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Blue Jays GDT: 2024 v6 | Fri, Sept 13 | vs StL | 7pm ET/4pm PT | TBA vs TBA Ohtanis Makes History

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canucksfan said:
https://x.com/i/web/status/1831154672050028671
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No one disagrees they need to improve but if you look at the history of elite bullpens how many are truely "built" in an offseason?

How many are just a random assortment of people with good stuff that managed to figure it out 1 inning at a time.

It's like a 4th line in hockey you don't spend 9m on it. You find 3 ELCs or min wage
 
tmlms13 said:
No one disagrees they need to improve but if you look at the history of elite bullpens how many are truely "built" in an offseason?

How many are just a random assortment of people with good stuff that managed to figure it out 1 inning at a time.

It's like a 4th line in hockey you don't spend 9m on it. You find 3 ELCs or min wage
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Happens more often than you think tbh. Even just looking at the current field of relief the Phillies signed two former failed starters prior to the 2023 season. Matt Strahm (2/15m) and Jeff Hoffman (minor league contract). Both players are top 10 in relief fWAR this year and have been two of the best relievers over the past two seasons.

Tanner Scott and AJ Puk getting dealt for middling prospects this past deadline, Clase being a throw in for two separate deals before becoming an elite bullpen arm for Cleveland. There’s always an opportunity to grab a rando with good stuff and be the team to unlock that potential.
 
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Eyedea said:
Happens more often than you think tbh. Even just looking at the current field of relief the Phillies signed two former failed starters prior to the 2023 season. Matt Strahm (2/15m) and Jeff Hoffman (minor league contract). Both players are top 10 in relief fWAR this year and have been two of the best relievers over the past two seasons.

Tanner Scott and AJ Puk getting dealt for middling prospects this past deadline, Clase being a throw in for two separate deals before becoming an elite bullpen arm for Cleveland. There’s always an opportunity to grab a rando with good stuff and be the team to unlock that potential.
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Exactly my point. Bullpens aren't "built" in an offseason. You bring 10 potential arms to spring training hope 2 or 3 become shutdown then get 2 more legit ones at the TDL and then you have 4 or 5 guys with sub 3.00 era for a 6789

Some of those 10 have better odds of being a legit shutdown but that's about all you have to "build"

Even Mo Rivera was luck. In the minors and as a rookie he was a starter but sucked so he became a reliever.

I expect Manoah will become a reliever eventually. It will just take some time for him to come to grips with it (knowing his personality). And I doubt it will be with Toronto.
 
I'd say you want to sign/trade for one proven big arm for the back end of the bullpen because I don't really trust Romano or a 34 y/o Chad Green going forward ... but yeah, you want to bring in a volume of interesting guys and see what shakes out. You don't pay huge $ for 4 different relievers because that will inevitably be money poorly spent and blow up in your face.
 
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tmlms13 said:
No one disagrees they need to improve but if you look at the history of elite bullpens how many are truely "built" in an offseason?

How many are just a random assortment of people with good stuff that managed to figure it out 1 inning at a time.

It's like a 4th line in hockey you don't spend 9m on it. You find 3 ELCs or min wage
Click to expand...

Yeah, this is the issue with pens, obviously and is usually why people say that relievers are voodoo. Obviously the Jays can try and stack the deck by signing some talented relief pitchers but that's no guarantee. Romano is supposed to be elite and he was awful and now he's hurt. Swanson was supposed to be a proven track record guy and he's been terrible most of the season after being very good last season.

The other thing is that the market for pen arms is weird because teams will absolutely pay through the nose for closers because save totals make big bucks, but you can probably get 2 or 3 statistically comparable pitchers for what you'd pay for a single guy with closer experience.

What's probably the best option for the Jays is to go and get some undervalued middle/late relief guys with high leverage experience who aren't name-brand closers, get a handful of guys who have good histories but are coming back form injuries or down years who are like lottery tickets, throw all the pitchers in the system that are below the likes of Tiedmann, Berreira, the guys they just drafted (I'm talking the likes of Jeunger, Danner, Cooke, Santos, Dallas, etc) and just let them duke it out. have as many guys as you can bring into spring training and just do a Thunderdome setup where the best survive and the others are reassigned to the minors or released from their tryouts or whatever. Because the only "sure" way to find good pen arms is to just give yourself as many chances as possible.
 
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Buck's whole "the point of the game is to win" rant entirely disregards the massive disconnect between the merit of the team winning and the arbitrary and inconsistent way in which those wins can be assigned to particular pitchers while also not necessarily representing a true evaluation of said pitcher's performance.

I can't believe it's 2024 and someone hasn't explained this to him. It's not that hard.
 
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Barker said it pretty on point on Jays Talk, something to the effect of "the jays don't look that great vs good teams".
 
tmlms13 said:
Exactly my point. Bullpens aren't "built" in an offseason. You bring 10 potential arms to spring training hope 2 or 3 become shutdown then get 2 more legit ones at the TDL and then you have 4 or 5 guys with sub 3.00 era for a 6789

Some of those 10 have better odds of being a legit shutdown but that's about all you have to "build"

Even Mo Rivera was luck. In the minors and as a rookie he was a starter but sucked so he became a reliever.

I expect Manoah will become a reliever eventually. It will just take some time for him to come to grips with it (knowing his personality). And I doubt it will be with Toronto.
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To be fair the Phillies really did build their bullpen last year in an offseason.

Hoffman, Kimbrel, Soto, Strahm, Covey (claimed in May), Vasquez. Only Alvarado and Dominguez were already on the team.

This year they reshuffled with midseason acquisitions and Kerkering basically took Kimbrel’s spot. But yeah, every year you can expect new faces in the pen regardless of how dominant it was the year prior.

I don’t really see Manoah in the pen. If anything I see him scrapping his change up for a splitter. But the FB/SI/SL mix is still starting quality.
 
Eyedea said:
Wow, someone must’ve had to feed him that type of hard hitting analysis.
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No, I think it was in response to the Jays decent play in August, where they played against some teams that were even worse than them and looked pretty good.
 
MK78 said:
No, I think it was in response to the Jays decent play in August, where they played against some teams that were even worse than them and looked pretty good.
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And in this 1-5 stretch they’re still a +8 RD. The team is in full on tryout mode with half the lineup being rookies and the worst bullpen in the league. They’re obviously not built to compete.
 
Eyedea said:
And in this 1-5 stretch they’re still a +8 RD. The team is in full on tryout mode with half the lineup being rookies and the worst bullpen in the league. They’re obviously not built to compete.
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The 15-0 win helps that RD, of course. I think that we should be encouraged by what we have been seeing from the young/inexperienced players. Bodes well for 2025.
 
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Suntouchable13 said:
The 15-0 win helps that RD, of course. I think that we should be encouraged by what we have been seeing from the young/inexperienced players. Bodes well for 2025.
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That's kind of been their thing since the deadline. They're 16-16 since Aug 1, but they have a +25 differential. They've lost a lot of close games (including to the good teams they've played) and won a bunch of lopsided ones.

I agree it bodes well for next year. They have a few obvious holes that need fixing, but the young guys are proven that they have some solid depth available already.
 
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Not cheapie HR either... 420 feet and then 421.

He has much more power than I expected from his minor league results.
 
Horwitz and Wagner are 100% locks to be starters next year

Clement is also a lock

Luperfido showing promise

Please don’t sign and old ass f***s again like Volgobech Turner IKF Kk etc. Play the kids. More way fun to watch.
 
MK78 said:
Yeah and hit another ball nearly out.

I hope he can continue this next year.
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I think what he's doing is a lot more sustainable than what Schneider did last year. He's probably a big-side platoon guy, but he doesn't have an obvious weakness against righties. He just destroys them.
 
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