2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[Juxtaposer]

There's a few scenarios which I'd be excited about (please don't roast me too hard):

Scenario A: 1st overall
Celebrini
Trade 13 +33 for 8ish, take Parekh
Freij or Sahlin Wallenius

Scenario B: not 1st
Levshunov (because I know they wouldn't take Parekh this high)
Trade 13 + 33 for 8ish, take Catton or Lindstrom
Freij or Sahlin Wallenius

Scenario C: f*** it all offense, not 1st
Demidov
Trade 13 +33 for 8ish, take Parekh
Freij or Sahlin Wallenius

Nightmare scenario:
Dickinson/Silayev
Greentree
Fire GMMG

I think Parekh could be available at 13th anyway. Won’t get exposure at the U18 because IIRC Saginaw is the Mem Cup host, purely offensive D who is slightly undersized, “attitude issues” (some real, some uh let’s say ‘dramatized’). I’d rather not trade 13+33 unless it was for Lindstrom/Catton/Buium if any of them fall to ~9ish).

I wasn't solely watching him too much, but he was frustrating Cutter Gauthier all night.

Yup, he clearly has no problem defending big forwards.

I'm still intrigued by Buium but not at 2nd or 3rd overall. That would be insane. Buium's skating isn't remotely on par with Hughes or Makar and I don't rate Morrissey or Fox particularly highly. I don't think anyone is winning a Cup with either of those two as their 1D.

One of the easiest things in the league is to go out and get a scoring winger or offense-only defenseman. When drafting this high you need to get the type of player who's essentially impossible to acquire through other means. Otherwise what was the point of sitting through this terrible season?

Except Buium isn’t an offense-only defenseman, he’s better defensively than any defenseman ranked top-15 outside of Silayev.

I just question your player evaluation if you think that Fox and Morrissey aren’t elite defensemen. I totally get that big RHD and power-centers are rare breeds of player… but you also don’t need to draft them high if you’re good at drafting. The Sharks got Tomas Hertl 17th overall, and I would be extremely shocked if Cayden Lindstrom surpassed his career. And trust me, I’m all about projection—I remember watching Leon Draisaitl in his draft+1 WHL season, thinking about how his skating was so bad I doubted he’d ever make the NHL and learned my lesson. I am not anti-Levshunov or anti-Lindstrom by any means. I just don’t think we should ignore other players because they don’t fit the archetype of what’s ideal.

 

[coooldude]

I won't pretend I've scouted any of these guys but based on size, production and rarity of traits I think Levshunov as a potential top pair two-way right shot dman and Lindstrom as a potential power forward 1C have the highest upside after Mack. Lindstrom's back injury is of course a huge concern and should be studied closely by our medical staff before the draft.

The issue is that while that's the party line, it's not a particularly safe bet. Levshunov has insane potential but he has a lot of concerning and risky decision-making with and without the puck. You can say "he's barely 18, it's teachable" and sure, you can believe the upside, but Buium in comparison is an extremely intelligent player at the same age and league who just won the national championship against a bunch of top-rated prospects and looked like a star (many scouts at least publicly think the smartest in the D class). What if Levshunov ends up as Dion Phaneuf and Buium ends up as Duncan Keith? I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're making it out.

The same is true of Lindstrom. I would be all aboard the Lindstrom train but quite frankly his back injury scares the bejeezus out of me, notoriously hard injury to manage and recover from and with a power forward no less. Are you willing to bet the franchise on a healthy back? if Grier is, I'll have no choice but to trust his judgment, but it gives you pause.

I personally would be concerned if we drafted Demidov, because the only way that's a truly franchise-defining pick is if he becomes a 1st line wing play driver legend ala Kane or Kucherov or Kaprizov. I wouldn't build a franchise around a skill winger and I don't think Grier will either. But you can't deny that he probably has that kind of upside and that will be super exciting to whoever picks him beyond pick #2 or 3.

So yeah... Levshunov, Lindstrom maybe. Buium wouldn't be such a stretch at 3 though and if we went that way I would be stoked because it means the pros who I currently trust, agree. And I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ducks go for Yakemchuk at 3 or 4, to be honest. Same story about his "ability to learn defense" vis a vis Levshunov.

 

[Hodge]

Except Buium isn’t an offense-only defenseman, he’s better defensively than any defenseman ranked top-15 outside of Silayev.

I just question your player evaluation if you think that Fox and Morrissey aren’t elite defensemen. I totally get that big RHD and power-centers are rare breeds of player… but you also don’t need to draft them high if you’re good at drafting. The Sharks got Tomas Hertl 17th overall, and I would be extremely shocked if Cayden Lindstrom surpassed his career. And trust me, I’m all about projection—I remember watching Leon Draisaitl in his draft+1 WHL season, thinking about how his skating was so bad I doubted he’d ever make the NHL and learned my lesson. I am not anti-Levshunov or anti-Lindstrom by any means. I just don’t think we should ignore other players because they don’t fit the archetype of what’s ideal.

I understand Fox's numbers are off the charts but every time I watch him play I come away unimpressed. There's also only one Adam Fox. It's so hard to become an elite defenseman in the NHL without being an elite skater.

Morrissey is actually a pretty great skater himself but was still widely considered overrated and overpaid until last season. I'll be honest that I haven't gone out of my way to watch Jets games in recent years so maybe Morrissey actually is legit now but it took a long time for him to get there.

Demidov and Buium probably are the two "best" players right now after Celebrini but, as you said, the draft is about projecting who's going to be the best 5 years from now and I would take my chances on Levshunov or Lindstrom. They're not far off the other two as is and their tools are much more impressive.

 

[Hodge]

The issue is that while that's the party line, it's not a particularly safe bet. Levshunov has insane potential but he has a lot of concerning and risky decision-making with and without the puck. You can say "he's barely 18, it's teachable" and sure, you can believe the upside, but Buium in comparison is an extremely intelligent player at the same age and league who just won the national championship against a bunch of top-rated prospects and looked like a star (many scouts at least publicly think the smartest in the D class). What if Levshunov ends up as Dion Phaneuf and Buium ends up as Duncan Keith? I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're making it out.

The same is true of Lindstrom. I would be all aboard the Lindstrom train but quite frankly his back injury scares the bejeezus out of me, notoriously hard injury to manage and recover from and with a power forward no less. Are you willing to bet the franchise on a healthy back? if Grier is, I'll have no choice but to trust his judgment, but it gives you pause.

I personally would be concerned if we drafted Demidov, because the only way that's a truly franchise-defining pick is if he becomes a 1st line wing play driver legend ala Kane or Kucherov or Kaprizov. I wouldn't build a franchise around a skill winger and I don't think Grier will either. But you can't deny that he probably has that kind of upside and that will be super exciting to whoever picks him beyond pick #2 or 3.

So yeah... Levshunov, Lindstrom maybe. Buium wouldn't be such a stretch at 3 though and if we went that way I would be stoked because it means the pros who I currently trust, agree. And I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ducks go for Yakemchuk at 3 or 4, to be honest. Same story about his "ability to learn defense" vis a vis Levshunov.

Duncan Keith in his prime was one of the greatest skaters I've ever seen. If Buium could skate like that I would have far less of an issue spending a top three pick on him. No doubt he had an unbelievable season but it's entirely possible this year was his high water mark as a player. Levshunov clearly has a lot more to give and it's not like he didn't have a ridiculously good season in his own right.

If we do go with Buium I'm totally fine with that because I trust Grier and his staff. He just doesn't strike me as a Grier pick at all, especially in the top three.

 

[dmcccdmn]

Last year we had a consensus when it comes to 2-4 picks. What scares me is we don't don't have a consensus when it comes to 2-5 picks, which makes it sucks and scary if you pick 2nd or 3rd overall.

 

[Levie]

Last year we had a consensus when it comes to 2-4 picks. What scares me is we don't don't have a consensus when it comes to 2-5 picks, which makes it sucks and scary if you pick 2nd or 3rd overall.

There wasn't really a consensus last year. Michkov was all over the place.

 

[Friday]

Duncan Keith in his prime was one of the greatest skaters I've ever seen. If Buium could skate like that I would have far less of an issue spending a top three pick on him. No doubt he had an unbelievable season but it's entirely possible this year was his high water mark as a player. Levshunov clearly has a lot more to give and it's not like he didn't have a ridiculously good season in his own right.

If we do go with Buium I'm totally fine with that because I trust Grier and his staff. He just doesn't strike me as a Grier pick at all, especially in the top three.

Levshunov seems to be the clear #2 but I think Buium will be the better player. Too much injury concern with Lindstrom. That's my train of thought at least. Happy im not on scout on this one haha

 

[hohosaregood]

Buium is the same size as or bigger than some of the best defensemen in the world. Fox, Hughes, Makar, Morrissey, etc. If you’ve seen Buium play and don’t see the upside or whatever, but to discount him purely because he’s 6’0” instead of 6’2” is insane. As I recall, you were intrigued by Buium when you thought he was 6’2”.

Isn't Zeev listed at 6'2" like everywhere? Seems like he has good size to grow into. I think just his skating isn't as high end as some of the other guys but he knows how to use his feet well.

 

[Hodge]

Levshunov seems to be the clear #2 but I think Buium will be the better player. Too much injury concern with Lindstrom. That's my train of thought at least. Happy im not on scout on this one haha

Same here, I'm glad I don't have to make the pick. Hopefully all these guys turn out to be studs and it doesn't really matter.

 

[coooldude]

Same here, I'm glad I don't have to make the pick. Hopefully all these guys turn out to be studs and it doesn't really matter.

I am also glad I don't have to make the pick. I'm just hoping for the PIT pick and some luck in how the players fall.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I just question your player evaluation if you think that Fox and Morrissey aren’t elite defensemen. I totally get that big RHD and power-centers are rare breeds of player… but you also don’t need to draft them high if you’re good at drafting. The Sharks got Tomas Hertl 17th overall, and I would be extremely shocked if Cayden Lindstrom surpassed his career. And trust me, I’m all about projection—I remember watching Leon Draisaitl in his draft+1 WHL season, thinking about how his skating was so bad I doubted he’d ever make the NHL and learned my lesson. I am not anti-Levshunov or anti-Lindstrom by any means. I just don’t think we should ignore other players because they don’t fit the archetype of what’s ideal.

As much as I love Hertl he is not a cup winning 1C. His skating is not where it needs to be for him to dominate the game the way a cup winning 1C can.

Lindstrom might not surpass Hertl, but his ceiling is Mackinon. That size and skating combination is too good to ignore. If it weren’t for the injury issues then he would be clear 3rd behind Levshunov. I do have Buium 4th but in a different tier.

 

[coooldude]

As much as I love Hertl he is not a cup winning 1C. His skating is not where it needs to be for him to dominate the game the way a cup winning 1C can.

Lindstrom might not surpass Hertl, but his ceiling is Mackinon. That size and skating combination is too good to ignore. If it weren’t for the injury issues then he would be clear 3rd behind Levshunov. I do have Buium 4th but in a different tier.

Lindstrom definitely has a high ceiling, but I don't think it's MacKinnon. Mac plays a much faster paced, higher-skill, explosive game. Lindstrom models his game off Roope Hintz he says, and that's a pretty great player, and maybe the ceiling is higher but I would say more like an all-star than a Hart/MVP candidate who is one of the best 2-3 players and 2-way centers in the world. I think of Lindstrom more as a Getzlaf-type player with a pretty good shot, big strong body, heavy player, skill too.

 

[Hodge]

Roope Hintz and Tage Thompson are the guys who come to mind for me with Lindstrom. Either one would be a fantastic outcome at 3rd overall.

 

[Juxtaposer]

As much as I love Hertl he is not a cup winning 1C. His skating is not where it needs to be for him to dominate the game the way a cup winning 1C can.

Lindstrom might not surpass Hertl, but his ceiling is Mackinon. That size and skating combination is too good to ignore. If it weren’t for the injury issues then he would be clear 3rd behind Levshunov. I do have Buium 4th but in a different tier.

I strongly disagree that Lindstrom’s ceiling is Mackinnon. He is a strong skater, especially for his size, but he’s nowhere near Mackinnon.

The reason I bring up Hertl is that he did have two seasons (2018 and 2019) where he was good enough to be a Cup-winning #1C provided the cast around him was also Cup-caliber. He was never even an average skater but his size and strength (both upper and lower body) combine with his hands and smarts made him incredibly effective. Hertl’s peak was insane, but unfortunately pretty short.

As mentioned, Hintz would be a great outcome for Lindstrom. And I like Roope Hintz a lot, but he hasn’t been as good as Hertl’s peak.

 

[dmcccdmn]

I just hope that we'll pick 1OA so the decision is safer. The teams that are picking 4th or 5th overall this year might get lucky with their guys that might turn out to be 2nd/3rd best in a redraft.

 

[Gecklund]

Isn't Zeev listed at 6'2" like everywhere? Seems like he has good size to grow into. I think just his skating isn't as high end as some of the other guys but he knows how to use his feet well.

Only place I’ve seen him listed at 6’2” is Denver’s website everyone else is about 6’

 

[sharski]

i was all in on lindstrum, but a back injury scares the shit out of me... more than happy to see him prove me wrong with another team because i won't be able to handle the stress of spending several years of playing the "will he or won't he play this year" game

i know he won't but if he drops to the pens pick then the hell with it, roll the dice

 

[Barrie22]

Only place I’ve seen him listed at 6’2” is Denver’s website everyone else is about 6’

So the one place that would actually have his correct height and weight?

 

[Juxtaposer]

So the one place that would actually have his correct height and weight?

Looking at Buium, I’ll guess his official combine measurement ends up being 6’0.5”. His older brother is much taller so there was some hope/assumption that Zeev might too, but I just don’t think it looks like it.

 

[Barrie22]

Looking at Buium, I’ll guess his official combine measurement ends up being 6’0.5”. His older brother is much taller so there was some hope/assumption that Zeev might too, but I just don’t think it looks like it.

Denver has shai listed at 6'4, zeev at 6'2. Are we really thinking that Denver is actually saying zeev is that much taller then he really is? Especially when there is Zero reason to lie about someones height at this stage of the NHL and way teams look at those things now.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Denver has shai listed at 6'4, zeev at 6'2. Are we really thinking that Denver is actually saying zeev is that much taller then he really is? Especially when there is Zero reason to lie about someones height at this stage of the NHL and way teams look at those things now.

Yes. He’s been listed as 6’2” since the beginning of the season but if you look at WJC content he’s basically the same height as 6’0” Will Smith. I would maybe buy 6’1”, but there’s no chance he’s really 6’2”. I don’t think his brother is 6’4” either, but the point is that there is absolutely a benefit to lying. Being taller helps your draft position. Even if he gets caught at the combine if people have been thinking you’re 6’2” all year, it affects their perception of your ability.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Are we really thinking that Denver is actually saying zeev is that much taller then he really is? Especially when there is Zero reason to lie about someones height at this stage

Considering his height is listed differently throughout a few websites someone is clearly lying. Even if it's not intentional, someone has false information. He definitely doesn't look 6'2 out there tho.

 

[Cas]

Official measurements of height and weight in sports are mere fiction.

 

[Gecklund]

So the one place that would actually have his correct height and weight?

That ain’t right. Sharks website has Hoffman listed as a C so

 

[Barrie22]

That ain’t right. Sharks website has Hoffman listed as a C so

He is listed as a center on every stat site including nhl.com