Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season - Complete without a great title in keeping with the performance

[Kurtz]

FWIW, the average player puts up significantly less than 2.0fWAR.

The last one I saw had it at something like 8.7M per fWAR, but Fangraphs publishes them every couple of years.

I was a fan of the IKF signing in the sense that if you can afford 7.5M, he's a better Espinal (with borderline starter ability). He outperformed that, but the Jays couldn't afford it in retrospect.

Free agent $/War has been declining the last few years: The Trend in $/WAR for Free Agents — The Paraball Notes

An average MLB starter averages 2 fWar: What is WAR?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

So thus offseason we have about 116 million committed to the roster with Vlad, Varsho, Kirk, etc needing new contracts or arbitration.

Let's say it costs around 40-45 million to pay all the arb guys, and we spend as much on the roster as we did this year (246 million). That gives us about 85 million to improve the roster.

We need to resign Vlad to an extension ASAP, since we couldn't possibly offer Soto the kind of money he will command on the market without also raising Vlad's ask.

 

[Kurtz]

So thus offseason we have about 116 million committed to the roster with Vlad, Varsho, Kirk, etc needing new contracts or arbitration.

Let's say it costs around 40-45 million to pay all the arb guys, and we spend as much on the roster as we did this year (246 million). That gives us about 85 million to improve the roster.

We need to resign Vlad to an extension ASAP, since we couldn't possibly offer Soto the kind of money he will command on the market without also raising Vlad's ask.

Soto's gonna get half a billion or more - I can't see Shapiro selling that to management. And with the amount of holes we have to fill it just wouldn't leave enough to get everything done.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

IKF got off to a hot start. That's it so far. He has vastly outperformed his career stats SO far. Can't judge a good 2 year contract from 1/2 season that could just be an outlier.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

IKF got off to a hot start. That's it so far. He has vastly outperformed his career stats SO far. Can't judge a good 2 year contract from 1/2 season that could just be an outlier.

Weren't you the one calling it an awful contract? Is it to early to judge the contract or was it an awful signing? You gotta pick one lmao.

 

[Eyedea]

I did write average starter. Also the figure was $8m per war (not sure if the reference is to fWar or bWar).

I'm not sure that adding signing bonuses to the equation would be of much use - you'd have to amortize the bonus over the length of a player's first 6 year contract, which on average would amount to a relatively miniscule amount.

I know, I’m just saying the $5m average salary would not (I imagine) line up with an average mlb starter’s salary.

The signing bonus in theory is just an additional cost baked into what it would cost to draft and develop an mlb starter. I imagine the failures can also be lumped into that, making a free agent signing of a known commodity an attractive option.

And yes I know it’s an essential part of organizational strategy and that’s why the Jays and other orgs put in a large amount of resources into drafting and developing, but examples like the O’s for many years diverting resources from the Latin market to pivot their approach are not uncommon. Or the Jays just trading for/signing starting pitchers and primarily focusing on drafting/developing bats.

 

[phillipmike]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818707121807991146

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818703248381165776

 

[Discoverer]

IKF got off to a hot start. That's it so far. He has vastly outperformed his career stats SO far. Can't judge a good 2 year contract from 1/2 season that could just be an outlier.

Of course you can. They paid him about $4 million dollars for 2-3 WAR and then traded him for a prospect. The only part of that signing that matters to the Jays now is what McAdoo turns into. If IKF turns back into a pumpkin, that's Pittsburgh's issue now.

Even in the worst case scenario where McAdoo never reaches the majors, the Jays got 2-3 WAR for $4 million. That's a great signing.

 

[Blitzkrug]

I'm not expecting a big haul in free agency.

Truth be told, a lot of the names out there either don't make sense in the context of bats (why give Soto half a billion when you're steps away from a rebuild?) or don't fit like Alonso

Pitching is a fair amount better. Quite a few names that could make an impact the moment they're signed. Fried, Eovaldi, Burnes.

Not ideal for a team that's multiple pieces away from competing in 2025 and are one step off a rebuild.

 

[MS]

IKF got off to a hot start. That's it so far. He has vastly outperformed his career stats SO far. Can't judge a good 2 year contract from 1/2 season that could just be an outlier.

4 of his last 5 seasons would have out-performed his contract.

He had one down year in 2023 (when NYY moved him to OF to make room for their top prospect Volpe) but has otherwise been a 3-4 WAR/162 player for a long time now. The fan reaction to this signing was insane.

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818638101817807329

 

[aingefan]

So thus offseason we have about 116 million committed to the roster with Vlad, Varsho, Kirk, etc needing new contracts or arbitration.

Let's say it costs around 40-45 million to pay all the arb guys, and we spend as much on the roster as we did this year (246 million). That gives us about 85 million to improve the roster.

We need to resign Vlad to an extension ASAP, since we couldn't possibly offer Soto the kind of money he will command on the market without also raising Vlad's ask.

Is there a site or resource you check that?
I love the hockey and basketba site layouts.
Thx in advance.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818638101817807329

Bloss should scrap the changeup and switch to the splitter given his arm stroke and release point aren't conducive to the change. No better players to learn from than Gausman and Swanson.

Is there a site or resource you check that?
I love the hockey and basketba site layouts.
Thx in advance.

I just use baseball-reference and go to contracts. There's probably a better site that I'm not aware of.

 

[tmlms13]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818703248381165776

Remember when he stole the jays scouting report card when he was in TB? Pretty blatant cheating imo. Will never forget that or forgive him for it.

MLB should have taken away 6 wins from TB

 

[Blitzkrug]

Remember when he stole the jays scouting report card when he was in TB? Pretty blatant cheating imo. Will never forget that or forgive him for it.

MLB should have taken away 6 wins from TB

Laughable.

Maybe Kirk should have made sure the card didn't fall out of his wristband.

 

[Kurtz]

Remember when he stole the jays scouting report card when he was in TB? Pretty blatant cheating imo. Will never forget that or forgive him for it.

MLB should have taken away 6 wins from TB

As a Jays fan, that was annoying, but approaching it objectively, here was a guy who was a hard-core competitor, and I can respect that.

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818845144688230528

 

[Blitzkrug]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818845144688230528

If not for clinching the division at Camden in 2015, this would be the last time anything good happened to the Jays in Baltimore.

 

[Bjindaho]

Remember when he stole the jays scouting report card when he was in TB? Pretty blatant cheating imo. Will never forget that or forgive him for it.

MLB should have taken away 6 wins from TB

Hated him for it, but the second he signed in Toronto, he went out of his way to be the best he could be.

Is there a site or resource you check that?
I love the hockey and basketba site layouts.
Thx in advance.

Fangraphs has a contracts side under RosterResource which i believe is highly thought of.

 

[Suntouchable13]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818845144688230528

I forgot that ballpark is that old already. Not that much younger than Rogers Centre.

Remember when he stole the jays scouting report card when he was in TB? Pretty blatant cheating imo. Will never forget that or forgive him for it.

MLB should have taken away 6 wins from TB

I don’t think that is cheating. If he entered the Jays clubhouse somehow and stole the card then it would be cheating.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1819009151382573072

 

[aingefan]

I was just coming around to say it’s d-day for Trey.
Glad that business is done.
I’m an unfailingly optimistic guy when it comes to prospects, so I’m gonna watch more closely the next while.
The organization’s ranking is gonna take a hit with a bunch of ‘graduations’ and injuries and underperforming guys, but maybe the law of averages will balance out next year. There’s actually good upside at every level, so maybe sunnier days are ahead.
The cool thing about the graduates is that there’s lots of versatile, multi-position guys who hit from both sides of the plate. ‘25 could see lots of platoons and development opportunities for young guys. Add to that, some of those guys are interesting athletically so maybe abit more excitement on the offence side.
Should be fun following.

 

[phillipmike]

https://www.mlb.com/news/each-club-s-hottest-pitching-prospect-july-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Blue Jays: Kendry Rojas, LHP (No. 12)
Rojas missed more than two months in the first half while dealing with a shoulder issue but has been solid for High-A Vancouver since his return on July 9, posting a 1.98 ERA with 16 strikeouts over three starts (13 2/3 innings) in that time. His July 26 outing (6 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K) was his best of the year and a clear sign he’s come back in good form for the stretch run.

Nice to get Yesavage signed. With trading for mostly hitters, the Jays draft of mostly pitchers near the top of the draft compliments the deadline moves very well.

Also bodes well that as pitchers, Bloss and Yesavage are firmly in the Jays top 3 prospects. Possibly even 1-2 with Tiedemann and Orelvis out. Both Bloss and Yesavage could be contributors late next season which is what this staff needs. Then add in Manoah and Tiedemann as options in 2026 should help as well. Need at least 2 of Bloss, Yesavage, Manoah, Tiedemann and Yariel become legit 3 or 4 starters.

 

[Discoverer]

It's fun to check minor league scores and start to see a lot of the deadline acquisitions and recent draft picks starting to get into lineups, along with some post-deadline promotions (Victor Arias was the first one I noticed moving to Vancouver after a fantastic season in Dunedin).

At the very least, the minor league system should be a lot of fun to follow the rest of the season.

(Also, Alan Roden has been on a tear for Buffalo lately after a slow start. That's been nice to see.)