Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Finalist Connor Hellebuyck

[Jets4Life]

Helle has got to do this in the playoffs, and so far he’s folded. We need him to stand up big this time.

He has only folded in the last couple of years. In 2018, he was great, and one of the main reasons we beat Nashville. In 2019, he actually had better stats than Binnington, who went on to win a Stanley Cup. 2020 is a bit of a write off, as there was a 5 month break, and Laine and Scheifele were hurt in Game 1. Hellebuyck was lights out in 2021, especially vs the Oilers. He was great against Montreal, but Price was arguably better.

The last two series he has under-performed, but against Colorado, that cannot be blamed entirely on Helle. The defence was atrocious, and the Jets seemed shell shocked after game 2. However, he has to be clutch in the post season, if the Jets have a shot at the cup.

 

[Jets4Life]

These numbers are absolutely wild.

The crazy thing is that the SO stat could very easily be in the double digits, too.

There's been the odd cheap goal late in games where it looked like he was cruising to an easy SO.

Special stuff from Vezinabuyck.

That may have happened, if we had kept Kovacevic, instead of Stanley.

 

[DRW204]

Helle has got to do this in the playoffs, and so far he’s folded. We need him to stand up big this time.

agreed. he needs to be a difference maker in the POs. i know folks love comparing his regular season sv% vs PO sv%, but then also refuse to look that the NHL standards in the POs are way higher (duhh you remove the 16 worst teams). he needs to maintain that high level of regular-season dominance into the POs, & be the true difference maker for the Jets. over the last few years he's had 1 series that i think you can point to where he was at the regular-season level of dominance we are accustomed to.

maybe im assigning weight to a v small tournament, however, his showing at a high leverage competition like 4 Nations gives me some confidence Helle is ready to roll this POs.

 

[Jets4Life]

maybe im assigning weight to a v small tournament, however, his showing at a high leverage competition like 4 Nations gives me some confidence Helle is ready to roll this POs.

Hellebuyck was by far and away, the best goalie in the 4 Nations Cup. 0.931% and miles ahead in high danger shots. Binnington played out of his mind in the last 1/2 of the final and deserved credit, but Helle would have been named the MVP, had the Americans won in OT. And let's face it, nobody was going to stop a prime McDavid open in the slot like that.

 

[Jet]

That may have happened, if we had kept Kovacevic, instead of Stanley.

Lol ridiculous

 

[Buffdog]

That may have happened, if we had kept Kovacevic, instead of Stanley.

 

[Jets4Life]

I honestly believe that in Hellebuyck played in a large NHL market, he would win the Hart Trophy. 45 wins sets a Jets record for wins in a season. Hellebuyck also had his 320th win in his career, passing Kiprusoff, Anderson, and Lehtonon on the all-time wins list. Helle is now #5 for American goalies and #32 in all-time wins.

 

[PhilJets]

He should even in Winnipeg.. He is the front runner how important he is to the JETS, team has been #1 in the league since day 1, and his stats . But yeah, media bias with big market teams....

 

[UFO]

Helleboy is the best of the best of the best. Hopefully he can back it up in the playoffs and silence his critics.

 

[Daximus]

Helleboy is the best of the best of the best. Hopefully he can back it up in the playoffs and silence his critics.

Needs to prove he's a Helleman.

 

[Buffdog]

He should even in Winnipeg.. He is the front runner how important he is to the JETS, team has been #1 in the league since day 1, and his stats . But yeah, media bias with big market teams....


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Off topic, but Kuemper is having a hell of a bounce back season after the "we'll trade you our trash for your trash" offseason deal

 

[Gm0ney]

Off topic, but Kuemper is having a hell of a bounce back season after the "we'll trade you our trash for your trash" offseason deal

He's a decent goalie who has the occasional down year. His good years have generally been very good - 4 times in the Top 10 SV%, 3 times in the Top 5. He also won the Cup with Colorado a few years ago. Underrated.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Off topic, but Kuemper is having a hell of a bounce back season after the "we'll trade you our trash for your trash" offseason deal

Both PLD and Kuemper are working out for their new teams.

 

[Weezeric]

If Helle doesn’t win the Hart, then no goalie should ever win it.

 

[CanMerc]

If Helle doesn’t win the Hart, then no goalie should ever win it.

It’s only been won by 7 other goalies.

Roy Worters, NYA, 1928-29
Chuck Rayner, NYR, 1949-50
Al Rollins, CHI, 1953-54
Jacques Plante, MTL, 1961-62
Dominik Hasek, BUF, 1996-97
Dominik Hasek, BUF, 1997-98
Jose Theodore, MTL, 2001-02
Carey Price, MTL, 2014-15

I think this season, Helle should definitely be able to duplicate Carey Price’s 2014-15 season, with winning the Vézina, Hart, Ted Lindsey, and William Jennings…and hopefully add one Price never did…the Stanley Cup

 

[Romang67]

If Helle doesn’t win the Hart, then no goalie should ever win it.

No goalie in modern NHL history has won the Hart without all forwards having extremely disappointing seasons with regards to production. Not even Hasek.

Now, the top forwards' productions IS collectively down a fair bit, but I still don't think it's enough to convince the voters.

 

[Skidooboy]

I'm not sold on the Helle kid.. not sure he can be consistent enough.

 

[Victorias]

No goalie in modern NHL history has won the Hart without all forwards having extremely disappointing seasons with regards to production. Not even Hasek.

Now, the top forwards' productions IS collectively down a fair bit, but I still don't think it's enough to convince the voters.

96-97 Mario had 50 goals and 122 pts (13 pt Ross win) while Hasek won the Hart.

The next year Jagr won the Ross by 11 and Hasek repeated.

No forward this year is on the level of Mario or Jagr from those years. Though Helle is not on peak Hasek’s level either.

The advantage Helle has is that the forward votes will be split and the two biggest competitors are limping to the finish line.

 

[Romang67]

96-97 Mario had 50 goals and 122 pts (13 pt Ross win) while Hasek won the Hart.

The next year Jagr won the Ross by 11 and Hasek repeated.

No forward this year is on the level of Mario or Jagr from those years. Though Helle is not on peak Hasek’s level either.

The advantage Helle has is that the forward votes will be split and the two biggest competitors are limping to the finish line.

I've been looking more at the previous season when trying to figure out how the voters would have viewed those seasons by the forwards. Hasek's first season, Lemieux put up 122 pts, but he put up 69 goals and 161 points in 6 fewer games the previous season. Same thing with Jagr, who won the Ross by 11 points, but scored 20 fewer points than Lemieux did the year before, in a year Lemieux didn't win the Hart.

There is a case to be made that this year is similar. Kucherov who will likely win the Art Ross, might finish with few enough points that he would have placed 5th last year. We'll see. I suspect that voters are still in the mindset that a save percentage under .930 isn't that great.

 

[cbcwpg]

Only 7 different goalies have won the Hart, and none of them were on teams that ended up winning the Cup that season. And in history, the Hart was only won 16 times by a player that was on a Cup winning team out of 100. Last time the winner of the Hart also won the Cup, was 2004.

Could just be coincidence, but the Hart seems to generally go to the MVP on a team that just isn't the best.

 

[Buffdog]

Only 7 different goalies have won the Hart, and none of them were on teams that ended up winning the Cup that season. And in history, the Hart was only won 16 times by a player that was on a Cup winning team out of 100. Last time the winner of the Hart also won the Cup, was 2004.

Could just be coincidence, but the Hart seems to generally go to the MVP on a team that just isn't the best.

16% of Hart winners won the cup... that's better odds than the field, I'd imagine, since there are always way more teams that font win than do. Even in Original 6 days, those odds are even

 

[Gm0ney]

96-97 Mario had 50 goals and 122 pts (13 pt Ross win) while Hasek won the Hart.

The next year Jagr won the Ross by 11 and Hasek repeated.

No forward this year is on the level of Mario or Jagr from those years. Though Helle is not on peak Hasek’s level either.

The advantage Helle has is that the forward votes will be split and the two biggest competitors are limping to the finish line.

Take a gander at the Sabres lineup and individual goals and points in the years that Hasek won the Hart. No one's carried a garbage team to the playoffs like he did in both those years. And a .930 back in 96-97? Crazy stuff. No one had seen that kind of SV% since the early 70s.

 

[cbcwpg]

On Thursday, Helly became the seventh goalie in NHL history to record a 45-win season and if he maintains his 1.99 goals-against average, he’d become the second goalie in NHL history to put up 45 wins and a sub-2.00 GAA

 

[Victorias]

I've been looking more at the previous season when trying to figure out how the voters would have viewed those seasons by the forwards. Hasek's first season, Lemieux put up 122 pts, but he put up 69 goals and 161 points in 6 fewer games the previous season. Same thing with Jagr, who won the Ross by 11 points, but scored 20 fewer points than Lemieux did the year before, in a year Lemieux didn't win the Hart.

There is a case to be made that this year is similar. Kucherov who will likely win the Art Ross, might finish with few enough points that he would have placed 5th last year. We'll see. I suspect that voters are still in the mindset that a save percentage under .930 isn't that great.

Yeah, those seasons might have been below expectations for Mario and Jagr because we’re talking about two of the greatest forwards ever. I just wouldn’t say they were extremely disappointing and were certainly more impressive than any forward season from 01-02 (Theodore), 14-15 (Price), or this year.

Few people will acknowledge it, but Helle’s season is actually more impressive than Carey’s:
Price had a .933 S% but league average was .915.
Helle has a .925 S% with league average at .900 (!)

The last time league average S% was this low was 2005-06 when Kipper won the Vezina and finished 3rd in Hart at .923 (with a few more GP).

Meanwhile, GSAx on Moneypuck and Evolving Hockey has Helle above Price by 10+ goals. The narrative is different, however, because of the next point…

Only 7 different goalies have won the Hart, and none of them were on teams that ended up winning the Cup that season. And in history, the Hart was only won 16 times by a player that was on a Cup winning team out of 100. Last time the winner of the Hart also won the Cup, was 2004.

Could just be coincidence, but the Hart seems to generally go to the MVP on a team that just isn't the best.

Goalies have almost exclusively won the Hart for carrying mediocre teams to the playoffs. Plante is the only clear exception.

Helle would be an anomaly in that he turns the Jets from a Wild Card team into a President’s Trophy team. Considering how valuable seeding is this year (and that regular season standings should count for something regardless of playoff seeding), that’s just as impressive to me.

 

[Daximus]

On Thursday, Helly became the seventh goalie in NHL history to record a 45-win season and if he maintains his 1.99 goals-against average, he’d become the second goalie in NHL history to put up 45 wins and a sub-2.00 GAA

Also its likely he finishes the season as the leader in every single goaltending category which has never been done in the history of the league.