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Patriots/NFL 2024 Regular Season: Part II - If the NFL season ended today, the Patriots would have the No. 2 pick in the draft

RoccoF14

RoccoF14

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Terrier said:
www.bostonherald.com

OBF: The Krafts need to own it – the Dynasty in Foxboro is long over

The House of Kraft turned out to be a House of Cards once Tom Brady and Bill Belichick weren’t around to kick anymore.
www.bostonherald.com www.bostonherald.com
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As a Packer fan since my youth (early 70s) I can't help but see a lot of similarities between the current Pats situation, and what Green Bay went through after Lombardi left.

They spent the next 25yrs trying to re-create the Lombardi era by promoting his assistant coaches (Bengston) and hoping they could do the same thing Vince did. When that didn't work, they hired former Lombardi players as head coach (Starr, Gregg) and hoped they could recapture the same magic. All the while they consistently drafted poorly and turned GB into a franchise that no free agent wanted to play for.

It took them 25yrs of absolute shit, before that team finally decided to get with the times and figured out that running the Packer Sweep in 1990 just wasn't working anymore. Nothing changed until they finally figured out that they needed new talent, with a new perspective, who weren't afraid to innovate and cut loose the ghost of Lombardi.

They hired Mike Holmgren (a Bill Walsh guy) and brought in Ron Wolf as GM and finally let the past go. They innovated on offense, focused on drafting well, and rebuilt the culture. They also hired young, innovative coaches (Gruden, Mariucci, Reed).

Its tough for franchises to leave a dynasty behind and chart a new course. Hopefully it won't take the Pats 25 years to figure that out.
 
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ON3M4N

ON3M4N

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BigGoalBrad said:
If we win another game Drake will never get a top WR.

Wish we'd shut him down for the year no reason for him to play again until next season
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I'd argue this is the time to showcase him to help attract some of the FA WR's that'll be hitting the market. I also wouldn't be to worried about a top WR. You'll likely have the opportunity to draft either Travis Hunter or Tetairoa McMillan
 
PeanutButter37

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ON3M4N said:
I'd argue this is the time to showcase him to help attract some of the FA WR's that'll be hitting the market. I also wouldn't be to worried about a top WR. You'll likely have the opportunity to draft either Travis Hunter or Tetairoa McMillan
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Unfortunately, neither of those guys are likely going to be elite #1 WRs in the NFL. Hunter will probably play CB in the NFL with some offense sprinkled in and Tet is great, but not generally considered a top WR (would have been a top 20 pick last year?). Unfortunately for the Patriots, this draft is just not a good draft for top end talent - especially for WR & LT. There's a lot of depth, but we need a few can't miss / elite guys if we're going to be drafting top 5.
 
ON3M4N

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PeanutButter37 said:
Unfortunately, neither of those guys are likely going to be elite #1 WRs in the NFL. Hunter will probably play CB in the NFL with some offense sprinkled in and Tet is great, but not generally considered a top WR (would have been a top 20 pick last year?). Unfortunately for the Patriots, this draft is just not a good draft for top end talent - especially for WR & LT. There's a lot of depth, but we need a few can't miss / elite guys if we're going to be drafting top 5.
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There are very few "can't miss/elite" guys in a given year, and most years that guy doesn't exists. You also can have guys that become #1 WR's. Justin Jefferson was taken at the 5th WR in his class. CeeDee was taken as the 3rd WR in that same class. McLaurin was a 3rd round pick, ASB was a 4th round pick. Higgins was a 2nd round pick. MHJ was the top WR this past season, but he hasn't been the best rookie WR.

You'll have to tell me what you define as elite. I think the word "elite" is thrown around way to much. Brady, Moss, Rice, Sanders, those type of guys are what I consider elite. Guys that are superior compared to their rest of their peers.
 
Smitty93

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ON3M4N said:
Lets take a look at his numbers as the starter. I'm going to take out the Jets game where he was knocked out of the game early because it skews the numbers from an average perspective.

8 GP / 1,853 Yards Passing / 12 TD's / 301 Yards Rushing / 1 Rushing TD

Jayden Daniels through 14 games has 3,045 Yards Passing / 17 TD's / 656 Yards Rushing / 6 TD's

If we took Maye's 8 full starts and average it out over 14 games....

3,243 Yards Passing / 21 TD's / 527 Yards Rushing / 2 TD's

So Maye's passing numbers are actually better than Daniels and his rushing numbers are right there was well.....All that while having one of the worst O-Lines in the NFL and a WR group that is so bad that Pop Douglas is his #1 WR. Meanwhile the #1 WR for Daniels is a guy whose has 1,000 yards in 4 of 5 seasons and will easily top 1,000 yards again this season.
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I think it's totally fair to be happy with Drake's performance, but he statistically hasn't been as good as Daniels. Daniels has half the INT% (1.5 vs 3.2), a higher passer rating (101.2 vs. 88.4), and a higher Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Passing Attempt (6.81 vs. 5.07), which I personally prefer to use to compare QBs.

His efficiency stats are similar to Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, so he's very much in line with the rest of the QB class.
 
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ON3M4N

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Smitty93 said:
I think it's totally fair to be happy with Drake's performance, but he statistically hasn't been as good as Daniels. Daniels has half the INT% (1.5 vs 3.2), a higher passer rating (101.2 vs. 88.4), and a higher Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Passing Attempt (6.81 vs. 5.07), which I personally prefer to use to compare QBs.

His efficiency stats are similar to Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, so he's very much in line with the rest of the QB class.
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How many INT's have been because his receivers poor hands? How many have been at the end of the game when he has to force the ball downfield to try and make something happen? Daniels has a far better line and far better weapons to get the ball to. Maye has the same exact TD% as Daniels. I'm not surprised that Maye as slightly lower ANP/PA seeing as the Patriots O-line is awful and doesn't allow for plays to develop downfield.
 
Smitty93

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ON3M4N said:
How many INT's have been because his receivers poor hands? How many have been at the end of the game when he has to force the ball downfield to try and make something happen? Daniels has a far better line and far better weapons to get the ball to. Maye has the same exact TD% as Daniels. I'm not surprised that Maye as slightly lower ANP/PA seeing as the Patriots O-line is awful and doesn't allow for plays to develop downfield.
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I'm not arguing that he hasn't been hurt by his surrounding environment. I was specifically addressing your point that his passing numbers are better than Daniels, when that hasn't been the case. I wouldn't consider his ANY/A slightly lower, when he's 27th in the league and Daniels is 12th. Daniels' is 34% higher, I think that's a pretty large difference. I could have added EPA/play, which is 0.17 for Daniels and 0.02 for Maye. He's ahead of Nix (-0.02) and Williams (-0.06) for that. @EverettMike shared the success stat, which I believe he's tied with Daniels for the year at 48.6%.

Now if we want to talk about trends, I think that's probably a different story. I don't have the stats, but I know Daniels hasn't been the same since he was injured, and Maye has done really well the past month, despite the lack of team success.
 
PeanutButter37

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ON3M4N said:
There are very few "can't miss/elite" guys in a given year, and most years that guy doesn't exists. You also can have guys that become #1 WR's. Justin Jefferson was taken at the 5th WR in his class. CeeDee was taken as the 3rd WR in that same class. McLaurin was a 3rd round pick, ASB was a 4th round pick. Higgins was a 2nd round pick. MHJ was the top WR this past season, but he hasn't been the best rookie WR.

You'll have to tell me what you define as elite. I think the word "elite" is thrown around way to much. Brady, Moss, Rice, Sanders, those type of guys are what I consider elite. Guys that are superior compared to their rest of their peers.
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Elite being Nabers / MH3 / Chase projected level talent. MH3 was a consensus high ceiling player and I won't argue that he hasn't lived up to that - risk / reward scenario. Tet would be been a fringe 1st round pick last season - good player with potential to be a #1 WR in the NFL, but far from a high floor / high ceiling pick.

Historically WR isn't a reliable position to draft, so why pick one in the top 5 unless you're _sure_ he's the guy. The guys you listed were drafted later for a reason - the draft is a game of probability and those guys were hits when there were PLENTY of misses in the same classes. The fact that those guys ended up being good to great WRs and were picked later in the draft is just more evidence that you should be able to pick that position later in the draft, unless there's a generational player available (Chase). And yes, you can find any position later in the draft, but the percentages for WR seem to be less of a sure thing in early rounds than other positions.

Last year was a historically strong WR class and the Patriots were in a position to draft a high % player and they tried (again) to outsmart the league. Ladd was there for the taking and they traded back to reach for Polk, who wasn't even a top 10 rated WR in the class. He still has time to be a good WR in the NFL, but it's not looking great so far.
 
Smitty93

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EverettMike said:
I actually don't care about comparisons between any of the rookie QBs, because either your guy's got it or he don't, but one of the things I loved about Maye over Daniels before the draft will forever be true: he's two years younger!
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I remember reading Belichick's position draft evaluation rules years ago, and part of that was QBs having a certain amount of starting experience. It made sense at the time. Drafting a 1-year wonder is always a bit of a gamble. But I think the other side of that probably needed to be a maximum experience rule. When you have guys like Daniels, Nix, and Penix, who were all 4/5 year starters, how much better can they really get?

I'd be curious to dig into how college starts correspond to NFL success and growth, specifically in the modern game. If that experienced college starter isn't good immediately, what are the chances they develop into a good player later? Do you see less career improvement from Year 1 to Year 5 from QBs with 4 years of college starts vs. 2?
 
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RoccoF14

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Smitty93 said:
I'm not arguing that he hasn't been hurt by his surrounding environment. I was specifically addressing your point that his passing numbers are better than Daniels, when that hasn't been the case. I wouldn't consider his ANY/A slightly lower, when he's 27th in the league and Daniels is 12th. Daniels' is 34% higher, I think that's a pretty large difference. I could have added EPA/play, which is 0.17 for Daniels and 0.02 for Maye. He's ahead of Nix (-0.02) and Williams (-0.06) for that. @EverettMike shared the success stat, which I believe he's tied with Daniels for the year at 48.6%.

Now if we want to talk about trends, I think that's probably a different story. I don't have the stats, but I know Daniels hasn't been the same since he was injured, and Maye has done really well the past month, despite the lack of team success.
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I think the one thing you need to consider when comparing Daniels & Maye's numbers are the amount of meaningful snaps each has taken. By meaningful snaps, I mean plays when the outcome of the game is still in question and opposing defenses aren't playing soft and giving up the shorter yardage plays.

Its one thing to do it when you are up or down a score. Its an entirely different thing when you are behind 23-3, or 31-7 in the 4th quarter.

This is not meant to be a slam on Maye, BTW. I think that kid is legit. I just think he's benefitted from a lot of garbage time yardage. As a guy who's bet on his passing props (and won) for multiple weeks now, I've been following this closely.
 
Smitty93

Smitty93

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RoccoF14 said:
I think the one thing you need to consider when comparing Daniels & Maye's numbers are the amount of meaningful snaps each has taken. By meaningful snaps, I mean plays when the outcome of the game is still in question and opposing defenses aren't playing soft and giving up the shorter yardage plays.

Its one thing to do it when you are up or down a score. Its an entirely different thing when you are behind 23-3, or 31-7 in the 4th quarter.

This is not meant to be a slam on Maye, BTW. I think that kid is legit. I just think he's benefitted from a lot of garbage time yardage. As a guy who's bet on his passing props (and won) for multiple weeks now, I've been following this closely.
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2015 Bortles is my greatest fear with any young QB. Dude won a ton of fantasy leagues that year off pure garbage time stats.

I do think it's fair to say Maye hasn't really had a standout box score performance yet. The Titans play was amazing, but he wasn't great overall that game. He only has 1 win where he played the full game, and they largely won because of the defense. The other three rookies have all had games where their stats jump off the page. The Patriots' last three games are against arguably the two best opponents on their schedule, so it's tough to see that game happening this season.
 
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