OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[Jags]

The Commanders should be desperate for seasons approaching that.

Them acting desperate is the last thing they should want. We're in a fantastic position right now. Lightyears from desperate.

Like... you are focusing way hard on the wrong details of this

I think you'll be shocked to read that I think it's the other way around.

Moss helped them get exactly one game further than they did the year before, during the year that he signed with them for peanuts. Not his fault, but they did worse his other 2 years there than they did in 2006.

We absolutely agree that if there's a Randy Moss out there that wants to sign with us for $2.5m like he did with the Pats, that's the king of no-brainers. But that's not what we're talking about. People here said, "Let's give up two 3rds to rent and then sign Tee Higgins."

wasn't TJ Oshie a struggling borderline "star" that found a new role and flourished in another organization?

Yes, acquired in a smart move. We gave up a guy that was kinda blah and got back a guy with promise. We did not give up 2 valuable draft picks to rent a guy we could get for free a couple months later.

I thought the discussion here was about adding another quality weapon like a Higgins or other, just, like... better guy?

It is. I'm all for upgrading the Zacchaeus spot. I would just like to do it without surrendering important assets. We're doing fine right now with what we have. This, to me, does not feel like a time to "go all in." Your mileage may vary.

Look, I hate the Patriots and doing this but Wes Welker is easily better than anyone on roster not named Terry McLaurin even as a Dolphin before going to New England.

Well yeah, but if he'd stayed in Miami or went just about anywhere else, he'd have been Wayne Chrebet.

Nothing to sneeze at by any means. But if your point is let's get the equivalent of a $3.6m Welker instead of a $9m Moss, then we're 100% on the same page, cuz that's exactly what I've been talking about this whole time. Let's keep our draft picks and make smarter, cheaper decisions, then spend the big chunk of money we saved on something else we need more.

I don't know how this conversation became "flashy acquisition" vs. "stay the course" but it should be abundantly clear that this team would be better with two bonafide threats to win routes that don't always have to be schemed on most downs.

Every team would be better with two great things instead of one. No one is offering us a Randy Moss for 2.5m, so there's really no comparison there. I'm saying that if there's any comparison to the Pats' heyday that I identify with, it's that we should build our team the way they built theirs. They did the opposite of trading away valuable picks to acquire talent at a time when acquiring talent other ways was insanely easy and not expensive for them.

I think free agents are going to want to play for a well-coached DC team that builds well around Daniels and balances it with a capable defense. We don't need to make trades like the one suggested here yesterday.

New England's depth WRs in 2006 are definitely worse than the 2023 Commanders, both because they sucked and because they weren't buffered by another Dotson/Samuel level talent, but here's the kicker: as a result they had to chew clock and run to win, had two RBs with 750+ yards, and the number 2 defense in points allowed. Despite his arm talent Brady was relegated to a top-tier game manager, an ineffective use of his overall talent.

That team got to the conference title game and lost by 4. Moss' best Pats team got one game further and lost. Fun year, brutal loss. Yay? Daniels isn't relegated to being any kind of game manager and his talent is being leveraged plenty with exactly the receivers he has right now. Why the rush to give up assets to add another immediately?

I personally prefer to draft more good players with our draft picks and then ALSO sign the best 2WR we can get our hands on. Giving up two valuable picks to get this one guy in particular seems really shortsighted to me.

 

[g00n]

Outside of Terry... why not? I don't think they need a "Moss" for the sake of this discussion (although obviously if someone that good was really on the market I think this whole board would be a little itchy) but I thought the discussion here was about adding another quality weapon like a Higgins or other, just, like... better guy?

Look, I hate the Patriots and doing this but Wes Welker is easily better than anyone on roster not named Terry McLaurin even as a Dolphin before going to New England. Then a great QB and gameplan saw him crack 1,000 yards and become a staple.... I don't know how this conversation became "flashy acquisition" vs. "stay the course" but it should be abundantly clear that this team would be better with two bonafide threats to win routes that don't always have to be schemed on most downs.

New England's depth WRs in 2006 are definitely worse than the 2023 Commanders, both because they sucked and because they weren't buffered by another Dotson/Samuel level talent, but here's the kicker: as a result they had to chew clock and run to win, had two RBs with 750+ yards, and the number 2 defense in points allowed. Despite his arm talent Brady was relegated to a top-tier game manager, an ineffective use of his overall talent. In 2007, on top of adding the 4 wins, Brady and the Patriots added about 1,300 passing yards, only lost about 100 rushing on the year, and went from 24 to 36 points per game.... Washington doesn't have a lot of those luxuries yet but one thing they can do is take a moderate risk to expand the offense (which has suited them well) and see how it works.

The overall point here is that they knew they could win other ways, but they had a supercharged QB and went out and got him weapons to allow him to play his best game. They learned lessons and refined over time, sure, but the one thing that could almost always be said about the Patriots model is that they were open to adapting to their strengths and weaknesses from season to season and leaning into their strongest identity to win games, and that's what this would be just as they leaned into Brady.

This all started because I made the point/observation/opinion that the emergence of JD as an accurate passer makes the need to cut off our arm to buy a "safety net" big splash type WR unnecessary, so long as you have guys who are good at catching balls dropped in their laps and running accurate routes. That's 99.9% of it.

I can see you dove deep into the Patriots stats but really the Brady thing was just a reference point for that TYPE of effect, and never meant as a direct 100% comparison that requires some huge stat analysis. But this is the internet so this always happens whenever someone mentions a HOF player in any sort of comparative comment...

Point #2 is injuries/depth. Which I've already gone through.

Not mad or being an ass to another member of the 4AM Internet Argument Club, but it's going off the rails a little. At least wrt my points. If people want to have a debate about Moss for several pages that's up to them.

I guess another way of putting it is "I like JD's chances of making WRs better than preseason when the idea was WRs making JD better".

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You guys are lost in the rabbit hole…Jeez this went sideways fast.

Don’t support JD with better weapons is what I’m taking away from one side of this debate.

I’m not on board with that.

And just because we happened to discuss Adams, BA, Higgins, etc….doesn't mean we’re desperate or clamoring for anything other than smart moves by AP. This is a sports TALK forum….so we talk sports. Enjoy it.

 

[Roric]

What the hell is going on in here

 

[Ridley Simon]

Them acting desperate is the last thing they should want. We're in a fantastic position right now. Lightyears from desperate.



I think you'll be shocked to read that I think it's the other way around.

Moss helped them get exactly one game further than they did the year before, during the year that he signed with them for peanuts. Not his fault, but they did worse his other 2 years there than they did in 2006.

We absolutely agree that if there's a Randy Moss out there that wants to sign with us for $2.5m like he did with the Pats, that's the king of no-brainers. But that's not what we're talking about. People here said, "Let's give up two 3rds to rent and then sign Tee Higgins."



Yes, acquired in a smart move. We gave up a guy that was kinda blah and got back a guy with promise. We did not give up 2 valuable draft picks to rent a guy we could get for free a couple months later.



It is. I'm all for upgrading the Zacchaeus spot. I would just like to do it without surrendering important assets. We're doing fine right now with what we have. This, to me, does not feel like a time to "go all in." Your mileage may vary.



Well yeah, but if he'd stayed in Miami or went just about anywhere else, he'd have been Wayne Chrebet.

Nothing to sneeze at by any means. But if your point is let's get the equivalent of a $3.6m Welker instead of a $9m Moss, then we're 100% on the same page, cuz that's exactly what I've been talking about this whole time. Let's keep our draft picks and make smarter, cheaper decisions, then spend the big chunk of money we saved on something else we need more.



Every team would be better with two great things instead of one. No one is offering us a Randy Moss for 2.5m, so there's really no comparison there. I'm saying that if there's any comparison to the Pats' heyday that I identify with, it's that we should build our team the way they built theirs. They did the opposite of trading away valuable picks to acquire talent at a time when acquiring talent other ways was insanely easy and not expensive for them.

I think free agents are going to want to play for a well-coached DC team that builds well around Daniels and balances it with a capable defense. We don't need to make trades like the one suggested here yesterday.



That team got to the conference title game and lost by 4. Moss' best Pats team got one game further and lost. Fun year, brutal loss. Yay? Daniels isn't relegated to being any kind of game manager and his talent is being leveraged plenty with exactly the receivers he has right now. Why the rush to give up assets to add another immediately?

I personally prefer to draft more good players with our draft picks and then ALSO sign the best 2WR we can get our hands on. Giving up two valuable picks to get this one guy in particular seems really shortsighted to me.

I think you severely underrate Higgins.

That and having a player “in the room” almost always makes it easier to resign said player, vs trying to compete with all FA offers out there. I mean, we simply cannot debate that point, can we?

So…..while I understand and mainly agree with your premise, I also think you are off base on a few items WRT Higgins — specifically — and whether or not to try and maximize THIS year.

That is all.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I said the first couple games that the defense looked like it had a plan at least. So in theory the defense should trend up as players get used to working it.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Heard some random chatter about trading for Jaycee Horn at the deadline. Still on his rookie deal. 1 corner upside. Physical Quinn prototype. This is the kind of move worth making.

Terrific player but has had challenges staying healthy and on the field and is going to want to be paid top dollar after his rookie contract. Is that the kind of player AP would target? Genuine question, not trying to be a contrarian.

 

[kicksavedave]

What the hell is going on in here

I dunno but I sent this thread to Adam Peters so he can figure out what to do. He's clearly just winging it thus far

For everyone else, seriously though, AP is on record saying he's going to build through the draft, not with big trades or big UFA's. I think his instant success should further validate his plan, instead of inject a course change so early. We haven't even given his entire draft class a chance to develop fully yet. This team is going to get much better without any outside help. Be patient.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don’t think Higgins will get traded unless Cincy really bottoms out. With Burrow playing so well, I simply cannot see them moving out Higgins.

BUT, he’s the guy I’d move some draft capital for. Much moreso than Adams (and Aiyuk). He’s what we simply don’t have, he’s a great player, from all accounts he’s great in the room, and it sounds like he isn’t looking to break any banks with his next contract…..AND he’s still young.

That’s the exact kinda guy I’d think AP *would* sacrifice draft capital for. Or trade straight up Allen or Payne. Mathis and Newton are looking pretty solid, IMO.

But that’s just me.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Been gone for most of the last week or so — can someone give me the TLDR of what we’re rabble-rabbling about? Need to figure out which side of the teeth gnashing I should be on.

 

[kicksavedave]

Been gone for most of the last week or so — can someone give me the TLDR of what we’re rabble-rabbling about? Need to figure out which side of the teeth gnashing I should be on.

There are those that want us to trade for a WR (insert the name of the week here, Aiyuk, Adams, Higgins, Horn, etc) to help JD succeed, um... more?

 

[HTFN]

Been gone for most of the last week or so — can someone give me the TLDR of what we’re rabble-rabbling about? Need to figure out which side of the teeth gnashing I should be on.

Well we all know I'm not the TL;DR guy, but far as I can tell:

-I think the original premise was "do you add anything or just be patient and let the year pan out?"

-Early WR rumors are discussed, some folks have PTSD from making flashy Snyder-esque additions, others see 4-1 and think the timeline might be accelerated.

-Second premise: does Daniels need weapons, or will he be capable of elevating surrounding players like (for example) the prime Brady Patriots and making "pretty good" work very well?

-This is where everything gets unfocused. Merits of Brady and his receiving cast become a thing, we start unpacking how many of them are Hall of Fame for some reason, it's a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. Personally if this part were distilled down to "did Brady often have 2/3 bonafide targets" instead of HoF guys I think we're all on the same page but it goes screwy.

-We all hyperfocus on Randy Moss as the biggest name on the list (but also because he sort of represents both sides of the argument depending on how you look at it), meanwhile I write Wes Welker a love letter.

-Tangentially debate whether the Patriots going 16-0 is a success.

-Despite this everyone seems to actually agree that more weapons are better, that it's all about opportunity cost (which I think everyone was always on board with) and it becomes clear to me that a lot of this is just the manifestation of the various fears of being a Washington Football fan for too long

 

[Ridley Simon]

There are those that want us to trade for a WR (insert the name of the week here, Aiyuk, Adams, Higgins, Horn, etc) to help JD succeed, um... more?

Horn is a Cornerback. But the rest is accurate.

 

[Jags]

Don’t support JD with better weapons is what I’m taking away from one side of this debate.

I'm not sure anyone said that. I think we're all for upgrading the 2WR spot at least. I think the main issue was do we want to give up real assets to do it immediately/midseason via trade, or do we wait out the year, fully diagnose our needs versus development, and add what we need like we did last offseason.

I think you severely underrate Higgins.

I promise you I don't. I think he's great, and I'm not opposed to spending to get him in free agency (if he makes it there) if the price is right. But third round picks are potentially very valuable, and if we draft well those two guys are cost-controlled for years. I'm not so set on our new 2WR being Higgins that I'm willing to make that kind of trade. I'd rather use those picks more wisely AND get the best 2WR we can, whether it's Higgins or not.

That and having a player “in the room” almost always makes it easier to resign said player

I don't think we'd make the trade without a strong feeling that he'd want to sign, and I agree that if things stay as promising as they are right now -- not that we'll continue at this winning pace, but what's going on IS really promising -- being here for a little while will also make it more likely that he'd want to stay.

BUT, if we trade a couple thirds for him, then we're kind of locked in. If we give up that much to rent him for a few weeks, we're idiots. So in addition to giving up the assets it might hurt our negotiating position a bit for his side to know we're on the hook almost no matter what.

 

[HTFN]

@Jags

Here's a question for you, one I have no input on and just want a thought process for: Is there a potential for better overall value by making that trade anyway?

Best way I can think to say it in general terms is that some folks were suggesting taking a WR with one of the top picks in this coming draft... so at what point does acquiring someone of significant talent/value for those cost-controlled 3rds allow you to draft other areas of need (say, defensive back) without taking multiple fliers on guys who might eventually be as good as the trade target?