Blue Jays GDT: 2024 v5 | Wed, Aug 7 | vs Bal | 7pm ET/4pm PT | Kremer vs Gausman
- Thread starter The Nemesis
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Tw1ster
Registered User
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
Stay hot, Vladdy. Video game numbers since the start of July
LaP
Registered User
He started playing well at the beginning of may when the team was still 100% in the race. He was not hitting homeruns in may but he was getting on the base. He was hitting 2nd and Springer was awful so he pretty much never had guys on base so his job was to get on base which he did in may.
His tats in may were :
.357 avg .916 OPS 2 HR and 14 RBI
His stats in june were :
.318 avg .961 OPS 8HR and 25 RBI
It's amazing how similar Varsho and Davis Schneider are at bat. Both low averages, have some power when they connect, better mid/low ball hitters, and both hugely swing and a miss at high heat and outside pitches. They cant let off wildly swinging at those high/outside pitches.
When Davis Schneider whiffs at an outside slider, he misses hitting the ball by probably a foot.
When Davis Schneider whiffs at an outside slider, he misses hitting the ball by probably a foot.
Career 4.1 era pitcher. Take away a few terribly bad seasons, and his career era still high 3s. How and why Jays want to pay a guy $20M/yr for that who knows.
Even worse is Kikuchi. $36M over 3 years. Career era almost 5 and his best year ever was last year scraping by with an era just below 4. His era on Jays probably avg out to 4.5. And Jays paid him $12M/yr and Seattle paid him about $15M/yr.
Baseball Ref says in 6 years, he's made $79M with an MLB career era of 4.7.
Seattle smoking major drugs, and shipped some to Shapiro and Atkins.
Jays are in an extremely difficult position especially considering this division. Even the best GM would have problems addressing the issues here. Its unpopular, but a rebuild is the realistic option currently.
Vladdy needs to start in big league parks, he can only hit in minor league parks.
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
Berrios has never had elite stuff and if it falls off even just a bit like this season, it's not pretty.
Actually, more than a bit this season, but you get it
Actually, more than a bit this season, but you get it
Gausman Berrios and Bassitt all suck. Next year we’re gonna be even worse. Must rebuild from scratch. Trade Vladdy in offseason get a huge haul and go from there
Mediocre/bad pitchers getting paid a good sum of money is nothing new. Jordan Lyles made over 50 million dollars in his career to be the baseball version of a punching bag;
Some would argue a career ERA of 5.22 and ERA+ of 82 isn't worth 50 million in career earnings, but sometimes it's worth it to have a guy who can just go out there and take it on the chin.
If you are an honest to god rotation level pitcher, you'll get good money for it. Not as much as say, like Gerrit Cole, but still a handsome sum.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
So if an ERA of just below 4 is "just scraping by" I have to ask:
How many pitchers in baseball do you think had an ERA of less than 4 last season? Let's say that we're just talking starters and to only account for ones that got regular, season-long work that they had to reach at least 150 IP (which should equate to like 25-30 starts)
A pitcher who can reliably throw 190 innings with an ERA of 4.00 is outstanding in today’s MLB. Durability is worth it’s weight in gold.
One of the craziest things about the last two years is that Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt/Kikuchi have basically not missed a start. It should have been a formula for terrific success if the hitters would have produced expected results.
One of the craziest things about the last two years is that Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt/Kikuchi have basically not missed a start. It should have been a formula for terrific success if the hitters would have produced expected results.
Good challenge questions for this poster, but you piqued my curiosity. It made me look.
So I’ll ask this poster, what’s your over under pick on starters last year who even hit the 150 innings pitched mark?
I’ll set the line at 75.5.
(30 teams, five starters per team)
Hint: Jays had four starters hit this threshold.
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
This won't answer my original question but there was a research piece done about 10 years ago on a Pirates blog that figured out what the average ERA was for each spot in the rotation by sorting each team into its best/most used 5 starters into hypothetical rotation spots and then averaging each spot's results.
I don't have the #s in front of me but it was something like as follows (with the AL generally being about 10-12 points higher than the average and the NL being the same amount below, likely owing to the fact that this was still before the universal DH)
#1: Low 3s (I want to say the league # was like 3.1X and the NL one just barely edged down to like 2.97 or 2.98)
#2: mid/high 3s
#3: low/mid 4s
#4: mid/high 4s
#5: mid/high 5s
And according to baseball-reference the league-wide ERA for all pitchers is in pretty much the same place as it was a decade ago, with a bit of a detour from like 2016-2020 where offense spiked.
2010: 4.38
2016: 4.48
2020: 4.65
2024: 4.42
So while that rotation research is quite old, the numbers of right now should not be terribly different from what they were then.
#2: mid/high 3s
#3: low/mid 4s
#4: mid/high 4s
#5: mid/high 5s
And according to baseball-reference the league-wide ERA for all pitchers is in pretty much the same place as it was a decade ago, with a bit of a detour from like 2016-2020 where offense spiked.
2010: 4.38
2016: 4.48
2020: 4.65
2024: 4.42
So while that rotation research is quite old, the numbers of right now should not be terribly different from what they were then.
EDIT: And to answer your challenge question (even if it wasn't meant for me)
I think the number is less than you'd expect. 75 would mean an average of 2 starters per team hitting the mark. That seems reasonable at first blush but I'm going to take the under and say....
53.
So now I look and the answer: Fangraphs tells me it's 58. So I was close but a little too aggressive in marking them down.
In light of this, I looked at adjusting my IP numbers on the ERA question. I believe at 150 IP the number was something like 35 guys who were below 4.00.
So if I set the threshold to just 100 IP and SP only the answer is 53 starters below 4.00 ERA out of 117 starters in total that reached that IP count
53.
So now I look and the answer: Fangraphs tells me it's 58. So I was close but a little too aggressive in marking them down.
In light of this, I looked at adjusting my IP numbers on the ERA question. I believe at 150 IP the number was something like 35 guys who were below 4.00.
So if I set the threshold to just 100 IP and SP only the answer is 53 starters below 4.00 ERA out of 117 starters in total that reached that IP count
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Those #1 starter numbers seem crazy now, finding performance AND durability is the unicorn.
How long ago was it that a team would have 3 guys around 200ip? Maybe my recollection is skewed by the really good Jays teams of the 90’s because some of those teams were stacked.
I think you pointed it out well that the Jays starters weren’t really the problem, and the mudslinging is reactionary against unrealistic expectations.
As it stands now, even in a disappointing season, the team will end up with 3 guys who are very durable and reliable and have done their part to give the team a chance.
As for you guys replying to my post earlier today, baseball ref says the league ERA is 4.09 this year as I type. Relievers and and closers skew to a slightly better ERA as I did a MLB.com stats check. Starters are 4.17 ERA and relievers have 4.00 ERA. I had to export the data as some reason they dont have overall grand totals. lol
The Jays paying a ton of money for starter with ERAs over 4 is a waste of money. It doesn't matter how many innings they pitch because a bad ERA is a bad ERA. All that means is someone pitching tons of innings are giving up tons of runs, which also means the bats have to be driving in tons of runs to win.
Jays starters and relievers have been bad all season being one of the worst in the league. Team ERA is near the bottom.
Paying a lot of salary for any pitcher who cant pitch is dumb. The top 4 Jays starters all get $12M - $20M each. Kikuchi was cheapest at $12M, and I think Gausman, Bassitt and Berrios all get $20M each. Bassitt and Berrios are in the low 4s, and Gausman and YK are in the mid/high 4s.
So the Jays are basically paying $77M for 4 starters with a collective ERA at 4.37 (I did the math) where the league avg for starter is 4.17 ERA. And Berrios in the case, since I started off this discussion is at 4.11. So Jays are paying $20M for an avg league pitcher which is insane.
Quality starts at 3ER in 6 innings = 4.50 being a quality start is a lousy metric, since it means having a 4.50 is somehow good which it isnt. You can tell its bad because a 4.50 ERA in terms of team pitching is 25th in the league (Arizona), and the overall ERA in the league is 4.09.
The Jays paying a ton of money for starter with ERAs over 4 is a waste of money. It doesn't matter how many innings they pitch because a bad ERA is a bad ERA. All that means is someone pitching tons of innings are giving up tons of runs, which also means the bats have to be driving in tons of runs to win.
Jays starters and relievers have been bad all season being one of the worst in the league. Team ERA is near the bottom.
Paying a lot of salary for any pitcher who cant pitch is dumb. The top 4 Jays starters all get $12M - $20M each. Kikuchi was cheapest at $12M, and I think Gausman, Bassitt and Berrios all get $20M each. Bassitt and Berrios are in the low 4s, and Gausman and YK are in the mid/high 4s.
So the Jays are basically paying $77M for 4 starters with a collective ERA at 4.37 (I did the math) where the league avg for starter is 4.17 ERA. And Berrios in the case, since I started off this discussion is at 4.11. So Jays are paying $20M for an avg league pitcher which is insane.
Quality starts at 3ER in 6 innings = 4.50 being a quality start is a lousy metric, since it means having a 4.50 is somehow good which it isnt. You can tell its bad because a 4.50 ERA in terms of team pitching is 25th in the league (Arizona), and the overall ERA in the league is 4.09.
It absolutely matters if a pitcher can throw a lot of innings because teams only have so many pitchers.
A pitcher who can throw 6+ innings per start with a ~4 ERA means you don't have to overwork the bullpen and turn to your mop-up guys for important innings. And if that pitcher can start 30+ games a year, it means you don't have to turn to your depth starters and minor leaguers (who would likely have a much worse ERA) to fill those holes.
The funny thing is Kikuchi needed up being a disaster in year one and then provided excellent value for two years: a lot of innings with a 3.86 ERA in year two, and than a huge trade return in year three.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
Vladdy post-haircut is a different animal. Almost identical stats with Judge. T-1st in HRs with 15, 238 wRC+ (2nd by just 1) 1.244 OPS (1st by .010 points).
He’s also 4th amongst qualified hitters in the batting title race. Would be 1st in the NL but Witt and Kwan are going absolutely mental in the AL.
He’s also 4th amongst qualified hitters in the batting title race. Would be 1st in the NL but Witt and Kwan are going absolutely mental in the AL.
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