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Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending)

saska sault

saska sault

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Jun 5, 2010
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trellaine201 said:
Wow Mike Trout returned and only lasted two innings! Knee trouble. Poor guy has been decimated with injuries and poor teams.
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It's unreal how he can't stay healthy. I'm in my 30s and only remember a bit of the tail end of watching Ken Griffey Jr... but Mike Trout still is the best baseball player I've ever seen IMO. The fact I can't buy tickets in advance to see him, because you don't know if he will be healthy is sad.
 
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Bjindaho

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Jun 12, 2006
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saska sault said:
It's unreal how he can't stay healthy. I'm in my 30s and only remember a bit of the tail end of watching Ken Griffey Jr... but Mike Trout still is the best baseball player I've ever seen IMO. The fact I can't buy tickets in advance to see him, because you don't know if he will be healthy is sad.
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Prime trout was better by a bit (hence the 8 WAR difference) but they are both guys that are easy to root for (fairly quiet and go about doing everything hard).
 
Suntouchable13

Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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dredeye said:
Shopping them is one thing. Listening on them is another. We don't need to trade any of them so we don't need to shop them around. But you can bet if the right move presents itself they'll be gone.
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Of course, if someone blows you away with an offer they will be gone. As it should be. AS you said, they don't have to be traded.
 
Kurtz

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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According to Blake Murphy, Jays will need to shed about $30 mil in payroll (prorated) at the deadline to stay out of the more punitive area (50%) of repeater luxury tax next year and instead stay at the 20% threshold they are this year.

So probably won't be taking on much salary in deadline deals.
 

DuklaNation

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Aug 26, 2004
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Mike Trout has played 3 career playoff games and hit .083. You make your reputation in the playoffs and he's failed to get it done. I would rank MANY players ahead of him. Don't care about the big regular season stats.
 

Bjindaho

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Kurtz said:
According to Blake Murphy, Jays will need to shed about $30 mil in payroll (prorated) at the deadline to stay out of the more punitive area (50%) of repeater luxury tax next year and instead stay at the 20% threshold they are this year.

So probably won't be taking on much salary in deadline deals.
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I believe that his math is wrong (but not by much) and the explanation is wrong. Edit: If the Jays drop below, they pay 0% tax this year and pay 20 next year (versus 50 next year)

Per Spotrac (and what the Jays had posted), they are over by somewhere by 8,434,086. If the Jays only make deals on the 31st, they need to cut $26,731,764.10 in actual salary. Every day before that lowers the number.

The Jays can get under with Kikuchi, Garcia, Kiermaier (50% retained), Turner (50% retained), but things would get a lot easier if, say, a Green went.
 
metafour

metafour

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DuklaNation said:
Mike Trout has played 3 career playoff games and hit .083. You make your reputation in the playoffs and he's failed to get it done. I would rank MANY players ahead of him. Don't care about the big regular season stats.
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Read your post again and take a look at the sample size you just referenced LOL.

You realize that you can find a 3-5 game sample where someone hit ".083" for any player in MLB history, right? That could literally be entirely the result of bad luck.

And no, it's not Mike Trout's responsibility to somehow magically get his team to the playoffs. This isn't basketball where you have 5 starters and therefore one elite player can win you enough games to get you into the playoffs. Oned player doesn't mean anything in baseball.
 
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Bjindaho

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metafour said:
Read your post again and take a look at the sample size you just referenced LOL.

You realize that you can find a 3-5 game sample where someone hit ".083" for any player in MLB history, right? That could literally be entirely the result of bad luck.

And no, it's not Mike Trout's responsibility to somehow magically get his team to the playoffs. This isn't basketball where you have 5 starters and therefore one elite player can win you enough games to get you into the playoffs. Oned player doesn't mean anything in baseball.
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He has 2 of the top 10 and 4 of the top 20 fielder seasons since 2000 (that includes Bonds, A-Rod and a prime Sosa season).
 

DuklaNation

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Aug 26, 2004
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metafour said:
Read your post again and take a look at the sample size you just referenced LOL.

You realize that you can find a 3-5 game sample where someone hit ".083" for any player in MLB history, right? That could literally be entirely the result of bad luck.

And no, it's not Mike Trout's responsibility to somehow magically get his team to the playoffs. This isn't basketball where you have 5 starters and therefore one elite player can win you enough games to get you into the playoffs. Oned player doesn't mean anything in baseball.
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That's true but it shows the flaws in his game. Beating up on bad teams/bad pitchers is overrated. If I'm trying to win, I take Freddie Freeman over him.if I'm trying to put up stats, I take Trout.
 
Kurtz

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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Bjindaho said:
I believe that his math is wrong (but not by much) and the explanation is wrong. Edit: If the Jays drop below, they pay 0% tax this year and pay 20 next year (versus 50 next year)

Per Spotrac (and what the Jays had posted), they are over by somewhere by 8,434,086. If the Jays only make deals on the 31st, they need to cut $26,731,764.10 in actual salary. Every day before that lowers the number.

The Jays can get under with Kikuchi, Garcia, Kiermaier (50% retained), Turner (50% retained), but things would get a lot easier if, say, a Green went.
Click to expand...

Sportac sometimes omits salaries. For example, are they including Voglebach's salary?
 
tmlfan98

tmlfan98

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Aug 13, 2012
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Kurtz said:
Sportac sometimes omits salaries. For example, are they including Voglebach's salary?
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Yeah RosterResource and Cots are both generally considered more reliable than Spotrac for baseball contracts (I've always preferred RR over Cots). RosterResource has them at 10.4M over the CBT threshold and Cots has them at 13.1M over.

Somewhere in that range would have to be cleared prorated on deadline day, so total CBT hit cleared would need to be in the 31.9-40.2M range. The total CBT hit of all the pending FAs on this team is around 48.9M.

MLBTR explains it better here: Looking At The Blue Jays And The Competitive Balance Tax
 
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Canada4Gold

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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metafour said:
Messina is a Top 250 ranked prospect and will take up pretty much everything they have left most likely. I expect him to sign for $700K+.

Terrell was a courtesy pick. They don't have the money to sign him. If they did they wouldn't have waited until the 19th round to draft him.



The rest of the saved money goes to Messina. HS RHP ranked in the Top 250 with an SEC commitment isn't going to be cheap.

Atlanta signed a similarly ranked HS RHP for ~$800-850K in the 5th round. I haven't looked at the numbers closely, but if Yesavage signs for slot then they have like $700-750K to pay Messina.
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https://x.com/i/web/status/1816126730597548151

So as I was saying we had 580k overslot(+30k with Cates coming in a hair below slot) that we can give Yesavage, Messina and Terrell combined. I don't really see Messina taking up that much over(he took 400k of it) and not sure they can get both him and Terrell for that much(Unless Terrell wants to do something dumb and sign for 360k) so I guess Yesavage is coming in slightly above slot? Any more incorrect corrections?
 
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metafour

metafour

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Canada4Gold said:
https://x.com/i/web/status/1816126730597548151

So as I was saying we had 580k overslot(+30k with Cates coming in a hair below slot) that we can give Yesavage, Messina and Terrell combined. I don't really see Messina taking up that much over(he took 400k of it) and not sure they can get both him and Terrell for that much(Unless Terrell wants to do something dumb and sign for 360k) so I guess Yesavage is coming in slightly above slot? Any more incorrect corrections?
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What.jpg?

Incorrect corrections? Because I was off by $150K on Messina?

Let me remind you that your claim was that Messina wouldn't be "taking up that much over". $400K over slot past the 10th round is not a "little bit" lol.

By the way, there have been some reports that 17th round pick Gavin Smith (also a HS player) might be signing as well, so its still not a given that all of the leftover money is going to Yesavage.
 
Canada4Gold

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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metafour said:
What.jpg?

Incorrect corrections? Because I was off by $150K on Messina?

Let me remind you that your claim was that Messina wouldn't be "taking up that much over". $400K over slot past the 10th round is not a "little bit" lol.

By the way, there have been some reports that 17th round pick Gavin Smith (also a HS player) might be signing as well, so its still not a given that all of the leftover money is going to Yesavage.
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What? I literally said this

Canada4Gold said:
Gives us 580k overslot that we can give Yesavage, Messina and Terrell combined. I don't really see Messina taking up that much over and not sure they can get both him and Terrell for that much so I guess Yesavage is coming in slightly above slot?
Click to expand...

"That much" referring to 580k overslot. I didn't think we'd give him 730k is what I was saying. Like someone might say, I only have 60 bucks, "Oh don't worry I don't think the taxi ride will cost that much" doesn't mean it's going to be close to free but rather it won't approach the 60 dollars they have. Maybe you understood that to mean not much overslot at all but that's a you issue. I was thinking in the 450k-500k range, and then Yesavage would cost the rest. If I thought Messina would cost like 200k then why would I then go on to say I don't think they could get him and Terrell. Surely you don't think I thought Messina would cost 200k and Terrell 1 million? They're not that different in value.

Maybe ask for clarification on what someone is saying before telling them they're wrong when their guess was closer than yours rather then just assume the thing they said was some ridiculous assertion and jumping at the opportunity to tell them how wrong they are.
 
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