WJC: 2024 Team Latvia

[Namejs]

In short, we have a pretty solid group of players this time around, very much like last year. Well, at least for Latvian standards.

I expect us to have a fighting chance against Germany who don't seem to have any really outstanding players at all. Maybe other than Kechter. And not spectacular depth either.

The goal should be to make the quarters.

Overall, I'm quite confident in our scoring ability, of our top 6 forwards and top 3-4 Ds.
Our D depth and our goalies are a bit of a question mark, although Feldbergs (G) did look very solid against the Polish/Estonian/Lithuanian senior national teams a few days ago, where our U20 B team managed to beat Lithuania and Estonia men's teams which I guess highlights the massive difference in skill level between the different world hockey tiers. Also, Vutkevics and Stradnieks pretty much made the roster during those 3 games.

Locmelis was the cinderella story within the cinderella story during our bronze run and he will be leading this team.
And that top line should be able to generate some good looks against every team in this tournament.

Since we do not have much depth, I would prefer to be a little daring and invite some of the leading U18 kids. And, yes, I am itching to see how one of the most promising Latvian prospects in recent history Olivers Murnieks ('08) would fare against this kind of opposition. You will be hearing his name a lot from me going forward, by the way.
Bruno Osmanis also made his debut at Allsvenskan at the ripe age of 16 earlier this season and I cannot see how any of our other alternatives for the 13F spot would be better. Even if we're being pragmatic and not giving any extra credit for their ceiling.

Will Abols actually invite the two to the camp? Probably not.

Anyhow, my take:
Vilmanis - Locmelis - Mateiko
Vutkevics - Bukarts - Veckaktins
Darzins - Rullers - Stradnieks
Ansons - Murnieks - Ozollapa
Cabulis, Osmanis

Fenenko - Bulans
Uljanskis - Laskovs
Kurbaka - Retenais

Feldbergs
Ozols
Rolovs

Click to read more...

 

[THE JAM]

Southern Estonia has made us proud recently (Bronze that felt like Gold), keep it up!

 

[Namejs]

In my late night ramblings I forgot about Davis Borozinskis who should be in that 2LW slot in Vutkevics place, he' having a pretty good season in the USHL.

 

[Czechboy]

How many drafted or potentially drafted players?

That is definitely a killer group.

 

[Namejs]

How many drafted or potentially drafted players?

That is definitely a killer group.

View attachment 769862

2 draftees, 2 potential draftees in 2024 and depending on roster selection up to 2 in 2025.

 

[Namejs]

It looks like all of the leading NA-based players are joining the team, 15 total.

There's not a whole lot of issues to sort out in terms of roster selection, but I am still waiting for a word on some of the '06, '07 and '08 kids.

 

[Vikz]

There's not a whole lot of issues to sort out in terms of roster selection, but I am still waiting for a word on some of the '06, '07 and '08 kids.

Mūrnieks just got called to a 3x3 U16 camp from 11th to 15th december, which probably means he will not be invited to the U20 camp.
Regardless of his readiness for the U20 team, not sure what the point of attenting the 3x3 U16 camp is. He has obviously outgrown his peers, and even more, given that 3x3 is an inferior version of the sport, not sure this camp will even be attented by the best players in this age group. Not to mention that there is no indication they will even play any games.
So, instead of fighting for a chance to play against best young players in the world, he will be training with B-tier Latvian prospects in a weird hockey variation.

 

[Namejs]

Mūrnieks just got called to a 3x3 U16 camp from 11th to 15th december, which probably means he will not be invited to the U20 camp.
Regardless of his readiness for the U20 team, not sure what the point of attenting the 3x3 U16 camp is. He has obviously outgrown his peers, and even more, given that 3x3 is an inferior version of the sport, not sure this camp will even be attented by the best players in this age group. Not to mention that there is no indication they will even play any games.
So, instead of fighting for a chance to play against best young players in the world, he will be training with B-tier Latvian prospects in a weird hockey variation.

The camp is in-between Latvian league games, so it's not like he's missing out on anything in terms of development. He will get to work with Darzins and Sprukts and I'm sure they're aware of who Murnieks is as well. And the kid himself probably just wants to go to Korea.

But it sure is disappointing that he will likely not be competing this year.

In any case, I would not blow this out of proportion. His main event this year is the U18 WJC. He has to showcase himself and get a contract abroad. Sweden or Canada (just no the Q) preferably.

 

[Eye of Ra]

And the kid himself probably just wants to go to Korea.

Korea??

 

[Namejs]

Korea??

That's where the 3x3 tournament takes place in January

 

[Namejs]

Murnieks has been included in the U18 camp in December, so no worries about him being left out.

 

[Jakub97]

To all Latvians: Would not making it to the quarter-finals be disappointing for you? What are your overall expectations?


Wish you good luck this year!

 

[Namejs]

To all Latvians: Would not making it to the quarter-finals be disappointing for you? What are your overall expectations?


Wish you good luck this year!

It would be disappointing, sure.

But the expectations are to remain in the WJC next year and everything else is just a bonus.

 

[Jakub97]

It would be disappointing, sure.

But the expectations are to remain in the WJC next year and everything else is just a bonus.

I believe you will have a slightly better team than the Germans! As long as you get all the players available.

 

[Namejs]

Team Latvia will hold 2 exhibition games and will cut the last 3 players after that.

The final list of 25 players was published and there were no major surprises there.
What did seem a little peculiar to me is the abundance of NAHL players invited to the camp. NAHL is in no way a more competitive league than the Latvian domestic league. And I have done actual statistical analysis on this, so I can back this up with data if needed.

So some of the names included are questionable. It's not immediately clear to me what a guy like Polakovs can bring to this team. He neither possesses elite skill, nor he has the physical attributes for a shutdown role of any sort. There are a couple of other guys like that.

Once again, I cannot see valid reasoning for not including some of the leading U18 prospects instead. who are actually producing at a higher rate than some of the 04's.

But, in any case, this probably won't change anything substantially, as we're likely talking about 4th-liners or the 13th forward.

 

[kutka]

namejs, is there something that separates latvia and slovakia? + give me examples of latvian underrated players wich are undrafted and have better pruduction than overrated drafted slovaks + give me your statistical analysis of how latvian league nis more competetive than NAHL

 

[Vikz]

namejs, is there something that separates latvia and slovakia? + give me examples of latvian underrated players wich are undrafted and have better pruduction than overrated drafted slovaks + give me your statistical analysis of how latvian league nis more competetive than NAHL

I have no idea what is this "Namejs vs the Slovaks" conflict I already heard a few times about, but its pretty hilarious. Especially when it was enough to triger you to a forth message in a years time.

 

[Namejs]

namejs, is there something that separates latvia and slovakia? + give me examples of latvian underrated players wich are undrafted and have better pruduction than overrated drafted slovaks + give me your statistical analysis of how latvian league nis more competetive than NAHL

You asked for it.

Slovakia has more players, more rinks, a better domestic league and a deeper prospect pool with more elite (NHL-tier) talent. That is the difference.

The issue here is that in the Slovak eyes, that difference is huge or at least big, while in reality it's not. This doesn't bother me, but what bothers me is that in a roundabout way it affects the chances of Latvian prospects making it in the NHL.

Slovakia had its golden age a while back, and this has somehow made everyone in Slovakia consider themselves to still be a leading hockey nation. That same golden age has created an image of Slovaks being an elite hockey nation in North America, which introduces one type of bias into NHL draft selections. Your branding is better.

If you had a Romanian player in, say, WHL with the same number of points, age, physical characteristics, skating, etc., as a Slovakian prospect, he would not be selected, while the Slovak kid might get drafted in the last couple of rounds of the NHL draft.

Half of the Slovak team was drafted, but if you look into the actual rate of production of, say, their drafted forwards, it's not as rosy as it sounds.

Why was Adam Zlnka drafted?
Davis Borozinskis has the exact same player profile and rate of production in USHL, but he never even made the NHL draft rankings, yet they're pretty much the same calibre dudes.

Why was Niks Fenenko never drafted?

Every year there's 1 or 2 players like that who simply get snubbed at the NHL draft. Even here on hfboards I see Latvian prospects being named as coming from an exotic hockey market. There's top prospects, 15, 16 year olds who are not getting the attention they deserve because of this systemic bias.

The reason for this systemic bias is that the Slovak teams are deeper and capable of standing their own and scoring more goals at the U18 WJC and the U20 WJC. From time to time they even go on a deeper play-off run and then it's all hands on deck. Let's draft them all! Their stats look better and it creates the impression of them being better players than they are. The hype is real.

Which is why playing at the WJC vs. Canada and losing 0-10 is a bit of a double edged sword for Latvia, because humans have bounded rationality, and unfortunately NHL GMs and scouts are human too, and are quick to label the entire team as hot garbage.

Adam Gajan is going to be great they say. Yet Deivs Rolovs has better stats at NAHL than Gajan did last year. Rolovs has never even been mentioned as a draft prospect. And what do I hear from the TSN commentators when our 4th line and bottom pairing Ds make dumb plays in front of him? In a way he's hostage to being a part of this team, as his numbers at the WJC are bound to be worse than a comparable goalie's on a better team. I hope Rolovs gets to play in NCAA next season. It would be interesting to compare his and Gajan's stats over there.

People don't seem to realize that smaller hockey nations have a smaller talent pool to select from and the difference between their top line and their 4th line is much bigger than on Team Canada. Our 4th liners will likely never play pro hockey. How is this related to how good our goalie or the top line winger is?

And this same line of erroneous reasoning is pretty much the only reason why Slafkovsky got drafted as the literal 1st pick. He scored a lot of goals for the national team against France and Kazakhstan, while being mediocre at the Finnish league. Their stats get padded and they get overhyped due to point production in a very small sample size. There is this Finnish player named Aatu Jämsen. Same leagues, same point production as Slafkovsky, smaller frame. He never even made the Finnish WJC squad and barely got drafted. If he was born in Bratislava, I would bet my house on him getting drafted several rounds higher.

It's not the Slovak fault that NHL draft selections are biased and imperfect, but my point is that it's not always a very precise way of measuring talent or a way of proving that someone's better than an undrafted kid.

There's too much weight being put on the WJC and U18s. There's a better, fact- and data-based approach in comparing players across all sort of leagues, including NAHL and the Latvian league.

I don't have the excel file on this device, but it's a simple concept. You just plot player point production with both Latvian league and NAHL experience and you adjust it for age and player usage, if possible. NAHL and the Latvian league were very similar about 2 years ago when I did the analysis, with Latvian league coming slightly on top.

The Latvian league has changed with several Estonian and Lithuanian teams coming in and we have probably over a dozen new NAHL players, so the numbers might have sightly changed since then, but I am very sure of NAHL and the Latvian league being roughly comparable/at least on par.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Adam Gajan is going to be great they say. Yet Deivs Rolovs has better stats at NAHL than Gajan did last year. Rolovs has never even been mentioned as a draft prospect

While you make some fair points, this is not one of them.

Without context, Rolovs stat line looks more impressive:

Rolovs
14-5-1
1.67GAA .922sv%
1 shutout

Gajan
19-12-3
2.57GAA .917sv%
1 shutout

But let's look at the other goalie's numbers on those teams:

Wieneke (plays with Rolovs in Lone Star)
10-0-1
0.94GAA .958sv%
3 shutouts

Wishart (played behind Gajan in Chippewa)
12-12-1
2.66GAA .908sv%
1 shutout

Rolovs is playing on a defensive juggernaut compared to what Gajan was working with. Add in the fact that you're comparing Gajan's 18 year old season vs Rolovs 19 years old season and it's pretty clear why Gajan is rated ahead of Rolovs.

 

[Namejs]

While you make some fair points, this is not one of them.

Without context, Rolovs stat line looks more impressive:

Rolovs
14-5-1
1.67GAA .922sv%
1 shutout

Gajan
19-12-3
2.57GAA .917sv%
1 shutout

But let's look at the other goalie's numbers on those teams:

Wieneke (plays with Rolovs in Lone Star)
10-0-1
0.94GAA .958sv%
3 shutouts

Wishart (played behind Gajan in Chippewa)
12-12-1
2.66GAA .908sv%
1 shutout

Rolovs is playing on a defensive juggernaut compared to what Gajan was working with. Add in the fact that you're comparing Gajan's 18 year old season vs Rolovs 19 years old season and it's pretty clear why Gajan is rated ahead of Rolovs.

I agree with you.

I think you're not quite reading into my main point. Rolovs is not a better prospect than Gajan. I'm saying that Gajan is overrated, while Rolovs is likely underrated, which is arguable.

I would never ever use a high 2nd round pick on Gajan. You don't assess a player based on 4 games at the WJC. He was the highest drafted goalie in the entire draft.

Do you consider him to be a better prospect than Augustine, Fowler and a number of other goalies that came way lower?

And, once again, this isn't some personal slight against Slovakia, the same sort of bias has helped a Latvian goalie before. A single game against Canada in the Olympics led to Gudlevskis playing in the NHL, which is absurd. He was extremely lucky and his positioning even in that game was terrible at times.

And the amount of hate I got in Latvian hockey boards when I explained that Gudlevskis is never going to be an NHL player was very similar.

There's a bunch of goalie prospects with just a single or a few good games at the U18s and they get drafted based on that.

That is the point I'm trying to bring across here.

Slovakia is unique in the way their prospects get overrated due to this type of bias, but it works on players of every nationality.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I agree with you.

I think you're not quite reading into my main point. Rolovs is not a better prospect than Gajan. I'm saying that Gajan is overrated, while Rolovs is likely underrated, which is arguable.

I would never ever use a high 2nd round pick on Gajan. You don't assess a player based on 4 games at the WJC. He was the highest drafted goalie in the entire draft.

Do you consider him to be a better prospect than Augustine, Fowler and a number of other goalies that came way lower?

And, once again, this isn't some personal slight against Slovakia, the same sort of bias has helped a Latvian goalie before. A single game against Canada in the Olympics led to Gudlevskis playing in the NHL, which is absurd. He was extremely lucky and his positioning even in that game was terrible at times.

And the amount of hate I got in Latvian hockey boards when I explained that Gudlevskis is never going to be an NHL player was very similar.

There's a bunch of goalie prospects with just a single or a few good games at the U18s and they get drafted based on that.

That is the point I'm trying to bring across here.

Slovakia is unique in the way their prospects get overrated due to this type of bias, but it works on players of every nationality.

I have no issue with Gajan going as high as he did. He wasn't drafted just because of his WJC performance. - he was impressive in league play as well, and is backing that up this year. He's a very good goaltender.

 

[Namejs]

I have no issue with Gajan going as high as he did. He wasn't drafted just because of his WJC performance. - he was impressive in league play as well, and is backing that up this year. He's a very good goaltender.

79% of the goalies drafted in the 2nd round have played in the NHL.

Would you make a 1:5 bet that he does play in the NHL?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

79% of the goalies drafted in the 2nd round have played in the NHL.

Would you make a 1:5 bet that he does play in the NHL?

Yeah, I think I would take that bet. The Blackhawks' goaltending pipeline isn't exactly bursting at the seems. Commesso is their only U24 goalie in the system who would realistically be competing with him. Soderblom and Stauber are a bit older and really aren't top young goalies. Gajan is probably the best goalie in the USHL this year.

 

[Namejs]

Yeah, I think I would take that bet. The Blackhawks' goaltending pipeline isn't exactly bursting at the seems. Commesso is their only U24 goalie in the system who would realistically be competing with him. Soderblom and Stauber are a bit older and really aren't top young goalies. Gajan is probably the best goalie in the USHL this year.

Fair enough. I would easily make the opposite bet, especially if we add at least 10 NHL games played as a minimum requirement. I would even take a 50:50 bet on that.

We'll see about that in a couple of years.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Fair enough. I would easily make the opposite bet, especially if we add at least 10 NHL games played as a minimum requirement. I would even take a 50:50 bet on that.

We'll see about that in a couple of years.

Do 79% of goalies picked in the 2nd round play 10 games?