Former Football Outsiders guy
Elite, average or bust? We projected NFL careers for the top seven quarterback prospects
Projections for the 2024 class
Caleb Williams, USC
Consensus Big Board: 1
| MEAN PROJECTION | 0.61 TDYAR/A |
|---|
| Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 28.9% |
| Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 25.8% |
| Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 24.1% |
| Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 21.2% |
Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took
Spencer Rattler's
starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the
Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.
Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2
| MEAN PROJECTION | 0.03 TDYAR/A |
|---|
| Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 49.2% |
| Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 25.6% |
| Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 16.3% |
| Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 8.9% |
Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.
Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (
Josh Downs and
Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as
Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.
Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4
| MEAN PROJECTION | 0.34 TDYAR/A |
|---|
| Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 37.7% |
| Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 27.2% |
| Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 20.7% |
| Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 14.4% |
Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of
Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.
However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in
Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (
Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6
| MEAN PROJECTION | 0.20 TDYAR/A |
|---|
| Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 45.9% |
| Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 26.3% |
| Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 17.7% |
| Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 10.1% |
McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan
to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the
best quarterback in Michigan history (even though
Tom Brady went there).
). 
