2024 Salary Cap and Beyond

[majormajor]

One trade I can’t shake in my head as a possibility, even if I wouldn’t do it personally:

Assuming Provorov walks in UFA, we sign Fabbro, and assuming we don’t get Gavrikov back or any other like minded top UFA LD, a swap of bad contracts or guys looking for fresh starts.

Severson to Pittsburgh for Ryan Graves.

Severson has 6 years left at around 6.25 mill, Graves has 4 years left at 4.5.

Pittsburgh Is likely going to move off of Erik Karlsson and may need another Rd. Graves has been a disaster there.

Jackets will want to move off of Severson’s contract even if he’s been the better player. Clearly Evason doesn’t trust him. May have to attach a pick or something else to offset the 2 additional years and lower salary.

Jackets work the market and try to find a second pair RD at minimum to play with Mateychuk.

Werenski-Fabbro/other RD
Mateychuk-other RD/Fabbro
Graves-Gudbranson
Christiansen

A middling player who is overpaid is unfortunate, but a bad player with a big contract is much worse than that. And I think Graves is closer to that than Severson.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

A middling player who is overpaid is unfortunate, but a bad player with a big contract is much worse than that. And I think Graves is closer to that than Severson.

Just feels like the type of move that could happen. Not that I agree with it

 

[majormajor]

Just feels like the type of move that could happen. Not that I agree with it

I feel that too - we've got a player with 6 years left and our coach is doing what he can to force the player off the team. It's the sort of situation where you get backed in to a bad trade.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

A middling player who is overpaid is unfortunate, but a bad player with a big contract is much worse than that. And I think Graves is closer to that than Severson.

we're only talking about the two bad options, which are "pay severson to barely play" and "move severson for someone else's bad contract" – the latter of which is preferable to me depending on the contract – but the third (and best) option is to figure out a way to make severson valuable here.

if the jackets could get gavrikov, a gavrikov-severson second pair could actually be sick. they're both great NZ defenders. severson's offensive zone playmaking is genuinely good, and he's great at keeping the puck in the OZ. in theory, it's the kind of pair that could really tilt the ice.

they could then let mateychuk lean into his puck-moving and activating style on a third pair and get him a stay-at-home PK specialist partner (i.e. a matt dumba type).

but obviously the two "ifs" here are 1) if they sign gavrikov (they should try regardless) and 2) if evason will actually trust severson… which he won't. so it's all a moot point.

 

[Xoggz22]

Like @CBJWerenski8 I keep thinking about the Severson situation. I don't think he's as bad as he's been vilified here. To be clear, I'm not a fan and I'm very aware he's a sunk cost, but I still think there is a value curve associated with sunk costs and, for me, he doesn't meet the mustard. For me... I see the Blackhawks as an option for a move. I took a look at their roster and depth chart and OMG are they in terrible shape for a while. Certainly some good young players, and I'm sure they may want different vets on shorter deals, but when it comes to the Cap world, I just keep thinking they are an option to take on the full salary.

May not be likely, but the young RD they have would allow him to play in their top 6 and let a guy like Rinzel play in the minors for a bit. Connor Murphy has one year left and Levshunov is just starting out. Again, I know I'm wishing here, but that's something I could see happening - much like Laine - but with less free give-away.

 

[majormajor]

Like @CBJWerenski8 I keep thinking about the Severson situation. I don't think he's as bad as he's been vilified here. To be clear, I'm not a fan and I'm very aware he's a sunk cost, but I still think there is a value curve associated with sunk costs and, for me, he doesn't meet the mustard. For me... I see the Blackhawks as an option for a move. I took a look at their roster and depth chart and OMG are they in terrible shape for a while. Certainly some good young players, and I'm sure they may want different vets on shorter deals, but when it comes to the Cap world, I just keep thinking they are an option to take on the full salary.

May not be likely, but the young RD they have would allow him to play in their top 6 and let a guy like Rinzel play in the minors for a bit. Connor Murphy has one year left and Levshunov is just starting out. Again, I know I'm wishing here, but that's something I could see happening - much like Laine - but with less free give-away.

I was thinking Blackhawks as well for a while, but they expect Rinzel and Levshunov to be ready next year, they're not adding any RD. I could sooner see Severson going to Pittsburgh.

 

[stevo61]

I was thinking Blackhawks as well for a while, but they expect Rinzel and Levshunov to be ready next year, they're not adding any RD. I could sooner see Severson going to Pittsburgh.

I was thinking San Jose, that right side has plenty of room.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I was thinking San Jose, that right side has plenty of room.

I was thinking Blackhawks as well for a while, but they expect Rinzel and Levshunov to be ready next year, they're not adding any RD. I could sooner see Severson going to Pittsburgh.

i could see dubas liking severson enough to show interest. especially if he moves one of karlsson/letang first.

some under-the-radar fits for severson:

• carolina - absurdly clean cap sheet + they seem certain to let burns walk. they've had success with frustrating players with good underlying stats. although they do have scott morrow waiting in the wings, but they seem like the kind of outfit that would be open to moving him to improve up front.
• philly – their defensive group is 1) LH-heavy and 2) bad. they were already listening on risto and now that torts is gone i'd be surprised if they held onto him. i wouldn't hate a risto-severson swap but would love to pry one of york or zamula away from them.
• nashville – that defensive group is really bad. severson's definitely an upgrade over barron and blankenburg.
• montreal – thin on the right side (savard's cooked and a pending UFA) and have a lot of options for bad contract swaps (josh anderson both makes sense + would be hilarious)
• seattle – there were rumblings that they wanted to shake up their d-core. they have two RHD firmly entrenched (larsson + montour) but montour played on the left a bunch in florida. could also see them getting him to tilt the ice on a third pair like how he was used in new jersey.
• vancouver – supposedly had interest in him before, might move willander for a forward. would open up a long-term spot
• boston - freed up a lot of cap by moving coyle + carlo, might've burned the bridge with marchand… they're weak on the right side, too.

the really insane one is the islanders.

1. lou lamoriello loves re-acquiring his own guys (he drafted severson)
2. lou also isn't afraid of long-term contracts
3. it sure seems like they're not sold on dobson
4. dobson's going to ask for big money and their cap sheet is already a mess

severson as a backfill for dobson (or, if the jackets wanted to get crazy, part of a package for dobson + a cap dump) doesn't make sense according to conventional logic… but if you use lou lamoriello logic it kind of does?