GDT: 2024 Rookie Tournament

[Cosmix]

Yakemchuk is going to require some time for sure.

Poulin said Yakemchuk is an elite skater! Was he right or wrong?

 

[bert]

You said my post history didn't bear out that I preferred Dobson in 2018 over Tkachuk, when a simple search would have shown that, which leads me to believe you didn't bother or just decided to lie.

Tkachuk was never as bad of a skater as Yakemchuk, not even close. He was a fine skater, and of course it should go without saying that skating is less important in projecting the success of a forward compared to a defenseman. There's very few elite level defensemen in the NHL that don't skate at a noticeably above-average level, but there's plenty of elite forwards that aren't high-end skaters.

It's not a flex that I liked Dobson in 2018, but I'm not exactly losing sleep over "being wrong" about Tkachuk by preferring him, as you love to keep pointing out. Trying to discredit my record by pointing to a single pick I got "wrong" by ending up with a 70-80P RD over a 70-80P power forward is the best you can do, well good luck with that.

This is 100 percent wrong. He was even more sloppy and had worse edgework. Maybe quicker first couple steps but very comparable situations. Was Weber and elite skater, Pronger? No but they were massive with great pucks skills and played with an edge thats the type of D man that Yakemchuk projects to be.

I stand by what I said in regards to your post history about not wanting Tkachuk. Not that you said you wanted Dobson. Which is still a worse pick BTW.

What I am saying is you have a massive bias because of your ego and you cant look at Yakemchuk objectively which your post history proves.

 

[Cosmix]

Defenders will simply say if you look at the odds then your second rounder has a higher chance of not amounting to anything than amounting to something. So it’s all good!

It's not "all good" if your GM trades your 2nd and 3rd round picks for over-the-hill and/or never-have-beens, or gives then away for nothing but "future considerations" or to trade a player to create salary cap/budget room for other players who do not add anything significant to the talent pool.

 

[Cosmix]

Of course. The good far outweighed the bad though. Considering that’s the first look we got at him with the organization and his young age I’d say we can be happy with that.
Like I said before I think he just needs to work on his skating. Like spend 90% of his time on skating the next couple years.

I suppose this also means that Poulin should get better spectacles!

 

[Micklebot]

Okay well in several years we can say good or bad.

But all the people that said this years was good or don’t judge until 2-3 years later…also said the same in 2021. And 2022. It’s always the same.

Its always the same that people preach patience?
People preached patience when we took Tkachuk over Zadina and some fans were freaking out, they preached patience when we took Pinto over Kaliyev and Brink, is that the it's always the same you are referring to?

 

[Cosmix]

I find the comment very odd. Is this what our scouts were telling them? Is this what Poulin thinks? Are some or all of these people blind?

It's hard not to wonder how much this "elite" skating factored into their ranking of him and their selection of him at 7. If they viewed him as merely an okay skater with some warts, would they have had him that high?

It's not so much an issue about what our scouting staff thought; it's more about what Poulin might have been smoking or drinking?

 

[Cosmix]

Based on your list, looking like 4 potential NHL players out of 10 picks if you defer this yrs pick since it's way too early. What do you think the typical success rate is on 2nd round picks?

View attachment 907604

What is the source of this chart Micklebot?

 

[Micklebot]

What is the source of this chart Micklebot?

Dobbers article, but it's consistent with others I've seen

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

 

[Cosmix]

Dobbers article, but it's consistent with others I've seen

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

Thanks Micklebot; I had not seen this one before and it seems generally consistent with others I have seen. It's based on an analysis from seasons 2000-2009.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It's not "all good" if your GM trades your 2nd and 3rd round picks for over-the-hill and/or never-have-beens, or gives then away for nothing but "future considerations" or to trade a player to create salary cap/budget room for other players who do not add anything significant to the talent pool.

Certainly a big part of the problem

But outside of 2020 our first round drafting really hasn’t been that good.
Chabot and white. Logan brown. Tkatchuk. Lassi Thomson. Tyler Boucher.
Looking like 4 guys that can’t play.

 

[bicboi64]

Whatever the league average is of success of 2nd round picks, the Sens have to be above it because we're a small market team that isn't exactly UFA central.

Makes trading 1st's and 2nds even more risky, and its why this current scouting regime needs to go.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

So you've graduated from petty personal attacks to outright slander.

NHL Entry Draft - 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

Dobson Zadina Hughes/Bouchard/Tkachuk/Wahlstrom I'm not against taking Zadina whatsoever, I'm just stating that it wouldn't/shouldn't be viewed as crazy or strange if he went in the 5-9 range. Whoa whoa you said we wouldn’t be taking Dobson at four. Has something changed

forums.hfboards.com

Care to apologize?



Username checks out:

NHL Entry Draft - 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

Dobson Zadina Hughes/Bouchard/Tkachuk/Wahlstrom I'm not against taking Zadina whatsoever, I'm just stating that it wouldn't/shouldn't be viewed as crazy or strange if he went in the 5-9 range. Whoa whoa you said we wouldn’t be taking Dobson at four. Has something changed

forums.hfboards.com

Minimizing your comments on Tkachuk around the draft to "I preferred Dobson" is wildly disingenuous. No one is denying that you were very high on Dobson, but you were very critical of Tkachuk and your criticisms were not only proven wrong, but were called uninformed, by many, at the time.

Very clever retort, though. I wish I thought of that one.

 

[Micklebot]

Thanks Micklebot; I had not seen this one before and it seems generally consistent with others I have seen. It's based on an analysis from seasons 2000-2009.

I ran some numbers on the same dataset (I think I might have gone to 2010 though)

To get a better sense of quality picks, Forwards that played 100+ games and scored at a .35 pts/g played (roughly 30 pts pace), D that played 300+ games (can't really use production with defensive d), and goalies that played 200 (at least a career backup)

22% of 2nd rounders hit as higher impact players (arguably top 9 or long term D/backup goalie), 56% of 1st rounders.

For us in the recent second rounds, that's guys like Pinto, Formenton, maybe Kleven, Ostapchuk, Sogaard, possibly Jarventie but not on the Sens, out of the 10 2nd rounders we picked from 2017, not including 2024 since who knows. We're already at 20% hits on that higher threshold, if any of Kleven Sogaard, Ostapchuk or Jarventie hit, we're ahead of average.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Whatever the league average is of success of 2nd round picks, the Sens have to be above it because we're a small market team that isn't exactly UFA central.

Makes trading 1st's and 2nds even more risky, and its why this current scouting regime needs to go.

I don't know if that is a reasonable expectation, but it should definitely be a strength for the team, and hopefully this GM doesn't give out high picks like candy.

Certainly a big part of the problem

But outside of 2020 our first round drafting really hasn’t been that good.
Chabot and white. Logan brown. Tkatchuk. Lassi Thomson. Tyler Boucher.
Looking like 4 guys that can’t play.

That list is more concerning than the 2nd rounders. That and trading away so many picks seem to be the core of the issue imo.

 

[DylanSensFan]

Poulin said Yakemchuk is an elite skater! Was he right or wrong?

I don't think his skating is the major issue. I think his inability to read the faster plays is. He will need time to catch on. He will need to obviously refine his skating. He will need to learn to simplify his game. He was trying to dictate the game, rather than let it come to him. This is the difference between a prospect and a pro, there ability to see the game.

I suppose this also means that Poulin should get better spectacles!

Yakemchuk's edge work is not a problem. It's his first step and obviously his overall speed. He's kind of like the Mark Stone of defenders.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Minimizing your comments on Tkachuk around the draft to "I preferred Dobson" is wildly disingenuous. No one is denying that you were very high on Dobson, but you were very critical of Tkachuk and your criticisms were not only proven wrong, but were called uninformed, by many, at the time.

Very clever retort, though. I wish I thought of that one.

My criticisms relating to Tkachuk was skepticism about his offensive ceiling. Thought he would peak at around 30-30, which I was pleasantly surprised to be wrong about, as he turned out to be the rare case of a prospect with mediocre production at lower levels developing into an elite offensive contributor in the NHL.

Been wrong before and will be again, but for the record I don't know how many people thought that Tkachuk was going to develop into a PPG powerforward. Doubt the Sens staff even thought that when they took him 4th overall, they were probably just less high on the alternatives.

I'd rather we not be plugging up this thread with talk about how high/low I was on some prospects 6 years ago instead of discussing our prospects and about whether Yakemchuk was the right pick at 7, but alas a certain poster is apparently incapable of only attacking an argument and insists on attacking the person delivering the argument, so here we are.

 

[Masked]

Minimizing your comments on Tkachuk around the draft to "I preferred Dobson" is wildly disingenuous. No one is denying that you were very high on Dobson, but you were very critical of Tkachuk and your criticisms were not only proven wrong, but were called uninformed, by many, at the time.

Very clever retort, though. I wish I thought of that one.

Classic strawman.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Poulin said Yakemchuk is an elite skater! Was he right or wrong?

He was wrong. His lateral and backwards skating is tough to watch right now.

 

[Cosmix]

He was wrong. His lateral and backwards skating is tough to watch right now.

Hopefully the Senators will suggest strongly that Yakemchuk attend "skating school for defensemen" to address his weaknesses.

Does anyone know if such training is available to juniors during their season (i.e., in Calgary) and if the Senators provide support for such training in the off-season?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

He was wrong. His lateral and backwards skating is tough to watch right now.

I didn't watch whole games of the rookie tournament but I found Yakemchuk's skating to be crazy inconsistent. He'd look OK getting around at times and then be borderline ankle skating at others it seemed like. It was wild, IMO. It happened within shifts.

It makes me think a couple of things:
1) He hasn't had a lot of technical skating training.
2) He really needs to work on conditioning and strength. I think some of the poor skating came towards ends of shifts and his technique just broke down when he was tired. That can't happen in the NHL. You'll get burned.

Personally I think those issues can be fixed with hard work and targeted coaching/training with this player. I think he's a bit of a project right now but he showed enough good things to have me intrigued.

None of this surprises me though as guy who goes to several Hitmen games every year. After my first viewing this year I thought he was great. Based solely on the second viewing I wouldn't have taken him in the first round at all. Two more viewings and I landed in between with him. He's not who I would have picked at 7 but he certainly has some promising qualities.

 

[bicboi64]

Hopefully the Senators will suggest strongly that Yakemchuk attend "skating school for defensemen" to address his weaknesses.

Does anyone know if such training is available to juniors during their season (i.e., in Calgary) and if the Senators provide support for such training in the off-season?

Just have Yak train with Sandy. If any of Sanderson's smooth skating rubs off on Yakemchuk, we're in for a treat

 

[HoweHullOrr]

What is the source of this chart Micklebot?

Dobbers article, but it's consistent with others I've seen

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

There was another article called Statistically Speaking NHL Draft Pick Value by Scott Cullen that appeared on the TSN website a few years ago.

 

[Xspyrit]

Good lord, this is nothing but the same stuff repeated.

You unfortunately didn't give me much substance... Ex : your point about Roger, like if he wasn't seen on this board (by most) as a total waste of a pick, not having even received an ELC. The guy is playing USports 3 years after being drafted?

I'm sure some other posters quickly understood that I was not just talking about "missing out on 2nd round picks", but STUPIDLY missing out on picks (my opinion is we did that with Boucher and Roger). That's the nuance. Of course if you're missing out on all points, what am I supposed to do?

We got Perron to replace Tank both of which we got via UFA. Of course it matters how we got them, its evidence that we can and have gotten that type of player via UFA. Tank, Perron, Giroux. all recent UFA pickups. Dadonov was another one that was well regarded even if he didn't work out. So yes, we can find guys to replace Giroux and Perron when they leave, as evidenced by the fact that we've been finding guys. Do I expect us to land a 27 year old UFA? No, but replacing the 35 plus guys that we got as 35 plus UFA shouldn't be impossible.

Nope. Because the point that completely flew over your head is that we will need more "building blocks" to have a decently sized cup contending window. I consider 35+ years old as stop gaps so I discarded them right away.

All the rest is more doom and gloom that we won't find anybody in the next 5 years because well, no explanation, just more fear mongering nonesense, because apparently 27-30 year olds are all over the hill I guess.

Reality is not necessarily doom and gloom, but it could be a challenge that has to be defied. I still have hopes that Staios is the man of the situation

You are posting like you were new to this. You have surely seen studies of prime/peak performance ages for forwards before, no? I mean, I am not inventing anything lol

I have also NEVER said that we won't find anyone, I am simply mentioning that it is a concern over the longer term and that we'll have to put an emphasis on finding future Top-6 talents.

Don't bother replying, I don't have the patience to read pages of you reiterating the same nonsense.

I will do as I wish lmao. It is fun and I still want to explain in case somebody didn't get my POV yet (which should be very clear now)

There is absolutely no non-sense in all this, all perfect valid points. We will absolutely need to develop Top-6 and Top-9 talents, can't expect to be a contender by signing some patching holes UFAs (unless we get 2 quality vets like Giroux!)

Tkachuk (30) - Stutzle (27) - xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx - Pinto (28) - Batherson (31)
Greig (27) - Halliday/Ostapchuk (27/26) - xxxxxxxxx

Not sure why you get so upset about a poster expressing a valid concern.

 

[Xspyrit]

I choose to look at it this way:

Holy shit our core is young, and talented.

Yeah, not a big worry in the short term. I really like what we have although it's disappointing that the Formenton and Norris situation had to happen.

This would rock (assume Norris is back to 2021-22 form) :

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Greig - Stutzle - Giroux
Formenton - Pinto - Perron

Not very many spots up for grabs in the key positions for awhile, and the ones that are available can be relatively easily replaced in UFA. That’s a lot of guys just figuring out the league and abt to take it to another level.

Tkachuk 25 Stutzle 22 Batherson 26
Norris 25 Pinto 23
Greig 22

Sanderson 22 Zub 28
Chabot 27
Kleven 22

* Yakemchuk, Ostapchuk, Halliday, Donovan, Crookshank wil all play in the NHL imo.

Sure there could/should be waaaaaay better and more prospects coming but the reality is the group that will play this year is young, talented, and numerous.

I realize my initial post didn't specify the timeline. I'm talking in 5+ years, the 2029-30 season and forward.

I was not talking about defense so not going to address it.

Norris is a big question mark due to his shoulder injuries

I hope Batherson will be a PPG winger for 10 more years but he'll be 31 y/o then, an age forwards have already started to decline (based on studies). Maybe we're lucky and both Tkachuk and Batherson extend their primes in their 30's

That is why I was saying that we can only count for sure on : Tkachuk 30, Stutzle 27, Pinto 28, Greig 27

Filling the rest of the spots with UFAs won't do it (again, my opinion) so we'll need to find top-6 and even top-9 talents in the draft or by trade. And 5 years go fast, plus drafted prospects need time so this needs to be addressed in the near future.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I was just teasing Poulin. He called Yakemchuk's skating "elite" after the draft, which always stood out as odd. Listen at 6:45.

Poulin: We're very excited about the picks that Don Boyd and his staff have put together

Senators Senior VP Dave Poulin joins JR and Gord to discuss the team's selections in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.

www.tsn.ca

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