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Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

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Suntouchable13

Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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Toronto, ON
Eyedea said:
Sure but maybe you should temper your expectations a bit as well. There’s less than 10 players in history who have 10+ years worth of PAs and a better career wRC+ than Vlad’s current 2024 mark. If he averaged this for this rest of his career he’d be one of the best hitters of all time.

And in the grand scheme of things, what’s $300 million? Judge is making 40m aav. Soto is probably going to hit that same aav (or slightly higher) for 12 years. Vladdy getting 300m doesn’t seem that flawed if he even maintained a 140-150 wRC+ over a 10 year contract.
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Ok, if so this makes this season doubly frustrating/disappointing. Wish we had a better season as a team so his hitting contributed to a playoff team. Seen a lot of this with previous great players like Halladay and Delgado who’s insane seasons were wasted on mediocre/bad teams.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Suntouchable13 said:
I wouldn’t say this season is that insane overall when compared to expectations. He needs to have this kind of season every year going forward. Especially if he is going to sign a 300M+ extension. That’s what we should expect, no? To be clear, I am not saying he should be hitting .460 for the whole season, I am just talking about his overall season numbers.
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Vlad's offensive ability is up there with literally any player in the league, but even then I don't think expecting him to have a 165+ wRC+ every year is reasonable.

A lot of Hall of Fame-calibre hitters that I can remember watching only had a season this good once or twice in their careers (Delgado, Ortiz, Martinez, Bagwell, Thome, Walker) or never quite reached this level (Griffey and Vlad Sr.) None of those guys did it at as young an age as Vlad, and this is already his second time doing it.

It's been an often frustrating, up-and-down career for Vlad so far, no doubt, but even most of the best hitters we've seen didn't have these kind of highs by the time they were 25.
 
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Suntouchable13

Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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Toronto, ON
Discoverer said:
Vlad's offensive ability is up there with literally any player in the league, but even then I don't think expecting him to have a 165+ wRC+ every year is reasonable.

A lot of Hall of Fame-calibre hitters that I can remember watching only had a season this good once or twice in their careers (Delgado, Ortiz, Martinez, Bagwell, Thome, Walker) or never quite reached this level (Griffey and Vlad Sr.) None of those guys did it at as young an age as Vlad, and this is already his second time doing it.

It's been an often frustrating, up-and-down career for Vlad so far, no doubt, but even most of the best hitters we've seen didn't have these kind of highs by the time they were 25.
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Ok, so how about consistently posting 140-150 OPS+ seasons then? 120 OPS+ Vladdy is not what we need. We need him to be great consistently.
 
LaP

LaP

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Jun 27, 2012
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Quebec City, Canada
Eyedea said:
Sure but maybe you should temper your expectations a bit as well. There’s less than 10 players in history who have 10+ years worth of PAs and a better career wRC+ than Vlad’s current 2024 mark. If he averaged this for this rest of his career he’d be one of the best hitters of all time.

And in the grand scheme of things, what’s $300 million? Judge is making 40m aav. Soto is probably going to hit that same aav (or slightly higher) for 12 years. Vladdy getting 300m doesn’t seem that flawed if he even maintained a 140-150 wRC+ over a 10 year contract.
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I don't think Vlad or well pretty much any player outside of a select few can keep this pace for more than a season or two. But Vlad is better than what people pretended he was. Even last year it was not that bad when you consider it was pretty much his worse season since his debut season. Many players would kill to have Vlad's last season as a good season and for him it was a bad one.

Would not pay him Ohtani's money or what Soto will get next summer but at the same time people expecting him to not be among the best paid players in the league are living in la la land big time. And the people who expect to get a similar player than Vlad in return in a trade are also dreaming big time. I'd try to sign him and would retool the rest of the team. He's young enough that the Jays can retool with him as the main piece.

And also please keep Varsho as a center field next season and keep him 2nd in the batting order. Yeah he's not getting on base often but i think as a 2nd batter he can exploit his all around game more. He's not a 4th or 5th batter imo. And having him in the bottom of the lineup is kind of a waste. He's got some speed, some power and batting behind vlad will give him better pitches to hit ans he got the tools to exploit that.

One of the big problem moving forward will be Springer. He looks done honestly and since the Jays have an internal cap spending 20 millions on 80 OPS+ is ludicrous.
 
LaP

LaP

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trellaine201 said:
IMO he should be hitting 30HR/100RBI for that kinda money or at least very close to those numbers every year. :)
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He has been pretty much all years honestly outside of his first two seasons where he was very young and last year.

Career average over 162 games

Vlad : 34 2B, 32 HR, 101 RBIs, 68 BB, 110 SO, 286 AVG, 361 OBP, 136 OPS+
Soto : 31 2B, 35 HR, 103 RBIs, 134 BB, 119 SO, 287 AVG, 423 OBP, 161 OPS+
 
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TheMadHatTrick

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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The Jays have to make a big decision this offseason: either extend Vladdy or trade him at peak value for a Juan-Soto-like haul.

Padres traded 1 year and 7.5+ WAR of Soto plus 2 years and 0.5+ WAR this year of Grisham for 9 WAR this year and 16 years of control.

King 3.1 WAR (2 years)
Vasquez 0.6 WAR (6 years)
*Thorpe* traded with Zavala for Dylan Cease 3.6 WAR (2 years)
Higashioka 1.4 WAR (FA)
Brito 0.3 WAR (6 years)
 
Eyedea

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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Toronto, Ontario
TheMadHatTrick said:
The Jays have to make a big decision this offseason: either extend Vladdy or trade him at peak value for a Juan-Soto-like haul.

Padres traded 1 year and 7.5+ WAR of Soto plus 2 years and 0.5+ WAR this year of Grisham for 9 WAR this year and 16 years of control.

King 3.1 WAR (2 years)
Vasquez 0.6 WAR (6 years)
*Thorpe* traded with Zavala for Dylan Cease 3.6 WAR (2 years)
Higashioka 1.4 WAR (FA)
Brito 0.3 WAR (6 years)
Click to expand...

If only he peaked a year earlier to get an even better Juan Soto like haul!

But honestly I’d hate to see them move him especially since he wants to be here.
 
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Bjindaho

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Jun 12, 2006
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FWIW, all-time highest position player WAR for the Jays:
www.fangraphs.com

Major League Leaderboards - 1977 to 2024 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com www.fangraphs.com

Bo is 18 and Vlad is 19. Teo (24), Springer (27), Jansen (28) and Kirk (30) are all top 30 of all time.

Gausman is 14 on the pitching side.

That's 6 of the 30 most valuable position players in franchise history (with the highest contract of the bunch being Springer and all having pre-arb years making virtually nothing while being highly productive).

Gausman makes good money, but has been dominant (to put his dominance in perspective, the only guys who are really close or better on WAR/162 are guys like Halladay, Clemens, Henke, and Ward. A note about pitching is that Manoah (40th) and Romano (57th) are pre-arb pitchers that are on the list.

The biggest issue with this period has been the colossal misallocation of free agent money outside of Springer. People are complaining about him having a rough year but that ignores that George was very good for a few years and even with a rough start, he's still only slightly below average.

We got one great year out of Semien and one great year out of KK, then everything else has been average or below.
 
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Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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canucksfan said:
RJ Schreck, the guy they got in return for Turner has been doing really well with New Hampshire so far. Small sample size though.
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It's one of those trades where if you get anything at all out of him it's a huge win. All the scouting reports seem to talk about his contact ability and lack of power, but he's up to 14 homers this year with a .200+ ISO. Obviously he was old for A+, but he's off to a good start in New Hampshire.

They have a ton of guys (both from the deadline trades and just in the system in general) whose offensive performance is miles ahead of the scouting reports. Hopefully they can hit on a few of them.
 
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aingefan

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Feb 27, 2008
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canucksfan said:
RJ Schreck, the guy they got in return for Turner has been doing really well with New Hampshire so far. Small sample size though.
Click to expand...
Deadline acquisitions Shreck, McAdoo and Penango all doing well at AA. Rivera, not so much.
In fact, no idea why the Jays assigned Rivera there given he wasn’t even close to hitting in AA for the cubbies. Seems some A+ experience and success mighta been a good idea.
 
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