Prospect Info: 2024 Round 5, #139 Overall - C Max Graham

[My3Sons]

Hopefully in addition to fighting he is willing to cheap shot thr best players on thr other team. That’s a lot more valuable than the fighting.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Hopefully in addition to fighting he is willing to cheap shot thr best players on thr other team. That’s a lot more valuable than the fighting.

Watch the videos, I’ve seen a knee and a couple charges. At this stage he seems like a “I’ll do what coach tells me to do” type player

 

[Team Concept]

I do not like to put down amateur prospects, but at 20 years old Graham is already a borderline non-prospect. I cannot imagine what led the team to draft a double-over-aged forward who scored half-a-point-per-game in the WHL. I cannot imagine a scouting meeting where multiple scouts gave Graham the thumbs up.

I cannot imagine a scouting meeting where Graham was discussed prior to the draft as a possible pick and no one bothered to mention that his likelihood of being drafted was close to zero, and as a double-over-ager the team could have just offered him a tryout in camp as soon as the draft had completed.

I cannot imagine if you asked the Devils Russian scouting -- which almost every year makes great late round picks -- if Graham should be the pick over a Krutov or Kol (both selected by arch-rival Carolina later in the draft), the Devils Russian scouts would not burst out laughing.

I don't know how to explain this pick except in some sort of vacuum where Fitzgerald points to the WHL scout and asks "you haven't had a pick yet andWestern Canadians are tough, give me a big tough forward" and the WHL scout is like, "uhhh, I don't know, the Graham kid can fight".

This pick is pretty damning in several ways, because it's just so, so bad. The Devils clearly need to hire some sort of draft strategist or draft coordinator because there's just no way on earth you can have more than one scout in the room and have them agree that Graham was in the top 50 players available much less the best player available when the Devils took him in the 5th round.

If Graham were 18, it would have simply been a very poor pick. But as a double-over-ager you could have just signed to a tryout a few hours later? It's a symptom of something dreadfully wrong which needs to be fixed.

Spot on analysis and totally agree with every point in here. I absolutely hate it when they draft these overagers. The kid was 20 years old last season. Look at what he did when he was 18. Not overwhelming to say the least.

 

[Camille the Eel]

The point no one is responding to is that it’s as certain as anything draft related can be that we could have signed him 12 hours later without wasting a draft pick on him. He had failed to be drafted in 2 prior drafts.

That being true, we could have swung for the fences to find a Bratt with that pick. Why waste a 5th round pick on a player you can sign undrafted.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Don't know much about him maybe they were hearing otherwise or like something about him so much they took him a lot of picks in round 5 wash out Bratt is not your normal 5th rounder...Give him a shot honestly the kicking down of a prospect just drafted doesn't make any sense...time will tell

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

The point no one is responding to is that it’s as certain as anything draft related can be that we could have signed him 12 hours later without wasting a draft pick on him. He had failed to be drafted in 2 prior drafts.

That being true, we could have swung for the fences to find a Bratt with that pick. Why waste a 5th round pick on a player you can sign undrafted.

i hate to sound like a jerk about this but if it was that obvious, it probably would’ve happened. Safe to say they didn’t think he would stick around til the end of the draft.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

The point no one is responding to is that it’s as certain as anything draft related can be that we could have signed him 12 hours later without wasting a draft pick on him. He had failed to be drafted in 2 prior drafts.

That being true, we could have swung for the fences to find a Bratt with that pick. Why waste a 5th round pick on a player you can sign undrafted.

Why would he sign in NJ over, let’s say, Vancouver or Seattle?

 

[Camille the Eel]

Don't know much about him maybe they were hearing otherwise or like something about him so much they took him a lot of picks in round 5 wash out Bratt is not your normal 5th rounder...Give him a shot honestly the kicking down of a prospect just drafted doesn't make any sense...time will tell

I wasn’t kicking him down. I am kicking down our front office for its drafting in later draft rounds. Don’t waste these picks. I totally agree that you don’t find Bratt’s every day. That’s why you spread a wide net and take a number of high skill players who may develop - in the hope that one or two from each draft do. Or maybe every other draft.

We almost certainly could have signed him undrafted the next day. If this was a one off I wouldn’t be complaining. But this sort of thing characterized our drafting nearly continuously after the first 3 or 4 picks or so.

It shows a systematic weakness in Fitz’s operation.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Why would he sign in NJ over, let’s say, Vancouver or Seattle?

He scored 40 points in 67 games despite being two years older than the next average player on the ice. He lacks any discernible medium-to-high level skill except physicality. We can say the odds of his being drafted were infinitesimal, except that NJ drafted him. I'm not going to argue it anymore because it seems mean-spirited, but it's similar to Baumgartner or Hurtig in the sense it's basically burning a pick for nothing.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I wasn’t kicking him down. I am kicking down our front office for its drafting in later draft rounds. Don’t waste these picks. I totally agree that you don’t find Bratt’s every day. That’s why you spread a wide net and take a number of high skill players who may develop - in the hope that one or two from each draft do. Or maybe every other draft.

We almost certainly could have signed him undrafted the next day. If this was a one off I wouldn’t be complaining. But this sort of thing characterized our drafting nearly continuously after the first 3 or 4 picks or so.

It shows a systematic weakness in Fitz’s operation.

This, exactly.

Poor-drafting teams throw darts at guys they like for superficial reasons (tough or big or ties to the organization or whatever). Smart-drafting teams are not taking chances, they are using the imperfect science of heavy scouting and feasible projection.

Obviously, players in the later rounds come with more questions than the top 10 picks. But if you draft enough kids with elite singular skills or at least projectable skill sets + high intangibles, you will get a few NHL players. That's how you draft a Blake Coleman or Jesper Bratt or Arseni Gritsyuk or whomever.

There is obviously less projection for a 20 year old than an 18 year old. And when a 20 year old is playing at a sub ECHL level it's tough to project them magically transforming into a far better player. There is simply no way a group of scouts sat around the same table in a room and agreed overwhelmingly that Graham was their guy. It's not possible. Same as for Baumgartner or Hurtig. And therein lies the systemic weakness.

We don't know what the true story is and never will. But the idea that Fitzgerald, wanting toughness, pointed to the WHL scout and said something like "who's the toughest SOB in your league?" And the WHL scout said "well, there's this Graham kid who is big and can really drop the gloves." I mean, it sounds absurd but it's still 1,000x more realistic than the idea a room full of scouts discussing this player at length and deciding overwhelmingly they wanted him.

Baumgartner was a small, over-ager who lacked any skill close to projectable to an average NHL level. Hurtig was a large over-ager who lacked any skill close to projectable to an average NHL level. Graham is a large over-ager whose only projectable skill is hitting and fighting other players. There's obviously something going on that needs to be fixed, it's impossible to pinpoint what exactly, but a good guess would be a lack of cohesion.

Following the Graham pick, Carolina picked Justin Poirier, who scored 50 goals in the QMJHL. There's no way a Canadian scout could not know this. Then, Carolina drafted LD Timur Kol, who is 6'3-200, plays great physical defense, handles the puck well and skates well. There is no way our Russian scouting, which has previously identified similar players in Barabosha, Orlov and Karpovich would not be aware of him. Then, Carolina drafted LW Andrey Krutov, a shifty and offensively gifted winger with top-6 upside. There is little chance our Russian scouting was not aware of him. How do we explain taking Graham over these players? I don't know. Maybe the Russian scout was deemed to have already gotten "his guy" on Silayev and now it was other scouts "turns". Maybe a cut-off was set at LD after Silayev which ruled out Kol. Maybe a cut-off was set at 6'0 which ruled out Poirier (5'8) and Krutov (5'10).

Again, we will never know what the true reason was and I will not pretend to. But there's no way a room full of scouts could all watch tape of Kol, Poirier, Krutov and Graham and discuss them and decide Graham was the most likely NHLer. It's just not possible. And therein lies a problem, and this problem needs to be fixed.

 

[None Shall Pass]

There's value in having actual centers in the AHL, too. Sounds like an immediate way to get a young one. We don't have many (Any?) to begin with. And it's a 5th round pick, which is only slightly more than what you'd pay to trade for one anyway.

Sometimes you gotta go for need.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

No

This, exactly.

Poor-drafting teams throw darts at guys they like for superficial reasons (tough or big or ties to the organization or whatever). Smart-drafting teams are not taking chances, they are using the imperfect science of heavy scouting and feasible projection.

Obviously, players in the later rounds come with more questions than the top 10 picks. But if you draft enough kids with elite singular skills or at least projectable skill sets + high intangibles, you will get a few NHL players. That's how you draft a Blake Coleman or Jesper Bratt or Arseni Gritsyuk or whomever.

There is obviously less projection for a 20 year old than an 18 year old. And when a 20 year old is playing at a sub ECHL level it's tough to project them magically transforming into a far better player. There is simply no way a group of scouts sat around the same table in a room and agreed overwhelmingly that Graham was their guy. It's not possible. Same as for Baumgartner or Hurtig. And therein lies the systemic weakness.

We don't know what the true story is and never will. But the idea that Fitzgerald, wanting toughness, pointed to the WHL scout and said something like "who's the toughest SOB in your league?" And the WHL scout said "well, there's this Graham kid who is big and can really drop the gloves." I mean, it sounds absurd but it's still 1,000x more realistic than the idea a room full of scouts discussing this player at length and deciding overwhelmingly they wanted him.

Baumgartner was a small, over-ager who lacked any skill close to projectable to an average NHL level. Hurtig was a large over-ager who lacked any skill close to projectable to an average NHL level. Graham is a large over-ager whose only projectable skill is hitting and fighting other players. There's obviously something going on that needs to be fixed, it's impossible to pinpoint what exactly, but a good guess would be a lack of cohesion.

Following the Graham pick, Carolina picked Justin Poirier, who scored 50 goals in the QMJHL. There's no way a Canadian scout could not know this. Then, Carolina drafted LD Timur Kol, who is 6'3-200, plays great physical defense, handles the puck well and skates well. There is no way our Russian scouting, which has previously identified similar players in Barabosha, Orlov and Karpovich would not be aware of him. Then, Carolina drafted LW Andrey Krutov, a shifty and offensively gifted winger with top-6 upside. There is little chance our Russian scouting was not aware of him. How do we explain taking Graham over these players? I don't know. Maybe the Russian scout was deemed to have already gotten "his guy" on Silayev and now it was other scouts "turns". Maybe a cut-off was set at LD after Silayev which ruled out Kol. Maybe a cut-off was set at 6'0 which ruled out Poirier (5'8) and Krutov (5'10).

Again, we will never know what the true reason was and I will not pretend to. But there's no way a room full of scouts could all watch tape of Kol, Poirier, Krutov and Graham and discuss them and decide Graham was the most likely NHLer. It's just not possible. And therein lies a problem, and this problem needs to be fixed.

that's all fine but maybe after taking a lot of Russian players they wanted guys that would contribute quicker even if it's just Utica in the end....The Devils did great hitting in later rounds past few years with Russian players but we shouldn't act like we know for sure these guys can't or won't contribute in the future or that they would have not been picked by another team....

 

[StevenToddIves]

There's value in having actual centers in the AHL, too. Sounds like an immediate way to get a young one. We don't have many (Any?) to begin with. And it's a 5th round pick, which is only slightly more than what you'd pay to trade for one anyway.

Sometimes you gotta go for need.

This is a good theory with Melovsky, who can become a good 3rd line AHL center.

 

[Triumph]

If Graham plays in Utica this season, and that's a big if, I think he would project as a healthy scratch/4th line energy LW. My guess is that he returns to junior.

 

[forceten]

If Graham plays in Utica this season, and that's a big if, I think he would project as a healthy scratch/4th line energy LW. My guess is that he returns to junior.

Isn't he 20? Can he even play in juniors anymore?

 

[Triumph]

Isn't he 20? Can he even play in juniors anymore?

He is 20 but he is eligible to play in juniors again as an overage player.

 

[JimEIV]

Every single player in the AHL gets healthy scratched based on schedule at some point.

I don't think "healthy scratch" is a good description... If Graham gets 25/30+ AHL games this season that is success.

 

[Goptor]

These picks remind me of Lou picks where you know on day 1 that they will never make it in the NHL.
Their ceiling is providing a locker room presence as a part time AHLer.

Didn't Lou once draft a guy that quit hockey right after the draft?