.) 33% chance. I won't even say "Higgins," (OK, that didn't count), but one or even 2 3rds for a young player who has already demonstrated he can produce in the league (include a CB if you like, if there's one that can be found in trade at that price) is, to me, worth that price.
I also looked into teams that are generally thought to have drafted well recently in that same timeframe. Here's what their 3rds look like:
BAL:
2019: WR Miles Boykin (38 career receptions, now w/ PIT); DE Jaylon Ferguson (out of the league)
2020: DT Nnamdi Madubuike (4th year starter, 1 PB); WR Devin Duvernay (1 AP, 2 PB, all as KR -- 95 career recep's, now w/ JAX); LB Malik Henderson (27 career starts, 133 career tackles); OL Tyre Phillips (13 starts in 2 years w/ BAL, 2 yeas w/ NYG, now out pending injury recovery)
2021: OL Ben Cleveland (7 career starts, lots of injuries, 1 ****ing blocked kick...); CB Brandon Stephens (2nd year as primary starter)
2022: DT Travis Jones (1st year as primary starter)
Of 9 picks, 3 are primary starters (one in his first year as such), 2 really good players -- though only one is still with the team -- and 2 guys that aren't in the league within 5 years of being drafted.
KC:
2019: DT Khalen Saunders (4 year back-up for KC, 1 year starter for NO)
2020: OT Lucas Niang (career back-up, cut this summer, on KC practice squad)
2021: No pick
2022: LB Leo Chenal (part-time starter, reasonably productive -- I wanted him in his draft year)
3 picks, 1 is a useful contributor (33% -- like the 3 of 9 for BAL, huh.)
SF: (blood relative now...)
2019: WR Jalen Hurd (never played a down in the NFL)
2020: No pick
2021: RB Trey Sermon (9 appearances in rookie year, then 1 year w/ PHI, now in 2nd year w/ IND); DB Ambry Thomas (11 career starts; currently on IR)
2022: RB Tyrion Davis-Price (40 career carries for KC, now on PHI practice squad); WR Danny Gray (1 career reception for KC, now also on PHI PS)
5 picks, 1 may be a useful player.
After this exercise, I'm more in favor of using 3rds in a trade scenario like described above than I was before. Hell yes to a proven starter for one or 2 picks that are statistically unlikely to yield a starter, or even a useful back-up. Especially when the starter can play today and won't need 1 or 2 or more years of JD's rookie contract that a 3rd would likely need even if they were the lucky strike.
Now, excuse me, I need to go to bed. (And when I wake up tomorrow, to get a life.)
