Rumor: 2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Thread: Post Deadline

[henchman21]

Maybe the Avs were the difficult ones in this case when considering Mikko got the same term as Marner but for 1.6M less. To me it indicates he did not get paid like you suggest.

He pushed it as far as he could without jeopardizing his regular season. The point is he’s willing to make push it. IMO people are setting themselves up for disappointment thinking he’ll be less than MacK. If he is, it will be just barely.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Nichushkin ($6.125m) - MacKinnon ($12.6m) - Rantanen ($9.25m)
Landeskog ($7m) - Mittelstadt (RFA) - Lehkonen ($4.5m)
Wood ($2.5m) - Colton ($4m) - O'Connor ($1.05m)
Kovalenko ($900k) - Wagner ($775k) - ?1
?2/?3

Toews ($7.25m) - Makar ($9m)
Girard ($5m) - Manson ($4.5m)
?4 - ?5
?6

Georgiev ($3.4m)
Annunen ($840k)

--

That's a $78.7m team without including Mittelstadt's ~$6.5m and filling out 5-6 additional spots which includes an entire third pairing of defense.

Internal/signed options for ?1/?2/?3 = Foudy($850k), Ivan($850k), Pavel($870k), Ritchie(not signed yet)

Internal/signed options for ?4/?5/?6 = Behrens($905k), Malinski($850k)

Assume Mitts at $6.5m and $900k each for the open spots, you're looking at a $91m team.

It... doesn't... work.

Would you ever consider promoting Annunen, dumping Georgiev for cap space and just committing to the fact that you'll have to pick up a goalie at the deadline regardless of how Justus is doing unless somehow by then we are comfortable with Justus/Ivan/Ian.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

He pushed it as far as he could without jeopardizing his regular season. The point is he’s willing to make push it. IMO people are setting themselves up for disappointment thinking he’ll be less than MacK. If he is, it will be just barely.

I do agree that this time around it might be a difficult negotiation because of what Mack is being paid.

However in his last contract negotiations wouldn't you have pushed as hard as him if you were being offered 1.6M than a comparable with worst term? I don't think that is being difficult. IMO he just wanted something more fair than what the Avs were offering.

 

[henchman21]

I do agree that this time around it might be a difficult negotiation because of what Mack is being paid.

However in his last contract negotiations wouldn't you have pushed as hard as him if you were being offered 1.6M than a comparable with worst term? I don't think that is being difficult. IMO he just wanted something more fair than what the Avs were offering.

I don’t blame him a bit for pushing. It’s the business. Finite amount of time to get paid. It’s just clear he wanted paid, and that’s fine. He’ll want it this go round too.

 

[Foppa2118]

It's pretty f***ing unfair to paint Rantanen as this difficult person to negotiate with, when it really was a bunch of these big-name RFAs (Tkachuck, Laine, Point, Rantanen, Marner) who were all up during that offseason, and ALL OF THEM took until just the training camp to sign. Marner signed first, and the rest followed within a week. It was a waiting game to see who sets the market. And Rantanen wasn't even the last person to sign, and he signed for less than Marner, while having a better case than him.

Byram was supposed to "difficult to negotiate with" too. That was a narrative pushed for a long time with nothing to support it. Then he signed the first day he was able to on July 1st to a reasonable bridge deal.

I don't see Mikko needing top dollar, or more than Nate, to re-sign with the Avs. He'll want to get paid for sure, but I have a feeling he would accept Nate's $12.6M. Maybe even a bit less.

Mikko will be a year older than Nate in the first year of his next deal too, so term comes into play here too. The same AAV and term as Nate's deal, will be a better deal for Mikko than Nate, because it pays him his highest salary until 36 instead of 35.

My guess is he gets the same deal. Similar to Kane and Toews signing for the same deal. And if they're open about it, it might not be that difficult a negotiation. Avs say we don't want to go above Nate's AAV, Mikko says ok then give me Nate's deal, Avs say ok becasue they know it'll end up there anyway.

Not that the Avs would force a hard MacK cap, and not go above it, but it lets them posture like they don't want to go above it, to save a few much needed bucks.

I don't think anyone would argue that as good as Mikko is, he should be the highest paid player in the NHL. Getting what would have been the highest AAV in the NHL at $12.6M, the season after Matthews took the lead at $13.5M, seems like a fair compromise. Matthews deal is only 5 years too.

 

[cinchronicity]

I truly hate myself for agreeing with Bettman on anything, but he felt that a hard cap would lead to parity, which would eventually lead to more money in the owner's pockets / better worldview when charging new owners a $1B entry fee. The general idea being that no team would be able to stockpile talent (LTIR notwithstanding.) In other words, Bettman anticipated a league where Top 10 players leaguewide might still be traded and a league where no team could gather 3 superstars without mortally wounding depth. The Avs are actually lucky in that several players are outplaying their salary slots: Nuke, Lehky, LOC, Drouin and arguments could be made for Mack and Makar and potentially even JMFJ. Even with all that free talent, the Avs will be $4M over the cap next year (without any LTIR) and at least $7M over the cap in 25/26.

So we all argue about the hockey version of Sophie's Choice while Bettman giggles in the shadows and even crap owners turn a profit.

I love Mikko and while I am amongst the most fervent of the Trade Mikko contingent, I still frequently have mentioned his status as an underrated passer. That said, Bettman has built a cap system in which the Avs do not win another cup after this year if Mikko is on the roster. Just look at the Winnipeg series: Trenin, Colton, Wood and Parise have all played important roles in bottom 6 slots. Now replace them with Bellemare, Liam O'Brien and MacDermid. Ouch!

TL;DR? Blame Bettman for this mess if you need to, but I don't see a team with 3 superstars' salary winning a cup anytime soon.

 

[Foppa2118]

Colton. Next.

Seems really unlikely they move Colton after signing him to 4 years though. And they've been looking for a 3C longer than a 2C.

Other reasons it seems unlikely to me are he gives them some Ritchie insurance on the third line if Ritchie plays there his rookie year, and he has good chemistry with Wood who they also signed long term. And if they manage to keep LOC, that line could be kept to their depth going forward.

Takes them down to Rantanen or gutting the defense if they can't move Colton or Wood for fear of being the Golden Knights. Wood is completely replaceable immediately. Colton playing behind MacK and Mittelstadt is replaceable internally. Lehkonen is an option, but I don't see it.

Wood seems unlikely as well IMO, because they clearly have him in their long term plans. Also wouldn't really save that much if any money, because they'd have to replace him with another big body that can hang on the 3rd line, and that's unlikely to be a $1-2M guy.

I really think the most likely guys to move in order are Manson, Lehky, or out of left field Girard. They cut the most money, have been here a bit, and they didn't just sign them.

Lehky would really suck to lose, I hope it's not him. I like Manson too, but he could be easier to replace with a cheaper/younger big physical D man, that maybe hasn't fully proven himself yet to the team he's on. Maybe even a playoff team and for Manson as he's more proven. Another potential pro scouting opportunity for the Avs.

 

[Mighty Makar]

I think LOC is gone after next season.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think LOC is gone after next season.

Certainly a good bet, if they only make one move to barely get under the cap. Just like Drouin.

But there are some out of left field scenarios, where they move a couple big salaries, that could allow them to keep both LOC and Drouin.

 

[Mighty Makar]

I know it won’t happen, but I hope Rantanen is traded.

 

[Foppa2118]

Nichushkin ($6.125m) - MacKinnon ($12.6m) - Rantanen ($9.25m)
Landeskog ($7m) - Mittelstadt (RFA) - Lehkonen ($4.5m)
Wood ($2.5m) - Colton ($4m) - O'Connor ($1.05m)
Kovalenko ($900k) - Wagner ($775k) - ?1
?2/?3

Toews ($7.25m) - Makar ($9m)
Girard ($5m) - Manson ($4.5m)
?4 - ?5
?6

Georgiev ($3.4m)
Annunen ($840k)

--

That's a $78.7m team without including Mittelstadt's ~$6.5m and filling out 5-6 additional spots which includes an entire third pairing of defense.

Internal/signed options for ?1/?2/?3 = Foudy($850k), Ivan($850k), Pavel($870k), Ritchie(not signed yet)

Internal/signed options for ?4/?5/?6 = Behrens($905k), Malinski($850k)

Assume Mitts at $6.5m and $900k each for the open spots, you're looking at a $91m team.

It... doesn't... work.

This is what I think it will end up being as well, with Manson replaced, Kiviranta and Malinksi added, and either JJ or a cheap UFA/trade for another big bodied physical D like JJ.

And I still think there's a decent chance they do a 2-3 year deal with Mitts instead of long term, and let him walk to UFA, to keep the AAV around $5.75-6M to save the extra bit they'll need.

Malinksi doesn't need to PK to be on the roster. They'll just continue to use Toews, Makar, Manson replacement, and Girard if need be, or target a UFA/trade candidate for JJ's spot that can PK.

I've been underwhelmed by Walker so far after his first few games. I'm not sure he'll be worth the price, unless they move Girard and get Walker for cheaper. Then move Manson for a cheaper LD. Which would be pretty out of left field to move all those D men, but I don't think it's out of the question.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I don’t blame him a bit for pushing. It’s the business. Finite amount of time to get paid. It’s just clear he wanted paid, and that’s fine. He’ll want it this go round too.

But again, you make it sound like he hold back to get what was due to him. He clearly didn't as he got 1.6M less than Marner for the same term. IMO he hold back because the Avs were the ones playing hard ball offering an even worst contract than what he signed. He arguably had a better case than Marner. You disagree on that and that's fine but IMO the only thing Marner had on him was better defensive numbers. Again IMO the Avs playing hard ball is why he was the last one to sign in the group of RFAs that year, not him trying to get "paid".

 

[henchman21]

But again, you make it sound like he hold back to get what was due to him. He clearly didn't as he got 1.6M less than Marner for the same term. IMO he hold back because the Avs were the ones playing hard ball offering an even worst contract than what he signed. He arguably had a better case than Marner. You disagree on that and that's fine but IMO the only thing Marner had on him was better defensive numbers. Again IMO the Avs playing hard ball is why he was the last one to sign in the group of RFAs that year, not him trying to get "paid".

The Avs didn’t play any harder than anybody else sans Toronto (many of those guys got forced into bridges and Rants did not). Rants held out as long as he could without going into the regular season. People can term it how they see it, but he went just short of Nylander/Kucherov. Along with that, the Avs have always been reasonable in contracts with the lone exception for ROR and that management is gone. No other RFA has had this issue. MacK and Toews even got paid way prior to their deals expiring. Nothing shows the Avs as unreasonable. They certainly should take some blame and they had numbers they wanted to hit. Just to take all away from Rants and put it on the Avs in this seems misguided. He wanted paid and got paid… not as much as he wanted, but to get more he’d have had to pull a Nylander.

 

[UncleRisto]

A valid option. Not the one I think they’ll take, but that would get it done.

Yeah, no I don't think so either.

In fact, it would be better to move Manson, primarily, and move around other pieces to fill out the defense.

 

[ABasin]

TL;DR? Blame Bettman for this mess if you need to, but I don't see a team with 3 superstars' salary winning a cup anytime soon.

Interesting take. What would you consider to be a superstar's salary? $9M+?

 

[henchman21]

Interesting take. What would you consider to be a superstar's salary? $9M+?

We will see how it all plays out over time, but iirc Eichel was the first 10+m cap hit to win a cup.

 

[dahrougem2]

Walker is 29, RHD and UFA. I bet he gets at minimum 5x4, if not closer to 5x4.5. He will cost the same or more than Manson. Just let him walk.

 

[henchman21]

Walker is 29, RHD and UFA. I bet he gets at minimum 5x4, if not closer to 5x4.5. He will cost the same or more than Manson. Just let him walk.

Unless you go to 7 or 8 years, yup. Which I don’t think I’d want that term.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

The Avs didn’t play any harder than anybody else sans Toronto (many of those guys got forced into bridges and Rants did not). Rants held out as long as he could without going into the regular season. People can term it how they see it, but he went just short of Nylander/Kucherov. Along with that, the Avs have always been reasonable in contracts with the lone exception for ROR and that management is gone. No other RFA has had this issue. MacK and Toews even got paid way prior to their deals expiring. Nothing shows the Avs as unreasonable. They certainly should take some blame and they had numbers they wanted to hit. Just to take all away from Rants and put it on the Avs in this seems misguided. He wanted paid and got paid… not as much as he wanted, but to get more he’d have had to pull a Nylander.

Negotiations are mostly about win-win and not just get the last dollar. Trying to screw your star players never works out.

 

[Zandar]

If moving on from Lehkonen closes our window then this core isn’t that great.

Lehkonen is awesome. A perfect compliment to the core of this team, but that’s like saying moving on from Palat would’ve closed Tampas window.

A trade we would regret. Let’s not let history repeat itself…

 

[Mighty Makar]

The Drury trade made me very mad.

 

[cinchronicity]

Interesting take. What would you consider to be a superstar's salary? $9M+?

This is by no means a statistical model. I used $9M as the cutoff, in order to include both Makar and Mikko. That said, there are currently 4 teams with 3 or more players above $9M. (2024 NHL Salary Rankings)

Tampa - 3
Florida - 3
Avs - 3
Toronto - 4

This year, Tampa has already been eliminated. Toronto needs to win on the road to stay in. The Avs and Panthers had reasonably easy series' ( Florida winning 4-1 vs Tampa, meaning Tampa is going in the wrong direction.) Other teams which had an easy job (#of listed players): Rangers (2), Carolina (1), Oilers (2* (Drai is just outside and - like Mikko - due for a large raise after next season))

So 28 teams, including 12 playoff teams, have 2 or less players in the stratosphere. Carolina, with 1, is the aggregate betting favorite ( Stanley Cup Odds & Favorites: Updated 2024 NHL Finals Betting Lines)

Even if the Avs get Mikko to keep AAV down by adding an 8th year, that means the Avs will have to allocate $2.25M more cap in 2026 and beyond, just for Mikko. That does not consider increases for LOC or Drouin, or any improvement in goal. It also turns Duhaime, Trenin, Cogs, Wagner into ELC / League Minimum, and risks not having enough money to sign arbitration eligible Mittelstadt.

The Avs have a tough road to the cup this year. I see no way it gets any easier with raises for Toews and Mikko.

 

[BobRossColton]

The simplest solution, win the cup once more then just sell high on two time Stanley Cup winner mikko rantanen





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[Andrew Wiggin]

Interesting watching a still effective OReilly and Duchene, how this offseason could have gone if both sides were more ameniable to a reunion. Those 2 would have been much better adds than RyJo and Tatar. I think it ended up ok with the deadline but both of those guys would have made the top six options more solid.

 

[henchman21]

The simplest solution, win the cup once more then just sell high on two time Stanley Cup winner mikko rantanen





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You know this is like saying Candyman 3 times.