2024 vs. 2025 first round pick

[CaptainShark]

Hey guys, Sharks-fan here, coming in peace.

Over at the sharks-board we’ve had a discussion for quite some time, if we would rather have the Pens 2024 pick (assumed range 8-12) or the 2025 pick.

As you can see by looking at the poll the Sharks fan-base is split about this.

Some of those who want this years pick go by “bird in the hand…” and are afraid that the Pens could be much better next season, especially is MS is canned.

Most of those who voted for the 2025 pick expect the Pens to be as bad or and this season and take into consideration next year’s draft is supposed to be better (isn’t it always).

I personally see the Pens in a very similar situation to the sharks a few years back and father time is undefeated - the main difference obviously being that Pens got 3 cups with that core, while the Sharks got zilch.

So I’m just interested in your opinion: do you hope the Pens keep this years pick (probably to traded for a quick retool) what do you want them to get the 2025 pick (which if the penguins pick top 10 this season would mean Dubas has to waive protection).

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[BusinessGoose]

I desperately want the pens to end up with an 11+ lottery pick so it goes to you guys and the team can save face by not making the choice that shows they have zero confidence next year

Cause if we're top ten this year, they'll probably keep it, which will give a great pick to SJS next year

We won't improve. And MS will 100% not be fired over the summer

 

[Captain Hook]

Keep the 2025 because I'd much rather pay this debt off to the Sharks sooner than later since it's hard to imagine us being better next year with the core being older and no Guentzel for a full season etc.

That said, my guess is they'll keep this years pick if it's top 10. GM's have egos and Kyle will believe he can make some UFA signings, trades etc. to make the team a little better than the bottom 8-12 finish we're headed for this year.

Also, trading for Karlsson seems cursed. This could be the second time that a team gave a future 1st for him and then it becomes a premium top 10 type of pick.

 

[hohosaregood]

Another Sharks fan here, do you think a coaching change would elevate this team back to playoff contention again? Or is the roster just not good enough anymore? From an outside perspective, the roster seems capable enough even without the firepower of the prime years.

 

[Gurglesons]

Another Sharks fan here, do you think a coaching change would elevate this team back to playoff contention again? Or is the roster just not good enough anymore? From an outside perspective, the roster seems capable enough even without the firepower of the prime years.

I don’t think it is guaranteed, but given we’ve done major upheaval on the roster three years in a row, it’s hard to say that the coaching staff has no blame.

 

[66-30-33]

Keep the 2025 1st round pick and give SJ the 2024 1st round pick.

Another Sharks fan here, do you think a coaching change would elevate this team back to playoff contention again? Or is the roster just not good enough anymore? From an outside perspective, the roster seems capable enough even without the firepower of the prime years.

Pens would be a playoff team if we had a coaching change, we still got the big dawgs. We just need a coach that can coach worth a damn and to stop self sabbotaging this team into the ground.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Either way SJ is getting a really good pick. I doubt this team's gonna be markedly improved next year with all of its issues.

If they move up into a top-5 pick thanks to lotto luck, keep it. If they don't, punt and keep next year's pick.

 

[eXile3]

I assume Dubas will keep the 2024 if he has the chance. He honestly thinks this team can turn it around next year.

Which they actually could but he’s made it clear he’s not willing to do what it would take.

 

[The Old Master]

Another Sharks fan here, do you think a coaching change would elevate this team back to playoff contention again? Or is the roster just not good enough anymore? From an outside perspective, the roster seems capable enough even without the firepower of the prime years.

just going by how much better our players look after they've been moved to other teams....YES

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

I desperately want the pens to end up with an 11+ lottery pick so it goes to you guys and the team can save face by not making the choice that shows they have zero confidence next year

Cause if we're top ten this year, they'll probably keep it, which will give a great pick to SJS next year

We won't improve. And MS will 100% not be fired over the summer

The only way MS will be fired is if he loses the team. We are finally seeing signs of that.

If we tank the rest of the season,
AND retool properly in the summer,
AND then do really badly the first 30 games, ie. showing Sully has lost the team.
THEN and only THEN, maybe Sully gets fired.

What else could happen instead, is the entire assistant coaching staff gets fired.....again :/.

 

[Nakawick]

If it is top 10 the Pens will keep 2024 and the Sharks will get the 2025. The Pens are going to shoot their shot next season, for better or worse.

 

[orby]

If Sullivan gets fired, you'll want the 2024 pick. If he doesn't, you'll want the 2025 pick. This team is only getting worse with Sully at the helm.

 

[Zero Pucks]

If we keep the pick this year and Sullivan isn't fired in the offseason. I'm going to lose my god damn mind.

 

[Epic Neal Time]

I'd lean towards keeping the 2025 pick, unless they win the lottery.

Even looking within the division, are we really jumping over Carolina, NYR, or NJD next year? Also unlikely that Philly takes a step back. Plus NYI and WSH hanging around. If Crosby takes a legit step back... which is more likely than not, we are completely screwed.

 

[Andy99]

I'd lean towards keeping the 2025 pick, unless they win the lottery.

Even looking within the division, are we really jumping over Carolina, NYR, or NJD next year? Also unlikely that Philly takes a step back. Plus NYI and WSH hanging around. If Crosby takes a legit step back... which is more likely than not, we are completely screwed.

Yeah, this is kinda where I’ve been…if you can get someone in the draft who could play next year or the year after, which is pretty much a top three pick, then keep the pick…if the plan is to pick some developmental RD at pick 8-9, then for god sake give the pick to SJ lol…it’s hard to give up a top 10 pick, and I really don’t believe Dubas will do so unfortunately, but they really should…the best players in this draft overall are D men and they take a long time to develop…if Dubas is not going for a full rebuild and plans to actually try to contend next season (not lip service to it) then give up the pick if it’s not in the top three players or so…

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'd lean towards keeping the 2025 pick, unless they win the lottery.

Even looking within the division, are we really jumping over Carolina, NYR, or NJD next year? Also unlikely that Philly takes a step back. Plus NYI and WSH hanging around. If Crosby takes a legit step back... which is more likely than not, we are completely screwed.

Yeah, maybe Sid just keeps defying father time but he's gotta fall off eventually, and with no Jake or anyone near that caliber coming in--yeesh.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

This team won't be worse next year. You should want it this year

 

[Turin]

Pens are going to give the 2025 pick and bet on their upcoming offseason.

 

[chethejet]

If Pens finish in the top 10 you pick. that is the deal. Dubas lottery protected this pick for that reason. Lets say the Pens finish 8th and move up to say 5 with some lottery luck. Pens will draft a very good prospect and my want is a RD as Pens have zip and np question 2025 Pens will move Karlsson and rust for prospects and or picks. So 2025 isn't barren here. Pens will add prospects and draft picks next number of years.

 

[Malkinstheman]

This team is 100% finishing bottom-5 with the mastermind Sullivan next season. if this year's pick is not top-8, I'd give it to the sharks

Pens are going to give the 2025 pick and bet on their upcoming offseason

They shouldn't but this is for sure happening. Team can't talk about contending and then then give up a top-15 pick this year

 

[The Old Master]

This team won't be worse next year. You should want it this year

please share why, i need some optimism

 

[SEALBound]

It's a good question and one that I've been going back and forth on a lot. I have my general assumptions based on logic but I also have several "what-ifs" that justify either option.

The best overall scenario for us, I think, is to simply finish 11+ OV and transfer the pick. Then it's over and done.

If the pick turns into a lottery win where we are drafting 1-3OV, you 1000% keep it and work to be better next year. So the rest of the discussion is under the "6-10ov" slot and what to do then. My gut tells me that Dubas is under the "we believe in this team" cloud. That means they will anticipate being better next year. That means if they finish 1-10ov, they will keep the pick, draft a prospect, and then retool to be better next year through a series a signings and trades. They will give this core one more chance.

Now that said, from my POV, there are different assumptions and what-ifs that change my viewpoint:

1. If they keep Sullivan and are 100% committed to keeping him and having him coach next year with a 0% change of replacement, then I say unless it's 1-3ov, you send it to SJS because I would anticipate the team being just as bad, if not worse next year. It would be tough to give up 5OV but the possibility of being worse next year is very, VERY real if they are 100% committed to Sullivan.

2. IF they send the pick to SJS this year, it opens up the possibility to make more aggressive moves in terms of retooling. That means sending out Pettersson, Jarry, Smith, and possibly one of Rakell or Rust. It would signal good asset management to take valuable pieces and trade them to maximize the return. If they have the 2025 pick, they can openly and freely get worse next year while gaining young players and draft capital. The pieces they would have to trade are pieces that I think would have very good value around the league, particularly Pettersson and Jarry.

3. If they keep the pick in 2024, they MUST do everything possible to be better next year. I mean, ultimately, they will lose a 1st, which sucks, but ideally, you are making the playoffs next year, and it's a whatever. But if they are committed to competing next year, it does make me hope that they are willing to do more things like the Karlsson trade in order to facilitate that. I think they are plenty of interesting moves out there that could really spark this team next year.

Summary:
Keep 2024, give 2025 to SJS if:
1. 1-3 ov lottery winner
2. They fire Sullivan

Give 2024 to SJS, keep 2025 if:
1. It's 9-10ov
2. They keep Sullivan.

 

[Pens1566]

Do we have a deadline on when the decision has to be made? It obviously has to be after the lottery, but ...

 

[SEALBound]

Do we have a deadline on when the decision has to be made? It obviously has to be after the lottery, but ...

72hrs after draft lottery is complete. Or rather "72hrs after we know our draft position".

 

[Boy Hedican]

72hrs after draft lottery is complete. Or rather "72hrs after we know our draft position".

Oh really? Its that conditional? If so, DW is even dumber for not applying that to our own lottery pick when we traded for EK