Patriots/NFL 2024 Regular Season: Part II - If the NFL season ended today, the Patriots would have the No. 1 pick in the draft

[StreetHawk]

I was curious about this, so started digging into the numbers. Off the initial roster, 19 were new to the team (14 offense/4 defense/1 ST, 8 free agents/11 rookies). Doesn't include injured returning players (Bourne, Strange, Barmore, Takitaki, Mapu). Not sure how that compares to the average team.

That doesn't factor in snaps, so looked into that as well. 22 players played at least 10% of offensive snaps, 11 of them were new to the team. If we're just looking at the primary 11 (or a rough idea of it), it's 5 new players. 26 players played at least 10% of defensive snaps, only 6 of them were new to the team. The primary 11 on defense is a bit more difficult to distinguish. Only 1 of the top 11 in snaps was new, but that's Hawkins, who was really more of a top backup.

All of which is to say, I'm hoping we see that significant change for Year 2 of the new regime, but we didn't exactly see it in Year 1. They lost some major pieces on defense (though that's primarily due to injuries with Barmore and Bentley), but they also got a full year of Gonzalez, which makes the drop off even more stunning.

Teams get 7 draft picks a season. But, typically only the top 5 rounds guys make the 53, while rounds 6-7 are typically assigned to the PS, though some do make the main roster. Add in, there would be a couple of PS guys who can graduate to the main roster, plus UDFA, and free agents you bring in. Even the top clubs, at best would return like 40/53 guys. Might not see much or any change to starters, but the depth behind them would change.

Main point is that players have no reason to tank for the team as a good number won't be back in 2025. Their thinking is do what is best for them and that is to put forth good performance on film. Other teams like seeing guys who are self motivated to play hard regardless of their team's situation.

 

[DKH]

I was curious about this, so started digging into the numbers. Off the initial roster, 19 were new to the team (14 offense/4 defense/1 ST, 8 free agents/11 rookies). Doesn't include injured returning players (Bourne, Strange, Barmore, Takitaki, Mapu). Not sure how that compares to the average team.

That doesn't factor in snaps, so looked into that as well. 22 players played at least 10% of offensive snaps, 11 of them were new to the team. If we're just looking at the primary 11 (or a rough idea of it), it's 5 new players. 26 players played at least 10% of defensive snaps, only 6 of them were new to the team. The primary 11 on defense is a bit more difficult to distinguish. Only 1 of the top 11 in snaps was new, but that's Hawkins, who was really more of a top backup.

All of which is to say, I'm hoping we see that significant change for Year 2 of the new regime, but we didn't exactly see it in Year 1. They lost some major pieces on defense (though that's primarily due to injuries with Barmore and Bentley), but they also got a full year of Gonzalez, which makes the drop off even more stunning.

What’s your solution? Put down the Penske file and tell me what specific person you are bringing in - don’t give me they gotta find someone

I’m not getting rid of a guy because he says burn some cash or didn’t bench Stephenson

the good news for me is I get Vrabel or some punching bag the fans will 90 % hate and want names

 

[Smitty93]

No Juden, no Barmore, no Bentley, no Peppers, Diggar out & on one leg, Godchsux was hurt as well

I’m not budging from this one

I bring him back but if they don’t they better get Jesus Christ or at least Mike Vrabel

People are delusional thinking there is a human out there Patriots fans won’t dislike by Thanksgiving and want fired

They didn't really have Judon last year, so it feels a bit disingenuous to call that a loss. Barmore and Bentley were losses, but they also gained back Gonzalez. They went from 8th in EPA/play to 30th. I don't think the personnel differences are enough to cause that difference.

What’s your solution? Put down the Penske file and tell me what specific person you are bringing in - don’t give me they gotta find someone

I’m not getting rid of a guy because he says burn some cash or didn’t bench Stephenson

the good news for me is I get Vrabel or some punching bag the fans will 90 % hate and want names

If I had one choice, I'd give Ben Johnson a blank check, but I could also give you five other names.

If Vrabel is bringing McDaniels with him, I'd take him. I'd take Flores (who I really thought should have been the Belichick successor years ago before he went to Miami). I'd be fine with Joe Brady and tell him to treat Maye like Josh Allen. I wanted Bobby Slowik last year as a second option behind Ben Johnson. He hasn't been as good this year, but would still take him. Liam Coen should be a consideration.

 

[DKH]

They had some pretty major injuries last year.

Their interior D was gutted

Both years wins

This year
Joe Burrow
Caleb Williams
Aaron Rodgers

Last year
Zach Wilson bust
Mitch Trubinsky bust
Russell Wilson Denver bust

 

[EverettMike]

Their interior D was gutted

Both years wins

This year
Joe Burrow
Caleb Williams
Aaron Rodgers

Last year
Zach Wilson bust
Mitch Trubinsky bust
Russell Wilson Denver bust

Yeah, and last year they had one of the worst QBs (and kickers!) in the league starting every game. Yet this year they're worse in every way across the board on both sides of the ball.

 

[DKH]

Sam Howell, Danny Devito, and Gardner Minchow beat the Patriots in consecutive weeks

But they did beat

Zach Wilson - cut
Trubinsky - cut
Russell Wilson- cut, banished, bought out

Whoopie !!!!!

Yeah, and last year they had one of the worst QBs (and kickers!) in the league starting every game. Yet this year they're worse in every way across the board on both sides of the ball.

Belichick left a note on the table

‘Jerod I know I didn’t talk to you all year because I’m petty but I left you a shit roster’

 

[KOZ37]

Sam Howell, Danny Devito, and Gardner Minchow beat the Patriots in consecutive weeks

But they did beat

Zach Wilson - cut
Trubinsky - cut
Russell Wilson- cut, banished, bought out

Whoopie !!!!!

So what you are saying is this is Trubiskys revenge game.......I see you

 

[DKH]

So what you are saying is this is Trubiskys revenge game.......I see you

Actually it was Gardner Minschew, Mike Devito I think, and Sam Howell that beat Belichick vaunted D

Devito the guy who lives with parents ?

 

[rfournier103]

Per Bert Breer this morning, it’s well known in NFL circles that the Patriots & Bengals are the two teams who spend the least on football operations (analytics, sports science etc). It’s about time the Kraft family starts taking heat from this fanbase for this teams failures. Add that to the news last summer the Patriots player facilities were rated near the bottom of the league.

They haven’t won a playoff game since 2018.

There isn’t nearly enough attention given to this. Not even close.

Good post.

 

[DKH]

This just in

100% of the 91% of fans voting to fire Mayo didn’t know Belichick last year beat 3 guys cut Zach Wilson, Russell Wilson, and Mitch Trubinsky

 

[bbfan419]

Per Bert Breer this morning, it’s well known in NFL circles that the Patriots & Bengals are the two teams who spend the least on football operations (analytics, sports science etc). It’s about time the Kraft family starts taking heat from this fanbase for this teams failures. Add that to the news last summer the Patriots player facilities were rated near the bottom of the league.

They haven’t won a playoff game since 2018.

Stop buying tickets, that is always the thing that gets attention of ownership.

 

[EverettMike]

Sam Howell, Danny Devito, and Gardner Minchow beat the Patriots in consecutive weeks

But they did beat

Zach Wilson - cut
Trubinsky - cut
Russell Wilson- cut, banished, bought out

Whoopie !!!!!


Belichick left a note on the table

‘Jerod I know I didn’t talk to you all year because I’m petty but I left you a shit roster’

Oh c'mon, you've heard the reports about Mayo's behavior last year. I know you. You wouldn't have put up with that shit.

Look, there's a genuine defense for bringing him back for a second year. But there's a genuine argument for firing him, too. He's had a really bad season with some major f*** ups.

 

[CDJ]

The problem I have with Mayo isn’t the teams record- I expected this- it’s the dysfunction and his lack of accountability

 

[Therick67]

Per Bert Breer this morning, it’s well known in NFL circles that the Patriots & Bengals are the two teams who spend the least on football operations (analytics, sports science etc). It’s about time the Kraft family starts taking heat from this fanbase for this teams failures. Add that to the news last summer the Patriots player facilities were rated near the bottom of the league.

They haven’t won a playoff game since 2018.

Kraft is running this organization like it's the Michael Scott paper company..

 

[Smitty93]

This has nothing to do with wanting to protect Maye or tanking for the 1st pick, but I'd love to see Joe Milton get some snaps. I think it's important to see where his development is since preseason, when he had serious accuracy issues. They also need to determine if he's capable of being the backup next year, or if they need to bring another QB in.

 

[Seidenbergy]

I've never hated anyone in my life as much as dkh hates bill.

 

[KOZ37]

Actually it was Gardner Minschew, Mike Devito I think, and Sam Howell that beat Belichick vaunted D

Devito the guy who lives with parents ?

That would be New Jerseys own Tommy Devito.

 

[DKH]

That would be New Jerseys own Tommy Devito.

Man I went thru Patriots 23 schedule and see they played all sorts of backups

Allen had an elbow problem and broke his left hand against Patriots (didn’t know this)

This has nothing to do with wanting to protect Maye or tanking for the 1st pick, but I'd love to see Joe Milton get some snaps. I think it's important to see where his development is since preseason, when he had serious accuracy issues. They also need to determine if he's capable of being the backup next year, or if they need to bring another QB in.

I’d pull Maye when Allen is pulled

Insert Milton

 

[DKH]

Oh c'mon, you've heard the reports about Mayo's behavior last year. I know you. You wouldn't have put up with that shit.

Look, there's a genuine defense for bringing him back for a second year. But there's a genuine argument for firing him, too. He's had a really bad season with some major f*** ups.

I owned one jesery - Mike Vrabel

Give me him or keep Mayo & Hope Dabol fired (not worded right) as the OC

I’m a Dabol guy- Flores as well

But unless Vrabel I give Mayo year 2

 

[EverettMike]

I owned one jesery - Mike Vrabel

Give me him or keep Mayo & Hope Dabol fired (not worded right) as the OC

I’m a Dabol guy- Flores as well

But unless Vrabel I give Mayo year 2

Flores was my dream pick last offseason.

 

[DKH]

Flores was my dream pick last offseason.

I am team Vikings - not Lou level but I’m rooting g for them

NFL playoffs going to be fantastic - I can’t stand KC

Vikings
Bills
Lions

All will be fine with me - I can go back to hating Bills next season

 

[Morris Wanchuk]

I;m all in on the Bills this year, they fans deserve it. Their win vs. KC earlier this year was fun to watch

 

[Johnnyduke]

Looking at the AFC this is as strong a playoff field I can remember. Proven coaches, star QBs...I don't see a single dog of a team going in with a scrub QB. Will give us a chance to see some good football!

I guess NFC looking strong as well. Strongest playoff field in some time.

Good luck to the Patriots in catching up.

 

[smithformeragent]

I;m all in on the Bills this year, they fans deserve it. Their win vs. KC earlier this year was fun to watch

I’d be cool with them winning.

Same with Minnesota.

 

[Johnnyduke]

There isn’t nearly enough attention given to this. Not even close.

Good post.

Which is why we can call Bob cheap and "krafty" (a play on his name not his religion).

He has been cheap. Fact not opinion.