Arias’ game starts with a good approach. He chases just 24% of the time, 3% better than league average, but he avoids passivity, swinging at an average number of strikes. He’s also a slightly above average contact hitter, with an 80% in-zone contact rate vs. the league average of 79%. Where he shines is his power production, though. Arias has reached an exit velocity of 109.4mph, which would be in the 33rd percentile in MLB, but hard hit rate (40.8%) is already above the MLB median. His 30 extra base hits are fifth in the FSL, and all but one player ahead of him has had at least 35 more PAs. The only real criticism of his hitting is that he puts the ball on the ground too much, a little over 50% of the time. His 4.6 degree launch angle is significantly below the FSL average of 10.2 and would be one of the 5 lowest in the major leagues. His swing involves a big leg kick and a high hand load that it looks like might make it hard for him to get the barrel down in time to lift the ball. In the little that’s been written about him elsewhere,
Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs noted that there were questions about whether his bat path would work against better quality pitching. He has great bat speed, though, and with an already solid approach he has the tools to hit his way up the ladder if he can make the necessary adjustment.
A stocky 5’11”, Arias already looks like an adult, so there may not be much more physical development left for him. He splits his time between centre and left field, but the latter is probably his home in the upper levels. He’ll need to hit, and hit with impact, then, to have a shot at an MLB future. Everything he’s doing in Dunedin this year suggests he has the potential to do that, but we’ll see whether he can either keep making his swing work or find an adjustment as the competition gets tougher.
