Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

[dredeye]

That hasn't exactly fixed anything for the Mariners.

Yes it’s hard to change things in a two week period. But let’s use the Oilers as a different example of a managerial change early in a season when a team is drastically underperforming. I hate hockey examples in baseball but being a manager scenario it’s not so bad lol. As a fan watching my team consistently underperform it would be nice to see some kind of accountability. Hell they gave mattingly a promotion after our offence wasn’t great last year. They could simply fire him and it would be something.

 

[tmlfan98]

From Shatkins promising waves to this:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831104827910242324

 

[canucksfan]

From Shatkins promising waves to this:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831104827910242324

Interesting. Pitching development seemed to be turning the corner but there has been a lot of injuries this year.

 

[Eyedea]

From Shatkins promising waves to this:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831104827910242324

To be fair, we’re seeing a pretty damn good wave right now.

With pitching not coming along as planned, this is hardly a surprise.

 

[tmlfan98]

Lack of front office pressure

View attachment 904838



Apparently we don’t draft players that make the big leagues

LOL and some Jays fans really thought our farm system would rank better when looked at this way (by seeing which teams most consistently churn successful graduates from their systems). So much for that.

 

[Eyedea]

Lack of front office pressure

View attachment 904838



Apparently we don’t draft players that make the big leagues

Is this including acquired prospects? Because I counted 8 that the Braves drafted and they were all pitchers. Strider is the obvious big ticket, then there’s a drop off to Elder and then Smith-Shawver and pretty much nothing after that.

Jays haven’t had a need to bring up many pitchers so teams that have had a revolving carousel could easily inflate this number. Or in the Braves case, a ton of injuries to the rotation. Notice how there’s some pretty good orgs down at the bottom half too. This “stat” is completely useless.

 

[aingefan]

Farm notes from Tuesday:
AAABuff: better day for Jake Bloss and the herd, 4 SO innings, but struggled some with command (4bb, 2balks, 80~pitches). Hagen Danner with a SO inning. Offense was humming. Kasevich 2/3 with 2bb and a 2b with 3rbi. Roden 2/5 with a HR, 2rbi, up to 310/881. Palmegiani the biggest stick, 2/4 with 2bombs. 12-0 final.
AANH: another tidy start for Lazaro Estrada, maybe making a case for the 40 man this year: 6ip, 1er, 7k. Under the radar Ryan Jennings closed it out, continuing a strong year. Josh Rivera with another pair of hits. Got his ba up to 171, which sounds awful - and is - but he was hitting just over a buck a couple weeks back. So…good on him heating up.
A+VAN: Adrian Pinto and Peyton Williams both 2-4, big games for Hornung/Ward who are probably org guys. Save went to Bo ‘baseball name’ Bonds.
ADUN: rained out.

 

[tmlfan98]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831306756816797919

 

[Discoverer]

Is this including acquired prospects? Because I counted 8 that the Braves drafted and they were all pitchers. Strider is the obvious big ticket, then there’s a drop off to Elder and then Smith-Shawver and pretty much nothing after that.

Jays haven’t had a need to bring up many pitchers so teams that have had a revolving carousel could easily inflate this number. Or in the Braves case, a ton of injuries to the rotation. Notice how there’s some pretty good orgs down at the bottom half too. This “stat” is completely useless.

Yeah, that list is a super weird way to look at drafting. It punishes healthy teams and teams that develop players slowly (Schneider, Horwitz, and Barger all debuted in the last year or so and were drafted outside of this five-year window), and it gives no consideration to the quality of the players who made the majors.

The Jays could DFA half the bullpen and replace them with Juenger, Cooke, and Fluharty. Then a few guys get hurt and they replace them with Roden, Tirotta, Kasevich, and Palmegiani. Suddenly the Jays would be at the top of that list, but the farm system and player development would be the exact same as it is today.

 

[hoglund]

Wow, I don't know how many 1 run games that they've lost, but I wonder what their record would be if they won half of them, maybe they'd be in a playoff spot.

 

[Bjindaho]

Some interesting stats...

Vlad is now 4th in wRC+ with 171, behind Judge (217), Soto (181) and Witt Jr (173).

He's 18th in career fWAR as a Jay and is 0.1 behind Shannon Stewart.

Of anyone with 100 or more PA, he is 7th in wRC+ (137) as a Jay behind McGriff (152), Donaldson (150), Winfield (140), Delgado (139), Belt (138, but he was heavily platoon shielded for most of the year) and Bautista (138).

 

[Discoverer]

Some interesting stats...

Vlad is now 4th in wRC+ with 171, behind Judge (217), Soto (181) and Witt Jr (173).

He's 18th in career fWAR as a Jay and is 0.1 behind Shannon Stewart.

Of anyone with 100 or more PA, he is 7th in wRC+ (137) as a Jay behind McGriff (152), Donaldson (150), Winfield (140), Delgado (139), Belt (138, but he was heavily platoon shielded for most of the year) and Bautista (138).

wRC+ by month this year:

March/April - 99
May - 166
June - 172
July - 201
August - 212
September - 591

He returned to being an elite hitter in May and has somehow just gotten better and better every month since.

 

[Puckstuff]

Some interesting stats...

Vlad is now 4th in wRC+ with 171, behind Judge (217), Soto (181) and Witt Jr (173).

He's 18th in career fWAR as a Jay and is 0.1 behind Shannon Stewart.

Of anyone with 100 or more PA, he is 7th in wRC+ (137) as a Jay behind McGriff (152), Donaldson (150), Winfield (140), Delgado (139), Belt (138, but he was heavily platoon shielded for most of the year) and Bautista (138).

I also noticed that he holds the MLB record for the most home runs by a 22-year-old, with 48 home runs. And now he's back in form. They need to sign him as soon as possible.

 

[Eyedea]

wRC+ by month this year:

March/April - 99
May - 166
June - 172
July - 201
August - 212
September - 591

He returned to being an elite hitter in May and has somehow just gotten better and better every month since.

First in wRC+ in the 2nd half, now up to 5.1 fWAR and clearly the best 1B in baseball.

Team wide the Jays are also top 10 in pretty much every offensive category in the 2nd half and have been a net positive over the season now.

 

[Eyedea]

I also noticed that he holds the MLB record for the most home runs by a 22-year-old, with 48 home runs. And now he's back in form. They need to sign him as soon as possible.

Now that he has two 160+ wRC+ seasons under his belt, he has the two best offensive seasons when compared to Miggy by age 25.

Also considering he had a short season, getting 880 hits to date is impressive. Will be interesting to follow him and Soto to see if they have a shot at the 3,000 club.

 

[MS]

First in wRC+ in the 2nd half, now up to 5.1 fWAR and clearly the best 1B in baseball.

Team wide the Jays are also top 10 in pretty much every offensive category in the 2nd half and have been a net positive over the season now.

Yeah, team OPS+ is now sitting at 101.

Pitching stats are horrible and basically ahead of only the CWS/Rockies/Angels/Marlins of the world.

 

[aingefan]

Farm notes:
AAABUFF: bullpen day, started by recently claimed LHP Easton Lucas, who spun 3 so innings with 4K. Next man up gave up 5 for the loss. Steward Berroa seems too good for AAA, 2-4 with a triple. Alan Roden 1-3 with a double, ops pushing 900.
AANH: swept a twin bill on the backs of good pitching. Kevin Miranda tossed 7ip, one earned run. Mystery catcher Robert Brooks 2-2 with a hr. Rivera pushing towards the Mendoza line, 2-3 with a 2b. Bullpen start in the second game, Dehian Santos threw 3so innings.
A+VAN: rough one for the Canadians, Juaron Watts-Brown took it on the chin giving up 8er and 4hr over 4.1. Bohrofen, Williams, Ward, Coffey, Orf, Harry and Sharp all had multi-hit games.

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831564139271004254

 

[phillipmike]

Happy for Pearson, seems like he has turned the page and found his groove with Chicago. Was a part of a no hitter last night.

Also good for Chapman but that contract, woof.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

This “stat” is completely useless.

what is a good measure of drafting success ?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Happy for Pearson, seems like he has turned the page and found his groove with Chicago. Was a part of a no hitter last night.

Also good for Chapman but that contract, woof.

Of course a team not named Blue Jays throws a no hitter, unreal. When are we gonna see one?

 

[Bjindaho]

what is a good measure of drafting success ?

Evaluating things with proper retrospect.

The MLB draft usually has a lot of 18-21 year olds and the common age range for guys to make the big leagues is usually 24-26 though some take longer. That means that using anything less than a 5 year window will ignore a significant percentage of the draft class.

The perfect point to fully evaluate is once you get past 6 years. At that point, the player either has stepped into the big leagues (and you have a big league body of work) or he's eligible to become a minor league free agent.

 

[Discoverer]

Happy for Pearson, seems like he has turned the page and found his groove with Chicago. Was a part of a no hitter last night.

Also good for Chapman but that contract, woof.

The way he's cut down on walks is pretty encouraging, but his peripherals are only very slightly better than with the Jays. He's getting absolutely hammered (HardHit%, Barrel%, Avg EV all WAY up) but has somehow had a .158 BABIP and benefitted from a 100% LOB rate.

The ERA strikes me as a ton of small-sample luck to this point.

 

[Bjindaho]

The way he's cut down on walks is pretty encouraging, but his peripherals are only very slightly better than with the Jays. He's getting absolutely hammered (HardHit%, Barrel%, Avg EV all WAY up) but has somehow had a .158 BABIP and benefitted from a 100% LOB rate.

The ERA strikes me as a ton of small-sample luck to this point.

It depends.

If his IFFB (26.3) is based on an adjustment, then this is completely sustainable. If the IFFB is a small sample size artifact, then this could get scary.

 

[metafour]

It depends.

If his IFFB (26.3) is based on an adjustment, then this is completely sustainable. If the IFFB is a small sample size artifact, then this could get scary.

It is highly improbable that he doubled his IFFB% through "adjustment".

There are only 3 qualified relievers with an IFFB% of 20% or above this season. A 26% IFFB% is absurd, and given the fact that its over only 16 IP, it shouldn't be taken very seriously.