2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[coooldude]

TBH I'm not loving all of the Adam Jiříček mocking to us at 14. Defenders alone I'm not sure I'd take him over Emery, Hutson, Mews, Elick, Wallenius. Just too many question marks with his skating and ability to defend.

On the flip side, Carter Yakemchuk feels too good to be true. I don't understand how this guy is constantly mocked outside of the top 10. He's my third favorite defender in the class after Levshunov and Buium. He can try and stickhandle in places where he shouldn't, but I don't fault him for him pushing the boundaries of his creativity. He has a heavy shot from the blueline, some of the best hands in the class, very high end anticipation on both offense and defense, he's an old school physical bully and he has a powerful stride when he gets going.

The most complete defender in this class and he would be the dream pick at 14 for me.

I'm with you, I think Yak goes as high as 3 to ANA, if not that then he could go to OTT, PHI, or even a surprise to BUF.

Buffalo could look to trade back, and that might be our best shot to trade up. I don't think Grier will do it because he seems to like players at 33 as well, but my hope is a trade up to 11 and Yak or in another unlikely dream, Buium.

The far more likely outcome is we walk away with MBN, Chernyshov, very outside shot at Sennecke (but even he might go 5-9). And my outside surprise chance pet theory of Emery at 14 is a total flyer.

At least as Jux said we have a really good RW prospect with what likely falls.

 

[LilLeeroy]

He just won the Hobey Baker...

This take (and you're far from the only one who has it) makes me feel like I'm going insane. Who's the last forward taken No. 1 overall who didn't immediately play in the NHL? Even busts like Slafkovsky and Yakupov played right away and Celebrini is a vastly superior prospect.

Celebrini needs more physical development? Have you seen Connor Bedard?

That's fair, but at the same time none of those guy's dads were one the premier sports physio guys in the world who have gone on record saying they think their son would benefit from another year in development.

 

[Jargon]

That's fair, but at the same time none of those guy's dads were one the premier sports physio guys in the world who have gone on record saying they think their son can't even grow facial hair yet and thinks they'd benefit from another year in development.

I think Grier wants — even sort of NEEDS — one of (ideally both) Celebrini or Smith to play next year. I’m sure Hasso desperately wants that too. The team was unwatchable and the fans need a boost.

I think Grier is going to do his best selling job for both players, i.e. they can manage their playing time to keep them healthy (Carlsson treatment), they’ll surround them with bets from free agency, etc.

I’m sure Hasso will also gladly give both large signing bonuses.

I have a feeling they’ll both end up signing purely because Hasso and Grier will do their very best in convincing them to sign — and surely, the prospect of playing in the NHL together, at the same time, should be exciting for both players.

Also, rookie camp is going to be AMAZING this year, dear god. Talk about what a difference 2 years makes…

 

[LilLeeroy]

TBH I'm not loving all of the Adam Jiříček mocking to us at 14. Defenders alone I'm not sure I'd take him over Emery, Hutson, Mews, Elick, Wallenius. Just too many question marks with his skating and ability to defend.

On the flip side, Carter Yakemchuk feels too good to be true. I don't understand how this guy is constantly mocked outside of the top 10. He's my third favorite defender in the class after Levshunov and Buium. He can try and stickhandle in places where he shouldn't, but I don't fault him for him pushing the boundaries of his creativity. He has a heavy shot from the blueline, some of the best hands in the class, very high end anticipation on both offense and defense, he's an old school physical bully and he has a powerful stride when he gets going.

The most complete defender in this class and he would be the dream pick at 14 for me.

Jiricek was getting top 10 buzz before his injury, and he's also a much better skater than his brother. I'd say his offensive ability is the question mark, and he wasn't having a very good season even before the injury.

Jiricek is a guy who you'd be trusting your scouts on, and hopefully he does well at the combine and interviews well. It'd be really nice if a 6'3 RHD was bpa.

 

[LilLeeroy]

I think Grier wants — even sort of NEEDS — one of (ideally both) Celebrini or Smith to play next year. I’m sure Hasso desperately wants that too. The team was unwatchable and the fans need a boost.

I think Grier is going to do his best selling job for both players, i.e. they can manage their playing time to keep them healthy (Carlsson treatment), they’ll surround them with bets from free agency, etc.

I’m sure Hasso will also gladly give both large signing bonuses.

I have a feeling they’ll both end up signing purely because Hasso and Grier will do their very best in convincing them to sign — and surely, the prospect of playing in the NHL together, at the same time, should be exciting for both players.

Also, rookie camp is going to be AMAZING this year, dear god. Talk about what a difference 2 years makes…

I mean yeah, it'd be a massive loss in revenue for the Sharks both in tickets sales and nationally televised games not having your #1 pick playing for the team.

He should easily qualify for the max performance bonus on this team too where a top 6 role and PP time is guaranteed.

Think Macklin and Rick might be one of the few in a position where they would heavily prioritize development over money though.

 

[Jargon]

I mean yeah, it'd be a massive loss in revenue for the Sharks both in tickets sales and nationally televised games not having your #1 pick playing for the team.

He should easily qualify for the max performance bonus on this team too where a top 6 role and PP time is guaranteed.

Think Macklin and Rick might be one of the few in a position where they would heavily prioritize development over money though.

It’s possible, yeah. I think they’d have to see that the Sharks had a plan to optimize Macklin’s training, health etc.

But you’re right that if there’s one family that would make a decision for development over money, it’s likely them.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Sharks could walk away from this draft with a potential dynasty in hand, if everything breaks just right.

Congrats guys.

 

[cheechoo]

Jiricek was getting top 10 buzz before his injury, and he's also a much better skater than his brother. I'd say his offensive ability is the question mark, and he wasn't having a very good season even before the injury.

Jiricek is a guy who you'd be trusting your scouts on, and hopefully he does well at the combine and interviews well. It'd be really nice if a 6'3 RHD was bpa.

That's fair.

He's definitely a project pick to the maximum. He's just not a very powerful individual and I don't forecast him as a player that projects well to smaller ice. I think his nifty elusive style is benefited by the extra space at his disposal.

He's very young for this class and has a lot physical maturation that he will need to undergo before he's ready to thrive against men.

I have a major issue with his skating stride on a mechanical level. He can get left for dead when he has to go against an attacker 1 on 1. Both his skating and shot are issues that can be traced back to his underdevelopment. Jiříček often looks like he's moving through quicksand on defensive transitions.

Skating is such a complex attribute though because his edgework and change of directions across smaller areas are truly phenomenal and it makes him a weapon in the offensive zone.

I like his compete and I think he has big upside, I just don't trust the scales when weighing his risk vs reward component versus the other talent that should be available at 14.

For me he's a late first / early second round player.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I think Grier wants — even sort of NEEDS — one of (ideally both) Celebrini or Smith to play next year. I’m sure Hasso desperately wants that too. The team was unwatchable and the fans need a boost.

I think Grier is going to do his best selling job for both players, i.e. they can manage their playing time to keep them healthy (Carlsson treatment), they’ll surround them with bets from free agency, etc.

I’m sure Hasso will also gladly give both large signing bonuses.

I have a feeling they’ll both end up signing purely because Hasso and Grier will do their very best in convincing them to sign — and surely, the prospect of playing in the NHL together, at the same time, should be exciting for both players.

Also, rookie camp is going to be AMAZING this year, dear god. Talk about what a difference 2 years makes…

Not that I disagree with any of this, however the max ELC salary and signing bonuses are $950k and $95k respectively.

I’d bet Grier will offer max terms to Smith and Celebrini whether they sign this year or next. My point being the terms of their contracts isn’t likely to inform their decision on whether to stay or go; as they’ll likely be identical either way. That’s not to say the idea of pocketing a cool million next year doesn’t factor in; just that it’ll be a milly and change this year or next, regardless.

 

[Gecklund]

TBH I'm not loving all of the Adam Jiříček mocking to us at 14. Defenders alone I'm not sure I'd take him over Emery, Hutson, Mews, Elick, Wallenius. Just too many question marks with his skating and ability to defend.

On the flip side, Carter Yakemchuk feels too good to be true. I don't understand how this guy is constantly mocked outside of the top 10. He's my third favorite defender in the class after Levshunov and Buium. He can try and stickhandle in places where he shouldn't, but I don't fault him for him pushing the boundaries of his creativity. He has a heavy shot from the blueline, some of the best hands in the class, very high end anticipation on both offense and defense, he's an old school physical bully and he has a powerful stride when he gets going.

The most complete defender in this class and he would be the dream pick at 14 for me.

As someone who has Yakemchuk ranked outside the top 10, i can answer some of that.

To me he’s not good defensively. Borderline liability. He also seems like his IQ is rather low. Like you said he’s very skilled and has physical tools that most don’t but I hate his defensive game (although that can be fixed probably) and I worry about his IQ. Those two things to me drop him like a rock. I’d take him at 14 but if we trade up for him, I wouldn’t love it.

 

[zombie kopitar]

It’s possible, yeah. I think they’d have to see that the Sharks had a plan to optimize Macklin’s training, health etc.

But you’re right that if there’s one family that would make a decision for development over money, it’s likely them.

Yeah that's what his dad said in the presser. But I mean, isn't that what we all should want? I see a lot of benefits of both Smith and Macklin playing college and then coming and finishing out the season once there's been a system established with a new coach. In an unrealistic world one of them transfers and they develop world class chemistry just tearing shit up against college kids lol

But if either comes to the NHL to start next season I think there's a lot of benefits; it's just the wild card of a new coach that could potentially mess up some development that I'm personally concerned about. Players have been stunted in these situations (looking at you Buffalo)

 

[OrrNumber4]

TBH I'm not loving all of the Adam Jiříček mocking to us at 14. Defenders alone I'm not sure I'd take him over Emery, Hutson, Mews, Elick, Wallenius. Just too many question marks with his skating and ability to defend.

On the flip side, Carter Yakemchuk feels too good to be true. I don't understand how this guy is constantly mocked outside of the top 10. He's my third favorite defender in the class after Levshunov and Buium. He can try and stickhandle in places where he shouldn't, but I don't fault him for him pushing the boundaries of his creativity. He has a heavy shot from the blueline, some of the best hands in the class, very high end anticipation on both offense and defense, he's an old school physical bully and he has a powerful stride when he gets going.

The most complete defender in this class and he would be the dream pick at 14 for me.

It seems highly unlikely that the Sharks are going to get their future superstar defenseman at pick #14. I think you go for BPA and then try and get a surer bet elsewhere. Sometimes, what sinks a team is them putting their faith in the wrong player and missing out on other opportunities.

 

[cheechoo]

As someone who has Yakemchuk ranked outside the top 10, i can answer some of that.

To me he’s not good defensively. Borderline liability. He also seems like his IQ is rather low. Like you said he’s very skilled and has physical tools that most don’t but I hate his defensive game (although that can be fixed probably) and I worry about his IQ. Those two things to me drop him like a rock. I’d take him at 14 but if we trade up for him, I wouldn’t love it.

I read the IQ concerns, but I don't see them. To me he's someone that will need to be corralled a bit at a higher level, but his perceptiveness and ability to read the game and make plays to intercept pucks both on offense and defense scream high awareness to me.

He does play a juvenile style and can be prone to bad moments giving the puck away trying to make too many moves, but I don't think he's ever attempting moves that don't make sense, he's just a high action gambler. He feels like the piece of clay I'd most like to put into the hands of a great coach because the sky truly is the limit. But I understand him not being everyone's cup of tea.

I see more IQ concerns when I watch Sam Dickinson who feels like he's constantly reacting slowly to the plays happening around him and running around in his own zone as opposed to Yakemchuk who's constantly identifying high level actions and needing to fine tune his execution.

 

[cheechoo]

Brunicke is another big RHD. Could be a target for #33/#42.

 

[TealManV]

Outside the box idea for moving up from #14:

Grier weaponizes his cap space to move into the top 10. Sounds like Ottawa would very much like to move on from Korpisalo (4 years @ $4m).

So what about:

#7 & Korpisalo
for
#14 & #42

Ottawa clears $4m in cap space, removing an unflattering contract from their ledger. While still adding a quality prospect at #14 and a lotto ticket/trade asset at #42. There’s lots of pressure in that market to take a step forward into the playoffs next season.

I’ve always like Korpi and think he could be a solid add as a 1b type during this transition. Sharks can roll with three goalies for the season and see how it shakes out since all three have some injury concerns/history. They can be a one stop goalie shop for during the season.

Blackwood & Vanecek are entering the final years of their deals so there will be more flexibility next summer.

Could be a creative way to add a Zeev, Zayne, Tij or Yakemchuk to their draft haul. Thoughts?

 

[Gecklund]

I read the IQ concerns, but I don't see them. To me he's someone that will need to be corralled a bit at a higher level, but his perceptiveness and ability to read the game and make plays to intercept pucks both on offense and defense scream high awareness to me.

He does play a juvenile style and can be prone to bad moments giving the puck away trying to make too many moves, but I don't think he's ever attempting moves that don't make sense, he's just a high action gambler. He feels like the piece of clay I'd most like to put into the hands of a great coach because the sky truly is the limit. But I understand him not being everyone's cup of tea.

I see more IQ concerns when I watch Sam Dickinson who feels like he's constantly reacting slowly to the plays happening around him and running around in his own zone as opposed to Yakemchuk who's constantly identifying high level actions and needing to fine tune his execution.

I mean I’ll be honest I don’t have Dickinson that high anymore. My top D are Levshunov, Parekh, Buium, Silayev in that order and the rest of the top 10 is forwards. Celebrini, Catton, Demidov, Helenius, Iginla, Lindstrom (no particular order)

I see what you mean about needing to be corralled but I hate players that need to be corralled because they could be anything from Merkley to DeAngelo to Karlsson. Probably close to the Merkley or DeAngelo. If you’re drafting a player you should never have to take away their best asset.

 

[TheBeard]

I've still never been to Vegas. Fear and loathing mostly. I fear and loathe the desert. I'm not a gambler. I couldn't give a shit about the shows... etc etc

But, goddammit now I want to go be in the money phone pic... (pretty sure that's the pic/tweet you're referencing) although I think it'd be tough to top this parody:
View attachment 868316

As a resident now for 12 years I can sure you Vegas has more than just what you think you know. I hate all that crap too ajd have somehow made a life for myself.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm with you, I think Yak goes as high as 3 to ANA, if not that then he could go to OTT, PHI, or even a surprise to BUF.

Buffalo could look to trade back, and that might be our best shot to trade up. I don't think Grier will do it because he seems to like players at 33 as well, but my hope is a trade up to 11 and Yak or in another unlikely dream, Buium.

The far more likely outcome is we walk away with MBN, Chernyshov, very outside shot at Sennecke (but even he might go 5-9). And my outside surprise chance pet theory of Emery at 14 is a total flyer.

At least as Jux said we have a really good RW prospect with what likely falls.

If Sennecke goes in the top 10, that increases our odds of being able to land one of the top six defensemen in this draft. But no matter how it goes down, the team is going to get a good prospect that they either need positionally or can use as a trade chip. I'm hoping Yakemchuk drops there because he's been consistently in that 10-13 range in a lot of mocks. But if none of the six are there at 14, any of the forwards between Greentree, MBN, Sennecke, Eiserman, Catton, or Helenius would be excellent additions to our prospect pool.

 

[TheBeard]

I have only bought my ticket to the draft so far. I’ll be staying on the strip somewhere and probably get there a day or 2 early.

Cool, when you figure it out lemme know and I’ll DM you my digits.

 

[sampler]

This seems like the year to strongly consider trading up to 10 or 11 overall. The sharks own 33 and 43, so they have capital to move.

It's fairly likely that Buium, Silayev, Levshunov, Perekh, Dickinson, and possible Yak will all be gone by #14. I have no problem grabbing another good forward, but I would prefer to get one of the top D instead if a move becomes doable and not Yak or Jiricek.

I would put Yak far behind the others because his defensive play leaves much to be desired. I watched him in at the Langley event center vs the giants and he sucked defensively. he had two goals and like 4 points, but calgary lost and he was a minus. His -6 was 3rd worst on team among players with 50+ games. Obviously, he has great size and strength and offensive skill, his size allowed him to overpower smaller 16 year olds in the WHL which he cant do at the NHL level. He has snarl too so if his defensive game vastly improves, he could be superstar, so 12th-14th overall is about right for him. Its a big variance pick though as he could be a future #1dman who captains a PP and punishes opponents... OR .... he could be a sieve and never develop the defensive prowess to play at any real pro level. As such, I want a better option two-way option if we can get it.

Seeing as how levshunov, silayev, and Buium are the least likely in my mind to fall, I'd like the sharks to consider targeting Perekh or Dickinson if either slips at all. many mock drafts have one or the other falling out of the top 10. If that happens, it's worth flipping #43 to move up 3-4 spots to #10 or 11 and snatch one of them.

the sharks have an army of very good forward prospects very likely to be good NHLers. Eklund is already getting close to top 6 forward level, Mack and Smith should be top 6 too in a couple years time. Bystedt, Edstrom, and Musty should be top 9 forwards. Haltunnen, Lund, Cardwell, Bordy, and Gushkin all have a chance to crack top 9 as well. Add in Zetterlund and a couple UFA vets and you have a future roster for many years up front.

On D??? Argh! Luca and havelid are very undersized. That doesnt mean they cant make the show, but its hard at 5'9 or 5'10. Krug and Spurgeon show its possible, but it's tough. Muk hasnt shown much top 4 just yet. Thrun either. Pohlcamp is a stretch. Some of those could work out, but none are surefire...

the sharks could really use a grade A prospect on D who can come of age alongside Mack, Smtih, Musty and Co. In fact, they could really use two, and this seems a good year to do it with picks 14, 33, and 43.

According to Central Scouting, among NA skaters, there are ZERO D from #11 to #29. As such, the sharks can likely get another good D with the 33rd pick. Spencer Gill might be a good target there or EJ Emery.

It would be nice if they traded NJ's #43 back to them along with #14 to move to #10, drafted Dickinson and then Gill at #33.

Such a draft would be the most amazing haul. Mack + a 6'2" and 6'4" pair of potential top 4 dmen.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I know this isn't gonna be popular, but if all of the D, Eiserman, and other players we're all targeting at 14 are gone by then and if Toronto comes up offering Marner for Couture (no retention) and 14OA, would you do it?

No.

 

[Sendhelplease]

I don't like the idea of trading up from 14. This seems like the perfect draft to have the 14th pick and just let the draft come to you. The prospect tiers seem to have a tier ending right around 14, just stay put at 14 and take whoever is left from that tier.

 

[Makoshark]

This seems like the year to strongly consider trading up to 10 or 11 overall. The sharks own 33 and 43, so they have capital to move.

It's fairly likely that Buium, Silayev, Levshunov, Perekh, Dickinson, and possible Yak will all be gone by #14. I have no problem grabbing another good forward, but I would prefer to get one of the top D instead if a move becomes doable and not Yak or Jiricek.

I would put Yak far behind the others because his defensive play leaves much to be desired. I watched him in at the Langley event center vs the giants and he sucked defensively. he had two goals and like 4 points, but calgary lost and he was a minus. His -6 was 3rd worst on team among players with 50+ games. Obviously, he has great size and strength and offensive skill, his size allowed him to overpower smaller 16 year olds in the WHL which he cant do at the NHL level. He has snarl too so if his defensive game vastly improves, he could be superstar, so 12th-14th overall is about right for him. Its a big variance pick though as he could be a future #1dman who captains a PP and punishes opponents... OR .... he could be a sieve and never develop the defensive prowess to play at any real pro level. As such, I want a better option two-way option if we can get it.

Seeing as how levshunov, silayev, and Buium are the least likely in my mind to fall, I'd like the sharks to consider targeting Perekh or Dickinson if either slips at all. many mock drafts have one or the other falling out of the top 10. If that happens, it's worth flipping #43 to move up 3-4 spots to #10 or 11 and snatch one of them.

the sharks have an army of very good forward prospects very likely to be good NHLers. Eklund is already getting close to top 6 forward level, Mack and Smith should be top 6 too in a couple years time. Bystedt, Edstrom, and Musty should be top 9 forwards. Haltunnen, Lund, Cardwell, Bordy, and Gushkin all have a chance to crack top 9 as well. Add in Zetterlund and a couple UFA vets and you have a future roster for many years up front.

On D??? Argh! Luca and havelid are very undersized. That doesnt mean they cant make the show, but its hard at 5'9 or 5'10. Krug and Spurgeon show its possible, but it's tough. Muk hasnt shown much top 4 just yet. Thrun either. Pohlcamp is a stretch. Some of those could work out, but none are surefire...

the sharks could really use a grade A prospect on D who can come of age alongside Mack, Smtih, Musty and Co. In fact, they could really use two, and this seems a good year to do it with picks 14, 33, and 43.

According to Central Scouting, among NA skaters, there are ZERO D from #11 to #29. As such, the sharks can likely get another good D with the 33rd pick. Spencer Gill might be a good target there or EJ Emery.

It would be nice if they traded NJ's #43 back to them along with #14 to move to #10, drafted Dickinson and then Gill at #33.

Such a draft would be the most amazing haul. Mack + a 6'2" and 6'4" pair of potential top 4 dmen.

Different eras but Yakemchuck reminds me of Dion Phaneuf in terms of the size, snarl and offensive production and western Canadian corn-fed toughness. Because of the upward-trending forwards I could see him being a trade-up target at 9 or 10 or very luckily available by 14 where a few mocks have him available. He's a project defensively, with reports saying there's been a noticeable improvement over the course of the year. He could have the skating ability and the (still developing) physical package that may be able to help bail him out some miscues that he's bound to have. He may never be as defensively dominant as Phaneuf but could very well provide that package of physicality and offensive profile.

Also if we're doing comparisons- am I the only one who thinks that Celebrini reminds more of Tavares based on size/frame, well-roundedness, scoring & puck protection ability rather than a more-offensively inclined Towes?

 

[cheechoo]

Different eras but Yakemchuck reminds me of Dion Phaneuf in terms of the size, snarl and offensive production and western Canadian corn-fed toughness. Because of the upward-trending forwards I could see him being a trade-up target at 9 or 10 or very luckily available by 14 where a few mocks have him available. He's a project defensively, with reports saying there's been a noticeable improvement over the course of the year. He could have the skating ability and the (still developing) physical package that may be able to help bail him out some miscues that he's bound to have. He may never be as defensively dominant as Phaneuf but could very well provide that package of physicality and offensive profile.

Also if we're doing comparisons- am I the only one who thinks that Celebrini reminds more of Tavares based on size/frame, well-roundedness, scoring & puck protection ability rather than a more-offensively inclined Towes?

Good post.

I agree with the Tavares/Crosby stylistic comparisons over MacKinnon or Toews.

Well rounded, strong on the boards, supercomputer level IQ, 200' centers.

Celebrini has a very diligent defensive game, but it isn't the focal point of his identity the way it is for Jonathan Toews. MacKinnon is physical dominance first and thinking second.

Everytime I think about Macklin I have to pinch myself. What an absurd talent.

 

[matt trick]

We're likely going to have top 5 and 10 picks in each of the next two years, maybe the next 3. I assume we'll have a good opportunity where a d-man is BPA. As it stands now, it's likely that our 5 best assets (Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, Musty, and 14th will be dman). I don't want to reach, but we absolutely should go up and get our guy at 6-12 if he falls. We have the draft capital to do it. Leave the draft with a franchise C and a future 2-4 d-man who fits a need (RHD, size, PMD).

Alternatively use 14th on a winger, and take 2-3 shots at d-man at 33, 45, and 85. I'd honestly prefer to cash in all and go grab one of Silayev/Buium/Parekh/Levshunov.