Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

[metafour]

For a 32 year old reliever who's not among the elite at his position (62nd in reliever WAR, which is below Yimi Garcia), sure.

Lesko is only 20 and has elite stuff, and as you said the pedigree. Again, as you said, this is the kind of player the Rays acquire and turn into a beast.

Bush may not be anything but I liked him at the draft so I believe the speed and bat to ball ability are intriguing. He's also 22, not 23, and a 110 wrc+ is above league average. Horwitz was 23 when he reached A+.

Bush actually made it to AA last year as a 21 year old and had a 149 wrc+, albeit only over 8 games. Not sure why they dropped him a level to start 2024, but considering he was drafted just last year writing him off as a prospect seems a tad premature.

Bush is 22 years and 9 months old: effectively almost 23.
Lesko is 20 years and nearly 11 months old (10 months, 21 days): effectively 21.

The big difference is that Adam has 2 more years of control, whereas Garcia is a rental. Adam isn't a "pop-up" guy either; he posted a 1.3 WAR season two years ago (better than any season Yimi Garcia has had). Last year was a down season for him due to a spike in HR-rate, but it has dropped back down to his 2022 levels this year.

Jonatan Clase is actually 9 months younger than Bush, and he has the same wRC+ (111) in AAA...so two whole levels higher. He also has louder tools than Bush does (faster, more power).

I don't understand dogging the Jays for allegedly acquiring "4th outfielders", and then turning around to hype up the Rays acquiring a 23 year old OF who hits for literally zero power? Homer Bush has a .075 ISO in A+ ball this season. Last season wasn't any different either.

Also, despite Lesko having "elite stuff", he is "only" striking out 10.2/9 in A+ ball. He really isn't even overpowering hitters in the usual sense that one of these "elite stuff, zero control" pitchers tend to do in the lower minors. For a guy with an apparent 70 changeup, 60 fastball, 60 breaking ball (or whatever absurd grades he had), you would expect even more strikeouts even with him having no control. The guy legit looks like ass: he somehow even gets rocked for HR's.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Bush is 22 years and 9 months old: effectively almost 23.
Lesko is 20 years and nearly 11 months old (10 months, 21 days): effectively 21.

Great, so you were factually incorrect. Glad we agree.

You act like Bush is some old prospect when he was just drafted last year, and like I said, he already made it as high as AA in his draft year. He's age appropriate for his level right now. Horwitz was 23 when he reached A+. Barger was 22.

Minors Have Gotten Younger And Older After Re-Organization

When it comes to the average age of players at different levels, the players in Low-A are younger than they were before the minors were reorganized. Pitchers in Triple-A and Double-A are older than they were under the old system.

www.baseballamerica.com

Jonatan Clase is actually 9 months younger than Bush, and he has the same wRC+ (111) in AAA...so two whole levels higher. He also has louder tools than Bush does (faster, more power).

Oh wow, 9 months! You don't say? He's also been in the organization for 6 years. I'd expect him to be slightly ahead of a 3rd rounder who was picked just a year ago. Not to take anything away from Clase, who's interesting, but his 111 wrc+ is in the context of the hitter friendly PCL. Last year in the hitter neutral Texas League, his wrc+ was 94. Bush's was 149 in the same league, albeit in a much smaller sample.

As for "louder" tools. Clase and Bush have the exact same speed grade (70), and his power grade is 45 vs 40 for Bush. Conversely, Bush's hit tool is projected by MLB.com at 50 vs 45 for Clase, his arm is 50 vs 40 and defense in center 55 vs 50.

I don't understand dogging the Jays for allegedly acquiring "4th outfielders", and then turning around to hype up the Rays acquiring a 23 year old OF who hits for literally zero power? Homer Bush has a .075 ISO in A+ ball this season. Last season wasn't any different either.

Good thing I never did that.

 

[MS]

The '4th OF at best' stuff on Clase is weird.

He has power and tons of speed, takes walks, and has reached AAA (and MLB) at a very young age. Like, he reached MLB this April at age 21 and is the same age as the 2024 NCAA draft picks.

The only real concern is the swing-and-miss, but his K% rates and batting average have dramatically improved in AAA from what they were in AA last year so the trends there are really positive.

This is a good prospect and I struggle to see why the upside is considered so limited. People are talking like he's 25 and was hitting 5 HR/year in the minors.

 

[metafour]

This is a good prospect and I struggle to see why the upside is considered so limited. People are talking like he's 25 and was hitting 5 HR/year in the minors.

We're at the point where everyone is so dejected about the FO, and thus every move or non-move is hyper-dramatized negatively.

Even with the Jansen deal they landed a kid that just turned 20 who was a top draft pick/signing just two years ago out of HS, is hitting in A+ (119 wRC+) with power who draws walks and doesn't strike out at an alarming rate. He was also a pitching prospect out of HS so he presumably has arm strength as well. This is a legitimate developmental package at 3B.

They even got a RHP lottery ticket who throws mid 90's as a 19 year old. Its legit arm talent.

For half a season of a 0.6 WAR catcher who hasn't hit at all in two straight months and is going to be the backup in Boston? This is supposed to be a bad trade?

 

[phillipmike]

Cubs getting Paredes without giving up a top 25 prospect is a huge win for them.

Johnson and Bigge are good but not that good to get one of the best 3B with control.

 

[Discoverer]

Cubs getting Paredes without giving up a top 25 prospect is a huge win for them.

Johnson and Bigge are good but not that good to get one of the best 3B with control.

Morel is a pretty huge part of the return.

 

[phillipmike]

Morel is a pretty huge part of the return.

25 year old averaging 1.1 WAR over 162 with a -0.1 WAR this season seems like a flier throw in to me for a guy like Paredes. Not to mention his defense isnt any good.

But knowing the Rays, they make him into the next Yandy/Paredes.

 

[phillipmike]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1817637423469166664

Jansen told McGuire to beat it. I would have taken him back on the team in the Jansen deal. Lefty bat and some familiarity with pitchers from 2021 and 2022 spring training.

 

[Eyedea]

Feels like a buyer’s market so far tbh. Not to say that the Jays trades have been trash, but overall packages have been light. Maybe it’s just the Rays because Arozarena with 2 more years of control and Eflin with another felt like they could’ve commanded better headliners.

 

[Discoverer]

25 year old averaging 1.1 WAR over 162 with a -0.1 WAR this season seems like a flier throw in to me for a guy like Paredes. Not to mention his defense isnt any good.

But knowing the Rays, they make him into the next Yandy/Paredes.

He's a young guy who's proven he can hit major league pitching (108 wRC+ in 2022, 119 last year, and despite just a 93 this year, his xwOBA is in line with last year).

He's a garbage defender, particularly at 3B (where he's played the most), but I think he's shown enough with the bat to have pretty good value still.

 

[dredeye]

None of these moves move the needle for us at all in 2025 or beyond. If one of these prospects becomes a bench player that would be a success.

Little early for that statement my friend. Aside from Garcia we haven’t exactly moved barn burners either. You hope a couple turn into something

 

[MK78]

If they never play for the Jays, they are just be trade pieces for future moves.

 

[Discoverer]

Little early for that statement my friend. Aside from Garcia we haven’t exactly moved barn burners either. You hope a couple turn into something

Not to mention Pearson's the only one who was still under control for 2025. So no, they haven't made the team much better for next year, but Garcia and Jansen are free agents anyway, so it's not like they've taken a step back for 2025 either.

 

[dredeye]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1817637423469166664

Jansen told McGuire to beat it. I would have taken him back on the team in the Jansen deal. Lefty bat and some familiarity with pitchers from 2021 and 2022 spring training.

Would have been funny to get him back in a Jansen. If you told me he was included I’d think you were yanking my chains

 

[Dr.Funk]

Sign. Him.

 

[MS]

Sign. Him.

They’ve probably cost themselves $50 million by not getting it done last offseason the way he’s blown up now.

 

[Woodman19]

There is no reason to rush Extensions too early into the 6 years of Arb control of you could wind up in an ugly situation if a player gets hurt or declines early.

 

[metafour]

They’ve probably cost themselves $50 million by not getting it done last offseason the way he’s blown up now.

He comes from money, why would he sign a long-term deal at a discount coming off his worst ever season last offseason, when he had two more full seasons to recoup his value?

Him and Bo aren't guys who came from nothing that you can maybe swindle into a long-term deal "to get paid now" which ends up being team-friendly in respect to what they would get had they held out for the free market. It is very obvious that both are willing to risk going into free agency and have priced themselves under that basis.

This is going to be a dicey decision either way. The facts are this: Pujols and Votto are the only two 1B/DH players who have received 10+ year contracts in MLB history. Both were much older than Vlad will be when they signed their deals, but both were also considerably more accomplished/proven hitters (Pujols had enough career WAR to guarantee a HOF induction before he even signed with the Angels).

A 10+ year deal for Vlad at the AAV he is holding out for only makes any sense if he maintains his current level of hitter. He isn't worth it if he drops back down to a 120-130 wRC+ hitter. And that is the scary part: he now has 2 elite seasons out of 6 seasons total. So are you signing an elite hitter who has finally figured it out, or are you signing a guy who is going to break again at some point? He hasn't shown to be a hitter who has a consistent swing. He has no defensive or baserunning value (he is way negative in both) so you need to be dead certain on his bat. And this is why 1B/DH types don't get these 10+ year contracts.

 

[Discoverer]

They’ve probably cost themselves $50 million by not getting it done last offseason the way he’s blown up now.

This implies that Vlad would have been willing to sign a reasonable deal coming off a disappointing season. I suspect any contract he would have agreed to would have looked like a MASSIVE overpay.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I’m not really disappointed In the moves so far. I think the Jansen deal was pretty meh, but other than that I don’t think there is much to complain about as far as getting the right value back.

I am a bit disappointed that it is Atkins pulling the trigger here, I’m surprised he’s allowed to make moves. I don’t think Shapiro is going to let him go this offseason either. Seems that he will sink or swim with his guy. That can be seen as a positive or negative depending or how you view it. I’d like to see him axed, but whatever.

 

[Puckstuff]

Damn, I would have loved Parades for next season as part of a re-tool. He has control, plays 3B and can bat in the middle of the lineup.

 

[shaner8989]

Vladdy was f***ing garbage most of the season when we needed him.

He’s been great since the jays have been a bottom feeder and had nothing to play for.

Always question players who are good when games don’t matter when that same player sucks when games do matter

 

[habamillions]

Vladdy was f***ing garbage most of the season when we needed him.

He’s been great since the jays have been a bottom feeder and had nothing to play for.

Always question players who are good when games don’t matter when that same player sucks when games do matter

Look no further then the postseason

 

[Eyedea]

Vladdy was f***ing garbage most of the season when we needed him.

He’s been great since the jays have been a bottom feeder and had nothing to play for.

Always question players who are good when games don’t matter when that same player sucks when games do matter

Outside of an inconsistent first month of the year where he performed at basically a league average rate… he’s been top 10 since.

 

[Eyedea]

Look no further then the postseason

Not sure 25 PAs over 3 years can really tell us much.