So you convinced yourself that a team, who recently was outside the top 10 in terms of payroll with number in the 180-90m dollar range, is going to get a player who'd cost (close to) 1/3 of that which would be one of the richest contracts in history? Coming from an owner who was basically not present in the premium-market for 6+ years?
Even if the Sox were somehow on record saying they'd want to add payroll and get it to well over 200m, they'd still be miles behind the New York teams. Nobody else but 1 team is getting Soto. This is Judge-redux. Cashman's saying: "Juan, get yourself a nice contract from Cohen or somewhere else, come back to us and we're gonna match it. You will want to stay with us anyway. Why? Because we are the most storied and iconic franchise in us-sports history who haven't been below .500 in like centuries and give you a chance to compete year in, year out. Look in comparison what the laughable Mets and even Red Sox have done over the last 6 years. They weren't even willing to extend their homegrown and beloved MVP-player Betts. What would you possibly want there?"
The truth is: You'd really need to be a diehard Red Sox-fan to make yourself think they are a better destination than at least a half dozen other teams. The last 6 years have done so much damage to this franchise, it's not even funny. They were on top after 2018, had the inside track and could have build something big on that, but willingly punted.
This is the interesting part to me. I look at the post-Brady Patriots who have fallen into such disrepair that it's likely cost them free agents who've chosen other teams when the money is even. Maybe players aren't worried about it because of the team's history, but FSG's actions over the past 5 years make it seem like they're not interested in investing to build a championship team, and that would be red flag to me as a free agent who had other options.
As for Soto, I think if he signs here, it'd be for a few reasons (most of which others have mentioned):
1. They offer the most money. An amount that makes even the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees shudder.
2. He's said that the Red Sox were his favorite team, with Dominicans like Ortiz, Pedro, and Manny, and he's interested in fulfilling a dream to play for his favorite team.
3. He doesn't like living in NYC (eliminating Yankees/Mets).
4. He doesn't want to play 2nd fiddle to Judge or Ohtani, and there's no issue with that here.