Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

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MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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I posted two stats. One is OAA (he's bad at it). The other is DRS (he's average at it).

Based on those two, he's an average overall defender with flaws (the ones I specifically mentioned). Also, I've argued before (and will continue to) that DRS still understates his contributions around the bag (but OAA gives him 0 credit for it)

This basically lines up with what I said originally though - OAA as a stat as a bad stat for evaluating defensive play. But people are quoting stats like this to show that 'Vladdy is a terrible defensive 1B'.

A better, more comprehensive stat says he's pretty average. I suspect he's probably a bit above average.

God only knows how many errors he's saved Bichette over the past couple years with great picks on terrible throws.
 

Bjindaho

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Jun 12, 2006
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This basically lines up with what I said originally though - OAA as a stat as a bad stat for evaluating defensive play. But people are quoting stats like this to show that 'Vladdy is a terrible defensive 1B'.

A better, more comprehensive stat says he's pretty average. I suspect he's probably a bit above average.

God only knows how many errors he's saved Bichette over the past couple years with great picks on terrible throws.
Depending on position, the best defensive stat could be dramatically different. OAA is a terrible 1st baseman stat for exactly that.

Fangraphs Def is easily the best catcher stat (in fact, there is a hilarious difference between it and the others).

OAA and DRS should match for most of the others, but it is always a good idea to look at the why if they don't (for outfielders, OAA gives 0 credit for throwing while DRS punishes them for not being as fast as a CF whereas for 3B/SS/2B every DP ball that isn't two gets blamed on the guy the ball was hit to if you don't turn two and for all positions, DRS bases the expected result on where the ball was hit independent of where the fielder was while OAA only compares the fielders starting position to where the ball was hit).
 
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Blitzkrug

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Sep 17, 2013
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Don’t see that aging well.
Om top of this, the deal makes zero sense for San Francisco.

They are a team for all intents and purposes that probably needs to do a hard reset. This constant cycle of signing a shiny new toy to compliment a roster which can be best described as a mish-mash of parts that don't really fit together so they can finish somewhere between 75 and 85 wins isn't going to do anything for them long term. Especially with the Padres finding ways to stay competitive and Arizona fully emerging from their rebuild in their own division.

Everyone keeps saying "well I wouldn't want to face Snell and Webb in the playoffs" without realizing that they have to y'know, get there first.
 

dredeye

BJ Elitist/Hipster
Mar 3, 2008
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Really sounds like there’s zero chance Vlad will sign before free agency now either. He’s going to bet on himself and essentially make himself an extra 100 million I’m sure. Man our front office couldn’t have blundered more with this team and their punishment will be leaving at the same time as the free agents.
 

tmlfan98

No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Aug 13, 2012
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Seems like the team could decide not to bring back Romano next season.

Just as Bo Bichette’s late-season push to rejoin the Toronto Blue Jays is picking up, with a rehab assignment slated for next week, Jordan Romano’s is shutting down, a slower-than-expected recovery leaving him without enough runway to build up in time.

“The hope was to get him back, obviously, kind of like what we're doing with Bo,” manager John Schneider said Friday afternoon, before a 3-1 loss to Atlanta in the opener of a three-game series. “And he wanted to get back. It just didn't work out with the number of games we have left and what he is going to have to check off the list in order to get back. It'll be nice for him to have a regular off-season. I think that'll be a little bit comforting for him and for us and get him back for next year.”

That may not be as cut and dried as it seems given that the two-time all-star closer, who made $7.75 million this year, is likely to command a salary in the $8 million range in 2025, his final season of arbitration eligibility before free agency.

Seeing him pitch even a small handful of games in the final weeks of this trying year would have offered the Blue Jays a useful data point in deciding how to approach tendering Romano this off-season.

If healthy, there’s no doubt he’s worth the money. But after the 31-year-old twice received cortisone shots in his elbow before undergoing surgery to repair an impingement, they need be sure his health issues are behind him, especially since they must rebuild a bullpen that was among the primary causes of their collapse this year. Toronto also only has a finite amount of money to plug those, and other, roster holes.
To that end Friday’s recall from triple-A Buffalo of righty Luis Frias, one of five external relievers picked up since the trade deadline, is part of the club’s attempt to find some value arms for next year’s bullpen makeover.

Frias was claimed off waivers from Arizona on Aug. 10, three days after righty Thomas Nance was acquired from the San Diego Padres for cash. Three more claims – lefty Easton Lucas from Detroit on Aug. 19, righty Dillon Tate from Baltimore on Sept. 1 and righty Emmanuel Ramirez on Thursday from Miami – followed and while it may seem like the club is simply throwing darts on the board in the hopes of finding a bull’s-eye, it’s more deliberate than that.

In each case, the Blue Jays either identified a skill-set they really like, or felt like they had a fix that could help the player.


With Nance, for instance, who threw a clean seventh Friday, they really liked his curveball and have urged him to up the usage on the offering, which he’s done to some success.

Frias, meanwhile, has a big fastball that sits 96 and gets up to 98 along with a solid cutter he throws about half the time, complemented by a curveball he mixes in sparingly. The challenge for him is in his command and the Blue Jays’ early messaging to him has been to “make sure to execute my pitches and location, keep working on that,” Frias said through interpreter Hector Lebron. “But other than that, we haven't talked about any major changes.

Tate, a reliable part of the Orioles’ bullpen the past few seasons, may be the most intriguing name of the bunch. After missing last year with elbow/forearm injuries, his velocity is down about two m.p.h. this year from where it was in 2022, when logged 73.2 innings over 67 games with a 3.05 ERA.

He threw his first inning, a three-up, three-down frame, with Buffalo on Thursday, and an ideal scenario is that he can briefly join the Blue Jays for a look before the season ends.
Over his last six starts, Gausman has pitched to a 2.56 ERA over 38.2 innings while locking in a more consistent delivery, which has led him to better command of his fastball at the top and bottom of the strike zone, Friday aside.

That’s something he’ll try to carry into 2025 and several of his teammates are looking to build on different elements they can use for next year, as well.

Frias is among them, with pitching coach Pete Walker saying that the Blue Jays “have a little bit of a plan up here with him as far as how we're going to use his stuff. It comes down to him executing a little bit, but also just really just pounding the zone and trying to utilize that cutter.”

The 26-year-old said he was “very excited, very happy” when he learned that the Blue Jays had claimed him, calling this a “second chance, which I appreciate. I'm trying to take advantage of that and do the best I can to try to help the team.”

With so much uncertainty about Romano’s future and the bullpen as a whole, if Frias and others can seize the opportunity before them now, they’ll be helping the Blue Jays in more ways than one.
 
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Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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Wow, I did not expect Bo to actually come out and say that his goal is to remain with Vladdy in Toronto and win a championship together. So all those rumours of him not intending to re-sign in Toronto were bunk.
 
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Bjindaho

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Jun 12, 2006
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Between this, the suggestion that Romano may not get signed, and everything else, we know where all the problems are.

Let's face a very simple fact. Bo should never have made it to 2023 without a contract extension. With his career beginning, he compared favorably to Carlos Correa and slightly worse than Trea Turner (but like Correa, Bichette had shown more consistency). The Athletic projected that it would cost the Jays somewhere around 30M per year to buy out free agency, and Bo will be younger than anyone like him), which is more than Turner (whose contract runs until he is 40) but less than Correa and could have covered his arb years.

Losing a top 5 closer because you have to pay him 8M per year and he might not be fully healthy is the kind of penny pinching that even suggesting it might happen should get people fired for financial mismanagement. Without Romano, the Jays bullpen will struggle to ever be even average in quality.

Beyond that, all 3 (with Guerrero) want to be here, and the Jays aren't exactly in great shape financially. They have 72.5M in committed salaries where CBT starts at 244M, meaning that they are 171.5M away with only 4 players accounted for (Springer, Gausman, Berrios, Rodriguez).

Wow, I did not expect Bo to actually come out and say that his goal is to remain with Vladdy in Toronto and win a championship together. So all those rumours of him not intending to re-sign in Toronto were bunk.
Being absolutely blunt, I think that those rumors came out of the Blue Jays side to try to justify trading him.
 

tmlfan98

No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Aug 13, 2012
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Between this, the suggestion that Romano may not get signed, and everything else, we know where all the problems are.

Losing a top 5 closer because you have to pay him 8M per year and he might not be fully healthy is the kind of penny pinching that even suggesting it might happen should get people fired for financial mismanagement. Without Romano, the Jays bullpen will struggle to ever be even average in quality.
It's not penny pinching in Romano's case, it's that he likely isn't valued by them as an 8M+ RP going forward due to the continued arm issues he's dealt with recently. If they thought he would be worth 8M+ going forward they would tender him no question.

The Romano tender decision also doesn't suggest that the opening day CBT payroll for 2025 will be any less than 240-250M, in line with what the opening day CBT payroll has been the past 2 years as well. If Romano is non-tendered and isn't part of their group of arb players that will just mean they have more to spend on free agents.
 

Bjindaho

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Jun 12, 2006
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It's not penny pinching in Romano's case, it's that he likely isn't valued by them as an 8M+ RP going forward due to the continued arm issues he's dealt with recently. If they thought he would be worth 8M+ going forward they would tender him no question.

The Romano tender decision also doesn't suggest that the opening day CBT payroll for 2025 will be any less than 240-250M, in line with what the opening day CBT payroll has been the past 2 years as well. If Romano is non-tendered and isn't part of their group of arb players that will just mean they have more to spend on free agents.
He's been injured once (for which he had surgery).

Also, while his 8M would be around 11th right now, there are a few guys who are about to become free agents that are going to knock that down. If he hits FA, there is no reason why the Yankees or Red Sox wouldn't immediately make an offer for a 1-2 at the back of their bullpen.

And the pathetic thing about this is that we are talking about non-tendering as in walking away completely and getting nothing for a guy who should have pretty good value on the trade market for whatever his arbitration settles for.
 

GermanJay

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Mar 4, 2017
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He's been injured once (for which he had surgery).

Also, while his 8M would be around 11th right now, there are a few guys who are about to become free agents that are going to knock that down. If he hits FA, there is no reason why the Yankees or Red Sox wouldn't immediately make an offer for a 1-2 at the back of their bullpen.

And the pathetic thing about this is that we are talking about non-tendering as in walking away completely and getting nothing for a guy who should have pretty good value on the trade market for whatever his arbitration settles for.
But nobody here can seriously project how he will bounce back from this injury. So If the Blue Jays have doubts that he will be able to return to his 21-23 form its completely legit to save 8 Million dollars, whether that would be the right decision or not would be something for September 2025.
 

MK78

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Apr 8, 2023
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But nobody here can seriously project how he will bounce back from this injury. So If the Blue Jays have doubts that he will be able to return to his 21-23 form its completely legit to save 8 Million dollars, whether that would be the right decision or not would be something for September 2025.
Closers usually don't last long, in terms of their health and performance. Romano throws hard and it looks like his arm paid the price. He had a good run of 3 years, I think he can still be an effective reliever just not a closer, as his cracks were starting to show.

Maybe they can share the load with Green.

But I wouldn't be shelling any big bucks at the guy for any significant term.
 

aingefan

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Feb 27, 2008
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Well, that’s pretty definitive sounding from Bo. Here’s hoping he returns to health and productivity.
My first instinct is that George Springers AB’s and dollars are even more of an anchor with the news and afew RH bat infielders became more redundant.
With Vlad, Bo and Horwitz looking like locks (SH v. Rhp). Clement gets a bunch of time on the left side of the infield with Wagner on the right, Barger can get AB’s at 3b and rf, there’s a competition to be the RH bat at 2B.
Overall, there’s looking to be a number of guys vying for time that look to be around league average offensively but making a small fraction of what George does, making his approximate league average production a bit of a blocker.
And that’s before a potential big bat/big $ hitter is added to the mix.
Then there’s at bats for the guys who look about as ready as they need to be in the outfield.
You could see moves with excesses for pitching, or kicking it down the road guys left in AAA with options, but there’s a potential loss of cost effectiveness here/maximizing value.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
 

Suntouchable13

Registered User
Dec 20, 2003
44,173
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Toronto, ON
Well, that’s pretty definitive sounding from Bo. Here’s hoping he returns to health and productivity.
My first instinct is that George Springers AB’s and dollars are even more of an anchor with the news and afew RH bat infielders became more redundant.
With Vlad, Bo and Horwitz looking like locks (SH v. Rhp). Clement gets a bunch of time on the left side of the infield with Wagner on the right, Barger can get AB’s at 3b and rf, there’s a competition to be the RH bat at 2B.
Overall, there’s looking to be a number of guys vying for time that look to be around league average offensively but making a small fraction of what George does, making his approximate league average production a bit of a blocker.
And that’s before a potential big bat/big $ hitter is added to the mix.
Then there’s at bats for the guys who look about as ready as they need to be in the outfield.
You could see moves with excesses for pitching, or kicking it down the road guys left in AAA with options, but there’s a potential loss of cost effectiveness here/maximizing value.
Will be interesting to see what happens.

They do need to ditch Springer's contract. But man, I like him as a human. Love having him around the younger guys.
 
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